A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Since when has the local media had any cred on any Sox talk sites?

 

Some of the local media have solid cred IMO: Alex Speier, Chad Finn, Pete Abraham are all excellent. Guys like Cafardo and Bradford are OK. Then there's Shaughnessy and the others that have to be ignored.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, both Ben guys who were acquired through a high draft pick and a more laxed international signing set up.

 

For those who poo-poo'd Espi and Kopech and others as too far away to have any faith in, now want us to suddenly have faith that Groome or some other prospect acquired with lower picks of in a more restricted FA market are going to plug the holes left by a couple or more significant departing free agent vets.

 

I don't think anyone is saying 'have faith' in Groome or those other prospects. It's more like 'have hope' - because there's no other choice, that's what it means to be a fan anyway.

[moonslav59]

Another question that arises is, what could DD have done better than he did? The move that seems to be criticized the most is the Kimbrel trade. So OK, take that one back. Would we be in fantastic shape for the future if he didn't make that move?

 

We'd be in a lot better shape after 2018, when Kimbrel's deal expires.

 

We'd have also had more money to spend along the way, but of course not enough to replace what Kimbrel gave us.

 

Margot might allow us to trade JBJ, or he could be traded now.

 

Many of us were not against trading prospects. I had suggested trading Guerra many times. His stock has fallen immensly since the trade, making the deal look better in hindsight, aloing with the sharp rise in closer contract costs.

 

Pom did poorly in 2016 and great in 2017, while Espi got hurt. That doesn't make the trade a slam dunk success.

 

While I mostly look at rings won as a guide to success (like with the HRam/Sanchez for Beckett/Lowell trade), it's not always really all that fair for the GM.

 

Unless we win a ring next year, the Pom & Kimbrel trades cannot be fully judged until we see what those prospects amount to, and even if they all fail, they'll always be the "what ifs" on who else we might have acquired-- younger players with more years of team control, a starter instead of reliever and countless other permutations.

[moonslav59]

It exists for you, Kimmi. You're certainly entitled to think of it that way, but not everyone is required to think of it that way.

 

Nobody is "requiring" anyone to agree with us. It sounds like some cliff deniers are trying to silence us for not thinking the way you guys do.

 

The condescension and righteousness is running both ways.

[moonslav59]

My opinion of the 'cliff' is that we will have a stretch of 2-4 years where the team will be 'rebuilding' to the extent that they will not be predicted to contend for the postseason. In other words, going into the season, we will know that our chances of postseason play will be slim to none.

 

If we have a playoff contending team on paper going into the season, but fail to make the playoffs, I would not consider that a cliff season.

 

I like that definition better than mine, and in that light, some of Ben's last place finishes would not be considered "cliff" worthy, since a fair amount of people felt we'd compete for the playoffs.

[notin]

Couple questions for you Notin-

Who said anything about anyone wanting DD to be fired?

Who thinks that the current state of our farm system is fine?

 

I am kind of sorry that you might think that I am being condescending if you are talking about me. Maybe I am being but what I would say is that I read these posts carefully. I just choose not to buy all of the embellished ******** that gets thrown around by people who are upset if everybody doesn't agree with them.

 

I was never much of a fan of DD but I absolutely wouldn't fire him now.

 

No one has said its unavoidable and no one has said this is the end. But the mention of the weak farm and that everyone but the elderly will be gone in 3:years seems to anger many.

 

I have said REPEATEDLY there is a lot of time. But that doesn't mean the farm system will fix itself.

 

And we will definitely need it before 2021, which is the much bigger deal. In fact its one big factor keeping the Sox out of the running for Stanton as we speak...

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody is "requiring" anyone to agree with us. It sounds like some cliff deniers are trying to silence us for not thinking the way you guys do.

 

I really didn't mean it that way. Kimmi has stated 'The cliff exists until it doesn't' repeatedly, like a mantra, and it sounded to me like a statement of fact. But she clarified it that it's an opinion.

 

I argue with you and Kimmi and Notin about the Cliff and Ben a lot, but I have as much respect for the opinions of you 3 as anyone's. If I didn't respect your opinions I probably wouldn't argue with you as much.

[moonslav59]

But he did pull the trigger in 2015. Castillo, Hanley, Panda, Porcello extension - over $300 million laid out with those moves. Miley and Masterson. He tried to pull the trigger, but he misfired.

 

Ben certainly made some major blunders. They directly led to our failures in 2014 and 2015- no doubt in my mind. He deserves the blame for that. I'm not one to try and pin anything on Larry- good or bad.

 

What some of us feel is that Ben is not given enough credit for providing a foundation, including an incredibly strong farm (weak on pitching, yes) that enabled DD to acquire strong pitching (Sale, Pom & Kimbrel) and get us back to the playoffs again. Winning two division titles was very nice as well, yet it seems like Ben is given very little credit for those achievements by us being blinded by the 3 last place finishes.

 

Compare the teams and farms Ben started with vs what DD started with. Yes, Ben had a nice rotation, but their years of team control were dwindling, while Beckett was having a riches to rags issue. The farm Ben was given had a few gems, including the meteoric rise from an unheralded Betts.

 

Maybe we have a Betts or two in the system right now, and we don't even know it, but what are the odds?

 

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone is saying 'have faith' in Groome or those other prospects. It's more like 'have hope' - because there's no other choice, that's what it means to be a fan anyway.

 

Isn't this trying to force your idea of what a Sox fan should be like on us?

 

What's the difference?

 

Is it okay for your side to use this type of argument, but those of us who disagree with you are not supposed to ever bring up the possibility of a cliff?

 

Everyone around me think of me as being an optimist. Go back and look at all my pre-season projections here and on the "other site". I almost always over projected our wins. I projected 100 wins last spring. I'me super excited about next year and 2019. I'm pretty optimistic about 2020, because I think Henry will allow us to go way over the luxury tax in 2018 and 2020. (Just my opinion) however, I see some very difficult odds being against us after that. The system has changed since the Theo and Ben eras. We don't look to have high draft picks or easy international pickings going forward. DD does not have a track record of finding the Mookie Betts' of the world with lower round picks and a more open free agent marketplace. Now that the system is more difficult, it's almost impossible for a prgmitist like myself, no matter how optimistic I try to be, to have a lot of hope for 2021 and beyond.

 

That does not mean I am without hope. I have said countless times, I am very happy with our recent draft picks and international free agent signings. The lost year of international signings hurt. The death of Flores hurt, but I have not lost hope. I have not stopped mentioning that hope either, but that hope is not based on any tangible evidence.

 

(BTW, we have been told to have faith that the farm will be rebuilt in time for 2020 or 2021. If it's not Groome or anyone in the system already, how likely is it we draft someone next year that will be ML ready and significant enough to help by the time 2020 or 2021 arrives?)

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't blame Ben for the last place finishes in 2012 or in 2014. But I was not happy at all with the pitching staff he assembled for 2015, especially after letting Lester and Lackey go.

[Bellhorn04]

Isn't this trying to force your idea of what a Sox fan should be like on us?

 

It was a short post prefaced by 'I don't think', I don't see how that can be construed as forcing anything.

[moonslav59]

I was never much of a fan of DD but I absolutely wouldn't fire him now.

 

No one has said its unavoidable and no one has said this is the end. But the mention of the weak farm and that everyone but the elderly will be gone in 3:years seems to anger many.

 

I have said REPEATEDLY there is a lot of time. But that doesn't mean the farm system will fix itself.

 

And we will definitely need it before 2021, which is the much bigger deal. In fact its one big factor keeping the Sox out of the running for Stanton as we speak...

 

I'm far frfom calling for DD's removal, in fact I have said countless times, I am fine with the totality of his moves AND the strategy to shoot for the stars over a 3-4 year period. It's better than the old Marlins and Twins building up for a 1 or two year shot for a ring. A 3-4 year period, actually 5, if we can stay strong in 2020 (2016-2020) is a great job by any GM.

 

I'm thrilled we have such a strong team on paper. I expected more in the playoffs, and I'm extremely hopeful we advance much farther next year, but I'm not going to sugar coat what I feel is a serious day of reckoning that looms on the horizon.

 

Yes, you are right; we have time to do something about it, and we seem to be off to a decent start with our last two drafts and the international signings of Velazquez, Mata, Danny Diaz, Raudes, D Hernandez, and others, however, we are very far away from having a farm that compares to the one DD inherited. the one we have now might even be worse than the one Ben inherited, but I haven't done a comp on that.

 

[a700hitter]

At the end of the 3 year window, without either a previously unseen financial investment or insane luck in developing a currently barren farm, your team will slip into mediocrity

And mediocrity is not a cliff.

[a700hitter]

I really didn't mean it that way. Kimmi has stated 'The cliff exists until it doesn't' repeatedly, like a mantra, and it sounded to me like a statement of fact. But she clarified it that it's an opinion.

 

I argue with you and Kimmi and Notin about the Cliff and Ben a lot, but I have as much respect for the opinions of you 3 as anyone's. If I didn't respect your opinions I probably wouldn't argue with you as much.

The cliff is speculative at best. I'd rather speculate about winning a Championship while in the so-called "window." People started talking about the cliff after getting Chris Sale. If I could physically turn a cartwheel without injuring myself, I would still be doing cartwheels after getting him. Almost immediately "cliff talk" started. It is like getting a cute new puppy full of fun and life and immediately worrying about the day you have to put it down. Edited December 2, 2017 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

All we need to know about Ben's abilities is that since he was fired there have been a ton of GM openings and none have been offered to him. Edited December 2, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

It was a short post prefaced by 'I don't think', I don't see how that can be construed as forcing anything.

 

Good point, but within the context of the near constant "have faith" mantra from those who doubt the cliff is probable, it feels that way.

 

We are being criticized for bringing it up. Yes, bringing up what we feel is the probable reality of our beloved team's future on a board dedicated to discussing the future of our beloved Red Sox.

 

We were told that the value of Espi, Margot, Guerra, kopech, Moncada and other could not be counted on for our future, but have been told over and over by some posters to have faith in the idea that our farm will be rebuilt to the point where we will have significant contributing prospects by 2020. Prospects that rae not even named at this point.

 

We are asked to stop being realistic when being called pessimist.

 

We are accused of bringing the subject up 90% of the time- a gross distortion of reality, and then asked to subject ourselves to a popularity contest poll from other posters to see how much of a minority we might be, of how other posters perceive us.

 

Yet, we are the ones being accused trying to force others to believe what we believe and being overbearing with repetition.

 

The righteousness is clearly running both ways. I'm fine with anyone who disagrees with my analysis of our future probabilities.

 

I realize I mention "the window" quite often when discussing trade opportunities and possible free agent, but I've always had a keen sense of our budget- right or wrong- and how any deal will likely affect the now & the tomorrow.

 

This team is not in a situation we have been in too often. We had a core of young players that all came up near the same time and will all be free agents within a short few years. Couple that with the acquisition of other key players like Kimbrel, Pom, Porcello and Sale who also come up for free agency, and it's hard not to recognize the uniqueness of this future outlook.

 

I may be forgetting past situations like this, but when has a Sox team had this type of talent all come up for free agency within a 3 year period?

Major Minor

after 2018:

Pom

Kimbrel

Kelly

(HRam vesting option)

2019:

Sale

Bogaerts

Porcello

Thornburg

HRam (if not 2018)

Holt

2020:

Betts

Bradley

Vazquez

Smith

Wright

Workman

 

(Note: Arb costs will rise a lot during many of these players final arb year(s):

Betts

Bogey

JBJ

Smith

Vaz

ERod (2021 last arb)

Thornburg

Wright

several others

 

[cp176]

You seem pretty serious about all this stuff Moon. I'm starting to feel sorry for you and whoever you mean when you use the word "we". I'm pretty sure that I shouldn't even be involved in this discussion because it really isn't that big a deal to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Good point, but within the context of the near constant "have faith" mantra from those who doubt the cliff is probable, it feels that way.

 

I do not recall anyone saying 'have faith' as if everything is guaranteed to be jim dandy in 2021. I think this is a distortion.

 

The most common comment I have heard is that we simply don't know what's going to happen between now and then.

[a700hitter]

I do not recall anyone saying 'have faith' as if everything is guaranteed to be jim dandy in 2021. I think this is a distortion.

 

The most common comment I have heard is that we simply don't know what's going to happen between now and then.

"Have faith"? I don't remember anyone saying this. Certainly, it has not been constant. He has a distorted way of interpreting things.

[notin]

And mediocrity is not a cliff.

 

So a third place team is ok? What about a fourth place team?

[a700hitter]

So a third place team is ok? What about a fourth place team?

Winning Baseball is fine. If you are over .500, often you still have a shot at a wild card. That is not a cliff to me.

 

Edit: Maybe other people have a sense of entitlement, but that wouldn't be me unless expecting a $200 million payroll to play .500 and be competitive is considered entitlement.

Edited December 2, 2017 by a700hitter

[dgalehouse]

Some fans are content to have a team that is basically trash as long as they can say " The future looks bright " . And that's okay. That is how they follow and enjoy the game. I get it. Ben Cherington is their patron saint. They miss him. I have no problem with that. I am not a deep thinker or an analytical guru , but it seems to me that baseball has a long season and it is preferable to have a contending team to root for each and every year. I do think the Red Sox have the means to provide that. I leave it to others to worry about the bridge years , cliffs , impending hurricanes and five year plans. So be it.

[notin]

The most common comment I have heard is that we simply don't know what's going to happen between now and then.

 

I've been one of the loudest voices saying that.

 

However there are also immediate ramifications of this weak farm that bother me more...

[cp176]

Some fans are content to have a team that is basically trash as long as they can say " The future looks bright " . And that's okay. That is how they follow and enjoy the game. I get it. Ben Cherington is their patron saint. They miss him. I have no problem with that. I am not a deep thinker or an analytical guru , but it seems to me that baseball has a long season and it is preferable to have a contending team to root for each and every year. I do think the Red Sox have the means to provide that. I leave it to others to worry about the bridge years , cliffs , impending hurricanes and five year plans. So be it.

 

I guess you could say I'm pretty much right with you here. I love the fact that we finally won a World Series or three but baseball and its' season has always meant so much more to me. the season is long and I far prefer cheering for a team that has a competitive chance to make the playoffs year in and year out. The playoffs represent and entirely new season to me. I enjoy the slow trudge of the regular season more than I do this new thing we call the second season.

[moonslav59]

You seem pretty serious about all this stuff Moon. I'm starting to feel sorry for you and whoever you mean when you use the word "we". I'm pretty sure that I shouldn't even be involved in this discussion because it really isn't that big a deal to me.

 

With all due respect, you chime in on the issue quite often.

 

When I say "we" I'm speaking for those of us that believe there is a strong possibility we hit a very rough patch starting in 2020 or 2021. I don't want to speak for others, and I'm probably missing a couple names, but myself, Kimmi, notin, jacksonianmarch all seem to have similar beliefs on this subject.

[jacksonianmarch]

A mediocre team doesn’t mean a team in true playoff contention. Yes, there are mediocre teams who get hot at the right time and win it all, but really, that’s not truly the case. The 85 win Twins this year were still 8 games over .500 and they were the worst team to make the playoffs or be second in the wild card race since the 08 Dodgers who won an awful NL West with 84 wins. Realistically, the second wild card (or first runner up in previous seasons) won at least 87 games and most seasons 88-93 games. When I say mediocre, I’m talking a team that wins anywhere from 75-85 games. That’s typically not enough to make the playoffs and on the bottom side of that, not enough to be in the conversation going into the heat of summer. It also entails the sox re-signing some of their core, leading to a still high team salary without having the bread and butter of a contending club, which is cheap good talent coming up from the minors. You’ll be a top heavy roster with the replacement level players filling in around a few expensive veterans. That’s not a way to build and something that will eventually trigger an all out rebuild.

 

Listen guys, enjoy now through 2019-2020. This is why Dombrowski is here. You’re loaded for bear right now.

[a700hitter]

A mediocre team doesn’t mean a team in true playoff contention. Yes, there are mediocre teams who get hot at the right time and win it all, but really, that’s not truly the case. The 85 win Twins this year were still 8 games over .500 and they were the worst team to make the playoffs or be second in the wild card race since the 08 Dodgers who won an awful NL West with 84 wins. Realistically, the second wild card (or first runner up in previous seasons) won at least 87 games and most seasons 88-93 games. When I say mediocre, I’m talking a team that wins anywhere from 75-85 games. That’s typically not enough to make the playoffs and on the bottom side of that, not enough to be in the conversation going into the heat of summer. It also entails the sox re-signing some of their core, leading to a still high team salary without having the bread and butter of a contending club, which is cheap good talent coming up from the minors. You’ll be a top heavy roster with the replacement level players filling in around a few expensive veterans. That’s not a way to build and something that will eventually trigger an all out rebuild.

 

Listen guys, enjoy now through 2019-2020. This is why Dombrowski is here. You’re loaded for bear right now.

I am rolling myself in bubble wrap and bracing for the inevitable impact.

[moonslav59]

I guess you could say I'm pretty much right with you here. I love the fact that we finally won a World Series or three but baseball and its' season has always meant so much more to me. the season is long and I far prefer cheering for a team that has a competitive chance to make the playoffs year in and year out. The playoffs represent and entirely new season to me. I enjoy the slow trudge of the regular season more than I do this new thing we call the second season.

 

I hear you. I guess maybe the 3 plus decades of several "oh-so-close" to making the playoffs and complete playoff futility wore on me more than I realized.

 

I remember telling friends and relatives I'd take 10 last place finishes for just one ring. I meant that, then, but now that we have 3 rings in my lifetime, my views have changed.

 

Yes, I love being in the race every year, and seasons where we are out of it in July suck royally. Despite what dgalehouse says, I'm no where near "content" with trashy teams if the future looks bright. I will say, I'm happier with that scenario than having a trashy team and a weak farm/future.

 

I want us to compete every year, but there's a point where coming close year after year but not winning it all starts to wear on me. Those 2014 and 2015 seasons really put me back in the mode of striving harder for another ring, even if it sacrificed some of our brighter future prospects. I'm fine with what DD did. I probably would not have done quite as much trading of prospects, but he really did commit to getting us highly competitive for a pretty darn lengthy time. I have no beef with his strategy. I'm fine with looking very good for a 4-5 year period and putting at risk maybe a 2-3 year period afterwards to do so.

 

I don't sit around fretting about 2021. I've lived through 33 years of near constant futility. I can handle 2-3 years without feeling anguish or despair. I will be looking for more highly competitive teams after that questionable 2-3 year period being debated forcefully on this site.

 

[moonslav59]

I am rolling myself in bubble wrap and bracing for the inevitable impact.

 

LMAO!

 

Too funny!

[a700hitter]

LMAO!

 

Too funny!

I am glad that you are in good humor, and truly glad to hear that you don’t sit around fretting about 2021. It wasn’t coming across that way to me, but those are the limitations of the internet.