A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

They are dumpster dives worth minor league contracts. If they make the MLB roster, they will be outperforming expectations. They are hardly worth mentioning in an article as "bargains."

 

Yes, if Fister is #5 on your list of FA bargains, you should probably just end the list at 4.

 

He's definitely still a dumpster dive.

[a700hitter]

Hunter is coming off a great season in which he finally translated his power into K’s. 1.2 WAR for 58IP is hard to do

He will find a big big league roster, but in a good bullpen he is no better than a number 3 option before the closer. He has peaked in my option. If he stays healthy, he is a useful arm, but there isn’t any big upside imo.

[notin]

He will find a big big league roster, but in a good bullpen he is no better than a number 3 option before the closer. He has peaked in my option. If he stays healthy, he is a useful arm, but there isn’t any big upside imo.

 

 

It's not about upside. It's about anticipated performance relative to anticipated salary.

 

If Hunter signs for $3-4 million and delivers as a third option behind a closer at about 1.0 fWAR, he becomes a bargain.

 

That's what Cameron is pointing out. Projected performance relative to projected salary. If someone signs Hunter for $6mill per year, he's not really as much of a bargain...

[notin]

Yes, if Fister is #5 on your list of FA bargains, you should probably just end the list at 4.

 

He's definitely still a dumpster dive.

 

Cameron points out Fister was a top 20 starter last year over the last two months of the season. If his slow start was related to getting back into MLB game shape, he could absolutely be a bargain.

 

Just because a player is a "dumpster dive" on a minor league deal doesn't mean they can't be a bargain. Was Brandon Morrow a bargain for the Dodgers last year?

[a700hitter]

Cameron points out Fister was a top 20 starter last year over the last two months of the season. If his slow start was related to getting back into MLB game shape, he could absolutely be a bargain.

 

Just because a player is a "dumpster dive" on a minor league deal doesn't mean they can't be a bargain. Was Brandon Morrow a bargain for the Dodgers last year?

Sure they can. It is rare that a dumpster dive is a big contributor, but it does happen. Those deals are hardly worth mentioning in pre-season strategy articles as they are so tenuous.

[notin]

Sure they can. It is rare that a dumpster dive is a big contributor, but it does happen. Those deals are hardly worth mentioning in pre-season strategy articles as they are so tenuous.

 

They're worth mentioning in articles about those exact type of signings. If Cameron highlighted Morrow as a bargain last year, would he have been right or not?

 

In fact, I would argue they are not all that rare. Every year, MLBTR runs articles about the best minor league deals. And every year they have multiple candidates.

 

It looks like Cameron is basically saying players like Fister and Hunter are going to outperform their perceived value, and he offers support as to why. That you perceive them to be insignificant dumpster dives offers more to support his argument than to discredit it.

 

I actually wouldn't mind Hunter coming to Boston. Not so sure about Fister. When it comes to potential bargain FA SP, I actually like Miles Mikolas more than Fister...

Edited November 26, 2017 by notin

[a700hitter]

They're worth mentioning in articles about those exact type of signings. If Cameron highlighted Morrow as a bargain last year, would he have been right or not?

 

In fact, I would argue they are not all that rare. Every year, MLBTR runs articles about the best minor league deals. And every year they have multiple candidates.

 

It looks like Cameron is basically saying players like Fister and Hunter are going to outperform their perceived value, and he offers support as to why. That you perceive them to be insignificant dumpster dives offers more to support his argument than to discredit it.

 

I actually wouldn't mind Hunter coming to Boston. Not so sure about Fister. When it comes to potential bargain FA SP, I actually like Miles Mikolas more than Fister...

Did he mention Morrow last year? I am betting that he didn't.

 

Saying that Fister will outperform his perceived value is not a great prediction as he has very little value and merely making a major league roster next season and putting up a 5.00 ERA would be outperforming his perceived value. Is that notable as a pre-season projection? Not to me. As for Hunter, outperforming his perceived value would mean that he would have to become an 8th inning guy or go back into a starting rotation. That one bears watching.

[moonslav59]

Yes, if Fister is #5 on your list of FA bargains, you should probably just end the list at 4.

 

He's definitely still a dumpster dive.

 

That's the point. he's trying to project which dumpster dive or low cost signing will do the best next year.

 

It's not an easy task. It might be a useless endeavor, but there's not much else to talk about this time of year.

[moonslav59]

Here's a critique of Hosmer's strengths (which are actually medioce) and weaknesses...

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/free-agent-profile-eric-hosmer.html

[a700hitter]

That's the point. he's trying to project which dumpster dive or low cost signing will do the best next year.

 

It's not an easy task. It might be a useless endeavor, but there's not much else to talk about this time of year.

He should publish his results. Otherwise, it is hard to take seriously articles and lists like this.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the point. he's trying to project which dumpster dive or low cost signing will do the best next year.

 

Santana and Cain are 2 of the top free agents though. Fister just doesn't seem to belong on the same kind of list. For me it's a quibble more than anything, though.

[Larry Cook]

I think we need to sign Tillman.

[moonslav59]

Santana and Cain are 2 of the top free agents though. Fister just doesn't seem to belong on the same kind of list. For me it's a quibble more than anything, though.

 

Santana will cost significantly less than Hosmer and may outperform him. That's a "bargain". He never said anything about his choices signing minor league contracts or minimum ML contracts.

 

His article seems to be for entertainment and as a discussion generator, but I'm just giving my opinion on his motives.

[a700hitter]

I think we need to sign Tillman.

Is he healthy? I don’t trust our medical staff to figure out his health status.

[moonslav59]

He should publish his results. Otherwise, it is hard to take seriously articles and lists like this.

 

A simple google search does the trick.

 

2016 bargains: Rich Hill, Ben Zobrist, Steve Pearce, wei-yin Chen & Jason Heyward 9hardly a low cost FA).

'

2017 bargains: Justin Turner, Rich Hill, Neil Walker, Brett Cecil, Matt Holliday

 

2016 landmines: Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmerman & Chris Davis

 

2017 landmines: Mark Trumbo, Mark Melancon, Edwin Encarnacion, Kendrys Morales, Matt Wieters

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Tillman struggled with his shoulder and when he came back, he was the worst pitcher in the AL. If he gets completely healthy, he’s a really good pitcher. But I think there’s something lurking in that shoulder that might need fixing. Buyer beware

[moonslav59]

Tillman struggled with his shoulder and when he came back, he was the worst pitcher in the AL. If he gets completely healthy, he’s a really good pitcher. But I think there’s something lurking in that shoulder that might need fixing. Buyer beware

 

Well, I was sitting next to an O's fan this year, and he assured me that Tillman will be 100% healthy for 2018.

[harmony]

He should publish his results. Otherwise, it is hard to take seriously articles and lists like this.

In making his bargain and landmine picks, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron always links his picks from the previous year. It’s hard to take seriously criticism from a poster who apparently has not read the columns.

[a700hitter]

In making his bargain and landmine picks, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron always links his picks from the previous year. It’s hard to take seriously criticism from a poster who apparently has not read the columns.

Touche' I will check his track record.

[a700hitter]

Touche' I will check his track record.

I checked his record and last year he didn't make any dumpster dive picks for starting pitching and he did not pick Morrow either. Instead he picked Brett Cecil. Cecil's 2017 performance was pretty much the same as his 2016 performance and it was significantly down from 2015. Overall, as I expected, his record at picking Best Buys is pretty meh -- and a worthless endeavor imo.

[Kimmi]

Santana and Cain are 2 of the top free agents though. Fister just doesn't seem to belong on the same kind of list. For me it's a quibble more than anything, though.

 

A 'bargain' doesn't necessarily mean the player will be a key starting player. A bargain means that you will get good bang for your buck. That bang might only be 1 WAR, as Notin pointed out, but if you're only paying a couple of million for that win as opposed to $8 million, then that's a bargain.

[Kimmi]

In making his bargain and landmine picks, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron always links his picks from the previous year. It’s hard to take seriously criticism from a poster who apparently has not read the columns.

 

Dave Cameron is the man. I don't always agree with him, but he's the man.

[a700hitter]

A 'bargain' doesn't necessarily mean the player will be a key starting player. A bargain means that you will get good bang for your buck. That bang might only be 1 WAR, as Notin pointed out, but if you're only paying a couple of million for that win as opposed to $8 million, then that's a bargain.

Oh, the rest of us thought that a bargain was 25% off.

[dgalehouse]

A 'bargain' doesn't necessarily mean the player will be a key starting player. A bargain means that you will get good bang for your buck. That bang might only be 1 WAR, as Notin pointed out, but if you're only paying a couple of million for that win as opposed to $8 million, then that's a bargain.

 

I think people sometimes confuse fantasy baseball with the reality of baseball as a sport/business. A " bang for your buck " may sound good , but when payrolls vary greatly , it is not enough. You want to build a championship caliber team. You don't shop in the bargain aisle.

[Spudboy]

Well, I was sitting next to an O's fan this year, and he assured me that Tillman will be 100% healthy for 2018.

 

By all means adopt the opinion of a biased fan instead of the opinion of a Doctor Of Medicine that understands and has experience in sports medicine.

 

Sound thinking.

[Spudboy]

I think people sometimes confuse fantasy baseball with the reality of baseball as a sport/business. A " bang for your buck " may sound good , but when payrolls vary greatly , it is not enough. You want to build a championship caliber team. You don't shop in the bargain aisle.

 

Excellent f***ing post.

[moonslav59]

Charlie Morton was a bargain for the championship team.

[harmony]

I think people sometimes confuse fantasy baseball with the reality of baseball as a sport/business. A " bang for your buck " may sound good , but when payrolls vary greatly , it is not enough. You want to build a championship caliber team. You don't shop in the bargain aisle.

Unless you’re the Red Sox in the 2012-13 offseason.

[a700hitter]

Well, I was sitting next to an O's fan this year, and he assured me that Tillman will be 100% healthy for 2018.

Carrying over arguments from another thread is poor form. I am living rent free in your head. LOL! I am really under your skin.

[a700hitter]

Charlie Morton was a bargain for the championship team.

No experts saw that coming. It was a great move by the Astros, but it wasn’t a dumpster dive. Edited November 27, 2017 by a700hitter