A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks DD

 

And thanks Ben

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox will add a power bat, and a full season of Devers will add to the power numbers.

[Kimmi]

Old days yes, today nope. I'll take a Sanchez, deficiencies, on Defense and take his Offense. And really there is not going to be a great drop-off either. Otherwise they would never give him such important position. But the difference is how many games won on Offense. You would rather have Sanchez over Vazquez yes?

Also a Veteran Pitching staff, helps a lot. Next year will tell me a lot about Vazquez if he is #1 Catcher. I'll be able to gage him better.

 

No, I would not necessarily take Sanchez over Vazquez. I do agree that Sanchez was worth more to his team this year than Vazquez was, but I don't think the gap was as big as it looks.

 

Sanchez caught 110 more innings than Vaz caught, which is some of that difference. Also, Vaz gains nearly a game over Sanchez in pitch framing, once again not accounting for the difference in innings. Give Sanchez and Vaz the same playing time offensively and defensively, throw in the pitch framing stats, and the catchers are closer than their WAR indicates they are.

 

Lastly, none of the stats include 'handling a pitching staff', which I think is the most important part of a catcher's job. IMO, Vaz does a good job in that area. I don't know about Sanchez since I have not watched him enough nor read what pitchers are saying about him. I do know that there was some talk about removing Sanchez from behind the plate because of his defensive issues.

[Kimmi]

The Sox will add a power bat, and a full season of Devers will add to the power numbers.

 

Not to mention positive regression from some of our current players.

[Kimmi]

No, I would not necessarily take Sanchez over Vazquez. I do agree that Sanchez was worth more to his team this year than Vazquez was, but I don't think the gap was as big as it looks.

 

Sanchez caught 110 more innings than Vaz caught, which is some of that difference. Also, Vaz gains nearly a game over Sanchez in pitch framing, once again not accounting for the difference in innings. Give Sanchez and Vaz the same playing time offensively and defensively, throw in the pitch framing stats, and the catchers are closer than their WAR indicates they are.

 

Lastly, none of the stats include 'handling a pitching staff', which I think is the most important part of a catcher's job. IMO, Vaz does a good job in that area. I don't know about Sanchez since I have not watched him enough nor read what pitchers are saying about him. I do know that there was some talk about removing Sanchez from behind the plate because of his defensive issues.

 

All that said, I do acknowledge that the team should go with the catcher that gives the team the most overall value. The idea of an all offense, mediocre or poor defensive catcher just does not sit well with me at all.

[Kimmi]

And thanks Ben

 

Ben's not the one who messed Swihart up with his panic moves.

[Bellhorn04]

Ben's not the one who messed Swihart up with his panic moves.

 

Shoulda traded him after 2014 when his value was at its highest!

 

(I'm just messing around with this nonsense.)

[moonslav59]

No, I would not necessarily take Sanchez over Vazquez. I do agree that Sanchez was worth more to his team this year than Vazquez was, but I don't think the gap was as big as it looks.

 

Sanchez caught 110 more innings than Vaz caught, which is some of that difference. Also, Vaz gains nearly a game over Sanchez in pitch framing, once again not accounting for the difference in innings. Give Sanchez and Vaz the same playing time offensively and defensively, throw in the pitch framing stats, and the catchers are closer than their WAR indicates they are.

 

Lastly, none of the stats include 'handling a pitching staff', which I think is the most important part of a catcher's job. IMO, Vaz does a good job in that area. I don't know about Sanchez since I have not watched him enough nor read what pitchers are saying about him. I do know that there was some talk about removing Sanchez from behind the plate because of his defensive issues.

 

I can't agree more.

 

You nailed it.

[moonslav59]

As of right now, if you had to choose from one of tehse plans, which would it be? (assuming all 3 winter plans that stay within the estimated $40M spending budget):

 

A)

Sign JD Martinez ($22M x ? years)

Sign Lucas Duda ($8M/1year) to play 1B/ some DH (keep HRam from vesting his option)

Sign SP'er to $10M (Hellickson/Holland type)

 

Sign Mike Moustakas ($25M x ? years) & move Devers to 1B

Sign Lucas Duda ($8M/1year) to play DH/ some 1B (keep HRam from vesting his option)

Sign SP'er to $7M (Fister type)

 

C)

Sign Alex Cobb ($17M x ? years)

Sign Lucas Duda ($8M/1year) to play 1B/DH (keep HRam from vesting his option)

Sign Eduardo Nunez ($7M x ? years, assuming recovered from surgery)

Sign 4th OF'er like Carlos Beltran ($7M x 1 yr)

 

[sk7326]

BTW: nothing signals positivity to free agents like actively trying to prevent somebody from vesting his option.

[moonslav59]

BTW: nothing signals positivity to free agents like actively trying to prevent somebody from vesting his option.

 

I seriously doubt it ever is the deciding factor for a future free agent, if we end up nearly platooning Duda with HRam next season, and HRam does not vest.

 

Now, if HRam does well next year, and we limit his PAs, then you have a point, but HRam has sucked for 2 of the last 3 years and giving him about 60 less PAs than he had this year is not some radical smack down on HRam.

 

Duda is way better vs RHPs.

 

[moonslav59]

When is the first day a team can sign a free agent?

[sk7326]

When is the first day a team can sign a free agent?

 

5 days after the world series is deadline to offer QOs to free agents

FAs have 10 days to accept/decline

Sixth day after the world series FAs can start to sign

 

The QO twist will be interesting this year with the new CBA kicking in. Guys who have been tendered a QO in the past cannot be tendered again (this primarily impacts Justin Upton). Compensation and penalties for signing guys who rejected QOs are tied to payroll and significantly less than the old days.

[OH FOY]

25 million for a career .250 hitter. Don't you think that's a overpay. And OK 3rd baseman, nothing special. Edited October 23, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

5 days after the world series is deadline to offer QOs to free agents

FAs have 10 days to accept/decline

Sixth day after the world series FAs can start to sign

 

The QO twist will be interesting this year with the new CBA kicking in. Guys who have been tendered a QO in the past cannot be tendered again (this primarily impacts Justin Upton). Compensation and penalties for signing guys who rejected QOs are tied to payroll and significantly less than the old days.

 

Thanks.

 

I think another change is that teams that sign a QO no longer lose a 1st round pick. They lose a second rounder instead.

[sk7326]

Thanks.

 

I think another change is that teams that sign a QO no longer lose a 1st round pick. They lose a second rounder instead.

 

They lose their 2nd best pick ... possibly 2nd and 5th ... it has to do with luxury tax payers (on the "signing free agent side") and revenue sharing beneficiaries (on the "losing FA side")

[oldtimer]

5 days after the world series is deadline to offer QOs to free agents

FAs have 10 days to accept/decline

Sixth day after the world series FAs can start to sign

 

The QO twist will be interesting this year with the new CBA kicking in. Guys who have been tendered a QO in the past cannot be tendered again (this primarily impacts Justin Upton). Compensation and penalties for signing guys who rejected QOs are tied to payroll and significantly less than the old days.

 

Cora will be trying to assemble his coaching staff in that time frame. I hope he and his coaching staff becomes a part of selecting such FAs as we do sign.

[moonslav59]

My wish list...

 

1) Stanton, as long as we don't have to give up JBJ and Bogey (or Beni).

2T) JD Martinez

2T) M Moustakas

4) L Duda (assuming we get 1 of the above)/ Santana (if not)

5) A Cobb

6) Z Cozart

7) L Morrison (see Duda)

8) maybe Lance Lynn?

9) E Nunez (if health is okay)/ H Kendick (if not)

 

[moonslav59]

It's not too long for the time to add rule 5 players to the 40 man roster or risk losing them to the draft. (The team drafting a player must keep the player on the 25 man roster for 90 days.)

 

Here's the list:

Jalen Beeks

Danny Mars

Jeremy Barfield

Jake Cosart

Justin Haley

Kyle Martin

Jordan Procyshen

Victor Acosta

Jake Romanski

Chandler Shepherd

Teddy Stankiewicz

Yoan Aybar

Trey Ball

Ty Buttrey

Rusney Castillo

Jantzen Witte

Kevin McAvoy

 

Danny Bethea

Jordan Betts

Harrison Cooney

Enmanuel De Jesus

Jhonathan Diaz

Willis Figueroa

Pat Goetze

Daniel Gonzalez

Juan Hernandez

Bryan Hudson

Dedgar Jimenez

Raiwinson Lameda

Deiner Lopez

Isaias Lucena

Algenis Martinez

Daniel McGrath

Ritzi Mendoza

Mike Meyers

Mike Miller

Samuel Miranda

Joseph Monge

Jhon Nunez

Justin Pacchioli

Yankory Pimentel

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Fernando Rodriguez

Josh Smith

Cole Sturgeon

Carlos Tovar

Jordan Weems

 

I see maybe 4 or 5 players that should be, or are close to being, good enough to protect.

 

Now, how many roster spots can we open up? (Not counting the slot(s) to be taken by signing free agents.)

 

The 26 sure keepers unless traded:

Betts

Benintendi

Devers

Sale

Bogaerts

Bradley

Kimbrel

Pomeranz

Rodriguez (place on 60 day DL?)

Pedey

Vazquez

Smith

Kelly

Maddox

Wright (place on 60 day DL?)

Thornburg (place on 60 day DL?)

Workman

Barnes

Travis

Velazquez

Scott

Ross (place on 60 day DL?)

Leon

Porcello

Price

HRam

 

4 bubble players with options remaining

M Hernandez

Tzu-Wei Lin

Brock Holt

Ben Taylor

 

 

4 bubble players with no options remaining (DFA, trade or non-tender):

Marrero

Hembree

Johnson

Swihart

 

Gone:

Owens

Rutledge

Elias

 

If we keep all the bubble players, we're at 34 and can protect 6 rule 5 players. I'm not sure, but I think you can't have players on the 60 man DL during the rule 5 period. Assuming we get rid of Owens, Rutledge and Elias, I'm not sure we can keep all 34 players later on, since so the 4 no-option players will not all make the 25 man roster, unless we have several players on the DL. We could just decide now, who to let go and perhaps keep 1-2 more rule 5 guys, at least until we sign a FA or two and are forced to make further choices.

 

In short, we have 26 "keepers", unless they get traded and 8 bubble players- 4 without options.

 

4 bubble players with options remaining

M Hernandez

Tzu-Wei Lin

Brock Holt

Ben Taylor

 

 

4 bubble players with no options remaining (DFA, trade or non-tender):

Marrero

Hembree

Johnson

Swihart

 

Gone:

Owens

Rutledge

Elias

 

That leaves 6 slots for rule 5 players and newly added players via trade or free agency.

 

Are the 6 players we add to the 40 man roster to protect?

 

Jalen Beeks

Danny Mars

Jeremy Barfield

Jake Cosart

Justin Haley

Kyle Martin

 

Assuming all this comes true, who goes, if we sign 1, 2 or 3 free agents?

 

1) We could trade some guys with no options remaining.

2) We could make a 2 or 3 for 1 type deal.

3) We could DFA...

 

1 from Holt, Marrero or Lin

1 from Hembree or Taylor

Swihart

a rule 5 guy (Barfiled or Martin?)

 

[moonslav59]

Fall League Update:

 

Swihart is 6 for 13 with 5 walks and 2 Ks. He has been catching.

 

Chavis .314/.351/.429

 

Travis is 4 for 17 with 3 BBs.

 

Brentz is batting .147 in 34 ABs with 1 HR.

 

Chad de la Guerra .235 but has 2 HRs in just 17 ABs.

 

Ty Buttrey 1 ER in 3.1 IP

 

Owens is still wild. Time to DFA the poor kid (7BB in 5IP)

 

[sk7326]

I think there is a 20% chance Chavis is part of the 1B picture by the middle of 2018.

[moonslav59]

I think there is a 20% chance Chavis is part of the 1B picture by the middle of 2018.

 

Could be, but if we sign a 1Bman, it goes down a lot.

 

HRam's ability to play 1B is also a factor, especially if we sign a DH type like JD Martinez.

 

Travis looks like he took a step back last year, so Chavis can certainly leap frog him.

 

I wonder about Chavis at 2B.

[mvp 78]

Why worry about Barfield being taken in the Rule V draft? He's a nobody. There is very little value for a 29 year old that can only hit AA pitching. That's an org guy. No one is going to draft him.

[sk7326]

Could be, but if we sign a 1Bman, it goes down a lot.

 

HRam's ability to play 1B is also a factor, especially if we sign a DH type like JD Martinez.

 

Travis looks like he took a step back last year, so Chavis can certainly leap frog him.

 

I wonder about Chavis at 2B.

 

If he could stay in the middle of the field, the org would have kept him there.

[moonslav59]

Why worry about Barfield being taken in the Rule V draft? He's a nobody. There is very little value for a 29 year old that can only hit AA pitching. That's an org guy. No one is going to draft him.

 

Good point. Despite his huge break-out year, players like him are a dime-a-dozen.

 

Give me your priority list, please. I'm all ears.

[moonslav59]

If he could stay in the middle of the field, the org would have kept him there.

 

Yeah. His range is probably too limited for 2B, and turning DPs could be scary.

 

He looks to be a 1B/DH type and emergency 3B back-up type.

 

We nned a 1B/DH, but we cannot trust in him for day one.

[mvp 78]

Good point. Despite his huge break-out year, players like him are a dime-a-dozen.

 

Give me your priority list, please. I'm all ears.

 

Yours is fine. I think Trey Ball (for better or worse) gets put on the 40 long before Barfield does. However, I think DD signs enough guys prior to December that only Beeks, Martin and Mars are added from your 6 guys. I'm not sure Cozart or Haley are good enough to worry about someone drafting them. I'm a big fan of Beeks. I think Martin is fine as a AAAA guy that is called up for relief innings (was protected prior to last year's draft). Danny Mars could see some time in BOS next year depending on injury as the Sox are still not keen on bringing Castillo up.

[moonslav59]

Yours is fine. I think Trey Ball (for better or worse) gets put on the 40 long before Barfield does. However, I think DD signs enough guys prior to December that only Beeks, Martin and Mars are added from your 6 guys. I'm not sure Cozart or Haley are good enough to worry about someone drafting them. I'm a big fan of Beeks. I think Martin is fine as a AAAA guy that is called up for relief innings (was protected prior to last year's draft). Danny Mars could see some time in BOS next year depending on injury as the Sox are still not keen on bringing Castillo up.

 

Haley was taken last year, then was returned.

 

I could see Shepherd or Buttrey (maybe Stanki) being protected, then dropped when we sign someone.

 

This might be more likely:

 

Jalen Beeks

Danny Mars

Justin Haley

Kyle Martin

Jake Cosart

Shepherd or Buttrey

[harmony]

Dustin Pedroia underwent knee surgery today, according to this tweet from Globe writer Pete Abraham:

 

 

I stumbled upon this Pedroia report from 2006:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/05/pedroia-falling.html

[Bellhorn04]

Dustin Pedroia underwent knee surgery today, according to this tweet from Globe writer Pete Abraham:

 

 

As one of the Twitter commenters notes, this is the 4th surgery since our GM said there'd be none.