A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[cp176]

I'm predicting - Leon gone (packaged with others) - Swihart in! Actually I have said it before - nothing new.

[Spudboy]

I'm predicting - Leon gone (packaged with others) - Swihart in! Actually I have said it before - nothing new.

 

I am the biggest Swihart fan here and I don't see that happening.

 

I say he gets traded.

[bosoxmal]

I am the biggest Swihart fan here and I don't see that happening.

 

I say he gets traded.

Hopefully they don't ruin Devers (a future super-star for sure), like they didSwihart, by moving him all over the lot. I trust that Dever;s fielding will improve enough so they can forget switching him around. He's not likely to become a Longoria in the field but he'll more than make up for it with his bat.

 

I would like to see Swihart get one more shot. His switch hitting would seem to favor that one more shot.

[moonslav59]

I am the biggest Swihart fan here and I don't see that happening.

 

I say he gets traded.

 

Depends on the rule 5 roster crunch.

 

I doubt we get much for Swihart in trade as he is at his lowest point in value. I like Blake, and I still think he may become a very good hitter.

 

I'd try to keep him.

 

I'd deal or non tender Holt and Rutledge. I'd DFA Owens now.

 

I might trade Hembree, since he is out of options and we have a deep pen, but maybe waiting until spring is best for that move, unless a great rule 5 player is in danger of being snatched (unlikely).

 

Elias is on the bubble.

 

My roster keepers (listed by 40 man roster seniority):

 

27: Pedey, Wright, Vaz, JBJ, Workman, Bogey, Betts, Kelly, Barnes, ERod, HRam, Porcello, Ross, Johnson, Kimbrel, Hernandez, Price, Smith, Leon, Pom, Beni, Scott, Thornburg, Sale, Travis, Maddox, Devers

 

Almost certain 8: Holt, Swihart, Hembree, Marrero, Elias, Taylor, Velazquez, Lin

 

2 Gone: Owens & Rutledge

 

Rule 5 List (unless added by DEC):

Victor Acosta

Yoan Aybar

Trey Ball

Jeremy Barfield

Jalen Beeks

Danny Bethea

Jordan Betts

Ty Buttrey

Rusney Castillo

Harrison Cooney

Jake Cosart

Enmanuel De Jesus

Jhonathan Diaz

Willis Figueroa

Pat Goetze

Daniel Gonzalez

Justin Haley

Juan Hernandez

Bryan Hudson

Dedgar Jimenez

Raiwinson Lameda

Deiner Lopez

Isaias Lucena

Danny Mars

Kyle Martin

Algenis Martinez

Kevin McAvoy

Daniel McGrath

Ritzi Mendoza

Mike Meyers

Mike Miller

Samuel Miranda

Joseph Monge

Jhon Nunez

Justin Pacchioli

Yankory Pimentel

Jordan Procyshen

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Fernando Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Chandler Shepherd

Josh Smith

Teddy Stankiewicz

Cole Sturgeon

Aneury Tavarez

Carlos Tovar

Jordan Weems

Jantzen Witte

 

Minor League FA (unless signed by NOV)

Brian Bogusevic

Bryce Brentz

Dan Butler

Ryan Court

Jacob Dahlstrand

Matt Dominguez

Conrad Gregor

Shawn Haviland

Williams Jerez

Kyle Kendrick

Heiker Meneses

Edgar Olmos

Mike Olt

Mitchell Osnowitz

Tim Roberson

Steve Selsky

Jose Sermo

Aneury Tavarez

Herny Urrutia

Elih Villaneuva

Marcus Walden

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

I ran across this scouting report of a Red Sox prospect ranked No. 15 in the organization five years ago:

 

His overally package of tools is probably not a threat to incumbent second baseman Dustin Pedroia and the infield glut of prospects – which is a great ‘problem’ for Boston to have – could push the youngster to a utlity role if he can diversify his defensive abilities and isn’t used as future trade bait.

 

Additional Notes

 

xxxxx is an athletic second baseman with gap power and strong contact skills. Unfortunately, his arm will keep him out of the shortstop picture which hurts his value. I like xxxxx as a sleeper, but would probably have Vinicio ranked here instead. He’s younger, just as athletic and profiles as a true shortstop. (Mike Newman)

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/boston-red-sox-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

[notin]

I am the biggest Swihart fan here and I don't see that happening.

 

I say he gets traded.

 

Is there any demand for him? The Sox might be able to get a better return for Leon, not that he'll bring back a dazzling package either...

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has Swihart with one option left. I say give him a few months in AAA to show if he deserves a look, then trade him or Leon.

 

(I thought I read somewhere he was going to be out of options next year. Maybe soxprospects.com has not been updated yet.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart was awful and is most likely done

[moonslav59]

Swihart was awful and is most likely done

 

Apparently, his ankle was bothering him just about all year.

 

You could be right; he could be done, even if he gets healthy.

 

I don't think it hurts to give him another look, but if we have a rule 5 guy in danger of being selected, I'm fine with DFA'ing him and trying to get him to sign a minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

Assuming 100% health, which is a stretch for Pedey, HRam, Hernandez, Thornburg, Ross and others, here' how I see our depth chart at each position- before any signings:

 

SP:

Sale

Price

Pom

ERod

Porcello

Wright

Velazquez

Johnson-Beeks

 

RP

Kimbrel

Smith

Thornburg

Kelly

Barnes

Maddox

Workman

Scott

Hembree

Taylor-Martin-Buttrey-Elias-Cozart

 

C

Vaz

Leon

Swihart-Romanski-Procyshen-Rei (Butler)

 

1B

HRam

Travis

Holt

 

2B

Pedey

Hernandez

Holt

Lin-Marrero

 

3B

Devers

Hernandez

Holt-Lin-Marrero

 

SS

Bogaerts

Hernandez

Lin-Marrero

Holt

 

LF

Beni

Holt

Mars-Barfield (Brentz)

 

CF

JBJ

(Betts-Beni)

Holt

Castillo

 

RF

Betts

(JBJ-Beni)

Holt

Castillo-(Tavarez)

 

 

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I'd like to see mars get a shot to prove himself this coming spring. Though he has no power, he does have a nice swing and a good approach at the plate.

[oldtimer]

Last night's game between the Astros and Yankees featured two excellent starting pitchers not just throwers. The Yankee lineup is full of power hitters while the Astros have hitters who can also hit for power. The Yankees have the advantage in BP. Defense in a game like that is critical and the Astros make some good plays despite the error by Altuve. The entire infields for both clubs is solid defensively yet the Astros were able to manufacture a couple of runs with speed and just singles hitting.

 

The point of relating my views of the game is that Moon had mentioned our own infield in 2018 as potentially being Devers and 3rd, bogey at SS, Pedroia/Nunez at 2nd and Hanley at 1st. I doubt if that infield would have made the plays that the Astros made last night and is something to really consider. Bogey doesn't have the greatest range, but he is probably the best of ours at this point. The discussion of moving Devers to 1st, finding a good 3rd base prospect that can hit and possibly thinking more about 2nd with a non-Nunez good fielder/hitter might be the best approach.

 

Whatever we do, we need to work hard on getting on younger players to be more disciplined yet aggressive hitters and that involved new thinking by our coaches and manager. We have good speed on the team so we can manufacture runs if we can get on base.

[moonslav59]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking moving Devers to 1B sooner rather than later makes sense. The problem is, signing Mostakas just makes us average on defense at 3B. While that's still a big improvement, I still feel it is lacking. Getting Machado or Beltre would be better, but at what cost. Donaldson is looking more and more avergae on defense as he ages.

 

Signing JD really puts us in a poor fielding box. We could still move Devers to 1B with JD at DH, but who plays 3B? Where does our $22M wonder play? When we play in NL parks, JD plays the OF and weakens our defense even more.

 

By the numbers, our defense was near the top despite our 3B defense. I'm not preaching the end of the world, if we don't improve our IF defense. I happen to think our lack of a clean-up hitter and overall power is a bigger need than improving our IF, but if we can find a way to improve our defense along a way, I say, let's go for it.

 

[oldtimer]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking moving Devers to 1B sooner rather than later makes sense. The problem is, signing Mostakas just makes us average on defense at 3B. While that's still a big improvement, I still feel it is lacking. Getting Machado or Beltre would be better, but at what cost. Donaldson is looking more and more avergae on defense as he ages.

 

Signing JD really puts us in a poor fielding box. We could still move Devers to 1B with JD at DH, but who plays 3B? Where does our $22M wonder play? When we play in NL parks, JD plays the OF and weakens our defense even more.

 

By the numbers, our defense was near the top despite our 3B defense. I'm not preaching the end of the world, if we don't improve our IF defense. I happen to think our lack of a clean-up hitter and overall power is a bigger need than improving our IF, but if we can find a way to improve our defense along a way, I say, let's go for it.

 

 

A cleanup hitter or just about any hitter is struggling against Playoff pitching. One might help get us to the PO's but not help us advance. We almost certainly should keep Hanley in the DH role next season which means moving Devers (if that works) and finding a credible 3rd baseman for at least one year. Not so easy but I like the chances. Moving Bogey for one year and signing Cozart might work. Lot of moves though so it might not work. We do need to focus on 2nd as well since few believe Pedey can hold that job down for more than about 1/2 the season.

[Spudboy]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking moving Devers to 1B sooner rather than later makes sense. The problem is, signing Mostakas just makes us average on defense at 3B. While that's still a big improvement, I still feel it is lacking. Getting Machado or Beltre would be better, but at what cost. Donaldson is looking more and more avergae on defense as he ages.

 

Signing JD really puts us in a poor fielding box. We could still move Devers to 1B with JD at DH, but who plays 3B? Where does our $22M wonder play? When we play in NL parks, JD plays the OF and weakens our defense even more.

 

By the numbers, our defense was near the top despite our 3B defense. I'm not preaching the end of the world, if we don't improve our IF defense. I happen to think our lack of a clean-up hitter and overall power is a bigger need than improving our IF, but if we can find a way to improve our defense along a way, I say, let's go for it.

 

 

Moon what is the primary attraction to Mostakas? Isn't he a little long in the tooth? What kind of investment would it take to sign him?

 

I don't get it.

[notin]

Swihart was awful and is most likely done

 

Just like Severino in 2016?

[notin]

Moon what is the primary attraction to Mostakas? Isn't he a little long in the tooth? What kind of investment would it take to sign him?

 

I don't get it.

 

Moustakas is younger than JD Martinez. .

[moonslav59]

Moon what is the primary attraction to Mostakas? Isn't he a little long in the tooth? What kind of investment would it take to sign him?

 

I don't get it.

 

Moustakas is much better than Hosmer.

 

Although he's not a great fielding 1Bman, he's much better than Devers.

 

I like JD first, but if he signs elsewhere, I see Moose as the next best clean-up hitter on the FA market.

 

I'm not thrilled by moving a 20 year old off his position, but I'm scared about our IF defense next year. Moose helps us in two big high need areas:

 

clean-up hitter

 

left side IF defense

 

I'm not a a big Moose fan. I just don't see many great clean-up hitters on the FA market, do you see someone I'm missing?

[moonslav59]

Moustakas is younger than JD Martinez. .

 

Yes, he just turned 29, so he should have 2-3 good years left and another 2-3 decent ones to follow. His OBP is too low for my liking (.314 in 2017 and .305 career), but we need power. Moose has been over .500 slugging two years in a row. He has 45 HRs in his last 711 PAs.

 

JD turned 30 in August, so he's about 13 months older than Moose. He's a bad OF defender and may have to play there when we are in NL parks. 45 HRs in just 489 PAs this year is spectacular, and that's why I have him slighlty ahead of Moose on my FA wish list, but he's only played more than 123 games ONCE in his career! That is very very concerning.

 

Moose improves the D. JD might worsen it.

 

JD is a better hitter, when healthy.

 

To me, these two are far ahead of the #3 non-pitching FAs on the market...

 

maybe Upton, Santana and Hosmer are next.

 

If we could sign Moustakas or JD Martinez plus a one-year deal from Duda, Morrison or Alonso, we could be all set. I'd also like to add Nunez or Howie Kendrick as insurance for Pedey, but I'm not sure how wide Henry's wallet will be opened.

 

There are trade options, but that will open new holes or further empty our farm.

 

Ideally, we could sign both JD and Moose. This would move Devers to 1b and squeeze HRam out of his 497 PAs. Devers could back up 3B, JD could back up the OF, and HRam could DH or play 1B when any of this happens or Devers or JD need some rest.

 

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Moose

6. Devers

7. Pedey

8. JBJ

9. Vaz

 

or

 

1. Betts

2. Beni

3. JD

4. Moose

5. Devers

6. Bogey

7. Pedey

8. JBJ

9. Vaz

 

[dgalehouse]

I would think big. Call the Angels and find out what it would take to get Trout.

[Station 13]

I would think big. Call the Angels and find out what it would take to get Trout.

 

they blocks those calls

[Spudboy]

Moustakas is much better than Hosmer.

 

Although he's not a great fielding 1Bman, he's much better than Devers.

 

I like JD first, but if he signs elsewhere, I see Moose as the next best clean-up hitter on the FA market.

 

I'm not thrilled by moving a 20 year old off his position, but I'm scared about our IF defense next year. Moose helps us in two big high need areas:

 

clean-up hitter

 

left side IF defense

 

I'm not a a big Moose fan. I just don't see many great clean-up hitters on the FA market, do you see someone I'm missing?

 

No I don't. Not anyone obvious, at least. Maybe in trade there may be one.

 

Ugh. I guess the pickin's are slim.

[moonslav59]

No I don't. Not anyone obvious, at least. Maybe in trade there may be one.

 

Ugh. I guess the pickin's are slim.

 

Yes, slim pickings at clean up. I'm open to trade ideas, but I don't like the idea of creating 2 new holes to fill one canyon

[Behindenemylines]

I think Machado is the target and so you resign Moreland to a one year deal. Move Devers to 1b, sign Machado, AFTER the 2018 season. I think they go to war with pretty much the same team in 2018--they don't have enough realistic options to significantly upgrade the offense until Machado hits the market. Benintendi and Devers could make big strides in 2018, which would lead to an improved offense.

 

Maybe they can do some research and try to figure out why some pitchers excel in the postseason and others are like Chris Sale. They should try to upgrade the rotation, but that will be hard to do. They need to manage Sale differently during the season to keep him strong for the postseason.

 

They need to get Pedroia's health figured out. They may need to move him to the DH spot, which wouldn't be a bad idea as it would keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting.

 

Pedey only makes sense if you keep his glove in the lineup. At this stage in his career he doesn’t hit enough to be DH.

[Behindenemylines]

Swihart was awful and is most likely done

 

Says the yankee fan. If healthy he has some value to the Sox. A switch hitter that can play a few positions. If not with the Sox (which I hope happens), then as a trading chip.

[moonslav59]

Pedey only makes sense if you keep his glove in the lineup. At this stage in his career he doesn’t hit enough to be DH.

 

While I agree, I do think he can hit better than HRam and Moreland.

 

He might also hit better, if he wasn't hurt so much.

 

That being said, I agree. He is not what I'm hoping for from our DH position.

[moonslav59]

I wrote Mike over at soxprospects,com about the player options listed on the site. He wrote back and told me he has not updated that page yet, but here are the lists of players who burned options and did not burn options last year:

 

Players who burned options:

Brian Johnson

Tzu-Wei Lin

Austin Maddox

Deven Marrero

Kyle Martin

Henry Owens

Robby Scott

Steve Selsky

Blake Swihart

Ben Taylor

Sam Travis

Hector Velazquez

Brandon Workman

 

These players were optioned, but did not "burn an option":

Roenis Elias

Marco Hernandez

Robbie Ross

 

That basically leaves these 25 man roster "bubble" players with these amount of options:

 

Zero

Wright

Hembree

Leon

Johnson

Marrero

Swihart

Rutledge (non tender?)

 

One (with player permission)

Workman

Holt

 

One (with no permission needed)

Thornburg

Maddox

Taylor

Velazquez

Travis

Elias

Owens

 

Two+ options remaining

R Ross

Hernandez

Scott

 

We might try to trade Marrero and Johnson rather than lose them. We will likely trade Leon or Swihart, since I doubt we go with Swihart as our utility/3rd catcher player next season.

 

[Nick]

Yes, he just turned 29, so he should have 2-3 good years left and another 2-3 decent ones to follow. His OBP is too low for my liking (.314 in 2017 and .305 career), but we need power. Moose has been over .500 slugging two years in a row. He has 45 HRs in his last 711 PAs.

 

JD turned 30 in August, so he's about 13 months older than Moose. He's a bad OF defender and may have to play there when we are in NL parks. 45 HRs in just 489 PAs this year is spectacular, and that's why I have him slighlty ahead of Moose on my FA wish list, but he's only played more than 123 games ONCE in his career! That is very very concerning.

 

Moose improves the D. JD might worsen it.

 

JD is a better hitter, when healthy.

 

To me, these two are far ahead of the #3 non-pitching FAs on the market...

 

maybe Upton, Santana and Hosmer are next.

 

If we could sign Moustakas or JD Martinez plus a one-year deal from Duda, Morrison or Alonso, we could be all set. I'd also like to add Nunez or Howie Kendrick as insurance for Pedey, but I'm not sure how wide Henry's wallet will be opened.

 

There are trade options, but that will open new holes or further empty our farm.

 

Ideally, we could sign both JD and Moose. This would move Devers to 1b and squeeze HRam out of his 497 PAs. Devers could back up 3B, JD could back up the OF, and HRam could DH or play 1B when any of this happens or Devers or JD need some rest.

 

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Moose

6. Devers

7. Pedey

8. JBJ

9. Vaz

 

or

 

1. Betts

2. Beni

3. JD

4. Moose

5. Devers

6. Bogey

7. Pedey

8. JBJ

9. Vaz

 

 

Moon

 

Obviously we don't want to empty out our farm. But we have probably a 3 year window to win a title. Just look at all the 'busts' in our system. Owens, Ball, Johnson, Swihart on and on, they were all thought to be can't miss type. Bottom line is that more minor leaguers fail than succeed. Your odds are better to trade them if you can get value in return. I'm just not going to lose sleep over trading away Groome and others. They are long ways off from major league.

 

In reality, Betts and Devers are only two position players I wouldn't trade.

[harmony]

Swihart was awful and is most likely done

I hope Blake Swihart has a productive career but I had guarded expectations even before his injury.

 

I have drawn comparisons of Swihart, who peaked at No. 17 on Baseball America's prospect chart in 2015, to catchers Travis D'Arnaud (who peaked at No. 17 in 2012), Devin Mesoraco (who peaked at No. 16 in 2012) and Mike Zunino (who peaked at No. 17 in 2013). Those catchers have experienced varying degrees of success, including Mesoraco's All Star appearance in 2014, but collectively they demonstrate of uncertain futures of former top prospects.

 

Swihart's marginal bat may be good enough to play at catcher but his defensive skills behind the plate may be lacking. Swihart's trade value has fallen behind that of backup Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki, who was BA's 63rd-ranked prospect the year Swihart ranked No. 16. Plawecki, a superior defender who is a year older than Swihart, has posted wRC+ of 120 and 128 the last two seasons at Triple A and a wRC+ of 106 in 118 MLB plate appearances this year. Red Sox fans praised Swihart for his bat when he posted a wRC+ of 93 in his 2015 rookie season. Swihart has a sub-100 wRC+ in 483 career plate appearances at Triple A.

 

On this forum before the season started I wrote that Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 would determine whether he has more, less or the same trade value as a same-aged Jarrod Saltalamacchia had in July 2010 when the Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for spare parts. I also wrote that the Red Sox would be pleased if Swihart's age 25 season this year resembled Zunino's age 25 season in 2016. Swihart, like Zunino the year before, was a former 17th-ranked top prospect who was starting his age 25 at Triple A after a stint as a starting MLB catcher. Unfortunately Swihart regressed in his age 25 season while Zunino advanced.

 

Let's hope Swihart rebounds from his disappointing 2017 season.

[moonslav59]

Moon

 

Obviously we don't want to empty out our farm. But we have probably a 3 year window to win a title. Just look at all the 'busts' in our system. Owens, Ball, Johnson, Swihart on and on, they were all thought to be can't miss type. Bottom line is that more minor leaguers fail than succeed. Your odds are better to trade them if you can get value in return. I'm just not going to lose sleep over trading away Groome and others. They are long ways off from major league.

 

In reality, Betts and Devers are only two position players I wouldn't trade.

 

Ball was a high draft pick, but I don't ever remember anyone saying he was "can't miss". Johnson still has a shot, and I think he was always looked upon as a 3-4 starter, at best.

 

I also think we've had better luck with our best prospects than maybe you are giving them credit for.

 

I'm not against trading prospects.

 

We may have to do so to win in this window.