A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I keep reading Moustakas by you where you putting him? You sign him put him at 3rd right, now what do you do with Devers Trade him?

 

Every time I metion signing Mouse, I mention moving Devers to 1B, where he will likely end up eventually anyway.

[Nick]

(2) Base Tax Thresholds The Base Tax Threshold shall be $195 million in the 2017 Contract Year, $197 million in the 2018 Contract Year, $206 million in the 2019 Contract Year, $208 million in the 2020 Contract Year, and $210 million in the 2021 Contract Year.

 

Directly Out of MLB CBA

[Nick]

I read somewhere it was $207M.

 

The real number is the secondary penalty phase level, which I think is $237M, but if it's $227M, then we are squeezed, unless we decide to drop our draft pick 10 slots and go for broke.

 

My guess is DD will go for broke.

[OH FOY]

Every time I metion signing Mouse, I mention moving Devers to 1B, where he will likely end up eventually anyway.

 

How do you know? Evaluators in the Minors thought he could handle 3rd, don't you think if he didn't have the tools there, they would have moved him, while in the Minors.

Edited October 10, 2017 by OH FOY!

[sk7326]

Every time I metion signing Mouse, I mention moving Devers to 1B, where he will likely end up eventually anyway.

 

Why? He did not look like someone who needed to be moved.

[SoxnCycles]

Why? He did not look like someone who needed to be moved.

 

He doesn't need to be moved, but if he continues to have issues next season, it should be a consideration.

[moonslav59]

How do you know? Evaluators in the Minors thought he could handle 3rd, don't you think if he didn't have the tools there, they would have moved him, while in the Minors.

 

Word was the main reason the did not bring Devers up earlier was because of his defense.

[moonslav59]

Why? He did not look like someone who needed to be moved.

 

Did you watch the games?

 

Counting the playoffs, I think he was on pace for 45+ errors per 162 games.

 

I'm fine with keeping him at 3B and letting him learn "on the job", but I think he'd be better at 1B than 3B.

[moonslav59]

He doesn't need to be moved, but if he continues to have issues next season, it should be a consideration.

 

No, he doesn't NEED TO BE MOVED, but what if JD really wants to play elsewhere. All that is left in free agency, is Moustakas.

 

My first choice is JD.

[sk7326]

Did you watch the games?

 

Counting the playoffs, I think he was on pace for 45+ errors per 162 games.

 

I'm fine with keeping him at 3B and letting him learn "on the job", but I think he'd be better at 1B than 3B.

 

Small sample size - range factors were okay (again, small samples). The errors number doesn't mean much to me compared to him possibly being a potted plant. (which he isn't - he's clearly a pretty good athlete)

[Nick]

Per Moon

 

"You missed my point.

 

I'm saying we have less money than you hinted at to be near the limit.

 

My guess is, we go way over the limit but not enough to reach the second tier penalties. Those penalties are not really that awful, but I think we try to stay under it.

 

On the luxury tax...

 

The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax.

 

Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots.

 

If we come in at about $197M before any signings (see A Realistic View at 2018: Part I), we'll have just under $40M to spend and not get the major penalty. That's enough to get JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. Maybe we go large for just 2 guys. We coudl even go more than $40M over for just this one year and hope to go lower next year as several players come off the books, including maybe HRam."

 

I believe Henry will go along with whatever is propsed by DD. Just my gut feeling.

[jacksonianmarch]

$40 mil for Duda, Nunez and Martinez may be cutting it close. Also, it leaves you absolutely no room to improve at the deadline if you somehow succeed in getting all 3. You also have literally no replacements in AAA to be contingencies.

[Spudboy]

No, by himself he is not.

 

We can easily afford $25M, but if we trade Beni and Bogey, we'll need a SS and still a DH and/or 1Bman. I'm not sure we can afford Stanton's $25M plus what it will cost to fill the holes we have and the new holes created when trading for him.

 

I'd love to find a way to get him without creating new problems elsewhere.

 

I never suggested trading either Beni or Bogey. My idea replaces a spectacular defensive outfielder with a spectacular offensive outfielder.

 

I do love and value JBJ but you have to give to get in this case.

[Spudboy]

19

 

23 got 27 or more.

 

Only 4 had less HRs than Boston's 25.

 

So it is not a position where 30-40 HR power is essential.

 

I look at the aggregate. Add 40-50 with Stanton.

 

Done deal.

[Spudboy]

How do you know? Evaluators in the Minors thought he could handle 3rd, don't you think if he didn't have the tools there, they would have moved him, while in the Minors.

 

This reminds me of Money Ball where Been is sitting with his scouts and they are talking about how a player "looks".

 

Yeah, Devers does look like he has a "soft" body. This leads some here to believe that he will pork out and become another Fatboy Pablow.

 

What happens if he does not? Is it possible that he becomes closer to Beltre? He has good foot speed and agility now. Is it possible that as he matures his body weight stays more or less the same and his skills do not diminish significantly?

 

I'd leave him where he is until such point that he "grows out of" the position.

 

He is 20. No need to make rash decisions.

 

I see him cleaning up his throws ( he does have a strong arm already ) and becoming a really solid defensive 3rd baseman.

[harmony]

(2) Base Tax Thresholds The Base Tax Threshold shall be $195 million in the 2017 Contract Year, $197 million in the 2018 Contract Year, $206 million in the 2019 Contract Year, $208 million in the 2020 Contract Year, and $210 million in the 2021 Contract Year.

 

Directly Out of MLB CBA

From MLB.com:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

[oldtimer]

Looking at things from a different angle, our most glaring weaknesses this season and then dealing with them by trade and acquisition is an approach I take when considering changes.

 

Glaring weaknesses (Not involved with Pitching):

 

1. Widespread fall in the offensive output of our lineup

 

To me the general malaise of our offense is at least partially on the coaching. We lacked aggressiveness at the plate and it often looked like policy.

 

2. Lack of power up and down the lineup

 

Clearly we need to bring in at least one power hitting player and look for a second if we trade away any of our current younger players

 

3. Poor hitting by JBJ for sustained periods

 

JBJ has been in the organization for long enough to establish himself. He remains erratic offensively and unless something sparks in him, he is likely to remain erratic

 

4. Poor hitting by Bogey for sustained periods

 

Seems like he should do more and may with continued sound coaching. Would like to see a remake of his PAs and swing. More aggressiveness and power

 

5. Injuries to Pedroia and or aging process that reduced his contribution at the end of the season

 

Pedroia was no help to us in the playoffs. Maybe when he heals he will contribute again at a high level, but I doubt he can go more than90 games a year based on recent history.

 

6. Poor quality defense by Devers

 

His throwing is poor and management commented that he is likely to gain weight as he matures. He may well fit at 1st better than at 3rd. We need his bat so it is important to find his best spot

 

7. Poor throwing defensively by Beni

 

Beni has a decent arm and adequate for Fenway left field. His issue is accuracy and having a preconception of where to thrown under various circumstances. It is coachable and needs to be done.

 

8. Lack of capable hitting utility players once Nunez was injured the other

 

Our utility players in general were weak other than Nunez. Do we resign him and risk his knee injury may recur next season? I am for jettisoning Holt, Young and Davis.

 

9. Baserunning issues

 

Coaching or management issues seem to be involved. Do we make the change where we can at the management/coaching level?

[Emp9]

I haven’t read past page one yet, but right off the get go I would focus on major pieces, not complimentary pieces (like a 4th OFer for example). DD has been very good at acquiring pieces we need at the deadlines (even w/ Nunez’s injury, which wasn’t foreseeable). Fill them in as we need to.

 

I agree we need a big bat (a Stanton, or a Votto). I agree that we aren’t a big offense team. I do think we are close to one though. One player, like the ones mentioned above, could bring this offense back to where it was. One player. Not 2 4th OFers and 3 Utility players. We may need two big acquisitions (a big bat through trade, & a #2/#3 SP via FA).

[Emp9]

Moving Devers to 1st is a retarded idea.

 

Get Stanton and sign Moreland to a reasonable deal.

 

That is if Stanton is really on the block.

 

All these convoluted moves just to add power and runs are not necessary if you grab only one player that brings 40 HR and can still play a position.

 

Power is the rarest of commodities. Real thumping power , that is. A generational power hitter like Stanton is an obvious move for a team with deep pockets.

 

Poo-pooing the idea shows real reluctance to see reality.

 

Without a Stanton type player the 2018 Sox won't be in the hunt to challenge the Yankees for 1st.

 

Enough of the excuses and enigma s***.

 

This team needs some jolt.

 

I agree. I would also suggest Votto. How long does he need to rot away in Cin? Are the Braves competing or are they still rebuilding? Is Freeman available? I’ll start w/ Bogey...

[Emp9]

Go big or go home.

 

You can always add supporting players to anchors, such as Stanton or Votto. What you can't do is keep adding supporting talent to mediocre group and expect great results. Yes, our offense right now is mediocre.

 

Do we wait another year to confirm what we know to be true? Our offense sucks. No power in power league?

 

This is where I’m at too

[cp176]

I agree. I would also suggest Votto. How long does he need to rot away in Cin? Are the Braves competing or are they still rebuilding? Is Freeman available? I’ll start w/ Bogey...

 

I like me some Votto too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Sign Moreland to DH?

 

We add nothing from this year's team. We shrink our 3-4 year window- now 2-3 year window to a 1-2 year window- all to wait for Machado?

 

If we sign a 1Bman, it means Devers stays at 3B.

 

 

No, Moreland plays 1b. The DH might be Pedroia but it isn't easy to evaluate that situation without knowing more about the medicals. My guess is that Pedroia won't last an entire season at 2b--he will need time in the DH spot in future seasons.

 

It would be a mistake to sign someone to a bad contract just to add some HRs to 1b. You wait for Machado and hope that the offense will improve in 2018 with growth form guys like Devers and Benintendi (and a better year from Betts). The Red Sox did win the division, their offense was good enough for that. Their starting pitching failed them in the playoffs for the second year in a row.

 

I'm not sure how the Red Sox address the starting pitching problems. I'm not sure why some guys are great in the postseason and other guys are Chris Sale and Rick Porcello.

Edited October 10, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Votto doesn't want to leave the Reds. I don't think the Red Sox have enough minor league talent to acquire Stanton. Machado will cost bucks, but not prospects.

 

JD Martinez is interesting, but I'm not sure where you play him?

Edited October 10, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Emp9]

Votto doesn't want to leave the Reds. I don't think the Red Sox have enough minor league talent to acquire Stanton. Machado will cost bucks, but not prospects.

 

JD Martinez is interesting, but I'm not sure where you play him?

 

I haven’t thought of Machado. It might be a good solution for a big bat and better left side defense and like you said, no prospects given up. I like that idea. I personally like Votto or Stanton better (if available of course... that goes w/out saying), but I’m keeping an open mind. Was also hoping to save a FA signing for another SP... like Lynn. I’ve heard Votto likes Cincy and doesn’t want to leave, but jesus man... he’s rotting away there. There’s something very noble about wanting to stay, but...

 

As far as prospects, i think there is enough to pry Stanton or Votto away plus you have to consider thier salary off thier respective team’s books. There’s always a deal to be made and the ‘DD’ stands for ‘Dudley Do-Right’ ... so he always gets his man. Umm., Right?

[moonslav59]

Small sample size - range factors were okay (again, small samples). The errors number doesn't mean much to me compared to him possibly being a potted plant. (which he isn't - he's clearly a pretty good athlete)

 

Agreed. I have never said he can not improve or eventually be a plus.

 

I am concerned his learning curve may hurt our chances next year, but I'm fine with keeping him at 3B.

 

My first choice is JD. We don't always get our first choices, even if we outbid everyone.

 

My second choice is Moustakas.

 

My third choice is a trade for Stanton, Donaldson or Beltre. I do not think Votto will come here.

[moonslav59]

So it is not a position where 30-40 HR power is essential.

 

I look at the aggregate. Add 40-50 with Stanton.

 

Done deal.

 

It's essential for us.

[sk7326]

Agreed. I have never said he can not improve or eventually be a plus.

 

I am concerned his learning curve may hurt our chances next year, but I'm fine with keeping him at 3B.

 

My first choice is JD. We don't always get our first choices, even if we outbid everyone.

 

My second choice is Moustakas.

 

My third choice is a trade for Stanton, Donaldson or Beltre. I do not think Votto will come here.

 

The team's defense was a positive contributor to run prevention - I think there is time for him to figure this out ... and also if you want kids, you have to live with process. This is not done with a microwave.

 

I think some of the JD types will slip through the cracks - teams did not give Edwin Encarnacion years last year ... I think that "type" will be an easier get than it looks. I think Votto and the Reds do like each other mutually.

 

I don't think the stuff needed to deal for Stanton makes the trade worthwhile.

[moonslav59]

Looking at things from a different angle, our most glaring weaknesses this season and then dealing with them by trade and acquisition is an approach I take when considering changes.

 

Glaring weaknesses (Not involved with Pitching):

 

1. Widespread fall in the offensive output of our lineup

 

To me the general malaise of our offense is at least partially on the coaching. We lacked aggressiveness at the plate and it often looked like policy.

 

2. Lack of power up and down the lineup

 

Clearly we need to bring in at least one power hitting player and look for a second if we trade away any of our current younger players

 

3. Poor hitting by JBJ for sustained periods

 

JBJ has been in the organization for long enough to establish himself. He remains erratic offensively and unless something sparks in him, he is likely to remain erratic

 

4. Poor hitting by Bogey for sustained periods

 

Seems like he should do more and may with continued sound coaching. Would like to see a remake of his PAs and swing. More aggressiveness and power

 

5. Injuries to Pedroia and or aging process that reduced his contribution at the end of the season

 

Pedroia was no help to us in the playoffs. Maybe when he heals he will contribute again at a high level, but I doubt he can go more than90 games a year based on recent history.

 

6. Poor quality defense by Devers

 

His throwing is poor and management commented that he is likely to gain weight as he matures. He may well fit at 1st better than at 3rd. We need his bat so it is important to find his best spot

 

7. Poor throwing defensively by Beni

 

Beni has a decent arm and adequate for Fenway left field. His issue is accuracy and having a preconception of where to thrown under various circumstances. It is coachable and needs to be done.

 

8. Lack of capable hitting utility players once Nunez was injured the other

 

Our utility players in general were weak other than Nunez. Do we resign him and risk his knee injury may recur next season? I am for jettisoning Holt, Young and Davis.

 

9. Baserunning issues

 

Coaching or management issues seem to be involved. Do we make the change where we can at the management/coaching level?

 

Good summary of our most pressing issues.

 

We only have a couple open positions: 1B/DH and DH-utility, unless we trade a starter.

 

We have to make the most of those fillings.

 

Bringing back Moreland makes little sense, unless he's all we can afford after trading for Stanton and maybe signing someone else to fill the hole(s) left by the trade.

 

Free agency has not worked well for us. JD or Moustakas could tank as soon as we sign them, but to me, they offer our best chance at greatly improving our power without giving up anyone.

 

We can hop others, like Betts, Beni, JBJ and Bogey (maybe Vaz) add some power from their 2017 numbers. I don't think that's unreasonable to project. We can get more HRs from a full season of Devers as well.

 

I like JD best, but I hate the idea of signing basically a DH-only guy. He could fill in as our 4th OF'er- another significant need area, but I's prefer a 1Bman that can hit 35+ HRs. Moustakas would probably hit 35+ and improve our 3B defense, but maybe our 1B defense would suffer by having Devers & HRam share time there and at DH.

 

It's not an easy choice, and those aren't the only two choices, but to me, they are clearly the two best FA options out there right now.

[moonslav59]

No, Moreland plays 1b. The DH might be Pedroia but it isn't easy to evaluate that situation without knowing more about the medicals. My guess is that Pedroia won't last an entire season at 2b--he will need time in the DH spot in future seasons.

 

It would be a mistake to sign someone to a bad contract just to add some HRs to 1b. You wait for Machado and hope that the offense will improve in 2018 with growth form guys like Devers and Benintendi (and a better year from Betts). The Red Sox did win the division, their offense was good enough for that. Their starting pitching failed them in the playoffs for the second year in a row.

 

I'm not sure how the Red Sox address the starting pitching problems. I'm not sure why some guys are great in the postseason and other guys are Chris Sale and Rick Porcello.

 

Uou could sign Moustakas this winter, move Devers to 1B/DH with HRam.

 

Starve HRam of PAs to keep the option from vesting.

 

Sign Machado next winter and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.

[Kimmi]

Stanton is a pipe dream. I don't like trading away from the team to add when a similar comp is a free agent.

 

Bingo!

 

Also, the contract would be significantly less steep than Stanton's. Trading for Stanton likely creates holes elsewhere, in addition to being strapped with that monster contract.