2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Hitch]

$4m a year for Nunez is extremely good business.

[Kimmi]

This puts Holt at risk for DFA as well. Although his option might give him a slight advantage over Marrero and Brentz. ..

 

Yeah, it's hard to give up a depth player with options over one without. We'll see how badly the Red Sox need that $2 mil.

[Kimmi]

Cool. A $4 million AAV is nice.

 

Dave did good with this deal. He not only got Nunez back for a good price, but he was creative with the AAV. We are right around the point where we can still sign JD and stay under the big tax hit. That $2 mil might be the difference.

[Kimmi]

FWIW my suspicion is that Marrero would be let go before Holt. Mainly because of some comments I read about Holt by DD. He seems to really like him and thinks he's all over the concussion/vertigo stuff.

 

Holt can be a very good value for $2 mil. I am not in any hurry to DFA him.

[fxkatt]

Corey Dickerson is about to be put on wavers by the Rays. (god, those Florida teams have been giving away guys left and right--Odorizzi today for nothing also) He hit 282 last year with 27 homers. Why not grab him and then sign Cobb and a reliever to boot.

[Kimmi]

$4m a year for Nunez is extremely good business.

 

Yes it is. Dombrowski did a good job with that.

 

And I read today that Nunez' preference was always to return to the Red Sox. I know that's what any player is going to say, but it makes me feel better.

 

Also read that the Sox gave Nunez a workout in December, but he didn't pass. Gave him another one in January, he improved but he still didn't pass. So it appears that the 2 sides have been working together on a reunion for a couple of months.

[cp176]

Do we have players on our team that you consider to be dinks?

 

no!

[notin]

Corey Dickerson is about to be put on wavers by the Rays. (god, those Florida teams have been giving away guys left and right--Odorizzi today for nothing also) He hit 282 last year with 27 homers. Why not grab him and then sign Cobb and a reliever to boot.

 

Dickerson would be a good acquisition. The Sox have a chance to work out a deal before he hits waivers in a few days. Once he does, forget about him.

 

harmony proposed Johnson/Brentz for Dickerson. I suppose it's possible, but also a beatable offer...

[harmony]

Dickerson would be a good acquisition. The Sox have a chance to work out a deal before he hits waivers in a few days. Once he does, forget about him.

 

harmony proposed Johnson/Brentz for Dickerson. I suppose it's possible, but also a beatable offer...

Well, Blake Swihart is out of options as well ...

[fxkatt]

I wonder if Dickerson bargaining will be one more reason for holding off on JD--and LoMO (or is he already signed by now) In any case, Dickerson's salary is 6 mill this year... so get him, then onward to Cobb. (six very good starters is almost a necessity)

[cp176]

Do we have players on our team that you consider to be dinks?

 

I actually think that when it comes to character in general this organization has done a very good job in general of bringing in quality people. I do continue to believe that many of the things that can't be measured are far more important than many things that can be measured. Qualities like the ability to lead, mental toughness, and character in general most often outweigh measurable statistics in my mind. I'm a fan for life but I want a team that I like as opposed to one I don't like. I really am and have always been a believer that good things generally happen more often to good people. Character counts in other words. Wins and losses just take care of themselves but I think good people tend to win more than people of questionable character. Once again, I don't think that we have one dink on this team. We have some nasty tough players but good people can certainly be nasty and tough. Obviously as I have stated before I would like to see some better leadership and fewer of what I consider to be mental mistakes but I am really looking forward to this year. One reason is because I do expect Price to be more like what we have all wanted to see and with Sale and Price leading the way, life in Boston could be very good.

[Natick to NC]

Well, Blake Swihart is out of options as well ...

 

Please noooooooooooooooooooooooo

[moonslav59]

FWIW my suspicion is that Marrero would be let go before Holt. Mainly because of some comments I read about Holt by DD. He seems to really like him and thinks he's all over the concussion/vertigo stuff.

 

Marrero's lack of options makes him a prime candidate for being DFA'd or phantom DL'd.

 

If we sign JD, it might be Brentz.

[moonslav59]

harmony proposed Johnson/Brentz for Dickerson. I suppose it's possible, but also a beatable offer...

 

That would help solve our roster crunch issues a little, but yes, someone else may be able to top that offer.

 

How about Hembree, Johnson and Brentz?

 

Maybe try to expand a trade to include Archer.

 

[harmony]

That would help solve our roster crunch issues a little, but yes, someone else may be able to top that offer.

 

How about Hembree, Johnson and Brentz?

 

Maybe try to expand a trade to include Archer.

 

The Red Sox could expand the trade to include five years of Andrew Benintendi for four years of Chris Archer at $33.75 million.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

 

... but the Rays would likely ask for more.

[notin]

Well, Blake Swihart is out of options as well ...

 

Swihart may also be who the Rays would prefer in a trade for Dickerson. ....

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox could expand the trade to include five years of Andrew Benintendi for four years of Chris Archer at $33.75 million.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

 

... but the Rays would likely ask for more.

 

I wouldn't do it, but this might get TB to say yes...

 

Beni, ERod, Brentz and Marrero

 

for

 

Archer & Dickerson

[Natick to NC]

I wouldn't do it, but this might get TB to say yes...

 

Beni, ERod, Brentz and Marrero

 

for

 

Archer & Dickerson

 

Shoooot I wouldn't Trade Benny for Archer strait up hellllllllll no....tell you what they would have to give me Dickerson ,Archer and 35 percent of there gross profits for Benny ....

Edited February 19, 2018 by Natick to NC

[notin]

I wouldn't do it, but this might get TB to say yes...

 

Beni, ERod, Brentz and Marrero

 

for

 

Archer & Dickerson

 

Would you deal Swihart and Johnson for Dickerson?

[Natick to NC]

Would you deal Swihart and Johnson for Dickerson?

 

Hmmm Johnson strait up yes we have a deal .Notin they are dumping this player no freaking way they get Blake on a dump .

[harmony]

Shoooot I wouldn't Trade Benny for Archer strait up hellllllllll no....tell you what they would have to give me Dickerson ,Archer and 35 percent of there gross profits for Benny ....

Four years of Chris Archer, who is projected to post 4.3 WAR this season after posting 16.2 fWAR over the last four years, for five years of Andrew Benintendi, who is projected to post 3.0 WAR this season after posting 2.2 fWAR last year.

 

I doubt the Rays would trade Archer for Benintendi straight up although the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings had Archer at No. 16 and Benintendi at No. 26:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/

[moonslav59]

Would you deal Swihart and Johnson for Dickerson?

 

It seems like a good deal for us, but...

 

If we sign JD, then Dickerson has no place to play near FT.

 

We lose one of our 6th starter options.

 

 

I guess, if we signed JD and traded JBJ for a SP'er, then Dickerson could play LF and DH, helping to squeeze HRam from vesting and giving us a nice LH'd bat.

 

It's hard to pass up a career .866 OPS vs RHPs guy.

 

Dickerson career numbers vs RHPs per 650 PAs

 

.284 32 83 (38 2B + 3B) (.331 OBP)

 

Bonus: +8.7 UZR/150 over the last 2 seasons combined in LF & OF.

 

 

I'd say yes, but if we sign JD, Dickerson might put us over the major penalty limit. If so, I'd have to say no.

Edited February 19, 2018 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Hmmm Johnson strait up yes we have a deal .Notin they are dumping this player no freaking way they get Blake on a dump .

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for most hitters including Blake Swihart, projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of a negative 1.3:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

ZiPS projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 307 plate appearances while FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Swihart with 2018 WAR of a negative 0.1 each in 70 and 50 plate appearances, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

However, Marcel has more optimistic 2018 projections for Swihart with a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

Four years of that level of player is what a team gets in a salary dump.

Edited February 19, 2018 by harmony

[mvp 78]

How can these projections be based on anything? Swihart hasn’t had a healthy season since 2015. No one can realistically say what he can do at the moment.

[harmony]

How can these projections be based on anything? Swihart hasn’t had a healthy season since 2015. No one can realistically say what he can do at the moment.

If Blake Swihart can prove that he is healthy and productive, his trade value will go up.

 

Until then potential trade partners are stuck with the uncertainty of a nearly 26-year-old defensively challenged catcher who posted a .187/.261/.284/.545 line in 250 minor league plate appearances last year.

[a700hitter]

How can these projections be based on anything? Swihart hasn’t had a healthy season since 2015. No one can realistically say what he can do at the moment.

This is one of those instances when the statheads go off the rails into fiction and fantasy. Just nonsense.

[harmony]

This is one of those instances when the statheads go off the rails into fiction and fantasy. Just nonsense.

Does that mean you discard Marcel's Blake Swihart projection of a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances?

 

Just nonsense?

[a700hitter]

Does that mean you discard Marcel's Blake Swihart projection of a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances?

 

Just nonsense?

It is as good as any other guess... I guess.

[cp176]

This is one of those instances when the statheads go off the rails into fiction and fantasy. Just nonsense.

 

One of my questions would be why would anyone trade a commodity that you really need as in hitting for a commodity that you are not desperate for? I would love to see Archer in Boston but I think that the Rays are likely to be willing to talk trade for a lot less than a hitter who could help us a great deal going forward. I really hope that our players are able to block out all of these analytical reports.

[oldtimer]

The Red Sox could expand the trade to include five years of Andrew Benintendi for four years of Chris Archer at $33.75 million.

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

 

... but the Rays would likely ask for more.

 

I wouldn't let go of Benintendi for anything other than a superstar. The kid has great potential for a lot of years.