2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Jack Flap]

I'm not sure what it would take to trade for Stanton, so it's hard to compare which plan is best.

 

This is pretty much where I am, too. Opinions seem to vary wildly on what type of return the Marlins should be able to get, so until we know for sure what we're looking at, I'm in the "it depends" category.

 

I do think Santana will start to look better and better if the asking prices for Stanton and Martinez remain high.

[moonslav59]

This is pretty much where I am, too. Opinions seem to vary wildly on what type of return the Marlins should be able to get, so until we know for sure what we're looking at, I'm in the "it depends" category.

 

I do think Santana will start to look better and better if the asking prices for Stanton and Martinez remain high.

 

I agree.

 

JD and Stanton are Plan A and Plan 1A

 

Santana is plan B

 

Moose still looks like Plan C, to me.

[notin]

Here's the fabulous thing about WAR. The scenario you described shows up in a player's base running stats, which is part of the calculation of WAR. So yes, it does show.

 

I have to crack up at all the people who try to bring up situations that WAR doesn't account for as an attempt to discredit it. And then they'll go back to batting average and errors, neither of which show up in any of their scenarios.

[moonslav59]

I have to crack up at all the people who try to bring up situations that WAR doesn't account for as an attempt to discredit it. And then they'll go back to batting average and errors, neither of which show up in any of their scenarios.

 

I observe a guy is great: therefor he must be great.

 

[OH FOY]

I have to crack up at all the people who try to bring up situations that WAR doesn't account for as an attempt to discredit it. And then they'll go back to batting average and errors, neither of which show up in any of their scenarios.

 

I don't discredit it, I just don't use it like others. Baseball is a game of situations, and many times it relies on smart ballplayers to win a game, who might not be All-Stars, but they do an important job, winning a game.

If you use it knock yourself out, but I don't.

Edited November 13, 2017 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

I observe a guy is great: therefor he must be great.

 

I go to a lot of Minor League Games, all you have is your eyes there.

[cp176]

I observe a guy is great: therefor he must be great.

 

 

 

Really - you want to go this route again? Not everyone agrees that advanced analytics tell the story in its entirety. No one that I can think of discredits the use of analytics as a tool to be used. Kind of looks to me as though if you don't agree with me and my small circle than you must be wrong and just don't get it. In this on going great debate about the over or under use of analytics, there is no right and no wrong IMO.

[cp176]

I go to a lot of Minor League Games, all you have is your eyes there.

 

 

And that is absolutely ok.

[notin]

I agree.

 

JD and Stanton are Plan A and Plan 1A

 

Santana is plan B

 

Moose still looks like Plan C, to me.

 

To me, Stanton is worth re-arranging the outfield for. JD Martinez is not, especially since they'd be getting very few prime years on a long contract. Not sure about Martinez' ability or desire to play first or DH, but his age strikes me as a train to avoid the contract he wants.

 

Santana is a good plan B if he is ok with the predicted 4 year deal. I'm no huge Hosmer fan, but I'd take the prime years of Hosmer over the post-prime Martinez.

 

But I think I'd prefer Moustakas over either Hosmer or Martinez. He certainly has the power advantage. His deal won't be be as crippling. And his defense is actually quite good despite oft-repeated posts that it isn't. Especially since next year he won't be coming off an injury-plagued season.

 

So my preferences in order

 

1. Stanton

2. Santana

3. Moustakas

4. Hosmer

5. Martinez.

 

I have a feeling Dombrowski has a very different order, at least after the top spot...

[moonslav59]

Really - you want to go this route again? Not everyone agrees that advanced analytics tell the story in its entirety. No one that I can think of discredits the use of analytics as a tool to be used. Kind of looks to me as though if you don't agree with me and my small circle than you must be wrong and just don't get it. In this on going great debate about the over or under use of analytics, there is no right and no wrong IMO.

 

I can understand not trusting advanced analytics, even though UZR/150 is based on observations by humans trained to be supposedly unbiased.

 

I cannot accept any comparative analysis based solely on one person's observations, including my own. Unless you watch every play of every MLB game, how can anyone claim Bogey is average or not without using data or some sort?

 

I have no problem with someone saying, "Based on my observations, I think Boget is a decent or good defensive SS, but when you use the words "average" or "above average" you are now comparing him to other MLB shortstops that we only see 3-18 games a year.

 

I don't totally trust UZR/150, and even they say a season's worth of data might not be definitive, but I trust a 2-3 year UZR/150 number over anyone's observations (including my own) when talking comparatively.

[moonslav59]

To me, Stanton is worth re-arranging the outfield for. JD Martinez is not, especially since they'd be getting very few prime years on a long contract. Not sure about Martinez' ability or desire to play first or DH, but his age strikes me as a train to avoid the contract he wants.

 

Santana is a good plan B if he is ok with the predicted 4 year deal. I'm no huge Hosmer fan, but I'd take the prime years of Hosmer over the post-prime Martinez.

 

But I think I'd prefer Moustakas over either Hosmer or Martinez. He certainly has the power advantage. His deal won't be be as crippling. And his defense is actually quite good despite oft-repeated posts that it isn't. Especially since next year he won't be coming off an injury-plagued season.

 

So my preferences in order

 

1. Stanton

2. Santana

3. Moustakas

4. Hosmer

5. Martinez.

 

I have a feeling Dombrowski has a very different order, at least after the top spot...

 

II'm okay with your order, except Hosmer over JD.

 

I'd sign Duda to 1 year or Morrison to 2 years before I'd sign Hosmer to 4-5 years.

[harmony]

An ESPN survey has Giancarlo Stanton going to the Cardinals and J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter

[harmony]

FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron offers his analysis of 50 free agent contracts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

[S5Dewey]

I observe a guy is great: therefor he must be great.

 

 

I believe in statistics, therefore I will make disparaging and condescending comments toward anyone who believes there's room for anything other than advanced metrics in rating players.

Edited November 13, 2017 by S5Dewey

[Bellhorn04]

Will there ever be an end to all the vitriolic comments aimed back and forth by new school/old school people? It's crazy. We need to accept and respect that we all have different ways of looking at things. And in the end it doesn't matter...we're all just fans.

[sk7326]

Will there ever be an end to all the vitriolic comments aimed back and forth by new school/old school people? It's crazy. We need to accept and respect that we all have different ways of looking at things. And in the end it doesn't matter...we're all just fans.

 

Indeed - and teams use BOTH ... there are matters of degree, and matters of specifics ... but it is a combination. And the two views are also kind of answering different things anyway.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron offers his analysis of 50 free agent contracts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

 

He can't count.

 

He has JD going for $26M x 6 = $156M.

 

It's $166M.

 

[moonslav59]

I believe in statistics, therefore I will make disparaging and condescending comments toward anyone who believes there's room for anything other than advanced metrics in rating players.

 

That doesn't sound like you, Dewey.

 

LOL.

 

BTW, it's about "ranking" players not "rating" them.

 

I'm fine with anyone rating a player based on observation or their own chosen data, but when you compare them to other players by ranking them or saying they are "average" or top 10, then I don't see how anyone can realistically do that solely by observation,

when they do not see everyone play enough games to form that opinion.

 

Take a guy like Joey Votto. I've only seen him play in 8 games over his whole career. He has a .791 OPS vs us with zero HRs and 1 RBI. Would I be justified in saying he's a below average 1Bman going just by my own personal observations?

 

I guess so, right?

 

No. I'd look at the numbers and see he's one of the best 1Bmen in MLB.

 

 

Look, this whole thing started over Bogey being called an "good" or "average" defensive SS. My observations would call him below average. I'd guess he's bottom 10 without looking at the data. The data shows he's just below average on UZR/150 and the worst on DRS. I'm not trying to be condescending by saying I think those who label him average or above average based on observations are wrong. For one, my observations are different from there's , so it's not just about data. Plus, the data shows he is not average, if you use both UZR/150 and DRS. The fielding bible also has never ranked Bogey in the top 15. That's based on observations, too.

[harmony]

He can't count.

 

He has JD going for $26M x 6 = $156M.

 

It's $166M.

 

Huh?

[cp176]

Will there ever be an end to all the vitriolic comments aimed back and forth by new school/old school people? It's crazy. We need to accept and respect that we all have different ways of looking at things. And in the end it doesn't matter...we're all just fans.

 

I agree with you very much here Bell. Sadly, I think that in today's world compromise is nothing more than verbiage. In my world, it is possible to believe in the best parts of arguments for both sides. Very few people - perhaps even none - are either right or wrong 100% of the time. I'm guessing that if you can take the best of the two combined - old school/new school - you might get the right school.

[a700hitter]

Will there ever be an end to all the vitriolic comments aimed back and forth by new school/old school people? It's crazy. We need to accept and respect that we all have different ways of looking at things. And in the end it doesn't matter...we're all just fans.

People think that they can make definitive arguments with stats. I like the stats, but nothing is definitive about players, strategy or just about anything to do with baseball. I realize that, and so do you. Others don't. We are as you say "just fans." Proof positive to me that almost nothing in baseball can be stated definitively regardless of statistical support is the fact that despite 30 highly paid front offices with state of the art software and the best statisticians, teams make many many mistakes in their personnel decisions. Do they even make more good decisions than bad ones? And that is with state of the art technology and much more in the way of observational scouting reports than any of us could possibly amass. So, it is beyond silly when a message board member declares himself/herself correct about anything. Edited November 13, 2017 by a700hitter

[Slasher9]

In addition to being a HR hitting God...Giancarlo is clutch.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi , There is much value in advanced metrics , but credibility is lost when we hear things like " home runs are overrated " . That is over think. Home runs equal an instant run / runs. And often are the difference in the game. How can that be overrated ? If it is stats that you care about ; home runs greatly enhance OPS and ( I guess ) WAR. If 59 home runs did not get your attention , how many would it take ? This does not mean I am advocating a trade for Stanton if it involved giving up a lot of talent in addition to the money. But a home run is the best possible result for a hitter. Not at all overrated.

 

I think that when I use the word 'overrated', some misinterpret that to mean that I'm saying that they are unimportant or useless. That is not at all what I'm saying. Home runs, like stolen bases are important, and have their place in baseball. But I do think they are overrated, meaning that some fans place more importance or value on them than they warrant. The bottom line in offense is scoring runs. There are other offensive metrics that correlate better with scoring runs than home runs.

[Kimmi]

We can get Stanton or JD and still keep our OF intact.

 

Yes we can, and I do hope that we keep our OF intact, regardless of who we acquire.

[Kimmi]

This is pretty much where I am, too. Opinions seem to vary wildly on what type of return the Marlins should be able to get, so until we know for sure what we're looking at, I'm in the "it depends" category.

 

I do think Santana will start to look better and better if the asking prices for Stanton and Martinez remain high.

 

The only thing about Santana is that he has that darn QO attached to him. During a time that we're trying (hopefully) to replenish the farm, the QO penalties hurt.

[moonslav59]

Huh?

 

Oops

[Kimmi]

I have to crack up at all the people who try to bring up situations that WAR doesn't account for as an attempt to discredit it. And then they'll go back to batting average and errors, neither of which show up in any of their scenarios.

 

WAR is not perfect, but it's pretty comprehensive. It takes into consideration more of these scenarios than traditional stats do, which is why there was a need for advanced stats to begin with.

[Kimmi]

In addition to being a HR hitting God...Giancarlo is clutch.

 

Giancarlo's 2017 Clutch stat: -2.03, which is categorized as 'Awful'

Career Clutch stat: -7.67

 

Just sayin'.

[notin]

I can understand not trusting advanced analytics, even though UZR/150 is based on observations by humans trained to be supposedly unbiased.

 

I cannot accept any comparative analysis based solely on one person's observations, including my own. Unless you watch every play of every MLB game, how can anyone claim Bogey is average or not without using data or some sort?

 

 

To me, it depends on the context of the comparison.

 

For example, if someone says "Player X is the best defensive shortstop I've ever seen." Well, not much arguing there. I don't know who you've seen. And as I don't, this testimony doesn't mean much when anyone says it. Not even mal...

[moonslav59]

To me, it depends on the context of the comparison.

 

For example, if someone says "Player X is the best defensive shortstop I've ever seen." Well, not much arguing there. I don't know who you've seen. And as I don't, this testimony doesn't mean much when anyone says it. Not even mal...

 

Yes, saying someone is "the best I've ever seen" is different from saying someone is average or top 10 or bottom 10.