Should DD be fired?

[Larry Cook]

You don't know my position by now?

 

I was firmly against the Kimbrel & Pom trades, but not because I didn't think both would help the team. I thought we gave up too much and should have "saved" our prospects for deals like the Sale trade (and Quintana or possibly Stanton). P & K did a wonderful job for us in 2017.

 

I am not against trading away top prospects. I suggest those type trades all the time. I loved the Sale trade and was okay with the Thorburg trade.

 

We do have Devers and Beni to look forward to long term, but we need a balance of upcoming, cheap, young players to compliment the expensive vets. The balance will tip wildly in 2020 or perhaps with some massive spending, 2021. We are not the "Dodgers East", unless Henry decides to change his spending habits. Until I see it, I'm thinking "cliff". To me, it's close to being a sure bet we become mediocre or the top spender by 2021.

 

Here's soxprospects 2021 "futures roster". Tell me how you fill in the many holes with a limited spending budget?

 

Price

_____

_____

ERod

Groome, Mata, Scherff

 

Closer: _____ (Houck)

_______

_______

Barnes

Workman

Beeks

Johnson, Shawaryn

 

C _______ (Baldwin, Romanski)

1B Travis, Ockimey

2B Pedey

SS ______ (Chatham, Lin, Hernandez)

3B Devers

LF _____ (Lin)

CF Beni

RF _____ (Brannen)

DH Chavis

 

There's no way the prospect list we have now, fill enough holes. We are going to need massive spending and/or incredibly good luck with prospect development and signings between now and then.

 

It blows my mind that some feel like keeping all of those prospects wouldn't have made a significant difference -not just in young talent but in cost control- in 2020 or 2021 and beyond.

 

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

Espinoza

Dubon

Basabe

 

These probably won't amount to much, but one might:

Logan Allen

Asuaje

Guerra

Basabe (the other one)

Diaz

Rijo

 

I like our recent draft and international signings, but I still think the cliff is far from "mythical". It is probable to highly probable.

 

 

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list.

 

I think mata throws a really nice ball and with a little more control and a little sharper secondary stuff, he could be in Portland by the end of next seadon.

 

I saw groome pitch once last season and he has by far and away the best pure stuff I have seen from a sox pitching prospect since Buchholz. Not sure about his mental makeup or what happens with all his family issues, but the stuff is gold.

 

The potential superstar in the group is schreff, admittedly I have not seen him pitch, but the tape looks good. I am very excited to see how he does next year.

[cp176]

You don't know my position by now?

 

I was firmly against the Kimbrel & Pom trades, but not because I didn't think both would help the team. I thought we gave up too much and should have "saved" our prospects for deals like the Sale trade (and Quintana or possibly Stanton). P & K did a wonderful job for us in 2017.

 

I am not against trading away top prospects. I suggest those type trades all the time. I loved the Sale trade and was okay with the Thorburg trade.

 

We do have Devers and Beni to look forward to long term, but we need a balance of upcoming, cheap, young players to compliment the expensive vets. The balance will tip wildly in 2020 or perhaps with some massive spending, 2021. We are not the "Dodgers East", unless Henry decides to change his spending habits. Until I see it, I'm thinking "cliff". To me, it's close to being a sure bet we become mediocre or the top spender by 2021.

 

Here's soxprospects 2021 "futures roster". Tell me how you fill in the many holes with a limited spending budget?

 

Price

_____

_____

ERod

Groome, Mata, Scherff

 

Closer: _____ (Houck)

_______

_______

Barnes

Workman

Beeks

Johnson, Shawaryn

 

C _______ (Baldwin, Romanski)

1B Travis, Ockimey

2B Pedey

SS ______ (Chatham, Lin, Hernandez)

3B Devers

LF _____ (Lin)

CF Beni

RF _____ (Brannen)

DH Chavis

 

There's no way the prospect list we have now, fill enough holes. We are going to need massive spending and/or incredibly good luck with prospect development and signings between now and then.

 

It blows my mind that some feel like keeping all of those prospects wouldn't have made a significant difference -not just in young talent but in cost control- in 2020 or 2021 and beyond.

 

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

Espinoza

Dubon

Basabe

 

These probably won't amount to much, but one might:

Logan Allen

Asuaje

Guerra

Basabe (the other one)

Diaz

Rijo

 

I like our recent draft and international signings, but I still think the cliff is far from "mythical". It is probable to highly probable.

 

 

I am very well aware of most positions that you seem to take. Let me get this straight though, you aren't opposed to trading prospects as long as they get traded for the guys you think we should get. I choose to let the GM and the owners make these decisions for me. Just a fan here. The players that we received in return for those that we gave up have been tremendous. It is entirely possible and maybe even likely that none of the guys traded would ever have played for us.

[sk7326]

You don't know my position by now?

 

I was firmly against the Kimbrel & Pom trades, but not because I didn't think both would help the team. I thought we gave up too much and should have "saved" our prospects for deals like the Sale trade (and Quintana or possibly Stanton). P & K did a wonderful job for us in 2017.

 

I am not against trading away top prospects. I suggest those type trades all the time. I loved the Sale trade and was okay with the Thorburg trade.

 

We do have Devers and Beni to look forward to long term, but we need a balance of upcoming, cheap, young players to compliment the expensive vets. The balance will tip wildly in 2020 or perhaps with some massive spending, 2021. We are not the "Dodgers East", unless Henry decides to change his spending habits. Until I see it, I'm thinking "cliff". To me, it's close to being a sure bet we become mediocre or the top spender by 2021.

 

Here's soxprospects 2021 "futures roster". Tell me how you fill in the many holes with a limited spending budget?

 

Price

_____

_____

ERod

Groome, Mata, Scherff

 

Closer: _____ (Houck)

_______

_______

Barnes

Workman

Beeks

Johnson, Shawaryn

 

C _______ (Baldwin, Romanski)

1B Travis, Ockimey

2B Pedey

SS ______ (Chatham, Lin, Hernandez)

3B Devers

LF _____ (Lin)

CF Beni

RF _____ (Brannen)

DH Chavis

 

There's no way the prospect list we have now, fill enough holes. We are going to need massive spending and/or incredibly good luck with prospect development and signings between now and then.

 

It blows my mind that some feel like keeping all of those prospects wouldn't have made a significant difference -not just in young talent but in cost control- in 2020 or 2021 and beyond.

 

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

Espinoza

Dubon

Basabe

 

These probably won't amount to much, but one might:

Logan Allen

Asuaje

Guerra

Basabe (the other one)

Diaz

Rijo

 

I like our recent draft and international signings, but I still think the cliff is far from "mythical". It is probable to highly probable.

 

 

We are not Tampa North either. The team has a very large payroll and will maintain one. The team is actually using its farm the way large market teams do use them - keep your stars and use other stuff to supplement. They got pretty good quality in all of their trades so far, and the guys they identified as keepers seem at worst highly defensible.

 

No team has a farm system which produces star prospects forever. Kids graduate, and then there is some gaps in AA/AAA for a bit. Question now is whether Dombrowski can fill those gaps in. Obviously the evidence is inconclusive. Remember, at the time of the cliff, none of the Red Sox most important position players will be 30. The "cliff" as it were is entirely within the Red Sox control.

[mvp 78]

We are not Tampa North either. The team has a very large payroll and will maintain one. The team is actually using its farm the way large market teams do use them - keep your stars and use other stuff to supplement. They got pretty good quality in all of their trades so far, and the guys they identified as keepers seem at worst highly defensible.

 

No team has a farm system which produces star prospects forever. Kids graduate, and then there is some gaps in AA/AAA for a bit. Question now is whether Dombrowski can fill those gaps in. Obviously the evidence is inconclusive. Remember, at the time of the cliff, none of the Red Sox most important position players will be 30. The "cliff" as it were is entirely within the Red Sox control.

 

Which is why there really is no cliff.

[moonslav59]

We are not Tampa North either. The team has a very large payroll and will maintain one.

 

We were one of the top salary teams those 3 years we finished last. Certainly spending big does not guarantee no "cliff."

 

 

The team is actually using its farm the way large market teams do use them - keep your stars and use other stuff to supplement. They got pretty good quality in all of their trades so far, and the guys they identified as keepers seem at worst highly defensible.

 

There's not enough the young, low cost player available for 2020 or 2021. Look how many Dodger and Astros players are homegrown. Look at the list I provided of homegrown players available to the Sox in 2021.

 

Light years apart.

 

No team has a farm system which produces star prospects forever. Kids graduate, and then there is some gaps in AA/AAA for a bit. Question now is whether Dombrowski can fill those gaps in. Obviously the evidence is inconclusive. Remember, at the time of the cliff, none of the Red Sox most important position players will be 30. The "cliff" as it were is entirely within the Red Sox control.

 

Yes, exactly, that's why there are no more dynasties. Teams shoot for windows and rebuilding phases, unless they can spend like the Dodgers, who try to keep the farm intact while spending like maniacs.

 

There may not be a cliff, if Henry spends like a maniac in 2020 (or earlier). If he doesn't, there is only a slim chance we can be highly competitive, and that involves being very productive, or lucky, with almost all of our draft picks and international signings.

 

What's our 2020 budget going to be, if we keep Sale, Betts, Kimbrel, Pom and maybe Bogey and JBJ? What will the arb costs be to the ones not up for free agency?

 

It's not as easy as it looks. Yes, dropping HRam, Pablo and Porcello's contracts will help, but there is no doubt we are going to have to spend like never before to fill all the obvious holes left be depleting much of our farm for this window. Until I actually see Henry do it, I'm seeing a cliff coming.

[moonslav59]

I am very well aware of most positions that you seem to take. Let me get this straight though, you aren't opposed to trading prospects as long as they get traded for the guys you think we should get. I choose to let the GM and the owners make these decisions for me. Just a fan here. The players that we received in return for those that we gave up have been tremendous. It is entirely possible and maybe even likely that none of the guys traded would ever have played for us.

 

Kimbrel and Pom were not "tremendous" in 2016. They have been great for one year out of three years of control with one more to go.

 

I was not for emptying the farm. I would not have chosen this path. I've been clear on that.

 

Trades for guys like Sale and Quintana are much different. Both were under team control for 3-5 years when I was advocating those trades AND (and this is equally important) their salaries were dirt cheap for players of their caliber. That allows us to spend elsewhere. Kimbrel was making top dollar for a closer when we traded 4 prospects for him. The closer cost sky-rocketed afterwards, and I have stated that this has improved the judgement of the trade in a big way. When we traded for Kimbrel, I said I felt he was and would continue to be a top 3 closer for the 3 years of control. I never downplayed his value in that way. I do, however, feel closers are over-valued, but that's a different debate.

 

My views on trading Sox prospects have changed once our GM decided to shoot for a window/cliff philosophy. I am temporarily fine with trading more prospects to insure we do win a ring within the window and accept that a cliff will be a result. I don't see a 5 year cliff with a team like ours. We may be closer to last place than 1st for 1-2 years and then could bounce back.

 

We made the bed. It's time to sleep in it and win a ring or two before the bed rolls off the cliff.

[moonslav59]

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list.

 

Basically, obliterating the cliff depends on these three just about all becoming aces or strong #2 types.

 

Pardon me, if I am not that optimistic.

 

I like all three, but I've seen too many promising Sox pitching prospects fall short of expectations.

[mvp 78]

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list.

 

Basically, obliterating the cliff depends on these three just about all becoming aces or strong #2 types.

 

Pardon me, if I am not that optimistic.

 

I like all three, but I've seen too many promising Sox pitching prospects fall short of expectations.

 

Um, in order for the Sox to not reach a cliff, they'll have to develop 3 aces?

 

Pardon me, if I am going to disagree with that since they've remained competitive without developing an ace in forever.

[a700hitter]

Um, in order for the Sox to not reach a cliff, they'll have to develop 3 aces?

 

Pardon me, if I am going to disagree with that since they've remained competitive without developing an ace in forever.

Develop 3 aces? Over what period of time... 40 years? That's doable.

[mvp 78]

Develop 3 aces? Over what period of time... 40 years? That's doable.

 

Clemens/Hurst/Lester

 

Those are the only decent starters developed in my lifetime.

[a700hitter]

Clemens/Hurst/Lester

 

Those are the only decent starters developed in my lifetime.

That was rapid for the organization -- only 20 years.

[Slasher9]

Clemens/Hurst/Lester

 

Those are the only decent starters developed in my lifetime.

 

Clay

[Larry Cook]

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list.

 

Basically, obliterating the cliff depends on these three just about all becoming aces or strong #2 types.

 

Pardon me, if I am not that optimistic.

 

I like all three, but I've seen too many promising Sox pitching prospects fall short of expectations.

 

I think we need to figure out why promising pitching prospects fail!!

 

I saw Tampa prospect pitcher Honeywell throw this year and all I could think was here comes another future ace!!!!

 

I saw on another site that someone thought the location of our minor league teams played a role in us failing to develop pitchers. (Not sure I can make that leap.)

 

Others have said our minor league pitching coaches fail to correct flaws in youngsters that cause them to fail later on up the food chain. (Not sure I can make that leap, either)

 

So why do our top pitching prospects fail????

[moonslav59]

Um, in order for the Sox to not reach a cliff, they'll have to develop 3 aces?

 

Pardon me, if I am going to disagree with that since they've remained competitive without developing an ace in forever.

 

The statement was made within the context of either this or Henry turning the Sox into the Dodgers East.

 

How much will it cost to sign 3 aces or solid #2's? That's a third of the luxury budget right there- on just 3 guys.

 

It's not just the 3 starting pitchers either. Look at the outlook on our everyday players: Beni, Devers then who? Chavis and Travis? Lin and Chatham? Ockimey?

 

Flores might turn out to be very good, but even he won't be ready by 2020 or 2021.

 

To me, it is so obvious we have very few high quality players and prospects under team control through '20-'21. Are we counting on our drafts in 2018 and 2019 to produce ML ready stars by 2020-2021?

 

Are we counting on 8-10 players on the farm now to rise up quickly into stars or near stars by then?

 

Ever time we traded guys like Espinoza, Margot, (Moncada and Kopech- I wanted to trade for Sale), Basabe, Dubon and others, I kept hearing from the same cliff- deniers that these guys were only speculative value and that maybe one or two might have amounted to anything anyways. Now, some of the same posters are putting all their trust in lesser prospects to somehow miraculously thrive and grow into quality players at a higher rate of success in just 2-3 years time.

 

It's like climate deniers saying, "We'll find a way to fix the problem, when it gets very drastic."

 

The old ways of buying the best international free agents are gone.

 

The old ways of drafting better players late in the first round due to "signing issues" are gone.

 

The only way we win in 2020-2021 is to spend in ways we've never seen and/or develop non top 100 prospects, including a SP'er or two, into stars like we've never seen before in such quantities on this team.

 

I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think I'm being a realist.

 

Players under team control through the 2020 season:

Boston

Price (assuming no opt out)

Pedey

Beni

Devers

Maddox

Hembree

Scott

Hernandez

Johnson

Marrero

Taylor

 

 

Last arb years:

Betts

JBJ

Vazquez

Wright

Smith

Leon

Swihart

 

Astros:

Correa

Bregman

McCullers

Reddick

Gurriel

Musgrove

 

Last arb:

Springer

Giles

Peacock

Marisnick

Devinski

 

LAD

Kershaw

Bellinger

Seager

Turner

Jansen

Maeda

Stripling

A Barnes

Urias

T Thompson

plus others

and a much better farm

 

Last arb

Pederson

C Taylor

Y Garcia

P Baez

 

I don't want to get depressed, but here are the Yanks...

Judge

Severino

Sanchez

Chapman

Bird

Montgomery

Torreyes

Frazier

Green

Ellsbury

Castro (opt)

A Taylor

and many more

plus a much better farm with near ML ready prospects

Last arb

Kahnle

Shreve

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not going to worry about the cliff, there's nothing I can do about it anyway. If it comes it comes, and we might really suck for a few years. C'est la vie.

[a700hitter]

The statement was made within the context of either this or Henry turning the Sox into the Dodgers East.

 

How much will it cost to sign 3 aces or solid #2's? That's a third of the luxury budget right there- on just 3 guys.

 

It's not just the 3 starting pitchers either. Look at the outlook on our everyday players: Beni, Devers then who? Chavis and Travis? Lin and Chatham? Ockimey?

 

Flores might turn out to be very good, but even he won't be ready by 2020 or 2021.

 

To me, it is so obvious we have very few high quality players and prospects under team control through '20-'21. Are we counting on our drafts in 2018 and 2019 to produce ML ready stars by 2020-2021?

 

Are we counting on 8-10 players on the farm now to rise up quickly into stars or near stars by then?

 

Ever time we traded guys like Espinoza, Margot, (Moncada and Kopech- I wanted to trade for Sale), Basabe, Dubon and others, I kept hearing from the same cliff- deniers that these guys were only speculative value and that maybe one or two might have amounted to anything anyways. Now, some of the same posters are putting all their trust in lesser prospects to somehow miraculously thrive and grow into quality players at a higher rate of success in just 2-3 years time.

 

It's like climate deniers saying, "We'll find a way to fix the problem, when it gets very drastic."

 

The old ways of buying the best international free agents are gone.

 

The old ways of drafting better players late in the first round due to "signing issues" are gone.

 

The only way we win in 2020-2021 is to spend in ways we've never seen and/or develop non top 100 prospects, including a SP'er or two, into stars like we've never seen before in such quantities on this team.

 

I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think I'm being a realist.

 

Players under team control through the 2020 season:

Boston

Price (assuming no opt out)

Pedey

Beni

Devers

Maddox

Hembree

Scott

Hernandez

Johnson

Marrero

Taylor

 

 

Last arb years:

Betts

JBJ

Vazquez

Wright

Smith

Leon

Swihart

 

Astros:

Correa

Bregman

McCullers

Reddick

Gurriel

Musgrove

 

Last arb:

Springer

Giles

Peacock

Marisnick

Devinski

 

LAD

Kershaw

Bellinger

Seager

Turner

Jansen

Maeda

Stripling

A Barnes

Urias

T Thompson

plus others

and a much better farm

 

Last arb

Pederson

C Taylor

Y Garcia

P Baez

 

I don't want to get depressed, but here are the Yanks...

Judge

Severino

Sanchez

Chapman

Bird

Montgomery

Torreyes

Frazier

Green

Ellsbury

Castro (opt)

A Taylor

and many more

plus a much better farm with near ML ready prospects

Last arb

Kahnle

Shreve

 

My God, What is this! Oye.

[mvp 78]

Clay

 

!!!

[mvp 78]

That was rapid for the organization -- only 20 years.

 

Hurst drafted in 1976 and Lester in 2002, so about 25. Yuck!

[mvp 78]

I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think I'm being a realist.

 

 

Everyone thinks they are the ones being realistic.

 

Surely everyone is crazy but me! My reality is the right one!

[Spudboy]

Clay

 

lol

[Kimmi]

Which is why there really is no cliff.

 

Oh, there's a cliff. Until it disappears, it's there.

[Spudboy]

I'm not going to worry about the cliff, there's nothing I can do about it anyway. If it comes it comes, and we might really suck for a few years. C'est la vie.

 

Yup.

 

The Sox have sucked several times while I have been a fan. I never lost interest in them.

 

The Celtics sucked hard for a few years but I have watched Danny do some really good things that have born fruit the past two years and now the team is on the verge of being a competitor for the NBA championship. I never lost interest completely.

 

These things are cyclic whether one wants to acknowledge it or not. To me, for this team to fall off a cliff it would have to go into receivership.

 

Money can cure many ills in this game.

[Spudboy]

My God, What is this! Oye.

 

I just do not have the attention span to read and absorb all that.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to worry about the cliff, there's nothing I can do about it anyway. If it comes it comes, and we might really suck for a few years. C'est la vie.

 

I'm not worried either. I've been through decades of ineptitude and heart-breaking close calls.

 

I'm happy we have a contending team for 2-3 more years, and I don't think the cliff will be long lasting. I'll take a ring and a couple non contending years to follow.

[moonslav59]

I just do not have the attention span to read and absorb all that.

 

Like I tell some of my struggling ESL students, "try chunking your reading."

[bosoxmal]

Every time I think of Rich Hill I hink DD should get booted for an error in judgement this bad. 6 Mil!! What are some of these other guys getting? It was the biggest mistake I can think of that a Red Sox GM has made in many years,.

 

On the other hand: How many of the experts on this board agreed with him? Almost all! So, while it was obvious to me (ahen) it wasn't obvious to others. So I guess it was not a fireable offense. Everyone has a right to ake stupid mistakes once in awhile.

[bosoxmal]

Hill may get hammered tonight right off the bat. Or, he may go 6 or 7 strong innings. The point is, he's pitching in the biggest game of his life. But, he was not good enough to be No. 5 in the Red Sox rotation!

[a700hitter]

Every time I think of Rich Hill I hink DD should get booted for an error in judgement this bad. 6 Mil!! What are some of these other guys getting? It was the biggest mistake I can think of that a Red Sox GM has made in many years,.

 

On the other hand: How many of the experts on this board agreed with him? Almost all! So, while it was obvious to me (ahen) it wasn't obvious to others. So I guess it was not a fireable offense. Everyone has a right to ake stupid mistakes once in awhile.

I think they offered him a minor league deal, because they couldn't guarantee that he would make the big team. I don't remember the financial details of the offer.

[moonslav59]

I think they offered him a minor league deal, because they couldn't guarantee that he would make the big team. I don't remember the financial details of the offer.

 

They couldn't guarantee him a slot in the rotation. A minor league offer would have been a slap in Hill's face.

 

I also think they would not come close to the money he ended up getting.

[bosoxmal]

They couldn't guarantee him a slot in the rotation. A minor league offer would have been a slap in Hill's face.

 

I also think they would not come close to the money he ended up getting.

 

The number 6 coms to mind. I thought they should offer him 6 for one year,expecting him to come back with "6/per for 2 years. I tink je might have taken the 5 for one year when he finally signed. I could be wrong on this but I'm not going to waste time researvhing something that's dead and done.