Porcello

[SoxHop]

The first game is October 5th. That's 3 days off after the last game of the season.

 

Had we started Sale the first game in Cincy, we could have given him 1-2 days off before pitching a (short) game vs HOU and then 1-2 days off before game 1 on OCT 5th. Now, he's going to get a super long rest of lopsided rest.

 

Not with you on this Moon. You had to lock down the ALE first.

 

They will get creative with side sessions most likely.

[moonslav59]

Not with you on this Moon. You had to lock down the ALE first.

 

They will get creative with side sessions most likely.

 

Maybe one good long rest with a few side sessions will actually be better for him. Who knows.

 

My guess is they throw him 3-4 innings vs Toronto on an extra day's rest and then rest him until October 5th.

 

(BTW, they haven't clinched yet, so do you throw him on normal day's rest so he's still lined up for the final game of the season, if needed?

 

I don't.)

[SoxHop]

Maybe one good long rest with a few side sessions will actually be better for him. Who knows.

 

My guess is they throw him 3-4 innings vs Toronto on an extra day's rest and then rest him until October 5th.

 

(BTW, they haven't clinched yet, so do you throw him on normal day's rest so he's still lined up for the final game of the season, if needed?

 

I don't.)

 

I think this is a "who knows" scenario.......... but we can light Farrell up if it goes wrong which will be fun.....

 

If the Yankees were in striking distance...... yea, you would have to pitch him.

 

THe very very bright side of this is we have a loaded and extended bullpen where we can kind of do what we want with giving pitchers innings in the next week. We are in a really good place to be actually....

[greenwell]

I think this is a "who knows" scenario.......... but we can light Farrell up if it goes wrong which will be fun.....

 

If the Yankees were in striking distance...... yea, you would have to pitch him.

 

THe very very bright side of this is we have a loaded and extended bullpen where we can kind of do what we want with giving pitchers innings in the next week. We are in a really good place to be actually....

 

I don't see why he isn't pitching tonight on 4 days rest, then he's lined up for a short outing on Saturday and starting game 1 on normal rest.

[cp176]

Speaking of Porcello - it was great what he did for us last year but I think that this might be closer to who he really is. A good solid mid rotation kind of guy. In all honesty, I don't think that there really is much difference between him and Fister.

Sale - not ours

Pomeranz - not ours

E-Rod - not ours

Price - not ours

Porcello - not ours

Fister - not ours

We've done a pretty good job of amassing players that we did not develop I'd say. No impending cliff.

[moonslav59]

I don't see why he isn't pitching tonight on 4 days rest, then he's lined up for a short outing on Saturday and starting game 1 on normal rest.

 

He needs extra rest not short rest.

 

We won't need him the last day of the year, so we should rest him 2-3 extra days, start him the last game vs TOR or the first game vs HOU and then rest him until OCT 5th- game 1.

[illinoisredsox]

Speaking of Porcello - it was great what he did for us last year but I think that this might be closer to who he really is. A good solid mid rotation kind of guy. In all honesty, I don't think that there really is much difference between him and Fister.

Sale - not ours

Pomeranz - not ours

E-Rod - not ours

Price - not ours

Porcello - not ours

Fister - not ours

We've done a pretty good job of amassing players that we did not develop I'd say. No impending cliff.

 

This is the truth. The W-L record notwithstanding, his numbers this year (ERA, WHIP) are not that out of whack with his career norms. A little below, but nothing crazy (within 1 standard deviation). Career ERA going into this season was 4.20, this years is 4.55; career WHIP 1.306 before this season, this season's WHIP is 1.391).

 

He is what he is, a #3/#4 starter. People need to stop holding the contract against him; it's not like he held out for it. He was offered a big deal and took it; same thing any one of use would have done.

[bosoxmal]

IMO, JF has ben 10x the manager since the all star beak than he was before the break.

 

Re/ Sale: ale calls his own game and his own shots.

 

Odds are that he will get one 5-inning game before the season ends, and that will be with his full agreement.

[TylerD]

Speaking of Porcello - it was great what he did for us last year but I think that this might be closer to who he really is. A good solid mid rotation kind of guy. In all honesty, I don't think that there really is much difference between him and Fister.

Sale - not ours

Pomeranz - not ours

E-Rod - not ours

Price - not ours

Porcello - not ours

Fister - not ours

We've done a pretty good job of amassing players that we did not develop I'd say. No impending cliff.

You might be right about this and in which I would be ok with. We might have just expected too much from the year he had last year.

[CTSox1]

I agree with your feelings about Porcello. It's hard to be positive about him and Fister; especially when the dependence on comebacks has reached the WAY unfair stage (to the players that have to make it happen...we all know who they are). The back to back stinkers by Pomeranz and Sale, turning guaranteed clinch into "Oh my God!!!" has, for me, gotten me really pissed because I want desperately to slam the door shut on The Evil Empire. As an aside, as I mentioned in an earlier comment, before spending the vast majority of my life as a Sox fan; I started as a fan of the Brooklyn Dodgers ( about as Sox-like a ballclub as there has ever been in the game); AND my undying hatred of the New York Blowholes began. Added to this late season (big) bump have been the injuries to really key players (Pedroia, Nunez, Betts etc.). I fail to see the depth in the roster that so many pundits speak repeatedly about. This combined with the total lack of production from the bottom of the order is a REAL concern. What is absolutely not a concern is our masterful bullpen.

Now for the But, and it is a REALLY BIG but. I really believe that the Cy Young Porcello is still in there. I also really believe that the better part of Fister is going to re-emerge at just the right time. As far as the injuries are concerned, I really believe that Mookie will be back VERY soon with a bang. I am still quite concerned about Nunez being able to recover enough to make the kind of contribution we love to see from him. Dustin will be back (at the plate and in the field), probably every other game ( or 4-6 innings in every game); and I have no doubt that both he (especially in the Baltimore series) and JBJ will trash those slumps at a time when the team really needs them. So on balance the Sox will deal excellantly with all of the problems, win the Division and kick the New York Bummers to the curb. In fact, the Houston Astros are in for a reality check at the end of the week; and the Sox will jump into the postseason with both feet firmly planted on the ground ready to take on any and all (Are you listening Cleveland AND LA!!!).

[illinoisredsox]

The one good thing about JBJ is we know when he comes out of one of these funks, he is generally white hot for a couple weeks.

 

As for the Evil Empire, I've said it before but it bears repeating; just putting them in the coffin isn't enough, you have to drive a stake through their hearts (preferable 2 stakes).

[mvp 78]

The one good thing about JBJ is we know when he comes out of one of these funks, he is generally white hot for a couple weeks.

 

As for the Evil Empire, I've said it before but it bears repeating; just putting them in the coffin isn't enough, you have to drive a stake through their hearts (preferable 2 stakes).

 

JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays s***** otherwise.

[Emp9]

JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays s***** otherwise.

 

So what you're saying is... he'll be easier and cheaper to extend before he's a free agent? I see You leopard! Lol

[TylerD]

I agree with your feelings about Porcello. It's hard to be positive about him and Fister; especially when the dependence on comebacks has reached the WAY unfair stage (to the players that have to make it happen...we all know who they are). The back to back stinkers by Pomeranz and Sale, turning guaranteed clinch into "Oh my God!!!" has, for me, gotten me really pissed because I want desperately to slam the door shut on The Evil Empire. As an aside, as I mentioned in an earlier comment, before spending the vast majority of my life as a Sox fan; I started as a fan of the Brooklyn Dodgers ( about as Sox-like a ballclub as there has ever been in the game); AND my undying hatred of the New York Blowholes began. Added to this late season (big) bump have been the injuries to really key players (Pedroia, Nunez, Betts etc.). I fail to see the depth in the roster that so many pundits speak repeatedly about. This combined with the total lack of production from the bottom of the order is a REAL concern. What is absolutely not a concern is our masterful bullpen.

Now for the But, and it is a REALLY BIG but. I really believe that the Cy Young Porcello is still in there. I also really believe that the better part of Fister is going to re-emerge at just the right time. As far as the injuries are concerned, I really believe that Mookie will be back VERY soon with a bang. I am still quite concerned about Nunez being able to recover enough to make the kind of contribution we love to see from him. Dustin will be back (at the plate and in the field), probably every other game ( or 4-6 innings in every game); and I have no doubt that both he (especially in the Baltimore series) and JBJ will trash those slumps at a time when the team really needs them. So on balance the Sox will deal excellantly with all of the problems, win the Division and kick the New York Bummers to the curb. In fact, the Houston Astros are in for a reality check at the end of the week; and the Sox will jump into the postseason with both feet firmly planted on the ground ready to take on any and all (Are you listening Cleveland AND LA!!!).

 

Good post!! I like the optimism. I'm a little scared as our supposed three top pitchers were god awful their last three starts. Thank god for the win last night but this offense might have to put up at least 8 plus runs every game for us to have a chance in the playoffs. And I'm just not sure they are capable of doing that. I'm done with thinking maybe Porcello will be better come playoffs. He likely won't.

[mvp 78]

So what you're saying is... he'll be easier and cheaper to extend before he's a free agent? I see You leopard! Lol

 

He should be. It's one of the reasons I think the Sox can re-sign the B's. They aren't all $20M guys.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays s***** otherwise.

 

Not true, in fact, it's a gross distortion of the facts.

 

Here are his OPS by month since he became FT in AUG 2015:

 

.596

.596

 

.651

 

.731

.739

.770

 

.805

.807

.808

.839

 

1.009

1.163

1.175

 

Just because he as no .900 months does mean he has sucked every month, except the 3 over 1.000.

 

He's had 5 between .770 and .840.

 

That's 8 out of his last 13 months over .770.

 

10 out of 13 over .730.

 

(not counting SEPT '17, so one can project 8 out of 14 and 10 out 14.)

 

 

I know the guy is in an awful slump, but let's not re-write history over it.

 

[mvp 78]

Oh, it's damn true...

 

JBJ is good for one great month per season.

 

2015:

5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS

8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS

9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

 

2016:

4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS

5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS

6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

 

2017:

April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669

May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029

July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598

Edited September 28, 2017 by mvp 78

[Bellhorn04]

Oh, it's damn true...

 

JBJ is good for one great month per season.

 

2015:

5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS

8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS

9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

 

2016:

4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS

5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS

6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

 

2017:

April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669

May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029

July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598

 

And the hot streaks are all smack dab in the middle...weird/amazing.

[mvp 78]

That Aug-Sep stretch in 2015 was Bonds-esque.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays s***** otherwise.

 

PLAYS?? Only if you don't count his GG caliber defense.

 

It amazes me how many fans put all their emphasis on offense and totally ignore outstanding defense like it's a given. There are two ways to win a game. A team score runs or it can keep the other team from scoring runs. IMO they're equally important,

[SoxHop]

PLAYS?? Only if you don't count his GG caliber defense.

 

It amazes me how many fans put all their emphasis on offense and totally ignore outstanding defense like it's a given. There are two ways to win a game. A team score runs or it can keep the other team from scoring runs. IMO they're equally important,

 

This is WAR I tell you!!!

[Bellhorn04]

This is WAR I tell you!!!

 

Exactly.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now Betts's WAR is 6.0, 2d best RF in AL, JBJ's 3.0, 7th best CF in AL, and Beni's 2.7, 3d best LF in AL.

 

This year JBJ's OPS's were decent to great in May, June, and August, and awful in April, July, and September. His hitting has been off and on liek that virtually since he came into the Sox system. Sometimes he seems completely incapable of seeing the ball. Sometimes he just can't hit the ball squarely. He leads the team in K's with 122 in 471 at bats, almost exactly 1 in 4.

 

His best OPS's are with runners on and RISP--.838 and .820-- and his worst are with the bases empty or when he leads off an inning--.640 and .697.

[Station 13]

He should be. It's one of the reasons I think the Sox can re-sign the B's. They aren't all $20M guys.

 

Just Betts is worth $20M. Constant base 5WAR player.

[moonslav59]

Oh, it's damn true...

 

JBJ is good for one great month per season.

 

2015:

5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS

8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS

9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

 

2016:

4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS

5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS

6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

 

2017:

April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669

May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029

July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598

 

The great part may be true, but my beef was over the "s*****" comment about the "rest of the season".

 

.792 is actually pretty good, and .765 is decent. .669 and GG defense is good enough.

 

That makes 3 of the remaining 6 time frames you listed as s*****.

 

One could say, "he's great one month a year and then s***** for half of the rest of the year."

[Maxbialystock]

The first game is October 5th. That's 3 days off after the last game of the season.

 

Had we started Sale the first game in Cincy, we could have given him 1-2 days off before pitching a (short) game vs HOU and then 1-2 days off before game 1 on OCT 5th. Now, he's going to get a super long rest of lopsided rest.

 

Sale's three best consecutive starts this season, all shutouts, were the first three games after the ASG and 9 days of rest. October 5 is 9 days after September 26. That too me is the best plan for Sale at this point, but it also means the Sox will have to win the AL East without him unless Farrell uses him in relief.

 

Pitching Sale on 1-2 days rest is just nonsense to support a cockamammie theory. Aren't you one of those who have bought into the theory that Sale should have been pitching a lot less going back to August 1?

 

If winning on October 1 guarantees the AL East which can't be won before that date, then maybe Sale does pitch on that day.

[moonslav59]

Just Betts is worth $20M. Constant base 5WAR player.

 

fangraphs value

 

2015: $39.2M

2016: $63.3M

2017: $40.1M (so far)

 

[moonslav59]

Sale's three best consecutive starts this season, all shutouts, were the first three games after the ASG and 9 days of rest. October 5 is 9 days after September 26. That too me is the best plan for Sale at this point, but it also means the Sox will have to win the AL East without him unless Farrell uses him in relief.

 

Pitching Sale on 1-2 days rest is just nonsense to support a cockamammie theory. Aren't you one of those who have bought into the theory that Sale should have been pitching a lot less going back to August 1?

 

If winning on October 1 guarantees the AL East which can't be won before that date, then maybe Sale does pitch on that day.

 

Good points, but I still wish we'd rested him more in September.

[mvp 78]

The great part may be true, but my beef was over the "s*****" comment about the "rest of the season".

 

.792 is actually pretty good, and .765 is decent. .669 and GG defense is good enough.

 

That makes 3 of the remaining 6 time frames you listed as s*****.

 

One could say, "he's great one month a year and then s***** for half of the rest of the year."

 

JBJ is s***** s***** s*** s***. His glove is good, but his bat is s***.

[Maxbialystock]

Back to Porcello. I hate that he can't seem to keep the ball low and relies too much on his fastball. My solution would be to extend his pregame warm-up for however long it takes for him to demonstrate he has command of all his pitches. If this shortens the number of innings he can pitch, so be it.

 

The Sox only have 5 starters, so I think all 5 are still in the mix for the 4 needed. Sale is in for sure. Pom, Fister, and ERod all have a chance against Houston to prove they should make the cut, with Fister clearly the long shot. If he bombs tomorrow night, I think Porcello is #4. If he has a quality start, Farrell might have a tough decision on #4. Interestingly, I don't think either one would be good as a long reliever. That job belongs to Price anyway.

 

I honestly don't see Pom or ERod dropping out of the rotation at this point. Pom has been decent to good all season. ERod has very good stuff and lately seems to have better command.