Sale

[vjcsmoke]

Sale looked GREAT tonight. 8 inning shutout baseball.

 

He's the type of pitcher who WANTS the ball when the division and the pennant is on the line.

 

I say give him the ball. He's our best hope!

 

Once we clinch, rest him a couple of days. Let him get 1 start before the playoffs so he doesn't get too rusty. But we don't have luxuries right now. The lead is not so great that winning the division and making the playoffs is assured!

[Dojji]

It's 90% that we win the division. Worth the risk to give sale 1 less start between now and playoffs

They tried that in 2011. How well did that work for us?

 

Don't get fancy. Focus on the task at hand until it is completed. We've seen how it works if you don't do it that way.

 

As far as I can tell this idea the starting pitcher always benefits from rest is so much toxic brain fluff. We've all seen the guy who comes back after a rest period and can't find his rhythm. You're rolling the dice either way so I'd rather roll them in a way that secures the playoffs.

[Spudboy]

End of debate.

 

Dojji has spoken.

[Larry Cook]

Is this the first pennant race sale has ever had a legitimate chance to be part of?

 

If so, he must be jacked and having the time of his professional life!

[moonslav59]

They tried that in 2011. How well did that work for us?

 

Don't get fancy. Focus on the task at hand until it is completed. We've seen how it works if you don't do it that way.

 

As far as I can tell this idea the starting pitcher always benefits from rest is so much toxic brain fluff. We've all seen the guy who comes back after a rest period and can't find his rhythm. You're rolling the dice either way so I'd rather roll them in a way that secures the playoffs.

 

It's not getting "fancy". It's been done countless times with success and failure.

 

I'm trying to change this pattern:

 

Career OPS against

 

.587 April

.538 May

.594 June

.628 July

.645 August

.746 September

 

One could ask, how well did pitching the daylights out of Sale work for the White Sox and Sale's end of season success?

 

[Dojji]

End of debate.

 

Dojji has spoken.

 

Fear the might of the Dojjarajah

[Dojji]

It's not getting "fancy". It's been done countless times with success and failure.

 

I'm trying to change this pattern:

 

Career OPS against

 

.587 April

.538 May

.594 June

.628 July

.645 August

.746 September

 

One could ask, how well did pitching the daylights out of Sale work for the White Sox and Sale's end of season success?

 

 

Post hoc, ergo proptor hoc

[moonslav59]

Once we clinch, rest him a couple of days.

 

Have you looked at the schedule?

 

Assuming we need 2 starts by Sale in the next 10 games AND win the division

 

9/21 Off

9/22 @CIN Porcello +1

9/23 @CIN ERod +1

9/24 @CIN Fister +1

9/25 TOR Pom +1

9/26 TOR Sale +1

9/27 TOR Porcello

9/28 HOU ERod

9/29 HOU Fister

9/30 HOU Pom

10/1 HOU Sale

10/2 off

10/3 off

10/4 off

10/5 Game 1 Sale on short rest? WTF!!!!! (Or Pom on normal rest)

10/6 Game 2 Sale with no extra rest?

10/7 off

10/8 Game 3 Porcello?

10/9 Game 4 ERod?

10/10 off

10/11 Game 5 Sale?

 

If we clinch before the last day of the year, we'd end up having Sale go on 9 days rest or going on 4 days of extra rest.

 

If you're worried about how well do after getting extra rest, getting 4 days extra is worse than 1 or 2. so that argument made against resting Sale now actually works against that argument. My contention is that is probably ebtter to give sale 1-2 extra days rest for 3 times in a row rather than give him all the extra days off at once.

 

Here is Sale's record on various days rest:

3 days 5.40/ 1.80

4 days 3.10/ 1.08

5 days 3.25/ 1.03

6 days 1.88/ 0.98

 

I'd have given him 2 days now, so he'd pitch

9/22 @ CIN (+2 days rest)

9/29 v HOU (+2)

10/5 Game 1 (+1)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Fear the might of the Dojjarajah

 

Dojji head in sand.

 

Fear tired Sale in the playoffs.

 

Sale= best playoff hope.

[cp176]

You have to get to the playoffs first if you have any intention of winning when you get there. The right decision was made last night with respect to Sale imo. I'm surprised that the issue was even brought up when looking at the slim lead that we have over the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

You have to get to the playoffs first if you have any intention of winning when you get there. The right decision was made last night with respect to Sale imo. I'm surprised that the issue was even brought up when looking at the slim lead that we have over the Yankees.

 

I was surprised as well.

[Bellhorn04]

It's 90% that we win the division. Worth the risk to give sale 1 less start between now and playoffs

 

90% doesn't get it. If we lost last night it would probably be down to 80% or something. Yanks are hot and have a cupcake schedule for their last 10.

[Bellhorn04]

Dojji head in sand.

 

Fear tired Sale in the playoffs.

 

Sale= best playoff hope.

 

Concerns about Sale being tired in the playoffs pale next to concerns about losing the division to the Yankees or ending up in a tie with them and possibly having to play not one but two playin games.

[moonslav59]

90% doesn't get it. If we lost last night it would probably be down to 80% or something. Yanks are hot and have a cupcake schedule for their last 10.

 

How much does Sale pitching 1 more games instead of two hurt our odds?

 

90% to 88%?

 

He's been inconsistent of late, most likely due to fatigue, so we're not even sure we're going to get what we saw last night in both of his next 2 starts.

 

ER/IP last few starts (in reverse order)

 

0/8

4/5.2

0/6

3/4.1

0/7

6/3

4/7

1/7

0/8

7/5

 

5 of his last 10 starts have been "iffy" or worse. Is that what you guys want for the playoffs?

 

Really?

 

It's not even 'an issue?"

 

 

[illinoisredsox]

Once we clinch, rest him a couple of days.

 

If we clinch before the last day of the year, we'd end up having Sale go on 9 days rest or going on 4 days of extra rest.

 

 

If they clinch the division before the last day, you send Sale out on the 1st for 2-3 innings (or maybe 30-40 pitches). If they skip his start, he's be throwing on the side anyway. Then you can bring him back for Game 1 on "short" rest without it being too big a deal and still give him a chance to keep sharp.

[cp176]

How much does Sale pitching 1 more games instead of two hurt our odds?

 

90% to 88%?

 

He's been inconsistent of late, most likely due to fatigue, so we're not even sure we're going to get what we saw last night in both of his next 2 starts.

 

ER/IP last few starts (in reverse order)

 

0/8

4/5.2

0/6

3/4.1

0/7

6/3

4/7

1/7

0/8

7/5

 

5 of his last 10 starts have been "iffy" or worse. Is that what you guys want for the playoffs?

 

Really?

 

It's not even 'an issue?"

 

 

 

Once again I think that this situation depends on your perspective. it is a non-issue for me because I see the season as a whole a contest to win your division. 162 games and then you take your chances. The playoffs and a potential World Series matchup is always the goal but for me getting there first is the primary objective. if someone helps us get there and then comes up lame, i just don't see it as an issue. I would be sad of course but I tend not to look back and say what if. Naturally that does not mean that you play obviously injured players if playing them is going to make said injury worse.

[Dojji]

Once again I think that this situation depends on your perspective. it is a non-issue for me because I see the season as a whole a contest to win your division. 162 games and then you take your chances. The playoffs and a potential World Series matchup is always the goal but for me getting there first is the primary objective. if someone helps us get there and then comes up lame, i just don't see it as an issue. I would be sad of course but I tend not to look back and say what if. Naturally that does not mean that you play obviously injured players if playing them is going to make said injury worse.

 

Aaaaaactually...

 

 

I do get what you're saying, I'm honestly convinced Mike Lowell torpedoed the team's chances in 2009 by playing through IIRC a hip pointer that he could have gotten operated on, cleaned out and back in the game b y the playoffs, and at the time we had Jed Lowrie available as 3B depth.

 

He had the choice between playing 3 months with an increasingly debilitating injury, or getting the surgery he needed, cleaning out his hip, rehabbing for a month and taking the field in October. He made the wrong choice and was ineffective by September due to the limits imposed by his injury -- specifically the huge deficit in his already marginal range at third base. As a result his season bWAR was exactly zero, he was literally replacement level that year and trending downward by October It would have been better in the end simply to let Lowell go under the knife in July or August and get Jed Lowrie all the experience he needed to take over the position himself.

 

There's always pros and cons to the decision to rest or play a player. Personally though I see no reason right now to shut down Sale other than paranoid timidity, and that's no way to run a baseball team.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Once again I think that this situation depends on your perspective. it is a non-issue for me because I see the season as a whole a contest to win your division. 162 games and then you take your chances. The playoffs and a potential World Series matchup is always the goal but for me getting there first is the primary objective. if someone helps us get there and then comes up lame, i just don't see it as an issue. I would be sad of course but I tend not to look back and say what if. Naturally that does not mean that you play obviously injured players if playing them is going to make said injury worse.

 

What about fatigued players with a long history of tiring as the seasons heads towards the end?

 

I get your point and others', but this is not a slam dunk issue.

[Dojji]

When was the last time Sale had something to play for in September?

 

One can trend downward at garbage time without fatigue being the main reason. Personally I think you're leaping to a conclusion.

 

Anyway, haven't presented any actual argument in favor of the idea that resting him now will improve his numbers when it matters in October. This is because you don't have the data to actually do more than merely suggest such a thing. In a word, you're guessing.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Dojji

[cp176]

What about fatigued players with a long history of tiring as the seasons heads towards the end?

 

I get your point and others', but this is not a slam dunk issue.

 

I think that you have to listen to your players carefully. I'm not sure that if you are specifically referring to Sale that he would look at the accumulated stats and believe that you ought to categorize him as one of those guys that gets fatigued and tires toward the end. If someone was going to suggest that to him, I'm pretty sure that I would decline doing that job. If you or anyone else gives me all of the stats (facts?) that you can dig up to show that this might be the case, I probably still would not buy that it is fatigue that caused him to not win every game that he has pitched in this year. Sometimes you lose - in his case more times you win. Do you really think that he looked pooped out at all last night?

[moonslav59]

I think that you have to listen to your players carefully. I'm not sure that if you are specifically referring to Sale that he would look at the accumulated stats and believe that you ought to categorize him as one of those guys that gets fatigued and tires toward the end. If someone was going to suggest that to him, I'm pretty sure that I would decline doing that job. If you or anyone else gives me all of the stats (facts?) that you can dig up to show that this might be the case, I probably still would not buy that it is fatigue that caused him to not win every game that he has pitched in this year. Sometimes you lose - in his case more times you win. Do you really think that he looked pooped out at all last night?

 

He has a very long history of significantly fading in SEPT/OCT. I get that Sale is a warrior, but sometimes you also have to listen to your own gut.

[mvp 78]

Aaaaaactually...

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]545[/ATTACH]

 

Red magic marker.

[moonslav59]

When was the last time Sale had something to play for in September?

 

One can trend downward at garbage time without fatigue being the main reason. Personally I think you're leaping to a conclusion.

 

Anyway, haven't presented any actual argument in favor of the idea that resting him now will improve his numbers when it matters in October. This is because you don't have the data to actually do more than merely suggest such a thing. In a word, you're guessing.

 

His monthly numbers steadily decline after May, then they dip more sharply in Sept.

 

Explain them away, all you want, but I'd be cautious with him

 

He's certainly looked much different in his last 10 starts than his first- and we're in heavy competition mode here.

 

His numbers this year match up with his career late season decline numbers, so I'm trusting that over Sale's own personal desires to be a "gamer".

 

Remember, Pedro never wanted to be pulled..

[mvp 78]

Sale's innings need to be managed as much as possible right now.

[cp176]

He has a very long history of significantly fading in SEPT/OCT. I get that Sale is a warrior, but sometimes you also have to listen to your own gut.

 

How did he look to you last night?

[mvp 78]

How did he look to you last night?

 

How'd he look last Friday against the Rays? 5 2/3, 4 ER

 

How'd he look against the Yankees on Sept 3? 4 1/3, 3 ER

 

How'd he look against the Guardians on Aug 24? 3, 6 ER

 

Half of his starts since Aug 1 have been mediocre to horrible. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&type=&gds=2017-08-01&gde=2017-09-20&season=

[moonslav59]

How did he look to you last night?

 

Awesome- just like he has in 5 of his last 10 starts.

 

I'm worried about him continuing this 50-50 pattern into the playoffs. I'm trying to be pro-active here.

 

I know it's a risk-reward trade-off, and nothing is for sure, but my opinion is and was to rest him more than we have.

 

Why 8 IP and 111 pitches in a 9-0 win?

[moonslav59]

How'd he look last Friday against the Rays? 5 2/3, 4 ER

 

How'd he look against the Yankees on Sept 3? 4 1/3, 3 ER

 

How'd he look against the Guardians on Aug 24? 3, 6 ER

 

Half of his starts since Aug 1 have been mediocre to horrible. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&type=&gds=2017-08-01&gde=2017-09-20&season=

 

Yes...

ER/IP last few starts (in reverse order)

 

0/8

4/5.2

0/6

3/4.1

0/7

6/3

4/7

1/7

0/8

7/5

 

5 of his last 10 starts have been "iffy" or worse. Is that what some want for the playoffs?

 

If yes, then keep pitching him like this.

 

5 great: 1 ER in 36 IP

 

5 bad: 24 ER in 25 IP

 

 

[cp176]

How'd he look last Friday against the Rays? 5 2/3, 4 ER

 

How'd he look against the Yankees on Sept 3? 4 1/3, 3 ER

 

How'd he look against the Guardians on Aug 24? 3, 6 ER

 

Half of his starts since Aug 1 have been mediocre to horrible. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&type=&gds=2017-08-01&gde=2017-09-20&season=

 

Sure can't disagree with them old stats. Wait a minute - of course I can. I thought he looked pretty good last night. As a matter of fact I thought he looked dominant. I'm not saying that you run him into the ground but guess I am just not that concerned about Chris Sale. You just wanted to see Price get two or three innings didn't you? lol

[cp176]

Yes...

ER/IP last few starts (in reverse order)

 

0/8

4/5.2

0/6

3/4.1

0/7

6/3

4/7

1/7

0/8

7/5

 

5 of his last 10 starts have been "iffy" or worse. Is that what some want for the playoffs?

 

If yes, then keep pitching him like this.

 

5 great: 1 ER in 36 IP

 

5 bad: 24 ER in 25 IP

 

 

 

 

I want to get to the playoffs. Things are looking better everyday.