2018 Rotation discussion

[Northern Star]

Thank God we grenaded all that money on Price, who will most likely be out for the season, so we can't make a run at Jake The Beard.

[Bellhorn04]

All excited about Arrieta now, are we? If he gets a big contract he probably won't live up to it either. They usually don't. Price at least seemed like a decent bet durability-wise.

[Slasher9]

projected 2018 rotation:

1. Sale

2. Pom

3. Porc

4. Erod

(RAIN)

5. Sale

[mvp 78]

All excited about Arrieta now, are we? If he gets a big contract he probably won't live up to it either. They usually don't. Price at least seemed like a decent bet durability-wise.

 

But he has A BEARD!

[mvp 78]

projected 2018 rotation:

1. Sale

2. Pom

3. Porc

4. Erod

(RAIN)

5. Sale

 

Beeks at 5?

[Nick]

Steven Wright returns

[moonslav59]

Steven Wright returns

 

...hopefully not as a PR'er.

[a700hitter]

Steven Wright returns

Where did you see this news?

[BstHcpr]

I think he's talking about 2018.

[a700hitter]

I think he's talking about 2018.

Oh, we are talking about 2018 when we are fighting for post season in 2017. I'll catchup with that in November.

[mvp 78]

Oh, we are talking about 2018 when we are fighting for post season in 2017. I'll catchup with that in November.

 

It's never a bad time to complain about a theoretical lineup. That's far more worrisome than the last five weeks of a season.

[notin]

Thank God we grenaded all that money on Price, who will most likely be out for the season, so we can't make a run at Jake The Beard.

 

People are sick of complaining about Price and ready to embrace the idea of complaining about Arrieta...

[Larry Cook]

With a proper off season, I am thinking Velasquez might have an outside shot of winning the fifth spot in the rotation.

 

A competition between Wright and Johnson for the fifth spot would probably result in both being injured.

[BstHcpr]

People are sick of complaining about Price and ready to embrace the idea of complaining about Arrieta...

 

Yep

[moonslav59]

With a proper off season, I am thinking Velasquez might have an outside shot of winning the fifth spot in the rotation.

 

A competition between Wright and Johnson for the fifth spot would probably result in both being injured.

 

Even if Price has Tommy John, we might not try to acquire another starter.

 

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Beeks

Elias

Haley

Owens (if he's not DFA'd to make room for a rule 5 player)

 

[Jasonbay44]

Even if Price has Tommy John, we might not try to acquire another starter.

 

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Beeks

Elias

Haley

Owens (if he's not DFA'd to make room for a rule 5 player)

 

 

I don't think Henry Owens and Roenis Elias should ever be used as reasons to "not acquire another starter".

[a700hitter]

I don't think Henry Owens and Roenis Elias should ever be used as reasons to "not acquire another starter".

or Velazquez

[moonslav59]

I don't think Henry Owens and Roenis Elias should ever be used as reasons to "not acquire another starter".

 

They are not.

 

I mentioned Owens might be DFA'd.

 

Elias wasn't bad in Seattle. He may bounce back from injuries, but I agree, I'm not counting on him for anything.

 

I could see us signing another Fister type, but I doubt we sign a significant SP'er.

[Nick]

Oh, we are talking about 2018 when we are fighting for post season in 2017. I'll catchup with that in November.

 

I don't mean to be a smart ass but the title of this thread 2018 ROTATION DISCUSSION.

[a700hitter]

I don't mean to be a smart ass but the title of this thread 2018 ROTATION DISCUSSION.

LOL!! I wasn't criticizing anyone. I will just have to make a note to visit this thread around November, because I am behind the curve on the 2018 Rotation.

[Kimmi]

I don't think Henry Owens and Roenis Elias should ever be used as reasons to "not acquire another starter".

 

These are all good depth guys, and should remain as such. Wright could be very good for us again, but after such a long time off, we really can't know what to expect.

 

My guess is that if Price is out for 2018, we will acquire another starter, but it won't be a #1 guy. IMO, it will be a mid rotation type.

[Larry Cook]

One other thing to consider. Would Rodriguez need surgery in the offseason for his often injured knee?

 

If he does, how would that impact our 2018, especially if he can not return until June, assuming nine months rehab,

[harmony]

The trend may be to assemble eight to 10 pitchers formerly labeled as starters (plus depth behind them) to pitch stints or three or four innings before turning to ball over to the bullpen. The goal would be that no pitcher would go through the opponent's lineup more than twice. The model may be 4-3-1-1 innings.

 

When he's on, a team would want an ace such as Chris Sale to go deep into a game. But statistics suggest that a mediocre pitcher going through a lineup for the first time is often more effective than a better pitcher going through the same lineup a third time.

 

With shorter stints, a former "starting" pitcher and his partner could pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day.

[moonslav59]

The trend may be to assemble eight to 10 pitchers formerly labeled as starters (plus depth behind them) to pitch stints or three or four innings before turning to ball over to the bullpen. The goal would be that no pitcher would go through the opponent's lineup more than twice. The model may be 4-3-1-1 innings.

 

When he's on, a team would want an ace such as Chris Sale to go deep into a game. But statistics suggest that a mediocre pitcher going through a lineup for the first time is often more effective than a better pitcher going through the same lineup a third time.

 

With shorter stints, a former "starting" pitcher and his partner could pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day.

 

Interesting concept. Finding 8 decent SP'ers might be tough, and having just 4 short guys could be highly problematic.

[harmony]

Interesting concept. Finding 8 decent SP'ers might be tough, and having just 4 short guys could be highly problematic.

The need for multiple "short guys" would be reduced if the paired former starters could combine for seven or eight innings each game.

 

A team with eight to 10 pitchers who expect to pitch three or four innings at a stint should reduce the number of pitchers needed to cover the fixed number of overall innings.

 

The six most frequently used Red Sox relievers this year are essentially one-inning pitchers (except LOOGY Robby Scott):

 

Kimbrel 52 G, 54 IP

Barnes 59 G, 60 IP

Hembree 54 G, 54 IP

Kelly 41 G, 42.1 IP

Scott 47 G, 30 IP

Abad 36 G, 36 IP

 

I question whether that's efficient use of roster space.

Edited August 26, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The need for multiple "short guys" would be reduced if the paired former starters could combine for seven or eight innings each game.

 

A team with eight to 10 pitchers who expect to pitch three or four innings at a stint should reduce the number of pitchers needed to cover the fixed number of overall innings.

 

The six most frequently used Red Sox relievers this year are essentially one-inning pitchers (except LOOGY Robby Scott):

 

Kimbrel 52 G, 54 IP

Barnes 59 G, 60 IP

Hembree 54 G, 54 IP

Kelly 41 G, 42.1 IP

Scott 47 G, 30 IP

Abad 36 G, 36 IP

 

I question whether that's efficient use of roster space.

 

In theory, yes, but pulling a pitcher who is doing well after 4 IP might be hard, especially after you might not have much confidence in the next guy.

 

Also, one has to expect the second guy might do poorly and need to be yanked after .1 to 2 IP putting a big strain on the 4 short guys.

[Kimmi]

In theory, yes, but pulling a pitcher who is doing well after 4 IP might be hard, especially after you might not have much confidence in the next guy.

 

Also, one has to expect the second guy might do poorly and need to be yanked after .1 to 2 IP putting a big strain on the 4 short guys.

 

Harmony is correct about a pitcher going through a line up for the 3rd time, but I think it's probably a bit unrealistic (due to roster constraints) to plan on regularly pulling a starter after 4 innings. Much would depend on the game situation.

[harmony]

Harmony is correct about a pitcher going through a line up for the 3rd time, but I think it's probably a bit unrealistic (due to roster constraints) to plan on regularly pulling a starter after 4 innings. Much would depend on the game situation.

I would not assume that a lesser pitcher would follow a better pitcher who starts the game. Two former "starters" may be paired together but the pitcher who opens a particular game may be determined by the match-ups.

 

Of course, ideally the paired pitchers would have stark contrasts. An Eduardo Rodriguez could be paired with a Doug Fister, or a Steven Wright could be paired with just about anyone. The plan may pressure an opponent to adjust its lineup mid-game ... or not.

 

A roster can be constrained by six to eight pitchers who typically pitch no more than one inning a game.

 

I had written about the strategy before reading this related column:

 

https://rainierscurto.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/everyone-is-a-long-reliever/

Edited August 26, 2017 by harmony

[Kimmi]

I would not assume that a lesser pitcher would follow a better pitcher who starts the game. Two former "starters" may be paired together but the pitcher who opens a particular game may be determined by the match-ups.

 

Of course, ideally the paired pitchers would have stark contrasts. An Eduardo Rodriguez could be paired with a Doug Fister, or a Steven Wright could be paired with just about anyone. The plan may pressure an opponent to adjust its lineup mid-game ... or not.

 

A roster can be constrained by six to eight pitchers who typically pitch no more than one inning a game.

 

I had written about the strategy before reading this related column:

 

https://rainierscurto.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/everyone-is-a-long-reliever/

 

It's an interesting idea for sure. I'm just not sure how well it would work out logistically. I also think it somewhat limits the bullpen flexibility. I will have to think about this some more.

[moonslav59]

I suggested, what I called, "tandem starters" a few years back, but mostly as an idea for maybe the 4 and 5 slot only.

 

The idea of having 8 tandem starters on a roster seems too problematic, unless one or two of them could be used more than once every 4 days.

 

The plan would only work, if you were pretty much sure the tandem would get you to the 8th or 9th inning very often. I'm not sure how realistic that is. Having only 4 short relievers could be big trouble, if they don't get you at least into the 7th inning just about every game.

Edited August 26, 2017 by moonslav59