Stanton - U- B-Sox-GM

[Nick]

Interesting thing to note about Stanton's current contract.

 

Sox fans are all about the 'tax tracker' when it comes to player payroll. That is we are concerned more about the average value of the contract for the luxury tax implications. We are less concerned about the actual cash flow of one's contract. Why? Henry has money. (actually, sox revenue stream is large)

 

Stanton's contract is back loaded. He was paid $6.5M. $9M and $14.5M the last three years. His pay jumps to $25M in 2018. It will jump to $29M by 2021 and $32M by 2023. Not a big deal for Sox but it is a big deal for cash strapped Marlins. This is why there's talk of making Stanton available in a trade.

 

From Sox perspective, big hurdle is how much concession (players, not money) we'll get from Marlins for the opt out clause in Stanton's contract. Although it may seem unlikely, he can opt out after the 2020 season. Thus only 3 seasons are guaranteed for potential suitors. Realistically it's hard for me to believe Stanton would walk away just as pay is going up but you never know.

 

Maybe the Marlins are committing suicide by trading him but ultimately they know better than anyone else the financial viability of having a player such as Stanton. Simply put. You can't live above your means forever without raising the top line. Marlins made a big deal about the signing three years ago but the new contract was very affordable for first three years. For Marlins, average value had absolutely no impact (Cot's won't even produce that number for majority of franchises distant from having to compute the luxury tax number). Now the rubber meets the road.

 

I would give up any number of minor leaguers for this guy. I like it when DD is focused and zeroing on one target. Close your eyes Kimmi.

 

His contract's average value is little over $25M, only $5M more than Porcello's contract.

Edited September 24, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting thing to note about Stanton's current contract.

 

Sox fans are all about the 'tax tracker' when it comes to player payroll. That is we are concerned more about the average value of the contract for the luxury tax implications. We are less concerned about the actual cash flow of one's contract. Why? Henry has money. (actually, sox revenue stream is large)

 

Stanton's contract is back loaded. He was paid $6.5M. $9M and $14.5M the last three years. His pay jumps to $25M in 2018. It will jump to $29M by 2021 and $32M by 2023. Not a big deal for Sox but it is a big deal for cash strapped Marlins. This is why there's talk of making Stanton available in a trade.

 

From Sox perspective, big hurdle is how much concession (players, not money) we'll get from Marlins for the opt out clause in Stanton's contract. Although it may seem unlikely, he can opt out after the 2020 season. Thus only 3 seasons are guaranteed for potential suitors. Realistically it's hard for me to believe Stanton would walk away just as pay is going up but you never know.

 

Maybe the Marlins are committing suicide by trading him but ultimately they know better than anyone else the financial viability of having a player such as Stanton. Simply put. You can't live above your means forever without raising the top line. Marlins made a big deal about the signing three years ago but the new contract was very affordable for first three years. For Marlins, average value had absolutely no impact (Cot's won't even produce that number for majority of franchises distant from having to compute the luxury tax number). Now the rubber meets the road.

 

I would give up any number of minor leaguers for this guy. I like it when DD is focused and zeroing on one target. Close your eyes Kimmi.

 

His contract's average value is little over $25M, only $5M more than Porcello's contract.

 

Good solid points there Nick.

[moonslav59]

You guys do know that Marlins would have two days to simply rescind the waiver right? This is done usually to gauge interest in the player being placed on waivers.

 

Red Sox can place Hanley on a waiver. I doubt anyone would claim him and his contract.

 

I was being facetious. I am certain several teams would have taken GS for nothing but his contract, but they didn't make a claim because they knew the marlins will and should want something in return.

[moonslav59]

Good solid points there Nick.

 

Yes, the luxury tax implications are much lower than the actual yearly cost going forward.

 

That does make a big difference to any team straddling the luxury tax limit from year to year.

 

It's not known if the Marlins will offer to pay a portion of his deal, and by doing so, they could get better returns. I've suggested trying to get the Marlins to take HRam or Castillo to offset part of his massive remaining money owed, but it's doubtful they'd go for it. Of course, other young players or prospects would also be included.

 

Here's a couple ideas:

 

Trade HRam, Bogey, Shawaryn and Beeks (then sign Cozart to play SS). The Marlins could trade Bogey later, if his arbs get too high.

 

Trade Castillo, Groome, Chavis, Beeks and Shawaryn (then maybe sign Morrison, Duda or Alonso to play 1B)

[Northern Star]

Interesting thing to note about Stanton's current contract.

 

Sox fans are all about the 'tax tracker' when it comes to player payroll. That is we are concerned more about the average value of the contract for the luxury tax implications. We are less concerned about the actual cash flow of one's contract. Why? Henry has money. (actually, sox revenue stream is large)

 

Stanton's contract is back loaded. He was paid $6.5M. $9M and $14.5M the last three years. His pay jumps to $25M in 2018. It will jump to $29M by 2021 and $32M by 2023. Not a big deal for Sox but it is a big deal for cash strapped Marlins. This is why there's talk of making Stanton available in a trade.

 

From Sox perspective, big hurdle is how much concession (players, not money) we'll get from Marlins for the opt out clause in Stanton's contract. Although it may seem unlikely, he can opt out after the 2020 season. Thus only 3 seasons are guaranteed for potential suitors. Realistically it's hard for me to believe Stanton would walk away just as pay is going up but you never know.

 

Maybe the Marlins are committing suicide by trading him but ultimately they know better than anyone else the financial viability of having a player such as Stanton. Simply put. You can't live above your means forever without raising the top line. Marlins made a big deal about the signing three years ago but the new contract was very affordable for first three years. For Marlins, average value had absolutely no impact (Cot's won't even produce that number for majority of franchises distant from having to compute the luxury tax number). Now the rubber meets the road.

 

I would give up any number of minor leaguers for this guy. I like it when DD is focused and zeroing on one target. Close your eyes Kimmi.

 

His contract's average value is little over $25M, only $5M more than Porcello's contract.

 

I will never understand why they gave him that contract, other than banking on him opting out as a certainty, which is a very dumb risk.

[moonslav59]

I will never understand why they gave him that contract, other than banking on him opting out as a certainty, which is a very dumb risk.

 

They planned on trading him when the contract got too high, and they will.

 

What's to "understand?"

[Kimmi]

No, I realize how good a hitter Stanton is. I know that carries a higher OPS than any of our starters. I still think that some people have fallen overly in love with his home runs. And he's having what may be a career year. Or, he could be hitting his prime. We really don't know.

 

This is not an outlier season.

 

This will be the thrid year he's led the league in slugging.

 

His career SLG is .553.

His career OBP is .360

His .913 career OPS is about 120 points better than any current Sox player's 2017 OPS.

 

As for his HR power. HRs per 162 Games:

2017: 60

2016: 37

2015: 59

2014: 41

2013: 33

2012: 48

 

His power is real.

His power is proven,

 

Only his health and contract cost are serious issues.

 

 

My point is that I don't think Stanton worth the contract PLUS the players that we will have to give up. I'll stick with Beni, who is a darn good player in his own right.

 

I thought we could get him for nothing- just pay all his contract.

 

(BTW, we can afford him next year and still stay below the second luxury tax penalty line.)

 

I'm not denying that Stanton is very good. I have not said otherwise. I said that he may be having a career year (his offensive numbers are better than any other year), or he could be hitting his prime. Either way, I really think some posters are star struck by the 57 home runs, which was my point.

 

His health and contract cost are serious issues, and a big part of why trading for him is not worth it.

 

As far as getting Beni for just his contract, there are two points that I stated that you are overlooking or ignoring:

 

1. I said that IF the Marlins were looking for a pure salary dump, that would be the case.

 

2. I said that the Sox would not be willing to take on the contract this year because of the luxury tax.

[Kimmi]

Chicks dig the walk.

 

Again, well played.

 

This chick digs pitching and defense. Give me a pitcher's duel with great defense over a home run fest any day of the week.

[Northern Star]

Again, well played.

 

This chick digs pitching and defense. Give me a pitcher's duel with great defense over a home run fest any day of the week.

 

Minority opinion, but one I agree with.

[Kimmi]

You guys do know that Marlins would have two days to simply rescind the waiver right? This is done usually to gauge interest in the player being placed on waivers.

 

Red Sox can place Hanley on a waiver. I doubt anyone would claim him and his contract.

 

Yes, we know that. My point is that if the Marlins wanted to dump his salary, the claiming team would not be able to rescind their claim.

[moonslav59]

Yes, we know that. My point is that if the Marlins wanted to dump his salary, the claiming team would not be able to rescind their claim.

 

We know that, but that doesn't mean that's the reason nobody claimed him.

[Slasher9]

Interesting thing to note about Stanton's current contract.

 

Sox fans are all about the 'tax tracker' when it comes to player payroll. That is we are concerned more about the average value of the contract for the luxury tax implications. We are less concerned about the actual cash flow of one's contract. Why? Henry has money. (actually, sox revenue stream is large)

 

Stanton's contract is back loaded. He was paid $6.5M. $9M and $14.5M the last three years. His pay jumps to $25M in 2018. It will jump to $29M by 2021 and $32M by 2023. Not a big deal for Sox but it is a big deal for cash strapped Marlins. This is why there's talk of making Stanton available in a trade.

 

From Sox perspective, big hurdle is how much concession (players, not money) we'll get from Marlins for the opt out clause in Stanton's contract. Although it may seem unlikely, he can opt out after the 2020 season. Thus only 3 seasons are guaranteed for potential suitors. Realistically it's hard for me to believe Stanton would walk away just as pay is going up but you never know.

 

Maybe the Marlins are committing suicide by trading him but ultimately they know better than anyone else the financial viability of having a player such as Stanton. Simply put. You can't live above your means forever without raising the top line. Marlins made a big deal about the signing three years ago but the new contract was very affordable for first three years. For Marlins, average value had absolutely no impact (Cot's won't even produce that number for majority of franchises distant from having to compute the luxury tax number). Now the rubber meets the road.

 

I would give up any number of minor leaguers for this guy. I like it when DD is focused and zeroing on one target. Close your eyes Kimmi.

 

His contract's average value is little over $25M, only $5M more than Porcello's contract.

 

Awesome post.

[moonslav59]

Making Stanton our FT DH would probably lessen the injury risk issues.

[Nick]

Making Stanton our FT DH would probably lessen the injury risk issues.

 

Stanton will turn 28 when season is over. He's 6'6" and 245 lbs. Looks pretty healthy to me. How does he look to you, Kimmi?

Edited September 25, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Stanton might look healthy, but there's no doubt he's had injury issues.

 

Games player since 2012:

 

2012: 123

2013: 116

2014: 145

2015: 74

2016: 119

577 in 5 years = 115 per season

 

Certainly health is a big concern on a contract of his length.

[OH FOY]

This is need to be continued thread. At this point I'm really liking this team. These come from behind wins show me something. I don't care teams you play against. It's the mentality, that I like. You can have we'll get them tomorrow, or you can keep trying. This isn't Football, it's really hard to come back in the Majors on the Road.

Not nervous anymore facing either the Guardians, or Astros.

Lets finish the job this year.

[notin]

Stanton might look healthy, but there's no doubt he's had injury issues.

 

Games player since 2012:

 

2012: 123

2013: 116

2014: 145

2015: 74

2016: 119

577 in 5 years = 115 per season

 

Certainly health is a big concern on a contract of his length.

 

 

Exactly.

 

And he isn't likely to get healthier as he gets older.

 

Not to mention, in order to acquire Stanton, The Sox will very likely have to give up player(s) you would probably prefer to keep. Some sort of Travis, Cjavis, Lin package won't get it done. Think more like Benintendi and / or Devers. The Marlins do need someone back they can count on to sell tickets and be worth watching. ...

[Bellhorn04]

If you were going to be thorough about this you would have to analyze Stanton's injury history a bit. I know some of the missed games came from getting hit in the head with a pitch.

[oldtimer]

Stanton might look healthy, but there's no doubt he's had injury issues.

 

Games player since 2012:

 

2012: 123

2013: 116

2014: 145

2015: 74

2016: 119

577 in 5 years = 115 per season

 

Certainly health is a big concern on a contract of his length.

 

Would the Yankees take the contract? Can you imagine Judge and Stanton in the lineup together, not to mention their other power hitters.

[moonslav59]

Would the Yankees take the contract? Can you imagine Judge and Stanton in the lineup together, not to mention their other power hitters.

 

The Yanks are getting rid of a lot of salary this winter.

 

The tax number is just $25M, so that may tip the balance to "yes".

[a700hitter]

Stanton might look healthy, but there's no doubt he's had injury issues.

 

Games player since 2012:

 

2012: 123

2013: 116

2014: 145

2015: 74

2016: 119

577 in 5 years = 115 per season

 

Certainly health is a big concern on a contract of his length.

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness" to be non-existent along with other non existent myths such as clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

Edited September 25, 2017 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness to be non-existent along with other non existent things suchas clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

 

LOL I don't remember anything about statheads and injury prone. I remember all the others though.

[S5Dewey]

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness to be non-existent along with other non existent things suchas clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

 

My man!!

[oldtimer]

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness" to be non-existent along with other non existent myths such as clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

 

Very amusing post

[cp176]

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness" to be non-existent along with other non existent myths such as clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

 

left a few things out but still pretty good - unimportance(as in never to be used) of the bunt, hit and run, insignificance of a pitcher's won lost record... lol

[moonslav59]

I don't think that he has any chronic health conditions. I wouldn't be concerned unless you believe in the notion of "injury prone."

 

I thought that statheads had proved "injury proneness" to be non-existent along with other non existent myths such as clutch, hot streaks, impact of managerial game moves, importance of line order, lineup protection, the disruptive quality of offensive speed and the importance of any single play within the context of a game.

 

I just said and think it is a concern.

 

I would love to have him on the Sox, as long as we don't trade away a key piece like Beni, JBJ or Betts.

 

I might give Bogey, but I think we might be able to get him for something less.

 

I don't want to trade the world and pay a hefty contract.

 

But, I view Stanton is something like the same light as Sale. These guys don't come along often. We're talking about...

 

Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

[Kimmi]

Stanton will turn 28 when season is over. He's 6'6" and 245 lbs. Looks pretty healthy to me. How does he look to you, Kimmi?

 

I thought you were against long term contracts? Stanton looks great right now. My concern is what he's going to look like in the latter half of that contract, not to mention the players we would have to give up in order to get him.

 

Nope, you're not going to convince me that acquiring him would be a good move.

[Kimmi]

This is need to be continued thread. At this point I'm really liking this team. These come from behind wins show me something. I don't care teams you play against. It's the mentality, that I like. You can have we'll get them tomorrow, or you can keep trying. This isn't Football, it's really hard to come back in the Majors on the Road.

Not nervous anymore facing either the Guardians, or Astros.

Lets finish the job this year.

 

I was just reading that we recently won 3 games when our win probability was down to like 3 or 4%. That is very hard to do.

[moonslav59]

I was just reading that we recently won 3 games when our win probability was down to like 3 or 4%. That is very hard to do.

 

Showing some "fire and desire"!

[Larry Cook]

I just said and think it is a concern.

 

I would love to have him on the Sox, as long as we don't trade away a key piece like Beni, JBJ or Betts.

 

I might give Bogey, but I think we might be able to get him for something less.

 

I don't want to trade the world and pay a hefty contract.

 

But, I view Stanton is something like the same light as Sale. These guys don't come along often. We're talking about...

 

Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

 

If you want staton then young pitching will have to be in the equation.

 

That means Rodriguez, groome, matta to start with.

 

I am not prepared to go there for staton.