A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Nick]

The Sox are now tied with the Dodgers in Pitching WAR at 21.6. (The Guardians are 1st at an amazing 26.1.)

 

Here are some other numbers:

 

ERA-

77 CLE

78 AZ

80 LAD

83 BOS

86 NYY

87 WSH

 

SIERA

3.52 CLE

3.65 LAD

3.75 HOU

3.79 BOS

3.81 NYY

3.90 AZ

 

K/BB

3.74 CLE

3.51 LAD

3.43 BOS

3.05 NYY

3.02 HOU

 

How about individual SPERs'?

 

170 pitchers have 60+ SP'er IP. Here's how some teams look:

ERA- Rank

 

BOS

6. Sale 63

22. Pom 74

30. Fister 79

34. Price 81

70. ERod 96

LAD

1. Kershaw 47

8. Wood 65

50. Hill 89

52. Ryu 90

55. Darvish 91

60. McCarthy 93

80. Maeda 99

 

CLE

3. Kluber 57

15. Clevinger 70

27. Carrasco 78

73 Bauer 98

 

 

And if you recall, this was DD's plan all along to compensate for loss of David Ortiz. Strengthen the pitching staff even more by acquiring Sale and Thornburg. And this was due in part to self imposed financial constraint resetting the penalty rate to zero.

 

Scary thing is it could have been even better had Porcello come closer to 2016 level and had Price remained healthy (but Fister/Price duo has produced adequate numbers). No one expected Betts to replicate his 2016 season but the fall has been much steeper.

[Nick]

Cot's Baseball has Sox having $51M to spend for 2018 BEFORE accounting for arbitration eligible players. Total 2017 arbitration payroll was $30M, thus leaving Sox with $21M under the cap before the raises. My guess is $21M will not cover the increases, especially in view of someone like Betts getting into his first arbitration year.

 

Moon has often spoken about blowing past the first tier of 'penalty' phase of $20M as a given. Despite going past $217M, I only see us having enough money to sign one quality FA. (Oh what we can do with $40M that we are paying Hanley and Pablo for next two years, thanks again, Ben)

 

We may again have to mortgage our young players (ie Top 5 prospects) to acquire a top talent.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Nick

[Slasher9]

I would take Trout over Stanton...

 

is there anyone that wouldnt?

[Slasher9]

Nunez is an everyday player -- not a supersub. He's versatile, but he should play everyday.

 

what position are you giving to him? unless he has a position with his name on it by definition he is a sub.

[Slasher9]

I am actually starting to believe that Price will make it back this season. If he can't get stretched out enough to start, he could at least help us out the pen. He could be one our new found piggy back pitchers.

 

if its the postseason i sure hope not.

[Slasher9]

I still disagree because they have nothing to lose by putting in a claim, unless they don't want to take the contract to begin with. Is there a limit to the number of players a team can claim?

 

unless he work out a deal before announcing the claim GM's will be hesitant because it sends a clear signal to your current players that you want to replace them.

[mvp 78]

Price has a damaged arm. Don't expect anything out of him. He needs surgery.

[moonslav59]

And if you recall, this was DD's plan all along to compensate for loss of David Ortiz. Strengthen the pitching staff even more by acquiring Sale and Thornburg. And this was due in part to self imposed financial constraint resetting the penalty rate to zero.

 

Scary thing is it could have been even better had Porcello come closer to 2016 level and had Price remained healthy (but Fister/Price duo has produced adequate numbers). No one expected Betts to replicate his 2016 season but the fall has been much steeper.

 

Well said.

 

Yes, some declines are expected from one year to the next, but not like this. A little more luck with injuries and just half our hitters declining would have put near the best record in the AL.

[moonslav59]

Cot's Baseball has Sox having $51M to spend for 2018 BEFORE accounting for arbitration eligible players. Total 2017 arbitration payroll was $30M, thus leaving Sox with $21M under the cap before the raises. My guess is $21M will not cover the increases, especially in view of someone like Betts getting into his first arbitration year.

 

Moon has often spoken about blowing past the first tier of 'penalty' phase of $20M as a given. Despite going past $217M, I only see us having enough money to sign one quality FA. (Oh what we can do with $40M that we are paying Hanley and Pablo for next two years, thanks again, Ben)

 

We may again have to mortgage our young players (ie Top 5 prospects) to acquire a top talent.

 

I think we may be able to afford one mega FA signing like Mostakas and then maybe a mid tier one like Nunez.

 

The arb raises and raises to Sale and others all add up. I guess we could trade some of our higher priced players, but then we'd have another hole to fill.

[moonslav59]

what position are you giving to him? unless he has a position with his name on it by definition he is a sub.

 

True, but if you get 550+ PAs, it's hard to think ot you as a sub, especially if you get more PAs than someone considered FT.

 

If we sign Nunez and a 1Bman, I coudl see him getting more PAs at DH than anyone else, so i suppose one could call him our DH. (HRam might have something to say about that.)

[moonslav59]

Price has a damaged arm. Don't expect anything out of him. He needs surgery.

 

I think he likely needs surgery too, but I'm no doctor. (Even doctors may disagree on what treatment is needed.)

[Spudboy]

what position are you giving to him? unless he has a position with his name on it by definition he is a sub.

 

Not all subs play every game.

[moonslav59]

As of right now, Marrero has the most innings and PAs at 3B.

 

I guess that makes him our FT 3Bman and Devers should be classified as a sub.

 

Nunez is a FT player. Just because he does not play enough at any one position to be called the FT ____, doesn't mean he is not FT.

[Spudboy]

As of right now, Marrero has the most innings and PAs at 3B.

 

I guess that makes him our FT 3Bman and Devers should be classified as a sub.

 

Nunez is a FT player. Just because he does not play enough at any one position to be called the FT ____, doesn't mean he is not FT.

 

Yes.

 

That was my point, too.

 

His bat and his speed are too valuable to be sitting even if he is not a standout at any position defensively.

 

He needs to play as many games as possible.

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

That was my point, too.

 

His bat and his speed are too valuable to be sitting even if he is not a standout at any position defensively.

 

He needs to play as many games as possible.

 

As for 2018, I'd prefer a better fielder as our "super sub", but with offense being our biggest weakness, I'd love to bring Nunez back next year. I do not want his return to be at the expense of not being able to sign or acquire a big bat, but I think we can do both.

 

A bench of Leon, Nunez, Hernandez & Lin would be pretty nice, but the 4th and 5th OF slots are pretty damn scary.

 

I see Lin played 27 games in the OF this year in the minors, so maybe that will be enough. Nunez can also (pretend) to play LF.

 

Holt could be traded or DFA'd. Travis, Swihart and Marrero could challenge Lin for the last bench slot. Swihart will be out of options.

 

This assuming....

 

C Vaz

1B _____

DH HRam

2B Pedey

3b Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

 

Since Nunez can take the place of anyone but our catcher, he can play as much as any FT'er.

 

If he DHs, HRam can sit or play 1B.

If he plays 2B, Pedey can sit or play DH.

If he plays LF, Beni can sit or play CF and RF as JBJ or Betts rest.

He can play SS vs some RHPs and 3B vs most LHPs. (Bogey & Devers rest.)

He should be able to get 550+ PAs, even with no major injury to any FT'er.

This would also allow everyone to stay rested and fresh, in theory.

 

[Slasher9]

Not all subs play every game.

true. and no starter plays 4 different positions.

[Slasher9]

As of right now, Marrero has the most innings and PAs at 3B.

 

I guess that makes him our FT 3Bman and Devers should be classified as a sub.

 

 

thats not the point and you know it.

[Slasher9]

As for 2018, I'd prefer a better fielder as our "super sub", but with offense being our biggest weakness, I'd love to bring Nunez back next year. I do not want his return to be at the expense of not being able to sign or acquire a big bat, but I think we can do both.

 

A bench of Leon, Nunez, Hernandez & Lin would be pretty nice, but the 4th and 5th OF slots are pretty damn scary.

 

I see Lin played 27 games in the OF this year in the minors, so maybe that will be enough. Nunez can also (pretend) to play LF.

 

Holt could be traded or DFA'd. Travis, Swihart and Marrero could challenge Lin for the last bench slot. Swihart will be out of options.

 

This assuming....

 

C Vaz

1B _____

DH HRam

2B Pedey

3b Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

 

Since Nunez can take the place of anyone but our catcher, he can play as much as any FT'er.

 

If he DHs, HRam can sit or play 1B.

If he plays 2B, Pedey can sit or play DH.

If he plays LF, Beni can sit or play CF and RF as JBJ or Betts rest.

He can play SS vs some RHPs and 3B vs most LHPs. (Bogey & Devers rest.)

He should be able to get 550+ PAs, even with no major injury to any FT'er.

This would also allow everyone to stay rested and fresh, in theory.

 

 

this is the exact definition of a sub. you can refer to it as a "super" sub if you want. but it's still a sub.

[moonslav59]

thats not the point and you know it.

 

I get your point, but I think someone who could and should start 150+ games should be called FT not a sub- regardless of how many positions he plays.

 

Is HRam a FT player for us? He's only DH'd 98 times in 140 games. He's played 1B 17 times. He did not start in 26 games- some due to injury, which shouldn't be held against a player being called FT.

 

Nunez will likely end up playing over 130 games this year and end up with over 550 PAs.

 

I don't really care if he's called a super sub or not. I called him that myself, but being a super sub doesn't mean you can't also be called full time.

 

As of now, Nunez has more PAs than JBJ, Pedey, Vaz and Leon. He's not far from Moreland and HRam. All are considered FT, because they mostly play 1 position. Some have missed time due to injury.

 

Maybe it's all semantics, but maybe we can agree to call him our FT sub.

[moonslav59]

true. and no starter plays 4 different positions.

 

Hypothetical scenario...not even if he starts 162 games and more than anyone else on the team?

[Slasher9]

Hypothetical scenario...not even if he starts 162 games and more than anyone else on the team?

 

the second that happens i will call that player FT.

would you call either Vaz or Leon FT? i guess i would call both of them FT if i had to label them. if nunie and pedroia split 2b 2/3 games every 5 i guess i would call them both FT. but if he rotates positions giving various players blows i am sticking with "sub". or maybe "reliever". relief player.

[moonslav59]

the second that happens i will call that player FT.

would you call either Vaz or Leon FT? i guess i would call both of them FT if i had to label them. if nunie and pedroia split 2b 2/3 games every 5 i guess i would call them both FT. but if he rotates positions giving various players blows i am sticking with "sub". or maybe "reliever". relief player.

 

Makes sense.

 

I would call Vaz FT now, not Leon. Or, I might call it a platoon- not based on L v R but based on who is starting..

[a700hitter]

what position are you giving to him? unless he has a position with his name on it by definition he is a sub.

Everyday leadoff hitter. Is that good enough to call him a full time player? I think so.

[moonslav59]

Everyday leadoff hitter. Is that good enough to call him a full time player? I think so.

 

Good point.

 

Assuming we acquire a heavy hitting 1Bman this winter, do you think we should still try hard to bring Nunez back?

[a700hitter]

Good point.

 

Assuming we acquire a heavy hitting 1Bman this winter, do you think we should still try hard to bring Nunez back?

With his balky knee, I don't think we can count on Pedroia for 150 games even under ideal circumstances. Bogey's inability to handle a slider, he may need to sit from time to time. Devers may not be able to handle 3B defensively full time. If we sign or trade for a big 1B bat, I would rather move Hanley and keep Nunez who brings more value and versatility.

[Bellhorn04]

Unfortunately, Hanley is pretty much an immovable object contract-wise, especially with that stupid vesting option.

[a700hitter]

Unfortunately, Hanley is pretty much an immovable object contract-wise, especially with that stupid vesting option.

Yes, that is unfortunate. But he has to be more movable than Pablo was.

[moonslav59]

With his balky knee, I don't think we can count on Pedroia for 150 games even under ideal circumstances. Bogey's inability to handle a slider, he may need to sit from time to time. Devers may not be able to handle 3B defensively full time. If we sign or trade for a big 1B bat, I would rather move Hanley and keep Nunez who brings more value and versatility.

 

Moving HRam might involve paying $10-12M out of the $22M owed next year (and maybe 2019 as well).

 

I'm not happy with the defense of Nunez at 2B, SS or 3B, but his bat should more than make up for it. He's no Holt.

 

I've mentioned trying to include HRam as a salary offset piece, if we go after Stanton or Votto, but I'm not sure how realistic that can be.

[oldtimer]

As for 2018, I'd prefer a better fielder as our "super sub", but with offense being our biggest weakness, I'd love to bring Nunez back next year. I do not want his return to be at the expense of not being able to sign or acquire a big bat, but I think we can do both.

 

A bench of Leon, Nunez, Hernandez & Lin would be pretty nice, but the 4th and 5th OF slots are pretty damn scary.

 

I see Lin played 27 games in the OF this year in the minors, so maybe that will be enough. Nunez can also (pretend) to play LF.

 

Holt could be traded or DFA'd. Travis, Swihart and Marrero could challenge Lin for the last bench slot. Swihart will be out of options.

 

This assuming....

 

C Vaz

1B _____

DH HRam

2B Pedey

3b Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

 

Since Nunez can take the place of anyone but our catcher, he can play as much as any FT'er.

 

If he DHs, HRam can sit or play 1B.

If he plays 2B, Pedey can sit or play DH.

If he plays LF, Beni can sit or play CF and RF as JBJ or Betts rest.

He can play SS vs some RHPs and 3B vs most LHPs. (Bogey & Devers rest.)

He should be able to get 550+ PAs, even with no major injury to any FT'er.

This would also allow everyone to stay rested and fresh, in theory.

 

 

If you really want to think big, why not go after Manny Machado. At 26 years old now, he is one FA that we might get but it would break the bank. He could play third while we could consider moving Devers to ist. He is a great third baseman with the big bat we need. The amount of money would be equal to any we might sign and the contract period would be long, but he is in my view the best young 3rd baseman in the game today. That would leave Hanley as DH only with Nunez or Pedey filling in as needed.

[moonslav59]

Following up on the idea of trading for Stanton or Votto and including HRam as a "salary offset". Here's how the numbers unfold:

 

Votto is owed $157M/6 (including the $7M buyout of 2024, or $170M/7 if they keep him for 2024). Forget bringing up the age issue for now, let's look just at the financial numbers. While $157M/6 comes to over $26M a year. That's a lot, but the luxury tax cost is "just" $22.5M a year. That's basically what HRam makes. Cincy has no luxury tax concerns. They look at the $26M/yr number while we look at the $22.5M number. This alone makes this type of deal worth looking at from both sides. If we made this trade (HRam and some very good young talent) for Votto, we'd barely add any luxury tax dollars to our budget for 2018 and maybe 2019 (depending on HRam's vesting option). That would allow us to sign a top free agent, perhaps to replace a key young player included in the trade (like maybe Cozart, if we traded Bogey as part of the deal, Moustakas if we decide to move Devers to DH or JD Martinez, if we traded an OF'er).

 

Stanton: The same type of financial situation applies here. Stanton is owed $292M/10. That's $29M a year, but the luxury tax hit is "just" $25M a year--not bad for a team like the Sox trying to avoid paying a mega luxury tax. Including HRam in the deal would mean GS only costs us about $3M for the next two year (in the "window"). We'd be hit hard afterwards as we would be with Votto, but we'd be fine for 1-2 years still within the so-called window of our high chance of winning a ring.

 

If we include a player like Bogey or JBJ, we'd be able to subtract their arb costs over the next few years, but we'd have to replacee them in kind somehow.