A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[S5Dewey]

he should turn that down. thats the equivalent to the lester offer.

 

I dunnno... Maybe I come from the poor side of the tracks but I can't see turning down a guaranteed $100M to play baseball for 5 years. After that he could either retire or sign another contract for $20M/year - to play baseball.

[Nick]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

[Bellhorn04]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

And yet no one even put in a waiver claim on Stanton.

[mvp 78]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

I don't want you to be my GM.

[mvp 78]

Reportedly, Betts turned down a multi year extension from BOS. No word on any sort of amount at the moment.

[moonslav59]

To carry the thought further, there are 3 FA's out there who would be of interest. Zack Cosart is 32 this year. Taking him and either trading Bogaerts away or moving him to 3rd would give us a solid defensive SS with a 4.5 WAR this year. He is a right handed bat who hit .301 with a 933 OPS and has 17 HR's. His main issue is his age.

 

Mike Moustakas is a 29 yo left handed hitting 3rd baseman with 36 HR and batting better than .300 with an OPS of 861. I'd have to check his WAR but think it is 2.1

 

Eric Hosmer is a 28 yo left handed ist baseman with a 3.4WAR, 884 OPS with 23 HR and .317 avg.

 

Any of these would cost real money in the FA market but offer a big improvement at the position when compared to who we currently have. Signing one of these along with Nunez makes sense to me.

 

Cozart never hit more than 16 HRs before this year's 18. His .947 OPS screams "OUTLIER!". He's never been over .770 before this year. He's not our missing clean-up hitter and may be no better than a healthy Bogey next year.

 

Hosmer is NOT a clean-up hitter either. While 28 is a nice age for a FA and would be an upgrade over Moreland, I don't see him as filling the obvious need we have- power hitting clean up hitter. This is his first season over .822. He's inconsistent (under .762 in 2 of the last 4 seasons).

 

Moustakas seems to fit the need most from your list. 29 is a decent age for a big signing, but he also is having a somewhat "outlier season". His current .867 OPS is over 50 points better than any previous season. His 36 HRs are impressive, but he never hit more than 22 before and that was in 2015- the only year his OBP was above .320. He's risky, but I feel, he's the best choice of this bunch to fill our power hitter need. The problem is, we have a good, promising, young 3Bman now, and moving him to 1B might be premature.

 

JD Martinez is not on your list, and I hate signing a guy that would likely play DH almost FT AND force HRam to have to play 1B FT or platoon with Travis. JD will be 30 next year and has hit over 22 HRs for 4 straight seasons- something nobody above has done. He's also hit over 34 HRs twice (2017 and 2015). He's got a sweet OBP of over .340, but has been over .358 in 3 of his last 4 seasons. He's been over .879 four straight seasons. He fits our power hitting need best, but plays the wrong position. If he DHs and we go to an NL park, we have to sit one of our best 4 hitters: Martinez, Betts, Beni or JBJ.

 

Like I said, it's not an easy fix.

 

I doubt Votto is an easy get. He doesn't want to be traded. If we could get Cincy to take HRam as a salary offset along with a bunch of highly regarded young players, maybe they'd bite. Since they are losing Cozart, maybe they'd be interested in....

 

Bogey, Chatham, Groome, Chavis or Ockimey plus HRam instead of money.

 

We'd then have to find a SS.

 

Again, not an easy fix. (No Bogey would mean adding Flores and Beeks or more)

[S5Dewey]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

I'm not sure I'd do that. Our minor league pitching is quite shallow. I'd been preaching about Beni + Xander + ? for Stanton but that was in the hope that we could hold onto Betts into the future. This turn of events makes Mookie a little more expendable.

 

Of course, that's the same reason the Marlins may not want him!

[moonslav59]

And yet no one even put in a waiver claim on Stanton.

 

That doesn't always mean what it looks like.

 

Nobody claimed Manny either, yet years later when he was imploding mentally and everyone knew we were trying to dump him, we got jason bay for him.

[Slasher9]

I dunnno... Maybe I come from the poor side of the tracks but I can't see turning down a guaranteed $100M to play baseball for 5 years. After that he could either retire or sign another contract for $20M/year - to play baseball.

 

i hear you that $100MM is life changing. IMO the Sox are trying to take advantage of his "down" year offensively with this offer. a 5 year deal will really only net us/him 2 FA years, correct? i believe he is arb eligible thru 2020? plus, do we really expect him to take the first offer?

i dont know, maybe 5 years at $100MM is fair. but i think if we arent going to offer him 10 years - he would prefer to be a FA with an age that starts with a "2" rather then a "3". and a 5 year contract now puts him at "3".....

[Slasher9]

Reportedly, Betts turned down a multi year extension from BOS. No word on any sort of amount at the moment.

your a page late bruh.

[moonslav59]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

Sub Chavis or Ockimey and Beeks or Lakins for Betts, and I'd think about it.

 

Maybe they'd take HRam back as a salary offset piece.

 

HRam

Bogey

ERod

Ockimey

Lakins

[moonslav59]

i hear you that $100MM is life changing. IMO the Sox are trying to take advantage of his "down" year offensively with this offer. a 5 year deal will really only net us/him 2 FA years, correct? i believe he is arb eligible thru 2020? plus, do we really expect him to take the first offer?

i dont know, maybe 5 years at $100MM is fair. but i think if we arent going to offer him 10 years - he would prefer to be a FA with an age that starts with a "2" rather then a "3". and a 5 year contract now puts him at "3".....

 

Betts has 3 arb years. This winter will be his first, and players do not get full value their first arb year, especially after a "down year".

 

I'm not great at predicting arb contracts, but Mookie might make $40-50M total in the next 3 years. That means the extension was really about $55M/2. To me, that's borderline "lowball". It's the first offer, so there could be some back and forth. If Betts doesn't want 10 years, I'd go as high as $135M/6, which is really about $85M/3 after arbs.

[Slasher9]

Betts has 3 arb years. This winter will be his first, and players do not get full value their first arb year, especially after a "down year".

 

I'm not great at predicting arb contracts, but Mookie might make $40-50M total in the next 3 years. That means the extension was really about $55M/2. To me, that's borderline "lowball". It's the first offer, so there could be some back and forth. If Betts doesn't want 10 years, I'd go as high as $135M/6, which is really about $85M/3 after arbs.

 

I honestly think it all comes down to his age when this "short" contract would end. again, the age beginning with a 2 or a 3. i bet he would take 4 years/$70MM or even $65MM before taking $100/5 or even $110.

[Spudboy]

if he wants a 7-10 contract, they should say goodbye to Mookie. That is too much money for a guy whose game is heavily dependent on speed. He'll be finished as a top exchelon player by 30-31 imo.

 

I agree that he should not be paid bigly for 7-10 years. That would be bad business. I agree that his skill set is largely dependent his speed.

 

If he showed signs of being the player he was last year he would be in a better position to bargain now.

 

I like Marcus but f*** him if he turns down any reasonable offer now.

 

Dope.

[Spudboy]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

 

Boom.

[mvp 78]

your a page late bruh.

 

Nope. Both posts are on the same page for me. I just didn't see the other one. #FAKENEWS

[Maxbialystock]

Boom.

 

Maybe the question now is, would Jeter go for getting Betts, Bogie, and ERod for Stanton? I was going to say no because Stanton is also a draw, but guess what? With him Miami averages 20K per home game, 3d worst in MLB. All three of those guys have potential and Bett maybe a ton of potential, and their salaries are definitely in line.

[a700hitter]

I would trade Betts, Xander and E Rod for Stanton.

Me 2.

[Nick]

I don't like our offensive make up. All of you complain about lack of power yet you don't want to do anything about it. You take drastic steps. Just as we did with Price, Pom and Sale on starters and Kimbrel as a closer.

 

Quit wasting time on fringe power hitters. Votto and Stanton are you power hitters. We are resetting the penalty rate for 2018.

 

Make an offer they can't refuse. Mark my word. DD will go big this winter. Move past Betts. Why in the hell would you give him $100M after the season he just had? See what his arbitration value comes in at.

 

Maybe Boston bowling alleys are inadequate.

Edited September 7, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Me 2.

 

You guys are whacked.

[moonslav59]

I don't like our offensive make up. All of you complain about lack of power yet you don't want to do anything about it. You take drastic steps. Just as we did with Price, Pom and Sale on starters and Kimbrel as a closer.

 

Quit wasting time on fringe power hitters. Votto and Stanton are you power hitters. We are resetting the penalty rate for 2018.

 

Make an offer they can't refuse. Mark my word. DD will go big this winter. Move past Betts. Why in the hell would you give him $100M after the season he just had? See what his arbitration value comes in at.

 

My guess is that while GMs value what you did the last year, they look beyond just one time frame of data.

 

I agree on the idea that DD will be looking for a big splash power hitter this winter, and I'm not talking the 15-25 HR power of Hosmer or Cozart.

 

I'd be lobbying for JD Martinez, if we could play him someplace other than DH.

 

Stanton or Votto seem like the obvious choices, but both get paid a lot, and paying money plus giving up several top young players is usually something I am against.

 

I loved the Sale trade, because it was just prospects. His contract was a bargain.

 

I'm not saying I'm against trading for Stanton or Votto, but I'd like to see the offer before agreeing on it.

 

I might go with...

 

Bogey

Groome

Chavis or Ockimey

Beeks or Shawaryn

(If we could get them to take HRam off our hands as a salary offset, I'd add other prospects like Dalbec & Lakins

[Nick]

You guys are whacked.

 

As one gets closer to death, you gamble little bit more.

[Emp9]

I'd be lobbying for JD Martinez, if we could play him someplace other than DH.

 

But why Moon? JD gets hurt every year anyway. He has an extensive injury history. I'd wouldn't think twice about using him as our full time DH, and this is coming from someone who loves the idea of a rotating DH. But if a hitter like JD (or Stanton, obviously) can be added, I'm willing to scrap that idea until it makes sense again. I'll put all that aside for "The Window".

Edited September 7, 2017 by Emp9

[moonslav59]

22 Games left- about an 1/8th of a season.

 

6 vs TBR (3H/3A)

4 v HOU (last 4 of the year)

3 v OAK

3 v TOR

3 @ BAL

3 @ CIN

 

If we can't keep the lead with this schedule, then we weren't all that good to begin with.

 

Let's look at our WAR leaders (fangraphs) at the 140 game mark:

 

7.5 Sale (1st among pitchers only)

4.0 Betts (28th among everyday players)

2.9 Kimbrel (26th)

2.8 Pom(32nd)

2.4 JBJ (82nd)

2.3 Bogey (88th)

2.0 Beni (108)

2.0 Pedey (109)

2.0 Nunez (111)

1.9 Porcello (73rd)

1.7 ERod (87th)

1.2 Vaz (176)

1.2 Price (133)

1.1 Fister (138)

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Moreland

0.8 Devers

0.7 Kelly

0.5 Hembree

0.4 Abad

0.3 Workman, Boyer

0.2 Leon, Johnson, Maddox

0.1 Marrero. Velazquez

-0.1 HRam, Young, Taylor

-0.2 Reed

-0.3 Scott

-0.5 Wright

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Emp9]

I dunnno... Maybe I come from the poor side of the tracks but I can't see turning down a guaranteed $100M to play baseball for 5 years. After that he could either retire or sign another contract for $20M/year - to play baseball.

 

Could it be he wants more years too?

[moonslav59]

I'd be lobbying for JD Martinez, if we could play him someplace other than DH.

 

But why Moon? JD gets hurt every year anyway. He has an extensive injury history. I'd wouldn't think twice about using him as our full time DH, and this is coming from someone who loves the idea of a rotating DH. But if a hitter like JD (or Stanton, obviously) can be added, I'm willing to scrap that idea until it makes sense again. I'll put all that aside for "The Window".

 

I see HRam as our DH next year-like it or not.

 

Forcing HRam to play 1B FT is asking for trouble.

 

Now, if we could find a way to get rid of HRam and sign JD, I'd listen.

 

How's this?

 

Trade HRam, Bogey, Groome and Ockimey for Votto.

 

Sign: JD Martinez & Cozart.

 

(I'm dreaming: I know.)

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. JD DH

4. Votto 1B

5. Cozart SS

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz/Leon C

 

Bench: Leon, Hernandez, Lin and Holt

 

 

[OH FOY]

I remember when JD was waived by the Astros, and DD picked him up. One year with Miggy as a mentor, and he's been lights out since.

[Spudboy]

22 Games left- about an 1/8th of a season.

 

6 vs TBR (3H/3A)

4 v HOU (last 4 of the year)

3 v OAK

3 v TOR

3 @ BAL

3 @ CIN

 

If we can't keep the lead with this schedule, then we weren't all that good to begin with.

 

Let's look at our WAR leaders (fangraphs) at the 140 game mark:

 

7.5 Sale (1st among pitchers only)

4.0 Betts (28th among everyday players)

2.9 Kimbrel (26th)

2.8 Pom(32nd)

2.4 JBJ (82nd)

2.3 Bogey (88th)

2.0 Beni (108)

2.0 Pedey (109)

2.0 Nunez (111)

1.9 Porcello (73rd)

1.7 ERod (87th)

1.2 Vaz (176)

1.2 Price (133)

1.1 Fister (138)

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Moreland

0.8 Devers

0.7 Kelly

0.5 Hembree

0.4 Abad

0.3 Workman, Boyer

0.2 Leon, Johnson, Maddox

0.1 Marrero. Velazquez

-0.1 HRam, Young, Taylor

-0.2 Reed

-0.3 Scott

-0.5 Wright

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is Holt?

[moonslav59]

Where is Holt?

 

-0.8

 

I only listed players with 150+ PAs. Holt has 122.

 

Project him to 610 PAs at this same rate, and he'd be at -4.0 for the year.

[Maxbialystock]

22 Games left- about an 1/8th of a season.

 

6 vs TBR (3H/3A)

4 v HOU (last 4 of the year)

3 v OAK

3 v TOR

3 @ BAL

3 @ CIN

 

If we can't keep the lead with this schedule, then we weren't all that good to begin with.

 

Let's look at our WAR leaders (fangraphs) at the 140 game mark:

 

7.5 Sale (1st among pitchers only)

4.0 Betts (28th among everyday players)

2.9 Kimbrel (26th)

2.8 Pom(32nd)

2.4 JBJ (82nd)

2.3 Bogey (88th)

2.0 Beni (108)

2.0 Pedey (109)

2.0 Nunez (111)

1.9 Porcello (73rd)

1.7 ERod (87th)

1.2 Vaz (176)

1.2 Price (133)

1.1 Fister (138)

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Moreland

0.8 Devers

0.7 Kelly

0.5 Hembree

0.4 Abad

0.3 Workman, Boyer

0.2 Leon, Johnson, Maddox

0.1 Marrero. Velazquez

-0.1 HRam, Young, Taylor

-0.2 Reed

-0.3 Scott

-0.5 Wright

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Terrific, thanks.

 

I use WAR myself, but am always suspicious because I don't know where the ratings come from. Also, some of those numbers above are low simply because of the number of games played. Thus to me Nunez's 2.0 is probably 3.0. I'm delighted Betts is so high, surely because of his defense. JBJ a little lower than I expected and certainly closer to Bogie than I would put him. And no way I put Bogie higher than Beni.

 

The WAR ratings are for the season to date, so cannot of course reflect anyone who seems to have really turned things around--see especially Fister. I think Devers's defense hurts his overall WAR more than it should--plus of course the much shorter season.

 

If there were a moonslav version of WAR, I probably would go with that instead.

 

The best thing about those WAR ratings is that they generally rate our pitchers higher than our lineup players. Very credible to me.