A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[a700hitter]

Betts is awesome on D. He covers a lot of ground in Fenway's massive RF.

 

Bogey is not "solid" on D, unless you think slightly below average (at best) is "solid"..

 

The rest I agree with.

I said that Betts was a top defender. But he is not at Bradley's level.

 

I don't think Bogaert's D is as bad as you make it out to be. He does have more trouble going to his right than he has going into the hole. His arm is strong and consistent.

[moonslav59]

Juiced ball is out (this assumes everyone is hitting the same balls)

 

IMO, the overall approach has to change. The bit about taking automatically taking strike one has to be altered. If the pitch is on the outside corner at the knees, fine. But how many times have we watched get me over fastballs in the middle of the plate let go. Most of the time they don't even follow the pitch. And even when they swing at them, I'm not convinced they are fully committed to doing so. Another thing these guys have to learn to do is foul off tough 2 strike pitches. Yeah,sometimes the pitcher is going to get you. The Yankees did this to perfection against both Sale and Pomeranz. There is no reason most of these guys can't do the same thing. Finally, if they are going to pitch you outside, go the other way.

 

Agreed. We seem to be using the same hitting philosophy we've used for years. Other teams have adjusted. We have nit adjusted to their adjustments.

[Maxbialystock]

I said that Betts was a top defender. But he is not at Bradley's level.

 

I don't think Bogaert's D is as bad as you make it out to be. He does have more trouble going to his right than he has going into the hole. His arm is strong and consistent.

 

Just my opinion, but I put Betts even with JBJ (as great as he is). JBJ has the better nose for the ball, runs great routes, and seems to have a very good feel for where he is and what is possible. Betts is nevertheless faster, which helps compensate for not as good instincts. JBJ might have the stronger arm, but Betts has a strong one too and is I think more consistent and accurate. I think Beni will complete our outfield trio nicely because he too is fast and has a good (not great) arm. And right now he is the best hitter of the three.

[moonslav59]

I said that Betts was a top defender. But he is not at Bradley's level.

 

I don't think Bogaert's D is as bad as you make it out to be. He does have more trouble going to his right than he has going into the hole. His arm is strong and consistent.

 

I'd say Betts is very close to JBJ's level. Both are GG caliber. I would also say JBJ is slightly better, but it is very close to the same level.

 

Bogey is not even an average defender at SS. Even if you want to claim he's slightly above average, I would not call that "solid".

 

Plus, he's gotten worse over the last 2 years, when one would normally expect improvement.

 

2016-2017 (33 SSs with 1000+ innings)

19th in UZR/150 (-2.2)

33rd in DRS (-23)

 

These numbers show he is not even average. Defensive Runs saved show he is the very worst. You may disagree with the validity of defensive metrics, but calling the worst DRS'd SS "Solid" is really a stretch.

 

Note: 2014-2015 (34 SSs with 1000+ innings)

19th in UZR/150 (0.9) slightly better than 2016 to 2017

22nd in DRS (-10) way better than 2016-2017

 

Bogey has clearly gotten at least a little worse. He started out below average. He is now clearly below average. One could argue he is bottom 5 to 6 out of 30.

 

He's not a "solid defender".

 

Not even close.

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Juiced ball is out (this assumes everyone is hitting the same balls)

 

Not necessarily. I think if you look at the overall improvements in offensive numbers most of it is coming from the home run ball.

 

If our team really is just a bunch of single hitters we're not going to benefit quite as much from the ball being juiced.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB teams are averaging 1.27 HR per game this year compared to 1.16 last year.

 

That's a 10% increase.

 

That's huge.

[moonslav59]

Not necessarily. I think if you look at the overall improvements in offensive numbers most of it is coming from the home run ball.

 

If our team really is just a bunch of single hitters we're not going to benefit quite as much from the ball being juiced.

 

That makes some sense, but we had several players who had way more HRs last year than this:

 

HRs 2016 to 2017

 

31 Betts 18 (on pace for 21)

30 HRam 22 (25)

26 JBJ 14 (17)

21 Bogey 8 (9)

15 Pedey 6 (7)

 

These 5 players hit 122 HRs last year.

This year, those 5 are on pace to hit 79. That's a massive decline from our top 5 HR players last year.

 

What's the reason?

 

[Bellhorn04]

That makes some sense, but we had several players who had way more HRs last year than this:

 

HRs 2016 to 2017

 

31 Betts 18 (on pace for 21)

30 HRam 22 (25)

26 JBJ 14 (17)

21 Bogey 8 (9)

15 Pedey 6 (7)

 

These 5 players hit 122 HRs last year.

This year, those 5 are on pace to hit 79. That's a massive decline from our top 5 HR players last year.

 

What's the reason?

 

 

I don't know what the reason for our decline is.

 

But I do suspect that the ball being juiced has a lot to do with overall run scoring increasing across MLB.

 

A 10% increase in home run balls is just a tad fishy IMO.

[moonslav59]

I don't know what the reason for our decline is.

 

But I do suspect that the ball being juiced has a lot to do with overall run scoring increasing across MLB.

 

A 10% increase in home run balls is just a tad fishy IMO.

 

I don't disagree, but then that means our decline in HRs is even more unexplainable.

 

With a juiced ball we should have seen an increase from our top HR players. We had 2 returning players who hit 30 HRs last year. Those two are on pace to go from 61 HRs to 46. Our next 3 are on pace to go from 62 to 33.

 

Without a juiced ball, I guess we'd have even less HRs than we see here.

 

I'm not saying the ball didn't change, but if it was, it makes our decline even more shocking. Let's look at SLG% from 2016 to 2017.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=1&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

 

13 of the top 18 teams are from 2017.

19 of the top 29 teams are from 2017.

 

The leaders:

 

1. HOU '17 .485

2. BOS '16 .461

...

43. BOS '17 .408

 

While the league has gone from .417 to .427 from 2016 to 2017, much less than the HR increase, the Sox went from .461 to .408.

 

Sure, Papi's loss accounts for some of that decline, but Moreland has done better than expected and leads the team in SLG at .442. That's way worse than Papi's .620 from last year, but still.

 

Our young and in prime hitters have greatly declined.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html?smid=tw-share

 

The Red Sox have apparently added a modern — and illicit — twist: They used an Apple Watch to gain an advantage against the Yankees and other teams.

[mvp 78]

As part of the inquiry, baseball investigators have interviewed the Red Sox team trainers and outfielder Chris Young, a former Yankees player. The Red Sox told league investigators that the team’s manager, John Farrell, general manager, Dave Dombrowski, and other front-office officials were not aware of the sign-stealing operation, the people said.

[Northern Star]

Well, a fat load of good it did.

[SoxHop]

Well, a fat load of good it did.

 

That was exactly what I was thinking. They should turn this incident into an add for Microsoft.

[Kimmi]

Pedey is being a poor role model.

 

We need a team full of Pedroias and his grit.

[Kimmi]

Good points. It's kind of surprising we have scored so much with just about everyone but Vaz doing worse or much worse than last year.

 

Well, I didn't think we'd drop off by over 100 runs, so the number sounds about right to me, considering the underperformances.

[Kimmi]

Apparently Sox has no plans to bring up Bryce.

 

What a bunch of f***ing idiots. This is similar to Devers. Just give the guy few at bats. WHAT THE f*** IS THE DOWNSIDE? Our offense might stall for one game? He hits 31 home runs. WHY THE f*** KEEP HIM AND WASTE A ROSTER SPOT. Promote a younger guy. What a bunch of f***ing idiots. I hope they lose every f***ing game. What a bunch of morons.

 

I am surprised that they won't make room on the 40 man for Brentz. I don't think he will be anything special, but he certainly couldn't hurt and he certainly deserves the chance. It's too bad for him.

[moonslav59]

We need a team full of Pedroias and his grit.

 

Agree. I was only speaking towards his influence on others concerning taking the first pitch so damn often.

[Kimmi]

As of today, Boston ranked 26th in SLGPCT. Ranked 23rd in total bases. Ranked 24th Grounding into DP's and ranked 28th leaving runners on base which is not good.. I understand some of these stats are mis-leading but it is what it is.

 

The problem is combination of several young players either not being Coached correctly and or not being mentally prepared to adjust or play on a daily basis. Then again, who really knows. Another september slide and a quick exit in the playoffs Dombrowksi has to start churning over this roster and eliminating the deadweight to include the coaching staff..

 

It aint over, but with the Sale struggles of late and the zero production from Ramirez your in trouble

 

The enigma to me is why their slugging % is so low. I understand that we don't have a team full of Ortizes, but these guys can slug better than they have been. They can hit more homeruns than they have been. It's odd that it's a team wide epidemic. Hanley, Betts, and Bogaerts look absolutely pathetic right now.

 

Betts usually takes the first pitch, and it's often a fastball right down Broadway. Last night, he finally decided to swing at a first pitch, and it was a breaking ball that was nowhere near the strike zone. It's hard to believe that he is being fooled that badly.

[Kimmi]

Sox are #7 in runs scored in AL. 653 at this moment. Chances are that is where they will finish. Remember the other 6 teams in front of them play games too. Twins have scored 24 more runs than us.

Sox scored 878 runs last year. Man we miss Ortiz. For the Sox to reach this number they would have to score 9.3 runs a game rest of season.

We might have to think about Stanton.

 

As I said with calling up Devers or acquiring some other power hitter, that won't do us any good if the guys we have don't get their heads out of their butts. Of course the team was going to miss Ortiz. Any team would. But his absence is not the reason that we are as many runs below last year's production as we currently are.

[moonslav59]

Well, I didn't think we'd drop off by over 100 runs, so the number sounds about right to me, considering the underperformances.

 

I thought we'd drop to 3rd or 5th in runs scored, so I guess that means about 100 runs, but that assumed the rest of the league wasn't going to start going bonkers with more HRs and runs scored.

 

If I had told you that we'd lose Papi, and 8 out of our top 8 returning players by PAs would decline in OPS- many by more than 100 points, I think we'd expect scoring much less than just a 100 to 120 run differential.

 

Returning Players Only

2016 to 2017 (In order of 2016 PAs)

 

.897 Betts .760 (-137)

.802 Bogey .728 (-74)

.825 Pedey .778 (-47)

.835 J. B. J. .776 (-59)

.866 HRam .760 (-106)

.705 Holt .500 (-205)

.845 Leon .652 (-193)

.850 Young .710 (-140)_______

 

.585 Vaz .734 (+149)

.835 Beni .798 (-37)

 

4 of 8 are 137 points or worse! 5 of our top 8 returning players are doing over 100 points worse! All 8 are worse by 47 points or more.

 

That's shocking.

 

Edited September 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Agree. I was only speaking towards his influence on others concerning taking the first pitch so damn often.

 

The problem, as many stated, is that the hitters have become predictable. When you're predictable, the opposition can exploit what you're doing.

 

That said, on the rare times when I do see our hitters swing at the first pitch, it seems like they're hitting a lot of lazy fly balls, thereby giving the opposing pitcher an easy one pitch out. That's frustrating too.

[Kimmi]

I thought we'd drop to 3rd or 5th in runs scored, so I guess that means about 100 runs, but that assumed the rest of the league wasn't going to start going bonkers with more HRs and runs scored.

 

If I had told you that we'd lose Papi, and 8 out of our top 8 returning players by PAs would decline in OPS- many by more than 100 points, I think we'd expect scoring much less than just a 100 to 120 run differential.

 

Returning Players Only

2016 to 2017 (In order of 2016 PAs)

 

.897 Betts .760 (-137)

.802 Bogey .728 (-74)

.825 Pedey .778 (-47)

.835 J. B. J. .776 (-59)

.866 HRam .760 (-106)

.705 Holt .500 (-205)

.845 Leon .652 (-193)

.850 Young .710 (-140)_______

 

.585 Vaz .734 (+149)

.835 Beni .798 (-37)

 

4 of 8 are 137 points or worse! 5 of our top 8 returning players are doing over 100 points worse! All 8 are worse by 47 points or more.

 

That's shocking.

 

 

I agree completely. Many posters seem to think that they are what they are, and this team just isn't very good. Personally, I still think the offensive talent is there, and that the underperformances are puzzling.

 

At any rate, as frustrated as I am with the team right now, it's not as bad as it looks after this recent mini fall. I remain optimistic about this team.

[moonslav59]

The problem, as many stated, is that the hitters have become predictable. When you're predictable, the opposition can exploit what you're doing.

 

That said, on the rare times when I do see our hitters swing at the first pitch, it seems like they're hitting a lot of lazy fly balls, thereby giving the opposing pitcher an easy one pitch out. That's frustrating too.

 

It's still got to be done. We have to break the cycle of predictability, or we are probably doomed.

 

BTW, when we do swing at the first pitch and put it in play, we have an .821 OPS.

[moonslav59]

I agree completely. Many posters seem to think that they are what they are, and this team just isn't very good. Personally, I still think the offensive talent is there, and that the underperformances are puzzling.

 

At any rate, as frustrated as I am with the team right now, it's not as bad as it looks after this recent mini fall. I remain optimistic about this team.

 

I'm less optimistic than I was earlier in the year, but I still have hopes.

 

I am not very hopeful our hitters will improve. I was earlier.

 

I remain hopeful, because I love our pitching and defense. Our base running is a plus, too, if we can avoid making so many blunders while still remaining aggressive.

 

I've always been a believer that a Sox team can win without being a leader in offense.

 

I still believe.

[Kimmi]

It's still got to be done. We have to break the cycle of predictability, or we are probably doomed.

 

BTW, when we do swing at the first pitch and put it in play, we have an .821 OPS.

 

Well there you go. I agree, the Sox need to become less predictable.

[moonslav59]

Well there you go. I agree, the Sox need to become less predictable.

 

We've only swung at and put in play a first pitch in 421 PAs in 5368 total PAs.

 

That's under 8%.

 

I wonder how many team's have a number that low.

[Bellhorn04]

We've only swung at and put in play a first pitch in 421 PAs in 5368 total PAs.

 

That's under 8%.

 

I wonder how many team's have a number that low.

 

I'm not going to look up every team, but the MLB team average is 10.9%.

[Bellhorn04]

One interesting little nugget:

 

The MLB average OPS for PA's in which the hitter swung at the first pitch is .745.

The MLB average OPS for PA's in which the hitter took the first pitch is .755.

[harmony]

We've only swung at and put in play a first pitch in 421 PAs in 5368 total PAs.

 

That's under 8%.

 

I wonder how many team's have a number that low.

I don't know about putting the ball in play, but here are the Red Sox and American League splits for swinging at the first pitch vs. taking the first pitch:

 

RS swing 1091 PA, .260/.284/.407/.692

RS take 4277 PA, .259/.344/.409/.753

 

AL swing 22148 PA, .274/.299/.464/.763

AL take 56561 PA, .249/.336/.415/.751

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2017

 

The Red Sox swung at 20.3 percent of the first pitches while the league swung at 28.1 percent of the first pitches.

[moonslav59]

I don't know about putting the ball in play, but here are the Red Sox and American League splits for swinging at the first pitch vs. taking the first pitch:

 

RS swing 1091 PA, .260/.284/.407/.692

RS take 4277 PA, .259/.344/.409/.753

 

AL swing 22148 PA, .274/.299/.464/.763

AL take 56561 PA, .249/.336/.415/.751

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2017

 

 

The Red Sox swung at 20.3 percent of the first pitches while the league swung at 28.1 percent of the first pitches.

 

Baseball Reference has us with 421 PAs on the first pitch. I'm assuming that measn we put the ball in play 421 times. In those 421 PAs, we had an .821 OPS.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2017