A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Hot & Cold are hard to project.

 

I'm worried mostly about our health.

 

Pedey

 

JBJ

 

Nunez

 

Price

 

Barnes

 

(C Smith)

 

[oldtimer]

Looks like Bogey may have snapped out of it on his own.

 

It's possible as he has shown some signs these last few games.

[moonslav59]

It's possible as he has shown some signs these last few games.

 

Yeah, it's a small sample size, but Bogey does have a hit in 8 of his last 10 games and reached on a BB in one of those two oh -fer games.

 

He's 12 for his last 35 ABs and has reached base in 18 of his last 41 PAs.

 

Let's hope this has been more than a blip.

[Kimmi]

Three points on 3 different topics:

 

1. The news on JBJ's return is promising. He has progressed to a soft cast quicker than scheduled.

 

2. Whether Moreland returns or not might have more to do with the type of contract he is looking for rather than whether the FO wants him back or not. IMO, 1B is the only real area of need, so the Sox have the financial flexibility to more or less do what they want with 1B, not that I'm condoning a long term contract to anyone.

 

3. While it is important for the Sox to 'hot' in the playoffs, momentum going into the playoffs, good or bad, really amounts to nothing. The idea that a team will win a playoff series because they have momentum is another one of those great myths.

[moonslav59]

... While it is important for the Sox to 'hot' in the playoffs, momentum going into the playoffs, good or bad, really amounts to nothing. The idea that a team will win a playoff series because they have momentum is another one of those great myths.

 

Has anyone ever done a study?

 

Remember the year we swept the Rickies in the WS, they had an incredible hot streak just to make the playoffs, then they ona nd on,

until they met the Sox.

 

I realize that is just one example, but I am wondering about studies on this matter.

[OH FOY]

Dodgers losing this year would be something. They have had a 3 Month hot streak, looks like nothing at this time is slowing them down. 55 games over .500 shows that.

Doing this without Kershaw too. That's shows you how strong they are.

Now, I understand Kershaw has struggled in the Play-offs but, if he gets his Mojo, that will be one tough team to beat.

Edited August 26, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Dodgers losing this year would be something. They have had a 3 Month hot streak, looks like nothing at this time is slowing them down. 55 games over .500 shows that.

Doing this without Kershaw too. That's shows you how strong they are.

Now, I understand Kershaw has struggled in the Play-offs but, if he gets his Mojo, that will be one tough team to beat.

 

More than just Kershaw...

[Maxbialystock]

Has anyone ever done a study?

 

Remember the year we swept the Rickies in the WS, they had an incredible hot streak just to make the playoffs, then they ona nd on,

until they met the Sox.

 

I realize that is just one example, but I am wondering about studies on this matter.

 

I remember that like it was yesterday and believe that the Rockies cooled off waiting for the Sox to finished their 7 game ALCS series. The year was 2007, and the Rockies waited 9 days, Oct 15-24, between the NLCS and the WS.

[notin]

I remember that like it was yesterday and believe that the Rockies cooled off waiting for the Sox to finished their 7 game ALCS series. The year was 2007, and the Rockies waited 9 days, Oct 15-24, between the NLCS and the WS.

 

 

Did they cool off waiting or just face a better team or did the odds catch up with them?

 

They were something like 21-1 going into the WS. It should be no surprise when an unsustainable pace is no longer sustained...

[Kimmi]

Has anyone ever done a study?

 

Remember the year we swept the Rickies in the WS, they had an incredible hot streak just to make the playoffs, then they ona nd on,

until they met the Sox.

 

I realize that is just one example, but I am wondering about studies on this matter.

 

Yes, they have done studies on this. There have been all kinds of studies done to try to determine what teams are successful in the postseason. The factor that correlates strongest to postseason success is regular season success, but even that is not a great predictor.

 

As far as the momentum thing goes, Baseball Prospectus did a study analyzing the correlation between a team's performance in the final week, the final 2 weeks, the final 3 weeks, and the final month of the regular season and a team's postseason performance. None of the correlations even reached .05. In other words, the relationship is random.

 

There is also no carryover of momentum into the next game after a team has a big comeback win late in a game.

[Kimmi]

Did they cool off waiting or just face a better team or did the odds catch up with them?

 

They were something like 21-1 going into the WS. It should be no surprise when an unsustainable pace is no longer sustained...

 

Player streaks and team streaks come and go without warning.

[Maxbialystock]

Did they cool off waiting or just face a better team or did the odds catch up with them?

 

They were something like 21-1 going into the WS. It should be no surprise when an unsustainable pace is no longer sustained...

 

Agree 21-1 not sustainable, but they lost all four games to the Sox. I'm assuming that the 9 days didn't affect their hitting so much, but there is no way it didn't affect their starters. In their 7 NLDS/NLCS games, they gave up a total 16 runs. In the four Sox games they gave up 31 runs, including 13 in game 1. We had the home field advantage, but so did the two NL teams, Philly and Arizona.

[moonslav59]

The studies might be skewed by teams losing near the end of the season, because they rested starters.

[moonslav59]

Brian Johnson

 

7 IP

2 H

1 BB

2 ER

 

Carson Smith

1 IP

0 H

0 BB

0 ER

0 K

[oldtimer]

Three points on 3 different topics:

 

1. The news on JBJ's return is promising. He has progressed to a soft cast quicker than scheduled.

 

2. Whether Moreland returns or not might have more to do with the type of contract he is looking for rather than whether the FO wants him back or not. IMO, 1B is the only real area of need, so the Sox have the financial flexibility to more or less do what they want with 1B, not that I'm condoning a long term contract to anyone.

 

3. While it is important for the Sox to 'hot' in the playoffs, momentum going into the playoffs, good or bad, really amounts to nothing. The idea that a team will win a playoff series because they have momentum is another one of those great myths.

 

If your saying that a team that goes into a playoff pitching poorly, hitting poorly and defending poorly is as likely to win playoff series, then I disagree. Last year that happened to us and the result is we didn't compete. Now we are on a terrible 3 game funk and show signs of losinng our hard fought for advantage. Getting Pedey and jbj back would help but we also need to confront problems and be willing to make changes which improve our chances.

[moonslav59]

If your saying that a team that goes into a playoff pitching poorly, hitting poorly and defending poorly is as likely to win playoff series, then I disagree. Last year that happened to us and the result is we didn't compete. Now we are on a terrible 3 game funk and show signs of losinng our hard fought for advantage. Getting Pedey and jbj back would help but we also need to confront problems and be willing to make changes which improve our chances.

 

We're a long way from the playoffs.

 

Remember, last year, we won 11 in a row before losing 5 of the last 6.

 

1) Do you think we'd have beaten CLE had we finished the season going 11-0 AFTER losing 5 of 6?

 

2) Does this 3 games stretch have anything to do with how we will finish this regular season?

 

2A) If it does have anything to do with what state we are in 5 weeks from now, does that fact that we got swept last year after finishing poorly really a strong predictor of what will happen this year?

 

[OH FOY]

We're just damn lucky the Yanks lost Friday night, otherwise 2 in loss column. This is far from over, to win Division. Not counting chickens yet.

I was there for awhile, but came to my senses.

Edited August 27, 2017 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

We're a long way from the playoffs.

 

Remember, last year, we won 11 in a row before losing 5 of the last 6.

 

1) Do you think we'd have beaten CLE had we finished the season going 11-0 AFTER losing 5 of 6?

 

2) Does this 3 games stretch have anything to do with how we will finish this regular season?

 

2A) If it does have anything to do with what state we are in 5 weeks from now, does that fact that we got swept last year after finishing poorly really a strong predictor of what will happen this year?

 

 

We're a long way from the playoffs in terms of winning and losing streaks so I don't believe that what's happening during the last week in August is going to have an impact on how well the team is playing in October. Does how they were playing during the 3rd week in July have any bearing on what's happened the past two days?

 

However, I do think that how well they're playing - or rather, how many wins they're accumulating - during the last week in September could have a bearing on what happens in the playoffs. A team that's breezing along with a good winning streak is often getting ~7+ innings from their starters and they're able to rest their bullpen whereas a team that's in the midst of a losing streak is usually overworking their BP. Losses due to an overworked BP is a self perpetuating thing in that the more they're overworked the less effective they are, and so ad infinitum.

 

There's also the issue of a team having a "winning attitude" vs. having a "losing attitude" which I also believe in. I'm hesitant to open that can of worms again but I believe that's also a factor, albeit one that probably can't be statistically proven.

[Kimmi]

The studies might be skewed by teams losing near the end of the season, because they rested starters.

 

The study actually found some evidence that coming in 'cold' could be beneficial because 'slumping' teams were the ones that were resting their starters. In other words, given the choice between playing all out to win home field advantage or having rested players, a team is probably better off having rested players.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of these things are pretty easy to check out and you don't have to be a stat whiz, you just have to know how to use Baseball-Reference and have some free time. I think what you will find is that there's no consistent pattern whatsoever in how the World Series champs were playing at the end of the season.

[Kimmi]

If your saying that a team that goes into a playoff pitching poorly, hitting poorly and defending poorly is as likely to win playoff series, then I disagree. Last year that happened to us and the result is we didn't compete. Now we are on a terrible 3 game funk and show signs of losinng our hard fought for advantage. Getting Pedey and jbj back would help but we also need to confront problems and be willing to make changes which improve our chances.

 

If a team continues to pitch, hit, and defend poorly in the playoff series, then yes, they are likely going to lose. What I'm saying is that the hot or cold streak is just as likely to end in the next series as it is to continue.

 

I am not too concerned about our 3 game funk yet. If the losing continues, then I will become concerned.

[Kimmi]

We're just damn lucky the Yanks lost Friday night, otherwise 2 in loss column. This is far from over, to win Division. Not counting chickens yet.

I was there for awhile, but came to my senses.

 

The season is far from over. I do not, by any means, think that we have the division, or even a playoff spot, wrapped up. Anything can still happen. That said, I would rather be in our shoes than in the Yankees shoes right now.

[Kimmi]

Some of these things are pretty easy to check out and you don't have to be a stat whiz, you just have to know how to use Baseball-Reference and have some free time. I think what you will find is that there's no consistent pattern whatsoever in how the World Series champs were playing at the end of the season.

 

This is correct, but at the same time, I would like to caution against using anecdotal evidence to draw definitive conclusions.

[Bellhorn04]

This is correct, but at the same time, I would like to caution against using anecdotal evidence to draw definitive conclusions.

 

I'm not really sure what you're saying.

[Kimmi]

I'm not really sure what you're saying.

 

I'm talking in general. In this case, the 'anecdotal evidence' supports the statistical evidence, or vice versa. That is often not the case.

[moonslav59]

There have been many times during this season where the attitude of this board has mostly been very much skeptical about our championship chances. There have also been time, like just 4 days ago, that the board has been mostly optimistic.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how so many posters seem to roller coaster back and forth between pessimism and optimism based on 2-3 game sample sizes.

 

When any team loses, of course, they look awful, lackluster, and several other negative adjectives. When the worst teams in the league win 5 out of 6, they look real good. There's a reason baseball plays 162 games in a season, and it's not just about money. It takes 162 games to separate the good from the bad as well as giving team's time to make adjustments and additions to improve by playoff time.

Despite all our injuries, I think we are better now than on opening day and as long as Pedey & JBJ return, we should be fine.

 

I don't see that Astros or Guardians as having better odds than us at making the WS.

 

 

[Spudboy]

Some of these things are pretty easy to check out and you don't have to be a stat whiz, you just have to know how to use Baseball-Reference and have some free time. I think what you will find is that there's no consistent pattern whatsoever in how the World Series champs were playing at the end of the season.

 

Yup.

 

You don't need to be a weather man to know which way the wind blows.

[Kimmi]

There have been many times during this season where the attitude of this board has mostly been very much skeptical about our championship chances. There have also been time, like just 4 days ago, that the board has been mostly optimistic.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how so many posters seem to roller coaster back and forth between pessimism and optimism based on 2-3 game sample sizes.

 

When any team loses, of course, they look awful, lackluster, and several other negative adjectives. When the worst teams in the league win 5 out of 6, they look real good. There's a reason baseball plays 162 games in a season, and it's not just about money. It takes 162 games to separate the good from the bad as well as giving team's time to make adjustments and additions to improve by playoff time.

Despite all our injuries, I think we are better now than on opening day and as long as Pedey & JBJ return, we should be fine.

 

I don't see that Astros or Guardians as having better odds than us at making the WS.

 

It's so easy to get caught up in the emotional roller coaster. Someone on here used the term 'recency bias', which is fitting. LOL

 

We do have to remember that it's a long season and to try not to overreact to small samples. I absolutely hate that we just got swept by the Os, but these things happen in baseball all the time. The bright side is that we are still 2.5 games up on the Yanks after losing 4 in a row.

[moonslav59]

The water is now up to our porch. We have about 4 inches between a dry and flooded interior.

 

15-30 inches expected over the next 4 days.

 

What a mess!

 

Nice to know Trump is already congratulating himself on a job well done with the Fed response.

 

No Feds here yet.

 

Just state and local people with boats.

[a700hitter]

The water is now up to our porch. We have about 4 inches between a dry and flooded interior.

 

15-30 inches expected over the next 4 days.

 

What a mess!

 

Nice to know Trump is already congratulating himself on a job well done with the Fed response.

 

No Feds here yet.

 

Just state and local people with boats.

15-30 more inches of rain is expected?