A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[BstHcpr]

And you know this because you visited Fangraphs today no doubt.

 

I'll post a trigger warning for you next time WAR is used.

[moonslav59]

I have a binder full of numbers to back up my position, but they are all in my head.

 

Too funny!

[BstHcpr]

You mean the guy who hasn't been over .735 for 5 years before this year's outlier season?

 

No thanks.

 

He's changed his swing, and hitting a lot more flyballs. That power is real.

[moonslav59]

He's changed his swing, and hitting a lot more flyballs. That power is real.

 

For now. Pitchers will adjust.

 

Maybe they already have:

 

.674 last 28 days

 

.594 last 7 days

 

No thanks.

[BstHcpr]

For now. Pitchers will adjust.

 

Maybe they already have:

 

.674 last 28 days

 

.594 last 7 days

 

No thanks.

 

Lol 7 days.

[moonslav59]

Lol 7 days.

 

LOL 4 months out of 34.

[BstHcpr]

LOL 4 months out of 34.

 

Is it possible that former top prospects can emerge as a good hitters later in their career? Would you pass on Justin Smoak too?

[BstHcpr]

For now. Pitchers will adjust.

 

Maybe they already have:

 

.674 last 28 days

 

.594 last 7 days

 

No thanks.

 

Maybe Duda is over the hill already:

 

.000 last 1 day.

[moonslav59]

Is it possible that former top prospects can emerge as a good hitters later in their career? Would you pass on Justin Smoak too?

 

Probably. (He's not a FA though.)

 

I'm not sure I want to bet on any one year wonder. At least Duda has shown steady growth over 4-5 years in a row, except for the injury year.

 

There really aren't many good choices on the market this winter.

 

I have no confidence in any of these guys.

 

Hosmer, the yo-yo, might be the best bet, but he'll want long years.

 

Moustakas will too.

 

Duda

Santana

Alonso

Morrison

Moreland

Napoli

A Lind

 

HRam at 1B and sign a DH?

 

JD Martinez (will get long years)

 

 

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You mean the guy who hasn't been over .735 for 5 years before this year's outlier season?

 

No thanks.

 

I'm not sold on Morrison--the one year wonder thing scares me.

 

I like Duda but I'm not sure if his defense is good enough and he has had health issues in the past (bad back).

 

Hosmer is a safer choice over Morrison and Duda but he will also cost a lot more money.

 

I would consider bringing Moreland back on a one year deal if I'm convinced that Chavis is my 1b of the future, but we don't know what the Red Sox think of Chavis.

[BstHcpr]

Either way, we don't need to spend a lot for a 1B. The whole team is basically back next year. We could even try Travis out. The cost for 1B at the deadline was peanuts. We could always trade for an upgrade.

[Nick]

Let's wait and see where Nunez ends up. Playing half of his games in Fenway should appeal to him somewhat. Obviously money will appeal to him lot more.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sold on Morrison--the one year wonder thing scares me.

 

I like Duda but I'm not sure if his defense is good enough and he has had health issues in the past (bad back).

 

Hosmer is a safer choice over Morrison and Duda but he will also cost a lot more money.

 

I would consider bringing Moreland back on a one year deal if I'm convinced that Chavis is my 1b of the future, but we don't know what the Red Sox think of Chavis.

 

Hosmer does seem like "the safest choice", but what does that tell you about the choices. The guy's OPS yo-yos 100 points nearly every season!

 

Plus, he'll want 4+ years and will likely get it. To me, that cancels out the "safest" argument.

 

I agree, I think we'll go as short as we can (1-2 years tops) in hopes that Chavis, Travis or Dalbec can win the job by 2019. However,

this option probably keeps us from getting a true difference maker to bat clean-up and extend our line-up.

 

Personally, I believed all along that we can win without being a top scoring offense, but looking at next year's roster, I think our biggest weakness is not having a big power bat who can also get on base at a decent rate. Sure, maybe Morrison will take a 1 year deal and repeat 2017's numbers. Maybe Moreland could hit like the first 3 months all year. Maybe Alonso or Duda will take a 1-2 year deal, but I would not sign Hosmer for 4+ years, just because he happens to be the "safest pick" in a group of mediocre 1Bmen.

 

Just because we have a big need, doesn't mean we have to sign the best of whoever is available that year. That looks to much like what we did with Pablo & HRam.

[moonslav59]

Either way, we don't need to spend a lot for a 1B. The whole team is basically back next year. We could even try Travis out. The cost for 1B at the deadline was peanuts. We could always trade for an upgrade.

 

Good point. As ,long as we save enough luxury tax space for the summer, we could probably do better via the trade route.

[sk7326]

2013 was good or even pretty good not "outstanding".

 

You cite his 112+ wRC+. That was 7th best on the team in 2013. Even Salty was better at 116. (He was barely our 3rd best OF'er in 2013 by xRC+: Nava 127, Vic 119, JE 112, Gomes 108.)

 

Yes, a .355 OBP is pretty good. It's not great for a lead off hitter. .355 placed him 13th out of 50 among fellow OF'ers that year. Nava was .385 and Vic was close at .351.

 

How is it "outstanding" to finish with the 39th best OF wRC+ out of 110 oF'ers with 300+ PAS in 2013? He placed 27th out of 50 OF'ers with 500+ PAs in 2013. You're choosing this as a season to justify greatness?

 

OK-ok, granted he had the 5th best OF WAR in 2013. He's much better than OPS or wRC+ indicate, but he wasn't worth close to that money based on his overall play from 2007-2013.

 

Of course the SBs and plus defense made him better than his wRC+ indicated, but he looked to be barely worth half of what the Yanks ended up paying him.

 

From 2008 to 2013 (6 seasons), the Sox had 56 instances with a player getting more than 300 PAs. Here's where Jacoby's seasons ranked:

 

#6 2011 (150) A fantastic season!

#31 2013 (112) Tied with Scutaro's 2011 season

#41 2009 (98) Worse than DMac's 2010 season

#47 2008 (91) Below two of Salty's seasons

#49 2012 (84) Worse than Lugo's 2008 season and barely better than CC's 2011 season (83) where everyone was screaming, "HORRIBLR SIGNING!".

 

Sorry, I wasn't buying it back then, and I'm not buying it now.

 

2007-2013 combined (Sample size: 26 players with 500+ PAs with the Sox)

 

143 Ortiz

140 Beltre

138 AGon

137 Youk

134 J Bay

132 Manny

128 Napoli

127 VMArt

120 Pedey

119 Vic

116 JD Drew

114 Nava

114 C Ross

109 Lowell

109 Ellsbury (The guy barely beat our Stephen freakin' Drew and Jarrod Salt-a-la-caca!

108 S Drew

103 Salty

 

I was almost as thrilled we didn't sign Ellsbury as I was when we traded for...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

 

 

Of course the SBs and plus defense made him better than his wRC+ indicated, but he looked to be barely worth half of what the Yanks ended up paying him.

 

I took that as a season which combined with his SB and plus CF defense was a 6-win player and downballot MVP level season. (just like Pedroia and Victorino were that season)

 

I think letting him go was sound since the odds of that being the norm were low.

 

I am a little surprised that his 2014 season - which all in all is fairly good but not great - has not been the norm.

[sk7326]

One thing to note is that 1B is shaping up to be a MASSIVE buyer's market. There just are not a lot of job openings - and it's a very easy position to fill, either internally or just converting somebody else. And Hosmer, while having some age, intangibles and upside - will be entering a market where the contending teams (or even pseudo-contenders) are not really going to have vacancies. A really good example of this is Encarnacion not being able to get anybody to bite on a THIRD year. (yes he was an older FA, but still, the Guardians got a steal)

 

Hosmer has had a good season - but the results have not been there that consistently. I could see someone offering 4 or 5 years due to age - but I'm not sure the money will be there. It will be an interesting choice.

 

The Red Sox could just throw Travis there and let it ride - and it would be a perfectly reasonable idea. Or they could look into OF types and rotate them with Ramirez in the field (Curtis Granderson?) ...

[Nick]

Good point. As ,long as we save enough luxury tax space for the summer, we could probably do better via the trade route.

 

I like the wait and see approach. It's possible that our hitters will return to 2016 level.

 

Signing Nunez would be a significant improvement. DH role can be shared between Devers, Nunez, Hanley, Travis, Pedroia, even Xander.

 

Having Nunez will allow us to shift players around.

 

Season is too long and you need flexibility for injuries.

 

I just don't want to commit to a long term deal unless you do a Chris Sale type deal, say someone like Votto.

 

With Wright coming back, our SP unit should be deeper. There's also hope for Carson Smith being 100% and Thornburg becoming available some point doing 2018. Workman should also be be fully recovered so our bullpen for at least another year should be okay (Kimbrel's option year).

[moonslav59]

I took that as a season which combined with his SB and plus CF defense was a 6-win player and downballot MVP level season. (just like Pedroia and Victorino were that season)

 

I think letting him go was sound since the odds of that being the norm were low.

 

I am a little surprised that his 2014 season - which all in all is fairly good but not great - has not been the norm.

 

Good response.

 

I realize I have been tougher on Ellsbury than most Sox fans. It wasn't always the case. Early on, I was one of his strongest supporters on "that other site".

 

I just saw two good to great seasons out of 6 as being what not to expect. Add to that, two seasons with significant injuries plus missing games here and there for little things ate away at my confidence in him going forward. That 2013 was his second best of his career (age 29-30). I just didn't buy it.

 

His 2009 season (.770 OPS and 70 SBs) was also good, so I guess you could say 3 out of 6 were good and 2 others were negatively impacted by injuries if you were trying to be optimistic, but I was not surprised by JE's quick decline with NY.

 

If you look at his worst OPS year since 2008, you'll see many were not with NY:

 

.485 BOS 2010 (injury/84 PAs)

.663 NYY 2015 (501 PAs)

.678 NYY 2017 (Not finished)

.682 BOS 2012 (injury/323 PAs)

.703 NYY 2016 (626 PAs)

.729 BOS 2008 (609 PAs)

That's 6 of 10 seasons below .730.

He has had 7 of 10 below .748.

 

His bad years in NY have barely eclipsed his bad years in Boston.

 

Could it be, he just never was as good as 2011 promised us he could be?

 

One more note: he had a pretty good OBP with the Sox, but his leadoff OBP was not as good as his overall BOS OBP.

 

It's .336 career BOS & NYY. .340 overall.

[sk7326]

Good response.

 

I realize I have been tougher on Ellsbury than most Sox fans. It wasn't always the case. Early on, I was one of his strongest supporters on "that other site".

 

I just saw two good to great seasons out of 6 as being what not to expect. Add to that, two seasons with significant injuries plus missing games here and there for little things ate away at my confidence in him going forward. That 2013 was his second best of his career (age 29-30). I just didn't buy it.

 

His 2009 season (.770 OPS and 70 SBs) was also good, so I guess you could say 3 out of 6 were good and 2 others were negatively impacted by injuries if you were trying to be optimistic, but I was not surprised by JE's quick decline with NY.

 

If you look at his worst OPS year since 2008, you'll see many were not with NY:

 

.485 BOS 2010 (injury/84 PAs)

.663 NYY 2015 (501 PAs)

.678 NYY 2017 (Not finished)

.682 BOS 2012 (injury/323 PAs)

.703 NYY 2016 (626 PAs)

.729 BOS 2008 (609 PAs)

That's 6 of 10 seasons below .730.

He has had 7 of 10 below .748.

 

His bad years in NY have barely eclipsed his bad years in Boston.

 

Could it be, he just never was as good as 2011 promised us he could be?

 

One more note: he had a pretty good OBP with the Sox, but his leadoff OBP was not as good as his overall BOS OBP.

 

It's .336 career BOS & NYY. .340 overall.

 

That is fair ... I thought that some of the on-base drop would be offset by a bit more power (see 2014 for a profile which seemed sustainable) ... not exactly a steal at $22M a year, but not terrible either. I thought the move made sense for the Yankees though the 7 years would always be hard to stomach.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I like the wait and see approach. It's possible that our hitters will return to 2016 level.

 

Signing Nunez would be a significant improvement. DH role can be shared between Devers, Nunez, Hanley, Travis, Pedroia, even Xander.

 

Having Nunez will allow us to shift players around.

 

Season is too long and you need flexibility for injuries.

 

I just don't want to commit to a long term deal unless you do a Chris Sale type deal, say someone like Votto.

 

With Wright coming back, our SP unit should be deeper. There's also hope for Carson Smith being 100% and Thornburg becoming available some point doing 2018. Workman should also be be fully recovered so our bullpen for at least another year should be okay (Kimbrel's option year).

 

Every team has injuries. But can you just imagine our chances had our pitching staff just sustained a normal amount of injuries? I mean the names on your list, which does not even include David Price, are guys counted on to fill big roles on this team.

[sk7326]

Suddenly the Sox are within 5 games of the Astros for best AL record - very tough 10 games ahead, but go figure.

[moonslav59]

Every team has injuries. But can you just imagine our chances had our pitching staff just sustained a normal amount of injuries? I mean the names on your list' date=' which does not even include David Price, are guys counted on to fill big roles on this team.[/quote']

 

Yes!

 

Wright was our 4th or 5th starter to begin the season. He had a fantastic first half in 2016.

 

We knew about our #2 RP'er Smith and Workman, but we also lost Thornburg (maybe our #3 RP'er).

 

We lost one of our most consistent RP'ers from 2015-2016 in Robbie Ross.

 

Kelly has also missed time.

 

We were 5-0 in Brian Johnson starts, and he got hurt.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Suddenly the Sox are within 5 games of the Astros for best AL record - very tough 10 games ahead, but go figure.

 

Talk about injuries to pitchers. The Astros have been clobbered.

[Kimmi]

I'm hopeful. I'm not sure he'd have ever gotten good enough on D to satisfy me, so maybe the injury hurried along what I always thought would happen anyways.

 

His defense was projected to be above average as a catcher. In that regard, Swihart was hurt by 2 things. One is that he was called into action before he was ready. Two is that he was never going to match up to Vazquez' defense. But many felt like he could be the better overall catcher between the two.

 

The FO really messed up with his development, IMO. I realize the ankle injury has changed to course of action, but prior to that, they needed to make up their minds about whether he was going to be a catcher or not.

[Kimmi]

It would be nice to add a rookie every year....

2017 Benitendi

2018 Devers

 

Is Travis still in our plans to start 1B for next year?

 

Yeah, it would be. I'm not sure that's still possible.

[Bellhorn04]

Talk about injuries to pitchers. The Astros have been clobbered.

 

The Yankees have had their share as well. Pineda gone and Tanaka and Sabathia both currently on the DL.

[S5Dewey]

The Yankees have had their share as well. Pineda gone and Tanaka and Sabathia both currently on the DL.

 

Cry me a river, baby!

[Bellhorn04]

Sox fans have no reason to cry about injuries to this point.

[sk7326]

The team has had some durability issues in the rotation ... but a remarkably good and stable bullpen, and excellent defense has ended up more than amply making up for it. Plus you have Sale and Porcello every 5th day which has made Farrell's bullpen organization a LOT easier (Sale by being awesome, Porcello by being ridiculously durable).

[moonslav59]

His defense was projected to be above average as a catcher. In that regard, Swihart was hurt by 2 things. One is that he was called into action before he was ready. Two is that he was never going to match up to Vazquez' defense. But many felt like he could be the better overall catcher between the two.

 

The FO really messed up with his development, IMO. I realize the ankle injury has changed to course of action, but prior to that, they needed to make up their minds about whether he was going to be a catcher or not.

 

"Defense" in terms of throwing out would be base stealers and blocking balls in the dirt, but I never had much confidence in the other areas not easily measured by stats:

 

Handling a staff

 

Pitch Framing

 

Pitch Calling