A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Well, the top brass not including Dombrowski.

 

Farrell is getting the memo from someone in the organization, for sure.

 

I doubt he got a memo saying bat Holt 2nd then first.

 

It must be okay with the top brass batting Betts first, but there are some good reasons for him being there.

 

There's no reason to bat Holt one or two when we have other better hitters.

[moonslav59]

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51).

 

All this despite....

 

Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons:

.805 2017

.812 2014

.820 2015

.897 2016

He's 92 points worse than last year.

 

Bogey having his worst year since 2014.

.776 2015

.802 2016

.740 2017

He's 62 points worse than last year

 

Bradley having his worst year since 2014.

.832 2015

.835 2016

.766 2017

He's 69 points worse than last year

 

HRam is 97 points worse than last year

 

Pedey is 34 points lower and injured.

 

Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS.

 

Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower.

 

Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points.

 

Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017.

 

Thornburg never pitched a pitch.

 

Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place.

 

Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective.

 

We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season.

 

With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months.

 

I'm very hopeful.

[SoxHop]

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51).

 

All this despite....

 

Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons:

.805 2017

.812 2014

.820 2015

.897 2016

He's 92 points worse than last year.

 

Bogey having his worst year since 2014.

.776 2015

.802 2016

.740 2017

He's 62 points worse than last year

 

Bradley having his worst year since 2014.

.832 2015

.835 2016

.766 2017

He's 69 points worse than last year

 

HRam is 97 points worse than last year

 

Pedey is 34 points lower and injured.

 

Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS.

 

Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower.

 

Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points.

 

Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017.

 

Thornburg never pitched a pitch.

 

Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place.

 

Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective.

 

We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season.

 

With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months.

 

I'm very hopeful.

 

E-Rod injured also....

 

Johnson - Another issue....

[a700hitter]

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51).

 

All this despite....

 

Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons:

.805 2017

.812 2014

.820 2015

.897 2016

He's 92 points worse than last year.

 

Bogey having his worst year since 2014.

.776 2015

.802 2016

.740 2017

He's 62 points worse than last year

 

Bradley having his worst year since 2014.

.832 2015

.835 2016

.766 2017

He's 69 points worse than last year

 

HRam is 97 points worse than last year

 

Pedey is 34 points lower and injured.

 

Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS.

 

Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower.

 

Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points.

 

Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017.

 

Thornburg never pitched a pitch.

 

Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place.

 

Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective.

 

We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season.

 

With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months.

 

I'm very hopeful.

I think the remainder of our schedule is tougher this year than last year. We play the Yankees 10 times in the next 3 weeks and they are only 2 games behind us in the loss column. We still have 5 games against the Guardians and we wrap up the season with 4 games against Houston.

 

If we hold serve with the Yankees in the upcoming 10 games, we should be okay for the division, but this race can change drastically in the next 3 weeks.

[moonslav59]

I think the remainder of our schedule is tougher this year than last year. We play the Yankees 10 times in the next 3 weeks and they are only 2 games behind us in the loss column. We still have 5 games against the Guardians and we wrap up the season with 4 games against Houston.

 

If we hold serve with the Yankees in the upcoming 10 games, we should be okay for the division, but this race can change drastically in the next 3 weeks.

 

I agree. Last year's team won 6 in a row starting August 12th and then won 4 out of 6.

 

We did end up playing the Yanks in 7 of our last 17 games. BAL & TOR were both 89-73 last year and we played them 13 of the last 23 games.

 

20 of our last 23 games were vs NYY, BAL & TOR, and though the Yanks were just 84-78 last year, they were pretty good going into SEPT (14-8 to end AUG and 7-2 to start SEPT).

 

Once we reach Sept 4th, I think we have it easier than 2016. Although we end up with 4 at home vs HOU, they will have clinched by then and may be resting starters. Before that last series we play 0 vs the NYY (after 9/4), 6 vs TBR, 6 vs TOR, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs OAK and 3 @ CIN.

 

The stretch from now to Sept 3 is very tough. It certainly helped to have a nice streak before this...

 

2 @ TBR

3 @ NYY

1 v CLE (make-up)

2 v StL

3 v NYY

4 @ CLE

3 v BAL

3 @ TOR

4 @ NYY

 

Man O Man!

 

 

[a700hitter]

I agree. Last year's team won 6 in a row starting August 12th and then won 4 out of 6.

 

We did end up playing the Yanks in 7 of our last 17 games. BAL & TOR were both 89-73 last year and we played them 13 of the last 23 games.

 

20 of our last 23 games were vs NYY, BAL & TOR, and though the Yanks were just 84-78 last year, they were pretty good going into SEPT (14-8 to end AUG and 7-2 to start SEPT).

 

Once we reach Sept 4th, I think we have it easier than 2016. Although we end up with 4 at home vs HOU, they will have clinched by then and may be resting starters. Before that last series we play 0 vs the NYY (after 9/4), 6 vs TBR, 6 vs TOR, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs OAK and 3 @ CIN.

 

The stretch from now to Sept 3 is very tough. It certainly helped to have a nice streak before this...

 

2 @ TBR

3 @ NYY

1 v CLE (make-up)

2 v StL

3 v NYY

4 @ CLE

3 v BAL

3 @ TOR

4 @ NYY

 

Man O Man!

 

 

The next 3 weeks are a make it or break it stretch. It would be nice to have Pedey and Hanley healthy so that the offense can hit on all cylinders. The September Schedule is quite a bit easier except for finishing up with 4 games against the Astros.

[BstHcpr]

The next 3 weeks are a make it or break it stretch. It would be nice to have Pedey and Hanley healthy so that the offense can hit on all cylinders. The September Schedule is quite a bit easier except for finishing up with 4 games against the Astros.

 

They may be resting their starters at that point.

[moonslav59]

The next 3 weeks are a make it or break it stretch. It would be nice to have Pedey and Hanley healthy so that the offense can hit on all cylinders. The September Schedule is quite a bit easier except for finishing up with 4 games against the Astros.

 

Take 5 of 6 vs the Yanks and coast.

[Bellhorn04]

Take 5 of 6 vs the Yanks and coast.

 

Tall order.

[oldtimer]

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51).

 

All this despite....

 

Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons:

.805 2017

.812 2014

.820 2015

.897 2016

He's 92 points worse than last year.

 

Bogey having his worst year since 2014.

.776 2015

.802 2016

.740 2017

He's 62 points worse than last year

 

Bradley having his worst year since 2014.

.832 2015

.835 2016

.766 2017

He's 69 points worse than last year

 

HRam is 97 points worse than last year

 

Pedey is 34 points lower and injured.

 

Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS.

 

Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower.

 

Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points.

 

Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017.

 

Thornburg never pitched a pitch.

 

Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place.

 

Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective.

 

We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season.

 

With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months.

 

I'm very hopeful.

 

I think your typification of Porcello stinking this year is unfair to him as he has gotten no where near the run support this year and has done an average job on the mound. I still prefer him on the mound to some of our lesser starters.

[a700hitter]

I think your typification of Porcello stinking this year is unfair to him as he has gotten no where near the run support this year and has done an average job on the mound. I still prefer him on the mound to some of our lesser starters.

His ERA is 4.72. The characterization of him stinking up the place is a accurate.

[jacksonianmarch]

This years Yankee team is a lot better than last and just got reinforments a week ago. They also have been pretty solid in the season series vs Boston this year too. I thought at the beginning of the year that this division was wrapped up for Boston. But this should be a dogfight for the division. We haven't had a real Yankees-Sox divisional dogfight since 2007. In the decade since, the sox were ether terrible, the Yankees mediocre, or another team in the mix at the top like TB. I love it, especially since I see us as arriving early and having much more long term trajectory

[illinoisredsox]

I think your typification of Porcello stinking this year is unfair to him as he has gotten no where near the run support this year and has done an average job on the mound. I still prefer him on the mound to some of our lesser starters.

 

His ERA is 4.72. The characterization of him stinking up the place is a accurate.

 

 

Stinking up the joint might be a bit harsh, but decidedly mediocre is not.

 

His W-L record, for what it's worth, could be better had he had better run support (especially early in the season). In games where he's allowed 2 or less runs, he is 1-3 (same as the team's record in those games. In games where he's allowed 3 runs, he is 1-5 (and the team is 2-5).

 

OTOH, he has benefitted from run support as well. He's had 12 games where he's given up 4 or more runs, which is where his ERA has ballooned. Amazingly, the team is 6-6 when that's happened (he is 3-6). Only twice this year has he failed to go at least 6 innings.

 

So in games where he's given he Sox a decent chance of winning (3 runs or less) they are 3-8. In games where he really has been bad, they are 6-6. Baseball is a strange game.

[Kimmi]

I doubt he got a memo saying bat Holt 2nd then first.

 

It must be okay with the top brass batting Betts first, but there are some good reasons for him being there.

 

There's no reason to bat Holt one or two when we have other better hitters.

 

No, that's not what I was trying to say. Farrell has gotten the memo on how the ideas of traditional line ups are changing. He has just not fully warmed up to the ideas yet.

 

I don't think the top brass presses him too much about how he sets the line up anyway. They give him the pertinent data, but I think they let him set it the way he wants to, which is the way it should be. Farrell knows the players better than the rest of us do.

[Kimmi]

The stretch from now to Sept 3 is very tough. It certainly helped to have a nice streak before this...

 

2 @ TBR

3 @ NYY

1 v CLE (make-up)

2 v StL

3 v NYY

4 @ CLE

3 v BAL

3 @ TOR

4 @ NYY

 

Man O Man!

 

 

Yeah, that looks like a tough stretch. Thankfully, we took care of business against Chicago like we needed to. One game at a time.

[Kimmi]

Tall order.

 

Very tall order, though I'd love to see that happen. If we can at least split with them, they don't gain any ground on us.

[Kimmi]

I think your typification of Porcello stinking this year is unfair to him as he has gotten no where near the run support this year and has done an average job on the mound. I still prefer him on the mound to some of our lesser starters.

 

Yeah, that's a little harsh. Until the last start, Porcello had been pretty good in his previous 7 starts.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, that's a little harsh. Until the last start, Porcello had been pretty good in his previous 7 starts.

 

He has an average Game Score of 49. He has 14 QS out of 23 GS. He has given up 26 HR's. The league leader is 28. We can always pick and choose a random 4-5 game sample and say he's been pretty good, but the reality is that's he's pitched like a back end of the rotation guy this year. He's not paid to be a back end of the rotation guy.

 

In the previous 7 starts, he still had a HR/9 of 1.70. He needs to cut that out if he wants to be successful. His FIP was also 4.63 for that stretch, so it seems like it was more out of good luck than good pitching.

[moonslav59]

I think your typification of Porcello stinking this year is unfair to him as he has gotten no where near the run support this year and has done an average job on the mound. I still prefer him on the mound to some of our lesser starters.

 

You're right. I was too harsh on Porcello. The post was within the context of what our returning players have given us as compared to last year, so I was bit too unfair towards Porcello.

[moonslav59]

No, that's not what I was trying to say. Farrell has gotten the memo on how the ideas of traditional line ups are changing. He has just not fully warmed up to the ideas yet. - Kimmi

 

Fair enough. I know line-up construction is not all that big of a deal, but some of our line-ups have been jokes.

 

 

I don't think the top brass presses him too much about how he sets the line up anyway. They give him the pertinent data, but I think they let him set it the way he wants to, which is the way it should be. Farrell knows the players better than the rest of us do.

 

Maybe too much. The whole "loyalty" thing seems to weigh heavily with JF (and Tito before him).

[Slasher9]

Lyons out at NESN due to domestic violence. Fantastic.

 

weird. i thought we were allowed to grab women by the p***** whether they like it or not....

[Slasher9]

In the decade since, the sox were ether terrible, the Yankees mediocre, or another team in the mix at the top like TB. I love it, especially since I see us as arriving early and having much more long term trajectory

 

lol. your trolling skills are pretty good and have many here hoodwinked. but i got you.

tell me more about 2016, 2013.

tell me more about the "trajectory".....

[illinoisredsox]

lol. your trolling skills are pretty good and have many here hoodwinked. but i got you.

tell me more about 2016, 2013.

tell me more about the "trajectory".....

 

You left off 2004, when they became the only MLB team ever to blow a 3.889 to 0 game lead in a playoff series.

[mvp 78]

weird. i thought we were allowed to grab women by the p***** whether they like it or not....

 

Maybe he thought he was using the stand your ground law?

[Slasher9]

You left off 2004, when they became the only MLB team ever to blow a 3.889 to 0 game lead in a playoff series.

 

lol. god that was the best year ever. the pro troller conveniently avoided 2004 buy stating "decade since 2007".

 

my 11U kids have played in 32 games this season. (New Jersey). every team now has a kid wearing 99. can't wait for that dude to crash and burn. reminds me of all the kids stroking Joba a decade ago. he was the face of "Yankees Universe". hahahaha. does that still exist? Yankees Universe? it was their attempt at Red Sox Nation. ahahahahaha. yankees really are pathetic.

[mvp 78]

This years Yankee team is a lot better than last and just got reinforments a week ago. They also have been pretty solid in the season series vs Boston this year too. I thought at the beginning of the year that this division was wrapped up for Boston. But this should be a dogfight for the division. We haven't had a real Yankees-Sox divisional dogfight since 2007. In the decade since, the sox were ether terrible, the Yankees mediocre, or another team in the mix at the top like TB. I love it, especially since I see us as arriving early and having much more long term trajectory

 

^ Thinks he plays for the Yankees now.

[moonslav59]

The Rays are tied in the race for the last wild card slot.

Looks like the AL East is again stronger than others. Don't forget the Mariners either. They recently picked up Alonso and others to strengthen themselves for the playoff run. Even the O's are close behind.

 

NYY 59-51

TBR 58-55 (-2.5 from NYY)

KCR 57-54 ---

SEA 57-56 -1

BAL 56-56 -1.5

MN 54-56 -2.5

LAA 55-58 -3

TEX 53-58 -4

TOR 52-59 -5

 

The NL is way different. The Cubs and Brewers are neck and neck for the division, but the loser will likely miss out on the playoffs as the NL West is ahead.

 

COL 64-48

AZ 63-48 (-0.5 from 1st WC slot)

MIL 59-55 -5.5

StL 56-56 -7.5

 

As you can see, we have 5 teams within 5 games of the the last WC team. The NL has zero within 5 games of AZ.

 

[Larry Cook]

The Rays are tied in the race for the last wild card slot.

Looks like the AL East is again stronger than others. Don't forget the Mariners either. They recently picked up Alonso and others to strengthen themselves for the playoff run. Even the O's are close behind.

 

NYY 59-51

TBR 58-55 (-2.5 from NYY)

KCR 57-54 ---

SEA 57-56 -1

BAL 56-56 -1.5

MN 54-56 -2.5

LAA 55-58 -3

TEX 53-58 -4

TOR 52-59 -5

 

The NL is way different. The Cubs and Brewers are neck and neck for the division, but the loser will likely miss out on the playoffs as the NL West is ahead.

 

COL 64-48

AZ 63-48 (-0.5 from 1st WC slot)

MIL 59-55 -5.5

StL 56-56 -7.5

 

As you can see, we have 5 teams within 5 games of the the last WC team. The NL has zero within 5 games of AZ.

 

 

With three really good teams in the al east and us having tons of games against the rays and yanks left, and the yanks having tons of games against us and Toronto left, I think we are in for a wild finish.

[oldtimer]

With three really good teams in the al east and us having tons of games against the rays and yanks left, and the yanks having tons of games against us and Toronto left, I think we are in for a wild finish.

 

Tonight the first step. Great Sox pitching and 12 hits but spread out. Having these aligned differently should produce more runs. The trick is to know who will hit and who won't. Not an easy thing. Pedroia will get back to himself but probably needs a few games. The yankees lost tonight so the two key teams dropped another game to the Sox. All good.

[moonslav59]

I'm just overwhelmed about having...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!