A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[BstHcpr]

By Evan Chronis / MLB.com | 7:26 PM ET +

BOSTON -- A bit of good news has finally come for Red Sox reliever Carson Smith, who is expected to start a Minor League rehab stint this weekend.

Smith threw 21 pitches to hitters on Wednesday, and will be checked out at Fenway on Thursday before the official decision is made if he'll begin his rehab stint.

 

$50 he's back on the DL again 30 days after he's activated.

[illinoisredsox]

$50 he's back on the DL again 30 days after he's activated.

 

I'd take that bet. He's still on it and he's basically got to go through this spring training, which is going to take some time. That means he won't be activated before at least the middle of August. If he makes it 2 weeks at that point, I'd win.

[a700hitter]

I'd take that bet. He's still on it and he's basically got to go through this spring training, which is going to take some time. That means he won't be activated before at least the middle of August. If he makes it 2 weeks at that point, I'd win.

Because they usually don't DL players after September 1st?

[harmony]

Because they usually don't DL players after September 1st?

Teams have little incentive to place a player on the disabled list after the rosters expand on September 1.

 

Last year Carlos Carrasco was out for the season before September 1 but the Guardians never placed the righthander on the disabled list.

[Larry Cook]

By Evan Chronis / MLB.com | 7:26 PM ET +

BOSTON -- A bit of good news has finally come for Red Sox reliever Carson Smith, who is expected to start a Minor League rehab stint this weekend.

Smith threw 21 pitches to hitters on Wednesday, and will be checked out at Fenway on Thursday before the official decision is made if he'll begin his rehab stint.

 

That is really good news. I hope he does not suffer any setbacks or reinsured himself. The more solid arms, the better.

[illinoisredsox]

Because they usually don't DL players after September 1st?

 

Yep but I was saving that information for later in the semester.

[moonslav59]

I don't think his play from the whole was a mirage at all. He made that play better than any one because he was able to make the throw with out stopping or planting and he got plenty on the throw. Other Shortstops, may have made that play in a more conventional manner appearing to be making it easier-- that was the mirage. Nomar made that play better than all of them in that he got the ball to first base quicker than anyone else. Other than that play, Nomars hands were never great and his throwing could be spotty, but I rank him as a better fielder than XB before his range was limited by injury/age/wear & tear.

 

He didn't get the ball to 1B faster. He often took one more step before the jump-turn-throw. Other SSs simply planted and threw is the same or less time.

 

He didn't get to more balls in the hole. His jumping and twirling just made the play look better than it really was.

 

It was a mirage.

[moonslav59]

If Carson Smith can give us anything this year, I'd be happy and surprised.

 

I'm pulling hard for him to succeed.

 

[a700hitter]

He didn't get the ball to 1B faster. He often took one more step before the jump-turn-throw. Other SSs simply planted and threw is the same or less time.

 

He didn't get to more balls in the hole. His jumping and twirling just made the play look better than it really was.

 

It was a mirage.

You need to get film of how he made that play early in his career. He did not jump making that play. He made that throw while still moving across his body. He made that throw while make the step that other Shortstops took to stop and plant themselves. I don't think your memory of how he made that play was misleading.

[moonslav59]

You need to get film of how he made that play early in his career. He did not jump making that play. He made that throw while still moving across his body. He made that throw while make the step that other Shortstops took to stop and plant themselves. I don't think your memory of how he made that play was misleading.

 

I watched the plays over and over. I've always been very keen on SS defense to the point of obsession.

 

He often jumped as he twirled but not every time. Sometimes, he did throw as he was still running, but throwing while running did not "save time".

 

He was amazingly accurate for throwing on the run- something that is a rare skill. Seeing something that was highly skillful distracted the viewer into thinking Nomar was making plays nobody else could make. In that way, it was a "mirage". He made easy or moderately hard plays look more difficult than they were.

 

Other SSs simply planted before taking that next running step or hop/jump to throw. Many SSs made more plays in the hole than Nomar without needing to look flashy.

 

Again, Nomar was not bad on defense at the start of his career, but he soon became average and then below average by around 2001.

 

[a700hitter]

I watched the plays over and over. I've always been very keen on SS defense to the point of obsession.

 

He often jumped as he twirled but not every time. Sometimes, he did throw as he was still running, but throwing while running did not "save time".

 

He was amazingly accurate for throwing on the run- something that is a rare skill. Seeing something that was highly skillful distracted the viewer into thinking Nomar was making plays nobody else could make. In that way, it was a "mirage". He made easy or moderately hard plays look more difficult than they were.

 

Other SSs simply planted before taking that next running step or hop/jump to throw. Many SSs made more plays in the hole than Nomar without needing to look flashy.

 

Again, Nomar was not bad on defense at the start of his career, but he soon became average and then below average by around 2001.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on how he made that play. He often was releasing the ball as he was taking the step that other Shortstops took to stop and plant, and he got an incredible amount of pace on the ball while contorting his body so unnaturally. It was not like the lollipop throws made by Jeter after his stop jump and turn.

[moonslav59]

We will have to agree to disagree on how he made that play. He often was releasing the ball as he was taking the step that other Shortstops took to stop and plant, and he got an incredible amount of pace on the ball while contorting his body so unnaturally. It was not like the lollipop throws made by Jeter after his stop jump and turn.

 

Nomar had a plus arm. I agree.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on the plant vs an extra step to twirl and throw while running.

 

I will say that I used to tape all the games, and I went through this argument many times with Sox fans who felt like Nomar was a great defensive SS. More often than not, after showing them the replays, they agreed that the extra step was not needed and that others made the same plays by planting and throwing. Sometimes, he took a quick mini step after gloving the ball, where his foot would come even to his other foot, then he'd take another step before twirling and throwing while on the run or turning in the air in a jump.

 

Other SSs sometime take that quick mini step to get the footing right, so their plant foot is set up for the throw, but to me and many others who watched the replays with me, Nomar took the extra twirling step at the same point where other SSs simply planted and threw.

 

I will say Nomar was better than Jeter, defensively, and I was surprised that ARod agreed to move to 3B for Jeter but not for Nomar when the initial trade was announced with the Red Sox.

 

The 2002-2004 Nomar was not the same as '97-'00 or '01. He had lost a step, and pretty much any observant fan could see it. Maybe ARod saw the same things I did.

 

[a700hitter]

Nomar had a plus arm. I agree.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on the plant vs an extra step to twirl and throw while running.

 

I will say that I used to tape all the games, and I went through this argument many times with Sox fans who felt like Nomar was a great defensive SS. More often than not, after showing them the replays, they agreed that the extra step was not needed and that others made the same plays by planting and throwing. Sometimes, he took a quick mini step after gloving the ball, where his foot would come even to his other foot, then he'd take another step before twirling and throwing while on the run or turning in the air in a jump.

 

Other SSs sometime take that quick mini step to get the footing right, so their plant foot is set up for the throw, but to me and many others who watched the replays with me, Nomar took the extra twirling step at the same point where other SSs simply planted and threw.

 

I will say Nomar was better than Jeter, defensively, and I was surprised that ARod agreed to move to 3B for Jeter but not for Nomar when the initial trade was announced with the Red Sox.

 

The 2002-2004 Nomar was not the same as '97-'00 or '01. He had lost a step, and pretty much any observant fan could see it. Maybe ARod saw the same things I did.

 

I think you just seized on Nomar's signature play as a pet peeve to show your friends how smart you were about baseball. I am sure there were times when Nomar took an extra step, but you know what, even the other top Shortstops often took the extra step to stop and plant if they were lunging for the ball. When Nomar executed the play the way he practiced it, there wasn't the extra step and it was an astounding defensive play.

[moonslav59]

I think you just seized on Nomar's signature play as a pet peeve to show your friends how smart you were about baseball. I am sure there were times when Nomar took an extra step, but you know what, even the other top Shortstops often took the extra step to stop and plant if they were lunging for the ball. When Nomar executed the play the way he practiced it, there wasn't the extra step and it was an astounding defensive play.

 

I think you fell for the mirage just like I did the at first.

 

I was fooled too. It not about thinking I was smarter than anyone else. I was wrong. I fell for it, too.

 

IMO, Nomar often took an necessary extra step while others planted and got the throw off quicker.

 

This is ancient history. I can't even find more than 2-3 defensive highlights on youtube. Let's agree to disagree and move on.

 

I think you're wrong. You think I'm wrong. Neither can ever prove anything at this point.

 

I don't think UZR/150 was even around before 2004.

[moonslav59]

Brentz with 2 Hrs tonight! That's 24 this year in just over 330 ABs.

 

(Castillo hit his 12th.)

 

Kelly pitched as hut out inning in AAA rehab.

 

Chavis 1 for 6, and inexplicably had no Hrs!

[moonslav59]

I keep writing off the Dodgers despite how they look on paper, but they've won something like 20 out of 23 and 40 out of 47.

 

We barely have one guy over .800. THe Dodgers have 4 over .900.

 

Their numbers are astounding:

 

.992 Turner

.959 Bellinger (21 years old)

.915 Seager (23)

.906 Taylor (26)

.823 Pederson (25)

.797 Puig (26)

.795 Grandal (28 year old catcher)

.745 Utley

(AGon on 60 day DL)

 

They added Darvish to this...

2.04 Kershaw (on DL)

2.38 Alex Wood (0.986 WHIP)

3.35 Rich Hill (1.179)

3.79 Kenta Maeda (1.147)

3.83 H-J Ryu (1.370)

3.84 B McCarthey (on DL)

 

Their pen:

 

1.33 Kenley Jenen 0.676

1.41 Pedro Baez 1.119

2.89 Josh Fields 1.018

 

 

[a700hitter]

 

This is ancient history. I can't even find more than 2-3 defensive highlights on youtube. Let's agree to disagree and move on.

 

I think you're wrong. You think I'm wrong. Neither can ever prove anything at this point.

 

I don't think UZR/150 was even around before 2004.

I suggested this a few post ago. As usual, you are a few steps behind me Moon. My throw is already safely in the first baseman's glove.

[moonslav59]

I suggested this a few post ago. As usual, you are a few steps behind me Moon. My throw is already safely in the first baseman's glove.

 

Well put.

 

Onward...

[BstHcpr]

Well put.

 

Onward...

 

I suggested this a few post ago. As usual, you are a few steps behind me Moon. My throw is already safely in the first baseman's glove.

 

Rekt

[moonslav59]

I know this thread is about 2017, but with the rain out tonight, I got to thinking about 2018.

 

My guess is we will reset the luxury tax this year and will be able to go over next year by enough to sign one significant FA. Chances are it will be a FA that can hit, and with Moreland and Young hitting free agency, the position most likely to be filled, IMO, would be 1B or DH. The DH could be someone who can play OF or 1B.

 

(* has team option)

 

Here's the list of 1Bmen:

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

OF

Dustin Ackley

Nori Aoki

Jose Bautista *

Carlos Beltran

Michael Brantley *

Jay Bruce

Melky Cabrera

Lorenzo Cain

Josh Collmenter

Carl Crawford

Coco Crisp

Rajai Davis

Jarrod Dyson

Andre Ethier *

Craig Gentry

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gonzalez

Curtis Granderson

Franklin Gutierrez

Matt Holliday

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Desmond Jennings

Hyun-Soo Kim

J.D. Martinez

Cameron Maybin

Andrew McCutchen *

Daniel Nava

Colby Rasmus

Ben Revere

Michael Saunders *

Seth Smith

Ichiro Suzuki

Justin Upton *

Melvin Upton

Jayson Werth

Chris B. Young

 

Big Names at Other Positions:

IF/OF Eduardo Nunez

SS Zach Cozart (move Bogey?)

3B Mike Moustakas (move Devers to 1B?)

C Alex Avila

C Jon Lucroy (having a bad year)

 

SP Yu Darvish

SP Alex Cobb

SP Johnny Cueto *

SP Lance Lynn

SP Michael Pineda

 

Possible in-house solutions:

1B (Moreland): Sam Travis, Michael Chavis (midseason)

DH (Moreland>HRam to 1B): Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz

4th OF (Young): Bryce Brentz

UT IF (Nunez): Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez, T-W Lin, Deven Marrero

Edited August 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

You need to get film of how he made that play early in his career. He did not jump making that play. He made that throw while still moving across his body. He made that throw while make the step that other Shortstops took to stop and plant themselves. I don't think your memory of how he made that play was misleading.

 

I remember seeing him do this in Pawtucket and then in Boston.

 

Of course we would not be talking about this if my Camry did not have good breaks.

[Nick]

I know this thread is about 2017, but with the rain out tonight, I got to thinking about 2018.

 

My guess is we will reset the luxury tax this year and will be able to go over next year by enough to sign one significant FA. Chances are it will be a FA that can hit, and with Moreland and Young hitting free agency, the position most likely to be filled, IMO, would be 1B or DH. The DH could be someone who can play OF or 1B.

 

(* has team option)

 

Here's the list of 1Bmen:

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

OF

Dustin Ackley

Nori Aoki

Jose Bautista *

Carlos Beltran

Michael Brantley *

Jay Bruce

Melky Cabrera

Lorenzo Cain

Josh Collmenter

Carl Crawford

Coco Crisp

Rajai Davis

Jarrod Dyson

Andre Ethier *

Craig Gentry

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gonzalez

Curtis Granderson

Franklin Gutierrez

Matt Holliday

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Desmond Jennings

Hyun-Soo Kim

J.D. Martinez

Cameron Maybin

Andrew McCutchen *

Daniel Nava

Colby Rasmus

Ben Revere

Michael Saunders *

Seth Smith

Ichiro Suzuki

Justin Upton *

Melvin Upton

Jayson Werth

Chris B. Young

 

Big Names at Other Positions:

IF/OF Eduardo Nunez

SS Zach Cozart (move Bogey?)

3B Mike Moustakas (move Devers to 1B?)

C Alex Avila

C Jon Lucroy (having a bad year)

 

SP Yu Darvish

SP Alex Cobb

SP Johnny Cueto *

SP Lance Lynn

SP Michael Pineda

 

Possible in-house solutions:

1B (Moreland): Sam Travis, Michael Chavis (midseason)

DH (Moreland>HRam to 1B): Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz

4th OF (Young): Bryce Brentz

UT IF (Nunez): Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez, T-W Lin, Deven Marrero

 

I'm opposed to moving Devers to 1B. Why? It's much easier to find 1B than a 3B.

 

We've pretty much had a black hole at 3B. We finally find someone that can plug the hole and first thing you want to do is to move him?

 

I would still go after Votto. Give them what they want. Travis, Swihart, Groome, and Beni. That should do it. Who cares about his age 34-37 years. He's similar to Beltre. He'll retain his power stroke.

 

Power bat is a critical component of team offense. We've taking it granted over the years with Papi and Manny and others in our lineup. I'd reconstruct the team. LF, RF, 1B, 3B adn DH should all have some power.

Edited August 3, 2017 by Nick

[mvp 78]

I'm opposed to moving Devers to 1B. Why? It's much easier to find 1B than a 3B.

 

Yup.

[harmony]

I know this thread is about 2017, but with the rain out tonight, I got to thinking about 2018.

 

My guess is we will reset the luxury tax this year and will be able to go over next year by enough to sign one significant FA. Chances are it will be a FA that can hit, and with Moreland and Young hitting free agency, the position most likely to be filled, IMO, would be 1B or DH. The DH could be someone who can play OF or 1B.

 

(* has team option)

 

Here's the list of 1Bmen:

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

No love for Danny Valencia (who has pretty much matched Mitch Moreland's production this year)?

[mvp 78]

No love for Danny Valencia (who has pretty much matched Mitch Moreland's production this year)?

 

Valencia has a worse bat and a much worse glove. Pass.

 

If Moreland's BABIP was 50 points higher like Valencia's, his stats would be smoked.

[Kimmi]

Well said, as always, Kimmi. The base-running outs that bug me the most are the bonehead ones that show a lack of fundamentals or lack of emphasis or focus on paying attention while on the bases (and in the field, I might add).

 

One thing I remember being said about Alex Cora when he played for us is that he never made a mental error. This stuck with me because it was very true, at least as far as I know. You can live with guys making an error now and then, or with guys being aggressive and getting thrown out on the bases if it's a close call, but the bonehead plays due to lack of focus or whatever are a different story. Especially if it happens frequently.

[Kimmi]

Brentz with 2 Hrs tonight! That's 24 this year in just over 330 ABs.

 

(Castillo hit his 12th.)

 

Kelly pitched as hut out inning in AAA rehab.

 

Chavis 1 for 6, and inexplicably had no Hrs!

 

Kelly is expected to be activated on Friday. I'm not holding my breath on Smith, but wouldn't it be nice if he can be the guy for the stretch run that we thought we were getting.

[Kimmi]

I keep writing off the Dodgers despite how they look on paper, but they've won something like 20 out of 23 and 40 out of 47.

 

The Dodgers look tough. They also have the best run differential in baseball.

[Kimmi]

Are we opposed to having Travis as our 1B for next year?

[Slasher9]

Teams have little incentive to place a player on the disabled list after the rosters expand on September 1.

 

Last year Carlos Carrasco was out for the season before September 1 but the Guardians never placed the righthander on the disabled list.

 

insurance$ perhaps?