Front office Decisions

[Larry Cook]

At least Votto has shown no signs of decline or instability like HRam and Pablo did before their signings. Other than 2014, Votto has been between .947 and 1.021 every year since 2009 (8 of 9 seasons).

 

He does turn 34 this September, so the future decline concern should be real. He will turn 40 his final year of his contract (2023). He also has a $7M buyout for 2024 (age 40-41) or a $20M option. His 6 to 7 year remaining deal seems like it's too long for a post-prime player, and we'd have to hope he doesn't turn into an Albert Pujols, but I think he's worth making a serious offer for. I'm not sure what it would take, so I'll hold off saying he'd be worth getting.

 

 

Giving him games as a dh should keep him healthy and producing longer than playing the field everyday in the national league,

[Kimmi]

People can defend dave and talk up the sale trade, but in summary he inherited a plane on the upswing and now it is a plane going down in flames.

 

I think I love you.

[Kimmi]

Have to let this season play out though.

 

Yup, plus the next several years. This season is far from over, and we are actually in very good shape, as bad as things might seem. As I've said before, if we win a World Series during our 'window', it will all be worth it.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Why would the Red Sox even go near J.Votto when they can sign 27 year old (turns 28 in Oct) E.Hosmer in the offseason?

[Kimmi]

The loss of Papi's offense obviously hurt, but it's more than that. In theory (as people kept telling me before the season), we could make up that production at various positions, but we were counting on best-case scenarios virtually across the board to do so: the B's had to repeat what they did in 2016, Hanley had to keep mashing like he did in the second half, Sandoval had to at least not be a disaster, etc. -- and by and large, those things have not happened, or have happened only for brief spurts. Having a near-guaranteed 30 HR, .900 OPS masher in the middle of your lineup gives the supporting cast a fair amount of margin for error, but post-Ortiz, we no longer have that.

 

Dombrowki thinking he didn't need a middle-of-the-order bat looks a lot like Cherington thinking he didn't need a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2015: no matter how well it could be rationalized on paper, when the actual games got underway, the absence was glaring from day one.

 

I don't think we were counting on best case scenarios. We led the league in runs scored by over 100 runs. We should have been been good offensively even without Papi. The problem is not in counting on best case scenarios, the problem is in our entire line up, except Pedroia, underperforming. It is reasonable to expect some guys not to perform to par, but it's also reasonable to expect others to overperform or at least meet expectations.

[Kimmi]

Was it really a lot to expect our younger players to repeat their 2016 season or even get better?

 

Even if we saw some decline from a couple youngsters, I think getting a full season from Beni should have been enough to at least expect a break even point with this group.

 

Expecting Pedey & HRam to repeat or improve could be viewed as wishful thinking, and expecting Pablo to do better than Shaw was certainly dreaming. I don't think the expected decline from Leon should have offset the loss of Hanigan and Holaday.

 

In short, I don't think anyone expected the offense to be as good, but the fact is just about everyone is doing worse than last year. I'm not sure DD should be blamed for that, but ultimately the GM and manager are responsible.

 

Picking up Sale should have come close to making up for losing Papi. Adding Thornburg and Moreland and getting Smith back could have tipped the balance, but that hasn't materialized.

 

Losing Wright hurt, too. Price and Porcello have been disappointing as well, but there's still time to make some magic this year.

 

 

 

Good post.

 

I don't think anyone predicted our offense to be as bad as it has been for most of the season.

[moonslav59]

Why would the Red Sox even go near J.Votto when they can sign 27 year old (turns 28 in Oct) E.Hosmer in the offseason?

 

Better idea.

[Kimmi]

Shaw trade was bad because the entire FO misread the Pablo situation. Say what you will, they were trying to recoup some of that $95M. What if Thornburg was pitching the way he did last year?

 

But Shaw was inadequate at 3B last year. I'll need to see what type of adjustments NL pitchers will make to Shaw before I'm convinced he is better than what the stats indicated in 2016.

 

Maybe the FO turned the page on Shaw too quickly, but he was really, really bad after the first 2 months of the season. I had no problem with the trade. In fact, I liked it. In hindsight, it's awful, but it wasn't awful when it occurred.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the FO turned the page on Shaw too quickly, but he was really, really bad after the first 2 months of the season. I had no problem with the trade. In fact, I liked it. In hindsight, it's awful, but it wasn't awful when it occurred.

 

Yes, and the fact that we are looking to acquire a top RP'er now shows that DD was right in his team need evaluation. We needed to fix our pen. The first half over performance by our pen has hid the issue up to now, but we needed a top set-up man then and still do now due to Thornburg's injury.

 

[Spudboy]

Why would the Red Sox even go near J.Votto when they can sign 27 year old (turns 28 in Oct) E.Hosmer in the offseason?

 

BOOM

 

That is what I would do.

 

f*** that cap.

 

Although I'd prefer a RHH power bat Hosmer would fit well.

[Larry Cook]

BOOM

 

That is what I would do.

 

f*** that cap.

 

Although I'd prefer a RHH power bat Hosmer would fit well.

 

Doesn't he bat left? The MLB site lists him as a left handed bat.

 

Hosmer's current ops is .874. Way higher than anything we currently have on the roster. If you don't think this is Hanley/Pablo part 2, and we can not get votto, then signing hosmer is an option.

 

he is not the leader in the clubhouse we desperately need, but he is an improvement over Moreland,

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I've heard Hosmer is a leader. He bats left-handed. Hosmer is a perfect fit in so many ways.

 

If they sign Hosmer, the Red Sox wouldn't have much more to do beyond that. Perhaps find a new manager....

 

1b Hosmer

2b Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

3b Devers

C Vazquez

LF Benintendi

CF Bradley

RF Betts

DH Hanley

 

Bench:

Brentz

Castillo

Swihart

Marrero (out of options, helps recruit E.Hosmer)

 

SP

Sale

Price

Porcello

Pomeranz

Rodriguez

Johnson (out of options)

Wright

 

BP

Kimbrel

Barnes

Kelly

Smith

Hembree

Workman

Scott

 

nontender candidates:

Thornburg

Holt

Ross

 

AAA depth (on 40 man roster)

M.Hernandez (one option remaining)

H.Velaquez

H.Owens (one option remaining)

T.Lin

B.Taylor

A.Maddox

K.Martin

J.Beeks

J.Callahan

 

The Red Sox could use a LH bench bat, a guy who will get some playing time at DH to keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting. Alternatively, the Red Sox could use Hanley's DH spot to occasionally rest some guys, and get Castillo & Marrero some playing time in the field, putting the regular starter at the DH spot.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

Why would the Red Sox even go near J.Votto when they can sign 27 year old (turns 28 in Oct) E.Hosmer in the offseason?

 

Have you looked at Hosmer's career? He's alternated above average and awful seasons for 5 years now. Hosmer has a career WAR of 7.7. Votto's WAR over the past season plus is over 8. Votto is the gold standard

[jacksonianmarch]

I've heard Hosmer is a leader. He bats left-handed. Hosmer is a perfect fit in so many ways.

 

If they sign Hosmer, the Red Sox wouldn't have much more to do beyond that. Perhaps find a new manager....

 

1b Hosmer

2b Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

3b Devers

C Vazquez

LF Benintendi

CF Bradley

RF Betts

DH Hanley

 

Bench:

Brentz

Castillo

Swihart

Marrero (out of options, helps recruit E.Hosmer)

 

SP

Sale

Price

Porcello

Pomeranz

Rodriguez

Johnson (out of options)

Wright

 

BP

Kimbrel

Barnes

Kelly

Smith

Hembree

Workman

Scott

 

nontender candidates:

Thornburg

Holt

Ross

 

AAA depth (on 40 man roster)

M.Hernandez (one option remaining)

H.Velaquez

H.Owens (one option remaining)

T.Lin

B.Taylor

A.Maddox

K.Martin

J.Beeks

J.Callahan

 

The Red Sox could use a LH bench bat, a guy who will get some playing time at DH to keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting. Alternatively, the Red Sox could use Hanley's DH spot to occasionally rest some guys, and get Castillo & Marrero some playing time in the field, putting the regular starter at the DH spot.

 

Hosmer has major bust potential, I'd be leery there. You'd need good Hosmer to stay and Devers to develop fast to have a top 5 offense.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Have you looked at Hosmer's career? He's alternated above average and awful seasons for 5 years now. Hosmer has a career WAR of 7.7. Votto's WAR over the past season plus is over 8. Votto is the gold standard

 

In 2 out of the last 3 years, Hosmer has had an OPS+ over 120. I agree that Votto has had a tremendous career, and I like Votto very much, but we are comparing a player who will be 28 at the start of the 2018 season (Hosmer) to a player who will be 34 at the start of the 2018 season (Votto). Moreover, the Red Sox can probably sign Hosmer without paying him 25 million each year for his age 36, 37, 38, and 39 seasons. The Votto contract is absurd--he is due 100 million from age 36 to 39.

 

Also, over the last 4 years, Votto has had only one year with a WAR above 4.3. His days of 6+ WARs are over.

[jacksonianmarch]

Votto is on pace for a WAR close to 6 this year.

[Bellhorn04]

I think I love you.

 

So now we're not even going to make it to the cliff.

[mvp 78]

Maybe the FO turned the page on Shaw too quickly, but he was really, really bad after the first 2 months of the season. I had no problem with the trade. In fact, I liked it. In hindsight, it's awful, but it wasn't awful when it occurred.

 

I don't remember anyone being upset when Shaw was traded. They maybe had concerns about the prospects given away, but I don't think anyone on here put up a stink when Shaw left town.

[mvp 78]

BOOM

 

That is what I would do.

 

f*** that cap.

 

Although I'd prefer a RHH power bat Hosmer would fit well.

 

You can f*** the cap in the offseason. This season, they need to stay under it.

[Kimmi]

In 2 out of the last 3 years, Hosmer has had an OPS+ over 120. I agree that Votto has had a tremendous career, and I like Votto very much, but we are comparing a player who will be 28 at the start of the 2018 season (Hosmer) to a player who will be 34 at the start of the 2018 season (Votto). Moreover, the Red Sox can probably sign Hosmer without paying him 25 million each year for his age 36, 37, 38, and 39 seasons. The Votto contract is absurd--he is due 100 million from age 36 to 39.

 

Also, over the last 4 years, Votto has had only one year with a WAR above 4.3. His days of 6+ WARs are over.

 

I'm not sure that I'm as high on Hosmer as you are (depends on the cost), but I would absolutely stay away from that Votto contract, and I'm a big Votto fan. That story would likely not end well at all.

[Kimmi]

So now we're not even going to make it to the cliff.

 

It remains to be seen what happens with this team this year and the next two years, but we should still be in great shape during our window. Nobody should be ruling the Sox out for this year.

[Spudboy]

You can f*** the cap in the offseason. This season, they need to stay under it.

 

Yes.

[Slasher9]

Looking to 2018, the sox cap space is limited.

 

In terms of long term contracts, you're at $132 mil (Pablo, Hanley, Sale, Pedroia, Price, Porcello, Kimbrel)

 

You'll have to go through arb again with Bogaerts, Bradley, Holt, Kelly, Thornburg, and Pomeranz. You'll have to go through it for the first time with Betts. Arb really looks at the prior two seasons, so even with Bogey struggling, his 2016 will weigh heavily. You're likely looking at $35 mil for those 6 guys.

 

If the cap is $195 and DD doesn't want to cross it, then you've got $32 mil to fill 12 spots on your roster. Otherwise known as no big deals to be made this offseason

 

thanks yankee frank. the LT is reset after this season. if we need to go over it next year that wont be a problem. but please continue to tell us how great the yankees are at building teams with a payroll of less than $200MM......

oh, and keep living in the 20th century with your "boston FO sux" nonsense. keep on trolling. you got erryone here fooled....well almost erryone....

[Slasher9]

The loss of Papi's offense obviously hurt, but it's more than that. In theory (as people kept telling me before the season), we could make up that production at various positions, but we were counting on best-case scenarios virtually across the board to do so: the B's had to repeat what they did in 2016, Hanley had to keep mashing like he did in the second half, Sandoval had to at least not be a disaster, etc. -- and by and large, those things have not happened, or have happened only for brief spurts. Having a near-guaranteed 30 HR, .900 OPS masher in the middle of your lineup gives the supporting cast a fair amount of margin for error, but post-Ortiz, we no longer have that.

 

Dombrowki thinking he didn't need a middle-of-the-order bat looks a lot like Cherington thinking he didn't need a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2015: no matter how well it could be rationalized on paper, when the actual games got underway, the absence was glaring from day one.

 

good post. but... (this isn't really towards you but some others that want to jump off a bridge because we dont have 400 HR's this season)......if we win our game today.....we will have 1 more win through July than we did in 2016 with the immortal David Ortiz in our lineup.

hitting HR's is fun and all.

Pitching = Parades.

[Slasher9]

This is what I've been harping on. I know he sox want to stay below the lux tax, but I don't get it. You've got a 3 year window. You can reset the tax then and deal off your expensive core to reset your farm. If you win now, you're immortal

 

no need bro. 2004 made the Boston Red Sox immortal. surely you remember....

also, we dont limit ourselves with "windows". we expect to contend for a postseason berth each season. and if we are fortunate enough to make the postseason than the crapshoot begins.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Votto is on pace for a WAR close to 6 this year.

 

You're right. I don't know where that last sentence came from--call it a brain fart. But my other point stands: Votto will make 100 million from ages 36 to 39. Disaster.

 

The Red Sox can sign Hosmer without paying 100 million for his worst seasons.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Many teams have won without power, without a good rotation and/or without scoring a lot of runs.

 

If the Sox had the stats the Royals had the years they went far, this board would be going bananas.

[Spudboy]

if if if if if if if if if

[mvp 78]

I'd trade this offense for the mid 80's cardinals for sure.

[Jack Flap]

good post. but... (this isn't really towards you but some others that want to jump off a bridge because we dont have 400 HR's this season)......if we win our game today.....we will have 1 more win through July than we did in 2016 with the immortal David Ortiz in our lineup.

hitting HR's is fun and all.

Pitching = Parades.

 

I hear you, Slash...and I'm not ready to jump off the bridge, either, for the record. Watching winnable games getting pissed away because of the inability to get a big hit just gets old, that's all.

 

This lineup has a very different look with Devers and Nunez so far, and if we can get the B's and Hanley going, we'll be just fine.