Red Sox Trade Deadline 2017 Thread

[sk7326]

Guys, your team is the prohibitive favorite to run away with the AL East with a team built for now. You upgrade your team and the future be damned. You have a 3 year window right now. At the end of that window, Price and Pedroia will be on the payroll as dead weight and your kids will become incredibly expensive. Bogaerts, Bradley and Sale hit the market after 2019. Betts after 2020. Your farm right now is depleted but still has one elite talent at the top capable of landing one more big prize and while you added a nice INTL class, they are 5 years away and with your team being good the next few years, your drafts wont land you much plug and play high end talent like Beni.

 

you are absolutely right here.

 

Now, this team has the 2nd best record in the AL and the 3rd best run differential while getting absolutely nothing from 3rd base. Now, I'm not actually sure making an overpay for Todd Frazier helps that - aside from the fact that he is a water based life form who breathes air ... which gives him a 50-50 shot at being an improvement over the current status. And that might be the case for most of the options ... given that, just tossing in Devers after the break just makes more sense, not just for future but present.

 

A month ago, I might have had another starter on the shopping list - and it still could help - but Fister is probably as good as any guy you'd get for that job. It'd be nice if Pomeranz (who has been good) were a little more innings-efficient.

[sk7326]

Lost in this discussion is the fact that your #1 hitter will get more at bats. While moving him to 4th might be advantageous in one regard, there is a countering disadvantage to moving him down the line up.

 

I think there was a study which showed that you want your best hitter batting 2nd ... as far as the optimal balance between number of at-bats, and run scoring opportunities ... but again, the differences are pretty small.

[jacksonianmarch]

You don't need a 5th starter. Fister is filling in for ERod. You can run away with this division without ERod. If you get him back, he will be in the running for a playoff rotation spot after Sale and Price. Not that big of a deal.

 

Your bridge to Kimbrel needs work. Smith might help, but with his setbacks coming back from TJS, you cannot count on him

 

You have the 16th best OPS at C, the 22nd best at 1b, 23rd at 2b (Pedey missed some time), the worst in baseball at 3b by a LOT, 17th in LF.

 

Catcher isn't getting improved unless you land Lucroy, and with the D behind the plate, you don't need to go nuts

1b has Moreland, and even though his offense isn't top of the line, it is good in the lineup and he plays good D

2b's dearth of production is due to Pedey's loss of power and his lost time. Not changing there.

LF has a rookie who is taking his lumps, you aren't moving from there.

3b must be upgraded. A playoff team cannot have a hole at that position as bad as your is.

 

I think DD may make a major splash. He might trade north of the border and nab Donaldson with Devers as the headline. He could go to Oakland and get Lowrie. He has to get SOMEONE. He also needs to get a reliable reliever. That shouldn't cost Devers, but someone who can help Kelly lock down 7 and 8

[S5Dewey]

 

It'd be nice if Pomeranz (who has been good) were a little more innings-efficient.

 

I wondered how long it would be before a comment like this surfaced as I was watching Pom leave the game yesterday. They guy went 6 innings and gave up one ER. That's an ERA of .333 in a quality start.

 

Ya. It would be nice if he could go 7 or even 8 innings but it may not be who he is. I'll take yesterday's 1 run in 6 innings every day without finding anything to gripe about.

[S5Dewey]

You don't need a 5th starter. Fister is filling in for ERod. You can run away with this division without ERod. If you get him back, he will be in the running for a playoff rotation spot after Sale and Price. Not that big of a deal.

 

Your bridge to Kimbrel needs work. Smith might help, but with his setbacks coming back from TJS, you cannot count on him

 

You have the 16th best OPS at C, the 22nd best at 1b, 23rd at 2b (Pedey missed some time), the worst in baseball at 3b by a LOT, 17th in LF.

 

Catcher isn't getting improved unless you land Lucroy, and with the D behind the plate, you don't need to go nuts

1b has Moreland, and even though his offense isn't top of the line, it is good in the lineup and he plays good D

2b's dearth of production is due to Pedey's loss of power and his lost time. Not changing there.

LF has a rookie who is taking his lumps, you aren't moving from there.

3b must be upgraded. A playoff team cannot have a hole at that position as bad as your is.

 

I think DD may make a major splash. He might trade north of the border and nab Donaldson with Devers as the headline. He could go to Oakland and get Lowrie. He has to get SOMEONE. He also needs to get a reliable reliever. That shouldn't cost Devers, but someone who can help Kelly lock down 7 and 8

 

Remarkably good post - from a Yankees fan!

 

There are a couple of issues I disagree with, however.

I believe our BP is good enough with Kimbrel, Kelly, and whomever as long as our starters can go 6 innings, and that's not an unreasonable expectation. Even "whomever" is pitching reasonably well in the 6th and Hembree et. al. are filling the bill in the earlier innings when necessary. We have to remember that we're not going to win every game but our middle relief and long relief look solid enough to get it done most of the time.

 

I certainly could support Donaldson if JH can, but since he's the guy with the purse strings I don't see it happening. I could even stomach a Devers for Donaldson trade since with Donaldson, Devers may be redundant.

 

Donaldson would put us over the LT limit and while maybe it's a coincidence, the new LT rule regarding forfeiting of draft picks seems to have gotten the FO's attention BIG TIME. So I don't see Donaldson in a Sox uni.

[sk7326]

I wondered how long it would be before a comment like this surfaced as I was watching Pom leave the game yesterday. They guy went 6 innings and gave up one ER. That's an ERA of .333 in a quality start.

 

Ya. It would be nice if he could go 7 or even 8 innings but it may not be who he is. I'll take yesterday's 1 run in 6 innings every day without finding anything to gripe about.

 

I said he was good.

[Nick]

I said he was good.

 

1/6 x 9/1 = 9/6 = 1.5 ERA

[jacksonianmarch]

Remarkably good post - from a Yankees fan!

 

There are a couple of issues I disagree with, however.

I believe our BP is good enough with Kimbrel, Kelly, and whomever as long as our starters can go 6 innings, and that's not an unreasonable expectation. Even "whomever" is pitching reasonably well in the 6th and Hembree et. al. are filling the bill in the earlier innings when necessary. We have to remember that we're not going to win every game but our middle relief and long relief look solid enough to get it done most of the time.

 

I certainly could support Donaldson if JH can, but since he's the guy with the purse strings I don't see it happening. I could even stomach a Devers for Donaldson trade since with Donaldson, Devers may be redundant.

 

Donaldson would put us over the LT limit and while maybe it's a coincidence, the new LT rule regarding forfeiting of draft picks seems to have gotten the FO's attention BIG TIME. So I don't see Donaldson in a Sox uni.

 

You guys don't need anything to make the PO's, but in the playoffs, if you don't have a true bridge, you will lose. Kelly is having a nice season with a VERY low BABIP and relying a ton on contact, which is more than most 100mph pitchers need. He can help, but if he is your answer to the bridge issue, then the playoffs will eat you alive. The blueprint lately has been flamethrowing strikeout artists coming in from the 6th inning on in the playoffs. Kelly is a flamethrower, but far from a K artist. You need a high velo, high K guy

[moonslav59]

I think DD may make a major splash. He might trade north of the border and nab Donaldson with Devers as the headline. He could go to Oakland and get Lowrie. He has to get SOMEONE. He also needs to get a reliable reliever. That shouldn't cost Devers, but someone who can help Kelly lock down 7 and 8.

 

At least Donaldson is under team control through 2018 and might agree to extend or re-sign. Keeping Donaldson beyond 2018 would almost certainly mean saying good bye to some other top player, so I'm not seeing a benefit beyond 2018. A two year window is better than one, but I'm a believer in Devers. I think he can contribute a lot in 2018 and maybe even later this year, but then we have a cheap fix for 3B for 5+ years not 1.3 years.

 

I hated the Espi-Pom trade, but at least Pom had several years of team control.

 

I'm hoping we can get an average 3Bman without losing a top 3 prospect or several 4-10 prospects.

[Nick]

I think DD may make a major splash. He might trade north of the border and nab Donaldson with Devers as the headline. He could go to Oakland and get Lowrie. He has to get SOMEONE. He also needs to get a reliable reliever. That shouldn't cost Devers, but someone who can help Kelly lock down 7 and 8.

 

At least Donaldson is under team control through 2018 and might agree to extend or re-sign. Keeping Donaldson beyond 2018 would almost certainly mean saying good bye to some other top player, so I'm not seeing a benefit beyond 2018. A two year window is better than one, but I'm a believer in Devers. I think he can contribute a lot in 2018 and maybe even later this year, but then we have a cheap fix for 3B for 5+ years not 1.3 years.

 

I hated the Espi-Pom trade, but at least Pom had several years of team control.

 

I'm hoping we can get an average 3Bman without losing a top 3 prospect or several 4-10 prospects.

 

I don't see us giving up Devers for Donaldson.

[moonslav59]

You guys don't need anything to make the PO's, but in the playoffs, if you don't have a true bridge, you will lose. Kelly is having a nice season with a VERY low BABIP and relying a ton on contact, which is more than most 100mph pitchers need. He can help, but if he is your answer to the bridge issue, then the playoffs will eat you alive. The blueprint lately has been flamethrowing strikeout artists coming in from the 6th inning on in the playoffs. Kelly is a flamethrower, but far from a K artist. You need a high velo, high K guy

 

I've been kind of drinking the Kool-Aid with our pen's success this year, but I think you are right. While Kelly is not Andrew Miller, he might be good enough to bridge us to Kimbrel, but my fear is more with the 6th and 7th innings, especially when you have Pom rarely going past 5 or 6 innings.

 

Great RP'er are costly nowadays, however, and I'm not sure we can afford one.

 

Your point is well taken about the "closing window" and the idea that we can't afford NOT to go for it now.

[moonslav59]

I don't see us giving up Devers for Donaldson.

 

I hope not, but with DD at the helm, one never knows...

[Bellhorn04]

Take a look at the Cubs bullpen after Chapman last year and see how ours compares.

[sk7326]

1/6 x 9/1 = 9/6 = 1.5 ERA

 

ERA is nice - and super important ... but durability in starting is also very important ... Pomeranz has been very good - even if he has not gotten into the 8th as often as you'd like.

 

The best example of my point is Dice-K's 2008 where the numbers were good but he was pitching so few innings per start that he was forcing the bullpen to lift a lot considering.

[sk7326]

Take a look at the Cubs bullpen after Chapman last year and see how ours compares.

 

Can never have too many relief arms - that's always on the menu.

[Jack Flap]

Donaldson would be interesting, but the Jays are only 4.5 back in the wild card race...and even then, they'd have to be willing to trade him within the division, and I doubt they'd give us the same sort of discount Beane gave them.

 

I like Devers as our long-term solution and there are precious few scenarios in which I could justify trading him at this point.

[Nick]

ERA is nice - and super important ... but durability in starting is also very important ... Pomeranz has been very good - even if he has not gotten into the 8th as often as you'd like.

 

The best example of my point is Dice-K's 2008 where the numbers were good but he was pitching so few innings per start that he was forcing the bullpen to lift a lot considering.

 

i was simply correcting a poster that stated 1 earned run in 6 innings equated to 3.33 ERA.

[moonslav59]

Take a look at the Cubs bullpen after Chapman last year and see how ours compares.

 

Take a look at the team that swept us last year. Their pen was 10 deep.

[Jack Flap]

Dombrowski paying July prices for a late-inning reliever scares the hell out of me. Another under-the-radar Ziegler type pickup would be nice, but I don't know if we could get that lucky again.

[moonslav59]

Take a look at the team that swept us last year. Their pen was 10 deep.

 

Here's how deep it was last year...

 

PAs against OPS against

275 Bryan Shaw .686

269 Dan Otero .526

264 Cody Allen .584

That's a nice top 3 before adding Andrew Miller

103 Andrew Miller .433

 

Miller essentially replaced these two:

219 Zach McAllister .731

189 Jeff Manship .750

 

Then there were these guys as depth (RP'er numbers only):

90 Tommy Hunter .668

82 Joba Chamberlain .616

72 Trevor Bauer .664

70 Kyle crockett .716

49 Mike Clevinger .515

20 Ryan Merritt .350

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Rondon, Strop and Montgomery were pretty good in that pen as well as Trevor Cahill. The Cubs pen was unexpectedly deep but without a relief ace until they got Chap

[d-money]

No way you trade Devers for Donaldson. Donaldson's already in his 30s. I don't think you would have to give up high prospects to get him.

[cp176]

I think there was a study which showed that you want your best hitter batting 2nd ... as far as the optimal balance between number of at-bats, and run scoring opportunities ... but again, the differences are pretty small.

 

This i find interesting. I would not continue to post with respect to batting order but when I am told (as I have been now) that you want your best hitter either leading off, hitting second, or fourth but not third??? really! Sounds more to me like someone again wanting to argue just for the sake of arguing. If I really am alone with respect to that based upon how I determine who my best hitter is, I would bat him third, I am ok with that. Just another old antiquated view that must be wrong. He can't hit third - but 1,2 ,4 is ok! I'm just an old fool. I like your post and I really don't care where Betts hits in the lineup. I have faith in the red sox management and coaching staff. I would still bat Mookie third. I am a proud traditionalist.

[S5Dewey]

This i find interesting. I would not continue to post with respect to batting order but when I am told (as I have been now) that you want your best hitter either leading off, hitting second, or fourth but not third??? really! Sounds more to me like someone again wanting to argue just for the sake of arguing. If I really am alone with respect to that based upon how I determine who my best hitter is, I would bat him third, I am ok with that. Just another old antiquated view that must be wrong. He can't hit third - but 1,2 ,4 is ok! I'm just an old fool. I like your post and I really don't care where Betts hits in the lineup. I have faith in the red sox management and coaching staff. I would still bat Mookie third. I am a proud traditionalist.

 

I think this may revolve around what a person's definition of "best" is. During the years when "my" teams were the most successful we had a guy who didn't have the highest average on the team but when he got a hit it was usually an XBH, and he drove in a lot of runs. I've often told people that 'Xxxx' is the best #3 hitter I ever played with, but he wasn't the best hitter on the team.

[sk7326]

This i find interesting. I would not continue to post with respect to batting order but when I am told (as I have been now) that you want your best hitter either leading off, hitting second, or fourth but not third??? really! Sounds more to me like someone again wanting to argue just for the sake of arguing. If I really am alone with respect to that based upon how I determine who my best hitter is, I would bat him third, I am ok with that. Just another old antiquated view that must be wrong. He can't hit third - but 1,2 ,4 is ok! I'm just an old fool. I like your post and I really don't care where Betts hits in the lineup. I have faith in the red sox management and coaching staff. I would still bat Mookie third. I am a proud traditionalist.

 

it's again a trade off - getting on with dudes on base vs opportunities to get the hitter up ... you'd like to maximize both. Again the differences are small - but every edge helps.

[cp176]

it's again a trade off - getting on with dudes on base vs opportunities to get the hitter up ... you'd like to maximize both. Again the differences are small - but every edge helps.

 

I agree - you just have to look at what you have for personnel and how they are performing.

[moonslav59]

No way you trade Devers for Donaldson. Donaldson's already in his 30s. I don't think you would have to give up high prospects to get him.

 

You would because he's not a 2 month rental. He's under team control for another year beyond this year.

[Hugh2]

No way you trade Devers for Donaldson. Donaldson's already in his 30s. I don't think you would have to give up high prospects to get him.

 

A trade for Donaldson starts with Devers plus.

[moonslav59]

A trade for Donaldson starts with Devers plus.

 

Agreed, and I'd say no.

 

I don't think Groome, Travis and Beeks would be enough.

 

2 playoff cycles of Donaldson has high value.

 

Top WAR since 2015:

 

21.6 Trout

17.6 Bryant

17.5 Donaldson

16.5 Harper

16.1 Votto

16.0 Goldscmidt

16.0 Betts

 

(Donaldson also has the 4th best UZR/150 at 3B since 2015.)

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Then why does everyone.. .including Kimmie... keep wanting to tinker with the lineup in spite of the fact that the Sox are currently on an offensive tear?? !!

 

I have a phrase for it.. .some people can't stand prosperity!

 

I am not trying to tinker with the line up. My line up posts are usually in response to someone else trying to tinker with the line up. The only line up changes I suggest are moving a player down in the order who is struggling and seems to be pressing, just to take some pressure off.

 

That said, line up changes do make some difference, just not very much. If you're going to tinker with the line up, ignoring any human factors, then you should go with what the numbers tell you, IMO.