Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[moonslav59]

My family used to put up our Chrsitmas tree on the 24th of December, but it stayed up until late January, when all the needles were falling off.

 

(We also put real candles on the tree- a German tradition.)

[mvp 78]

When does it come off?

 

12 days after Christmas (Jan 6).

[mvp 78]

My family used to put up our Chrsitmas tree on the 24th of December, but it stayed up until late January, when all the needles were falling off.

 

(We also put real candles on the tree- a German tradition.)

 

Wow. Some traditions have it that if you don't take down the decorations by the 12th day after Christmas, that you have to leave them up all year. I think my neighbor inadvertently did that with his lawn decorations a few years ago.

[moonslav59]

Wow. Some traditions have it that if you don't take down the decorations by the 12th day after Christmas, that you have to leave them up all year. I think my neighbor inadvertently did that with his lawn decorations a few years ago.

 

I always stood by with the fire extinguisher-- terrified the house would burn down.

[Kimmi]

To me, you know a flub is going to happen. I know there is more to the equation than just avoiding a JMart defensive flub, but when Pedey gets back, and Nunez is looking for ways to get PAs, I'm not sure if the equation indicates as much OF time for JMart.

 

Now, if Moreland & HRam keep smacking the ball around like they are now, then playing JMart in the OF here and there might still make some sense. The only way Moreland & HRam can play at the same time is for JMart to play OF or rest on the bench.

 

We'll have to wait and see, I guess. I don't see Nunez getting that much playing time in the OF.

 

Cora just seems really bent on resting players regularly and he considers JD our 4th outfielder.

[Kimmi]

You are of course entitled to your opinion but let me get this straight - correct me if I'm wrong. Past statistics say that he has sucked defensively - Now even though he has not made an error in the field this year , he still sucks out there only now it is because he looks bad. is that what you are telling me? This emphasizes the importance of what my eyes tell me. I'm a little nervous when a ball is hit toward him as well but those past stats don't have much meaning to me. He is making plays while looking bad doing it! I can live with that. To date the stats don't support the claim that he sucks out there. No one claims he is a plus defensively by the way.

 

You are trying way too hard to discredit defensive stats.

 

The point here is that the stats about JD's defense were right. Before he played a single game for Boston, we already knew that JD was not a good defensive outfielder. Based on stats only.

[cp176]

You are trying way too hard to discredit defensive stats.

 

The point here is that the stats about JD's defense were right. Before he played a single game for Boston, we already knew that JD was not a good defensive outfielder. Based on stats only.

 

My personal preference is and will always be to watch players play before I draw conclusions about them regardless of what statistics might say about their abilities.

[moonslav59]

We'll have to wait and see, I guess. I don't see Nunez getting that much playing time in the OF.

 

Cora just seems really bent on resting players regularly and he considers JD our 4th outfielder.

 

Right now, JMart as the 4th OF'er makes the most sense. Once Pedey squeezes Nunez out of a position, we will see.

 

It's really a choice between Moreland/HRam and Nunez. With Moreland at 1B, HRam at DH, and JMart in the OF, Nunez can only play when our SS, 3Bman or 2Bman needs a rest. That's only maybe once a week. I don't see that happening.

 

Assuming Swihart and Holt/Lin get zero PAs after Pedey comes back (doubtful), maybe we can see something like this...

 

Vaz and Leon continue sharing catcher duty.

 

1B: HRam & Moreland

DH: JMart & HRam/Nunez

2B: Pedey & Nunez

3B: Devers & Nunez

SS: Bogey & Nunez

LF: Beni & Nunez/JMart

CF: JBJ & Beni

RF: Betts & JBJ

 

10 players for 8 slots in the order. If we spread it our exactly evenly, whci i doubt we even try to do, it comes out to everyone sitting once every 5 games. Let's assume we rest Betts, Devers, JMart, Beni and Bogey once every 10 games (16 games a year). That leaves the other 5 guys (HRam, Moreland, Pedey, Nunez & JBJ) needing to rest 15 days every 10 games. That's 3 days off every 10 days. It doesn't seem realistic to me. My guess is one or two guys will be cut way back, or we might trade someone. Maybe someone is slumping badly or gets hurt and makes the choice easier. Is Nunez the worst hitter of the 10? Moreland? JBJ? Moreland & JBJ are plus defenders, but does that mean they play more than Nunez?

 

Pedey might need more rest than others but how much?

 

Things could get tricky.

 

[moonslav59]

My personal preference is and will always be to watch players play before I draw conclusions about them regardless of what statistics might say about their abilities.

 

Watching JMart play confirms my suspicions.

[Station 13]

Right now, JMart as the 4th OF'er makes the most sense. Once Pedey squeezes Nunez out of a position, we will see.

 

It's really a choice between Moreland/HRam and Nunez. With Moreland at 1B, HRam at DH, and JMart in the OF, Nunez can only play when our SS, 3Bman or 2Bman needs a rest. That's only maybe once a week. I don't see that happening.

 

Assuming Swihart and Holt/Lin get zero PAs after Pedey comes back (doubtful), maybe we can see something like this...

 

Vaz and Leon continue sharing catcher duty.

 

1B: HRam & Moreland

DH: JMart & HRam/Nunez

2B: Pedey & Nunez

3B: Devers & Nunez

SS: Bogey & Nunez

LF: Beni & Nunez/JMart

CF: JBJ & Beni

RF: Betts & JBJ

 

10 players for 8 slots in the order. If we spread it our exactly evenly, whci i doubt we even try to do, it comes out to everyone sitting once every 5 games. Let's assume we rest Betts, Devers, JMart, Beni and Bogey once every 10 games (16 games a year). That leaves the other 5 guys (HRam, Moreland, Pedey, Nunez & JBJ) needing to rest 15 days every 10 games. That's 3 days off every 10 days. It doesn't seem realistic to me. My guess is one or two guys will be cut way back, or we might trade someone. Maybe someone is slumping badly or gets hurt and makes the choice easier. Is Nunez the worst hitter of the 10? Moreland? JBJ? Moreland & JBJ are plus defenders, but does that mean they play more than Nunez?

 

Pedey might need more rest than others but how much?

 

Things could get tricky.

 

 

Moreland is off to a hot start. I want to see him getting more playing time. It would be difficult to juggle him in, with Hanley either DH/1B(he always fade into the season). JBJ could sit out a few too to let JD play LF (away from Fenway) to get Moreland in the lineup.

 

Pedroia is not an everyday player at this stage. If he sits out, I would go for defense and let Lin play.

Edited April 24, 2018 by Station 13

[Slasher9]

Moreland is off to a hot start. I want to see him getting more playing time. It would be difficult to juggle him in, with Hanley either DH/1B(he always fade into the season). .

Who fade into the season? Are you talking about mitchie poo or hanram?

[Station 13]

Who fade into the season? Are you talking about mitchie poo or hanram?

 

Hanram.

[Natick to NC]

Moreland is off to a hot start. I want to see him getting more playing time. It would be difficult to juggle him in, with Hanley either DH/1B(he always fade into the season). JBJ could sit out a few too to let JD play LF (away from Fenway) to get Moreland in the lineup.

 

Pedroia is not an everyday player at this stage. If he sits out, I would go for defense and let Lin play.

 

Just a thought but maybe Mitch does better as a bench player ? I like the guy and yes he's had some great moments but maybe they came because he's coming off the pine ? ...I personally love Hanley at 1b guess I'm The exception ....I hate Nunez D but his bat over Lin gets the nod for me at second ..love Lins glove and would love to see him get the D stopper job there in late innings ...kids got real range .

Edited April 24, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

Moreland is off to a hot start. I want to see him getting more playing time. It would be difficult to juggle him in, with Hanley either DH/1B(he always fade into the season). JBJ could sit out a few too to let JD play LF (away from Fenway) to get Moreland in the lineup.

 

Pedroia is not an everyday player at this stage. If he sits out, I would go for defense and let Lin play.

 

Under this plan, Nunez hardly ever plays.

[cp176]

Watching JMart play confirms my suspicions.

 

What I see is an elite defensive outfield when Benintendi, JBJ, and Betts are out there. I'm willing to bet that there are a lot of outfielders who would look a little awkward playing beside any of those guys. That is what I see. Based on the metrics that I have seen (yes I looked at them), I would expect that JD would look a lot worse out there than he has so far.

Edited April 24, 2018 by cp176

[jacksonianmarch]

JbJ isn’t being dealt this year anyway. This is a definite possibility this offseason, though

[Slasher9]

Hanram.

 

really????

LOL. you ever look at his splits?????

his best hitting month is september. his second best hitting month is august. his third best hitting month is july.

the dude literally gets BETTER as the season goes on. like...the opposite of "fade".....

[moonslav59]

What I see is an elite defensive outfield when Benintendi, JBJ, and Betts are out there. I'm willing to bet that there are a lot of outfielders who would look a little awkward playing beside any of those guys. That is what I see. Based on the metrics that I have seen (yes I looked at them), I would expect that JD would look a lot worse out there than he has so far.

 

I think I'm able to separate the comps between JMart and our other three OF'ers. JMart is not the worst I've seen, and the sample size is still small, but he has looked very shaky to me.

 

Ultimately, when you go to make the decision to play JMart in the OF, it does become a comp with the guy you're removing and the other bat you get into the line-up vs the guy you bumped out (most likely it would be Moreland vs JBJ or Beni).

 

JMart's career OF numbers look bad, but his last 2+ seasons have looked horrific.

 

Out of 117 MLB OF'ers with 900 innings in the OF, JMart places...

 

5th worst in UZR/150 at -15.1

 

Tied for 5th worst in DRS at -25.

 

 

If you move the sample size to 77 OF'ers with 1500+ innings, JMart is worst in UZR/150. I don't disagree with wanting to see for yourself before passing judgement, but when I guy scores that lowly for 2 plus seasons, I'm pretty much convinced he's awful. Nothing he has done, so far, despite the no errors charged to him, has convinced me otherwise.

 

Again, I'm okay with playing him in the OF, if it makes him happy and improves the offense by close to an equal amount of the choice hurting our defense, but I still feel that Pedey's return and Nunez then being thrown into the OF mix (and he's a better defender out there than JMart) makes me think the equation will be changed significantly. Maybe that is part of the reason why Cora is going out of his way to get JD OF looks early in the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

JD isn’t a DH in mindset, yet. Throwing him in the OF every now and then definitely helps his psyche and allows other players some rest. Cora definitely subscribed to the theory of ensuring all players, not just the fragile or old, need scheduled rest. And if JD is going to give his best defensive efforts out there, it won’t be once every 10 games, he’ll have to see the field more often.

 

Either way, your squad’s OF defense is impressive. The question becomes, next year, when Pom walks and you tie up Kimbrel with a big contract, does JBJ get moved for an arm to slot into your rotation.

[cp176]

I think I'm able to separate the comps between JMart and our other three OF'ers. JMart is not the worst I've seen, and the sample size is still small, but he has looked very shaky to me.

 

Ultimately, when you go to make the decision to play JMart in the OF, it does become a comp with the guy you're removing and the other bat you get into the line-up vs the guy you bumped out (most likely it would be Moreland vs JBJ or Beni).

 

JMart's career OF numbers look bad, but his last 2+ seasons have looked horrific.

 

Out of 117 MLB OF'ers with 900 innings in the OF, JMart places...

 

5th worst in UZR/150 at -15.1

 

Tied for 5th worst in DRS at -25.

 

 

If you move the sample size to 77 OF'ers with 1500+ innings, JMart is worst in UZR/150. I don't disagree with wanting to see for yourself before passing judgement, but when I guy scores that lowly for 2 plus seasons, I'm pretty much convinced he's awful. Nothing he has done, so far, despite the no errors charged to him, has convinced me otherwise.

 

Again, I'm okay with playing him in the OF, if it makes him happy and improves the offense by close to an equal amount of the choice hurting our defense, but I still feel that Pedey's return and Nunez then being thrown into the OF mix (and he's a better defender out there than JMart) makes me think the equation will be changed significantly. Maybe that is part of the reason why Cora is going out of his way to get JD OF looks early in the season.

 

Man Moon that compilation of statistics is just overwhelming. Guess he must just be that bad out there. I'm not doubting what they tell but I'm still going to judge how good or bad he is defensively based on what I see him do. I'm probably the only person on this forum who finds the massive amount of statistical data available to be overwhelming. Paralysis by analysis has always been a problem for me. Personally, I need to keep things simple and just enjoy the game. Don't get me wrong, I like statistics but I would much rather judge our guys by what I see as opposed to what the past might say about them. I am just delighted that we have this guy and however Cora decides to use him is ok by me.

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem is, going by lack of objective data leads to bad team building. Maybe he doesn’t make errors, but maybe he’s slow on beaks back, to his left or right. Maybe his range is small. Or, to JDs credit he admitted this, he gets afraid when he nears the wall after breaking his arm a few years ago. These things may not be apparent with the eye test, but a double hit and a double prevented are just as valuable.

[S5Dewey]

The problem is, going by lack of objective data leads to bad team building. Maybe he doesn’t make errors, but maybe he’s slow on beaks back, to his left or right. Maybe his range is small. Or, to JDs credit he admitted this, he gets afraid when he nears the wall after breaking his arm a few years ago. These things may not be apparent with the eye test, but a double hit and a double prevented are just as valuable.

 

Now there's an interesting thought! Assuming that statement is true then if a player hits as many doubles as he prevents he's a "wash". In the case of JBJ it appears to my untrained eye that he prevents more hits (and doubles) than he provides, which makes him an overall plus.

[jad]

Since sports is entertainment, I'd much rather watch JBJ every day than a #3/4 starter (Pom?) every 5 days. And I think I agree about JD--although the discussion is so nuanced and intricate I'm not certain of that. Hanley is a great example of what can happen to a player unhappy with his role: when he was humiliating himself in LF, his hitting definitely suffered. When he moved to 1st (even though many argued he couldn't play the position), everything about his game improved. Too bad not all players look at the DH as Ortiz did.

[jacksonianmarch]

It needs to be compared to a baseline of an “average CFer”. That mark shifts year by year as teams are going more defense oriented in CF than in years past

[S5Dewey]

It needs to be compared to a baseline of an “average CFer”. That mark shifts year by year as teams are going more defense oriented in CF than in years past

 

So how do you reconcile your two most recent posts (#891 &894)? In one instance you're comparing a player's offensive contribution against his defensive contribution, but in the second one you're comparing him to everyone else in the league. It seems like a moving goalpost.

[Station 13]

really????

LOL. you ever look at his splits?????

his best hitting month is september. his second best hitting month is august. his third best hitting month is july.

the dude literally gets BETTER as the season goes on. like...the opposite of "fade".....

 

Not while he has been here exception 2016. Maybe he will sustain the performances his "contract" year. He's been awful more than he's been good.

[Station 13]

JD isn’t a DH in mindset, yet. Throwing him in the OF every now and then definitely helps his psyche and allows other players some rest. Cora definitely subscribed to the theory of ensuring all players, not just the fragile or old, need scheduled rest. And if JD is going to give his best defensive efforts out there, it won’t be once every 10 games, he’ll have to see the field more often.

 

Either way, your squad’s OF defense is impressive. The question becomes, next year, when Pom walks and you tie up Kimbrel with a big contract, does JBJ get moved for an arm to slot into your rotation.

 

Rest the guys in September, not April with many off days in between. Seriously, I haven't seen players this cuddle before.

 

Sale, Porcello, Price, E-rod are our starters next season. With Sale and Porcello both hitting FA at the end. I doubt they could get much for JBJ as it will be 1 year to his FA.

Edited April 24, 2018 by Station 13

[Bellhorn04]

Rest the guys in September, not April with many off days in between. Seriously, I haven't seen players this cuddle before.

 

You can't be sure you'll be able to rest guys in September, if you're in a race you'll want the best team in there every game.

[OH FOY]

JBJ's splits career. Sept/Oct. wow. 2nd half looks like he fades to me. Walks to K's ratio, concerning, 2nd half.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bradlja02&year=Career&t=b

Edited April 24, 2018 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

The problem is, going by lack of objective data leads to bad team building. Maybe he doesn’t make errors, but maybe he’s slow on beaks back, to his left or right. Maybe his range is small. Or, to JDs credit he admitted this, he gets afraid when he nears the wall after breaking his arm a few years ago. These things may not be apparent with the eye test, but a double hit and a double prevented are just as valuable.

 

I think that everything that you mentioned here is very apparent using the eye test. If a player has limited range or is late breaking to balls, I feel certain that by watching them everyday I could see this as could most.