Sox hitting??

[Station 13]

And if we look back in the archives, you will find a thread (or 2) just like this from last year. And the year before that. And ...

 

Some of it's bad contact, some of it's bad luck. Benintendi hit a couple of balls for outs yesterday that were stuck well. Bradley smashed at least 2 bullets right at the first baseman.

 

I am concerned about 2 guys, Bogaerts and Pedroia, who have combined for all of 2 extra base hits. These are guys (especially Bogaerts), who should be doubles machines, who should be in the 40s at least for XBH over the season (Xander should be 50+).

 

I have real concern about Pedroia. Everybody else will get hot.

[moonslav59]

You seem to think that actually scoring runs is irrelevant to any discussion about Sox hitting. I say again, the Sox right now are 26th in MLB in runs scored, which is abysmal for any Sox team. Meanwhile, the team ERA is the 4th best in MLB, which is fantastic, but the Sox are just 1 game above .500 and already 3.5 games behind the Orioles, who have the 3d best ERA in MLB and far more consistent hitting.

 

I say again, I don't expect the current trend--26th in MLB in runs scored--to continue, but am asking whether the Sox this year will get back to the top 5 in runs scored, which historically has been a prerequisite to a successful season.

 

One key is dingers--the Sox are ranked dead last with 11, and the 29th team has 15. I would call that a major power outage, especially for a team that has bought in completely to the Bill James approach which is predicated on no bunting and low risk base-running (at least that's my impression).

 

Related is the absence of Ortiz. I honestly believe this lineup would be fine, but right now it is beyond question there is no stud in our lineup, none.

 

Nobody has hit like a "stud" in April. I agree.

 

I do feel Betts is a stud.

 

HRam, Beni, JBJ, Pedey and Bogey are plus hitters.

 

I'm hoping April was just a fluke with everyone slumping at the same time. It's hard to imagine 5 of our best hitters all having a serious decline year at the same time.

 

I sure as hell hope not!

 

I still see top 5, but we better warm up real soon for that to become a reality.

[Station 13]

I've always thought Bogey should bat 2nd until he shows the power everyone promised.

 

He should, but can't put Pedroia 6th or he'll rip someone's head off.

 

Right now I just don't care where anyone bats, they just need to hit.

[devildavid]

You seem to think that actually scoring runs is irrelevant to any discussion about Sox hitting. I say again, the Sox right now are 26th in MLB in runs scored, which is abysmal for any Sox team. Meanwhile, the team ERA is the 4th best in MLB, which is fantastic, but the Sox are just 1 game above .500 and already 3.5 games behind the Orioles, who have the 3d best ERA in MLB and far more consistent hitting.

 

I say again, I don't expect the current trend--26th in MLB in runs scored--to continue, but am asking whether the Sox this year will get back to the top 5 in runs scored, which historically has been a prerequisite to a successful season.

 

One key is dingers--the Sox are ranked dead last with 11, and the 29th team has 15. I would call that a major power outage, especially for a team that has bought in completely to the Bill James approach which is predicated on no bunting and low risk base-running (at least that's my impression).

 

Related is the absence of Ortiz. I honestly believe this lineup would be fine, but right now it is beyond question there is no stud in our lineup, none.

 

Yes, scoring runs is mostly irrelevant in discussing Sox hitting. I pointed out the lack of overall slugging, which relates to scoring runs. But other than that, there is no major problem with the hitting. I don't think they need a radical change in their overall team hitting approach.

 

The Orioles have 26 HR's but have scored exactly one more run than the Sox, 79 to 78. This fact reflects more positively on the Sox hitting than on the Orioles. Toronto, mired in last place, has scored exactly the same amount of runs as the Sox with 20 HR's . So much for the long ball.

[mvp 78]

I have real concern about Pedroia. Everybody else will get hot.

 

Should have traded him last year when he was hot.

[Wade Boggs]

He should, but can't put Pedroia 6th or he'll rip someone's head off.

 

Right now I just don't care where anyone bats, they just need to hit.

 

Pedroia , has hit clean up and 5th at times. I don't think he would have a problem hitting 6th.

 

 

Benni

XB

Betts

Ramirez

Moreland

Pedy

Bradley

Leon / Vazquez

Hernandez/Rutledge\ Panda

 

That's what you would go with..

[greenwell]

Nobody has hit like a "stud" in April. I agree.

 

I do feel Betts is a stud.

 

HRam, Beni, JBJ, Pedey and Bogey are plus hitters.

 

I'm hoping April was just a fluke with everyone slumping at the same time. It's hard to imagine 5 of our best hitters all having a serious decline year at the same time.

 

I sure as hell hope not!

 

I still see top 5, but we better warm up real soon for that to become a reality.

 

The real concerns are Pedey and Hanley. They are the two oldest players on the team and both had close to the worst months of their career. Granted they're only 33, they should have a few more good years in them.

[Station 13]

Should have traded him last year when he was hot.

 

no trade clause. and nobody wants a bad teammate!

[Emp9]

Yes, scoring runs is mostly irrelevant in discussing Sox hitting. I pointed out the lack of overall slugging, which relates to scoring runs. But other than that, there is no major problem with the hitting. I don't think they need a radical change in their overall team hitting approach.

 

The Orioles have 26 HR's but have scored exactly one more run than the Sox, 79 to 78. This fact reflects more positively on the Sox hitting than on the Orioles. Toronto, mired in last place, has scored exactly the same amount of runs as the Sox with 20 HR's . So much for the long ball.

 

That is very telling. To me It's not hitting, it's hitting at the same time. It's stinging together hits in the same inning. Hitting with runners on and of course with RISP. It's getting an extra base hit. It's NOT hitting into a double play. It's hitting way less pop ups that's for sure. This offense is failing at small ball and power at the same time. I also think the weather has played a part. Not just the 40 degree weather when the game isn't half over yet, but I'd like to think they'd be more aggressive on the basepaths if it wasn't so wet either.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia , has hit clean up and 5th at times. I don't think he would have a problem hitting 6th.

 

Pedey's career numbers by batting slot:

 

1.054 4th

.815 2nd

.802 3rd

.800 9th

.761 1st

 

[Wade Boggs]

The real concerns are Pedey and Hanley. They are the two oldest players on the team and both had close to the worst months of their career. Granted they're only 33, they should have a few more good years in them.

 

 

The real concern is the Power in this line up from everybody. Not just them two. When you go through spells like this , IMO you might think of hit n runs and small ball. That might be the way until the slump breaks out... When you lose Ortiz, and don't replace him the right way, they will have a hole in that spot. If the royals fall out of it maybe they have some players they might move. I just wouldn't move any more prospects. DD made his bed, he will lay in it as well. Also instead of releasing Panda , they gave him the job , he has no range at 3rd. They hoped for a bounce back and he's DL-ED. They gave him a chance, they are stuck. Just nobody looking at dealing or dumping unless you give up more prospects. No Power at 1st and 3rd. That might change with Moreland, not with the third base spot. They will hit not just like your modern sox.

[Jack Flap]

no trade clause. and nobody wants a bad teammate!

 

Savage.

[Emp9]

Pedey's career numbers by batting slot:

 

1.054 4th

.815 2nd

.802 3rd

.800 9th

.761 1st

 

 

yeah I'm completely vexed as to why he's leading off anyhow.

[Station 13]

yeah I'm completely vexed as to why he's leading off anyhow.

 

They made a decision last season, Betts power was wasted batting lead off. Pedroia was also a de facto lead off man having bats 2nd nearly all his career. It's not a dramatic switch, he still bats 1st inning. 1-2 hitters have One job, be on base.

[Wade Boggs]

no trade clause. and nobody wants a bad teammate!

 

You can't get as much as you think. It not about a trade clause , about 90% of MLB players wave it for a chance 2 win. It is about the return.

 

A bad teammate is a different story entirely.

 

So you want Hernandez or Holt replacing him. Plus Hernandez and Holt are about a tick above average in the field... I'm more concern about the clubhouse and leadership, as of his loss of his own skill.

[Bellhorn04]

yeah I'm completely vexed as to why he's leading off anyhow.

 

Last year he hit 362/394/457 leading off, in 213 PA's.

[mvp 78]

Last year he hit 362/394/457 leading off, in 213 PA's.

 

Was he drug tested?

[Emp9]

Last year he hit 362/394/457 leading off, in 213 PA's.

 

For one, we have Beni now. We face a lot of RH SPers, why not leadoff with a LHB? Makes more sense to me. Yes, Pedroia did better than I expected him to last year at leadoff, doesn't mean he belongs there. It doesn't mean he's not better somewhere else down the lineup (where he actually does have better numbers). Pedroia didn't start the season as leadoff, that was mid-august when he had 4 1/2 months of baseball behind him.

[moonslav59]

They made a decision last season, Betts power was wasted batting lead off. Pedroia was also a de facto lead off man having bats 2nd nearly all his career. It's not a dramatic switch, he still bats 1st inning. 1-2 hitters have One job, be on base.

 

Then, to score runs by not getting doubled up, taking extra bases on hits by the guys behind you by using your speed and scoring runs.

 

Pedey is not fast. His base-running score on fangraphs was a plus from 2007-2012, but has gone down since:

 

'11 +2.1

'12 +0.3

'13 -1.1

'14 -1.2

'15 -1.1

'16 -4.5

(It's at -1.4 in less than a month this year: this is a cumulative stat.)

 

[moonslav59]

For one, we have Beni now. We face a lot of RH SPers, why not leadoff with a LHB? Makes more sense to me. Yes, Pedroia did better than I expected him to last year at leadoff, doesn't mean he belongs there. It doesn't mean he's not better somewhere else down the lineup (where he actually does have better numbers). Pedroia didn't start the season as leadoff, that was mid-august when he had 4 1/2 months of baseball behind him.

 

Go with Beni at one!

 

I agree.

[Emp9]

I don't think Pedroia should be looked at as the Main Stay Lead-off hitter on the team. Especially when we have a player like Benitendi who looks to be the prototypical lead-off man that any team in their right mind would want leading-off.

[devildavid]

Go with Beni at one!

 

I agree.

 

I'm not disagreeing with this, but it's funny how Mookie went from being the ideal leadoff hitter to one of our power bats. And this season he has gotten off to a good enough start to justify putting him in the top spot. But yeah, Beni is a great leadoff choice. Kid's got a great approach at the plate.

[mvp 78]

Go with Beni at one!

 

I agree.

 

Even the worst lineup decision isn't enough to change a score by more than a run a game. This offense just isn't doing it right now.

[Station 13]

Then, to score runs by not getting doubled up, taking extra bases on hits by the guys behind you by using your speed and scoring runs.

 

Pedey is not fast. His base-running score on fangraphs was a plus from 2007-2012, but has gone down since:

 

'11 +2.1

'12 +0.3

'13 -1.1

'14 -1.2

'15 -1.1

'16 -4.5

(It's at -1.4 in less than a month this year: this is a cumulative stat.)

 

Pedroia has not been a stolen base threat in a long time. But not every lead off hitter has to be. He has a high OB%. Once those batters behind him begins to swing the bat, they'll reap the benefits of his OB%.

 

Pedroia is off to a slow start, let's give him 2-4 weeks before removing him from lead off.

 

Right now they need to do a little more by setting runners in motion. A team that makes this type of contact should not be immediately doubled up once they got something brewing.

Edited April 28, 2017 by Station 13

[moonslav59]

I don't think Pedroia should be looked at as the Main Stay Lead-off hitter on the team. Especially when we have a player like Benitendi who looks to be the prototypical lead-off man that any team in their right mind would want leading-off.

 

That begs the question, "what are we waiting for?"

 

I'm not saying making that move is going to energize our offense right away, but we should make an effort to try and jump start things.

 

The line-ups I suggested in December:

 

vs RHPs:

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) Pedey

5) HRam

6) JBJ

7) Pablo

8) Moreland

9) Leon

 

vs LHPs

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Young

6) Pedey

7) JBJ

8) Rutledge/Hernandez

9) Vaz

 

 

[moonslav59]

Pedroia has not been a stolen base threat in a long time. But not every lead off hitter has to be. He has a high OB%. Once those batters behind him begins to swing the bat, they'll reap the benefits of his OB%.

 

Pedroia is off to a slow start, let's give him 2-4 weeks before removing him from lead off.

 

Right now they need to do a little more by setting runners in motion. A team that makes this type of contact should not be immediately doubled up once they got something brewing.

 

I'm not suggesting we demote him because of a slow start. I wanted this since before the season started.

[moonslav59]

Even the worst lineup decision isn't enough to change a score by more than a run a game. This offense just isn't doing it right now.

 

True, but maybe sometimes shaking things up gets the players energized.

[Slasher9]

Q - when you get a moment please change the name of this thread to Sox Not Hitting

[Emp9]

That begs the question, "what are we waiting for?"

 

I'm not saying making that move is going to energize our offense right away, but we should make an effort to try and jump start things.

 

The line-ups I suggested in December:

 

vs RHPs:

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) Pedey

5) HRam

6) JBJ

7) Pablo

8) Moreland

9) Leon

 

vs LHPs

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Young

6) Pedey

7) JBJ

8) Rutledge/Hernandez

9) Vaz

 

 

 

At least vs RHPs, right? He's already proven enough with his bat he can handle MLB pitching and he's faster than Betts. If we see zero gains, it's still the right move.

[Emp9]

Q - when you get a moment please change the name of this thread to Red Sox Not Hitting

 

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