A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

One pundit at least thinks Devers will bulk up as he fully matures, leaving 1st as a better long term solution. It won't happen this year but sounds like a possibility going forward. His battng profile fits either ist or 3rd.

 

I do think Devers ends up at 1B- maybe as soon as next year. It just will not and should not happen this year.

 

I do think Bogey might be better suited at 3B, but he will not want that and may demand a trade. It's a tricky situation going forward.

 

[moonslav59]

I would have too, if such a thing existed.

 

It doesn't.

[moonslav59]

Maybe a fiery guy like Bobby V!

 

Funny, on another site I mentioned "anyone but Bobby V".

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't.

 

Hot streaks and cold streaks certainly exist though.

[Kimmi]

It exists. They often appear throughout the year depending upon how you build your sample.

 

My favorite part about NESN broadcasts is how much they love talking about short hitting streaks. "Pedroia has hit safely in the past 9 games and it hitting .375 over that time period!" Well, of course his batting average will be probably be higher if he's had at least one hit in each game. When Utley hit safely in 36 games, his average was .405. He still only wound up hitting .309 that year.

 

The "player is hot" is more theoretical than anything else.

 

Streaks definitely exist. The predictive value of a streak does not. A hot player is just as likely to go 0-4 the next game as he is to go 1-4, 2-4, 3-4, or 4-4. Put your best hitters in the line up, not your hottest hitters.

[mvp 78]

I do think Devers ends up at 1B- maybe as soon as next year. It just will not and should not happen this year.

 

I do think Bogey might be better suited at 3B, but he will not want that and may demand a trade. It's a tricky situation going forward.

 

 

Why would they move him next year. All the scouts say he will be fine at 3B for now. Any move would be 5+ years down the line.

[moonslav59]

Why would they move him next year. All the scouts say he will be fine at 3B for now. Any move would be 5+ years down the line.

 

I'm not looking to move him. I was responding to the idea of getting a SS, moving Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B.

 

I don't see that happening. Bogey would demand a trade rather than move to 3B.

 

Devers should stay at 3B for a few years anyways.

 

1Bmen are easier to acquire than any other position in MLB.

 

When I spoke of my dream, I am talking about wanting a great fielding SS. I have always valued superb SS defense more than most people. I am not a fan of Bogey's SS defense, but his offense makes up for his shortcomings on defense. I'm fine with keeping him at SS at least until his contract runs out.

 

[Slasher9]

Yep. One error every 4 1/2 games is a lot, and yet some folks are willing to overlook that in the hope that he can hit. :-(

Devin Marrero has made 3 errors @ 3B in 49 games, or about 1 error every 16 games and has an OPS of .582.

 

I know we're all involved in the Rafael Devers fan club here, but it makes no sense to me to replace good defense with bad defense and expect the offense to be so much better than it'll be a net gain. Is it a net gain if Devers OPS is .200 points higher than Marrero's but he makes even twice as many errors as Marrero? And if it's not a net gain, then why are we doing it?

 

I'm not trying to blow Marrero's horn here - he is what he is - but I simply don't see Devers being a net gain.

 

good post that has me thinking the callup is a mistake at this point.

[Nick]

I do think Devers ends up at 1B- maybe as soon as next year. It just will not and should not happen this year.

 

I do think Bogey might be better suited at 3B, but he will not want that and may demand a trade. It's a tricky situation going forward.

 

 

I don't want a singles hitter at 3B........why spread our lack of power?

[Nick]

This, absolutely. If the team is going to make a change at least this is the right change.

 

We can always play Marrero in late innings.....

 

If Devers sucks, he can be sent down....

 

I will let you know when he's hurting our team.....he hasn't yet.

[S5Dewey]

We can always play Marrero in late innings.....

 

If Devers sucks, he can be sent down....

 

I will let you know when he's hurting our team.....he hasn't yet.

 

It's not a matter of his hurting the team. Given who he's replacing I don't see him hurting the team. I also don't see him helping the team, and if he's not going to help the team we should stay with the status quo.

[sk7326]

It's not a matter of his hurting the team. Given who he's replacing I don't see him hurting the team. I also don't see him helping the team, and if he's not going to help the team we should stay with the status quo.

 

He puts a good outcome on the board ... even if it's not likely, that it could is enough. The other options simply do not have that sort of upside. In terms of downside they are all roughly the same.

[sk7326]

One pundit at least thinks Devers will bulk up as he fully matures, leaving 1st as a better long term solution. It won't happen this year but sounds like a possibility going forward. His battng profile fits either ist or 3rd.

 

Maybe - the consensus scouting I've seen says he is fine at 3B, and eventually his bat will profile anywhere.

[sk7326]

We can always play Marrero in late innings.....

 

If Devers sucks, he can be sent down....

 

I will let you know when he's hurting our team.....he hasn't yet.

 

They don't bring him up at all if they had an intention of cutting bait quickly. He is going to be part of the 3B situation the rest of the way - the only question is how much platooning they do. (my guess = quite a bit)

[moonslav59]

We have some top non pitching players in MLB. We're not doing too well right now, but I am far from panic mode.

 

Top WAR players from 2016-2017 (700+ PAs):

1. Trout 13.2

2. Betts 12.2

3. Altuve 12.2

4. Bryant 11.7

5. Seager 11.4

 

27. Bogaerts 7.3

29. Pedroia 7.2

31. J. B. Jr. 6.7

 

Having 4 of the top 31 WAR players, a starting rotation like ours and the bestc loser in MLB should be enough to get us into the playoffs and more.

 

Want to upgrade the offense in a big way? Here's a list of the top WAR players from 2016-2017 on teams that are out of it or maybe will be out of it by the end of August's waiver wire trade period:

 

(Note: I'm not saying all of these players are or will be available.)

 

1B

9.0 F Freeman

8.5 J Votto

6.0 B Belt

5.4 Miggy

4.6 M Carpenter

4.6 Wil Myers

3.5 J Abreu

3.4 C Davis

3.1 J Bour

2.9 J Smoak

2.8 Freese

(2.1 HRam)

1.8 M Adams

1.7 Y Alonso

(0.7 Moreland)

 

DH

5.9 N Cruz

5.9 E Inciarte (OF)

5.9 O Herrera (OF)

5.5 M Ozuna (OF)

4.7 A Duval (OF)

4.6 B Hamilton (OF)

4.4 G Stanton (OF)

4.4 R Braun (OF)

4.4 K Calhoun (OF)

4.3 M Conforto (OF)

4.1 S MArte (OF)

4.5 J Upton (OF)

3.8 K Davis

3.5 McCutchen (OF)

3.5 Y Cespedes (OF)

2.9 A Garcia

2.1 M Trumbo

 

3B (to DH/1B or eventually move Devers to 1B)

8.9 Donaldson

8.5 Machado

7.6 Beltre

7.5 Seager

4.2 Gyorko

3.9 Y Solarte

3.8 E Nunez

3.7 F Suarez

3.0 Prado

2.9 Freese

2.6 Castellanos

2.4 Y Escobar

2.4 R Schimpf

 

 

[moonslav59]

Despite the team slump, we are still 12th in runs scored and...

 

2 runs from 11th

 

3 runs from the top 10 tier

 

6 runs from 9th

 

Not bad for a team ranked 29th in ISO at .141!

 

(We're 7th in OBP at .332.)

[moonslav59]

Luis Ysla to be DFA'd to make room for Nunez.

 

Rutledge will finish his rehab soon and must be on the 25 man roster or be DFA'd or DL'd.

 

Not sure what the plan will be for him. (Make room for a RP'er or 1Bman basher?)

 

(Ben Taylor to DL as Boyer comes off it.)

Edited July 26, 2017 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Despite the team slump, we are still 12th in runs scored and...

 

2 runs from 11th

 

3 runs from the top 10 tier

 

6 runs from 9th

 

Not bad for a team ranked 29th in ISO at .141!

 

(We're 7th in OBP at .332.)

 

It's extremely frustrating, but it's not as bad as it seems. Starting with the Tampa Bay series, we have lost 11 games by a total of 25 runs. All of those games were within reasonable grasp. It makes you want to beat your head against a wall, but it does bode better for the team than if we were losing the games 5+ runs.

[Larry Cook]

It's extremely frustrating, but it's not as bad as it seems. Starting with the Tampa Bay series, we have lost 11 games by a total of 25 runs. All of those games were within reasonable grasp. It makes you want to beat your head against a wall, but it does bode better for the team than if we were losing the games 5+ runs.

 

The lack of power on this team is hurting us badly.

[oldtimer]

It's extremely frustrating, but it's not as bad as it seems. Starting with the Tampa Bay series, we have lost 11 games by a total of 25 runs. All of those games were within reasonable grasp. It makes you want to beat your head against a wall, but it does bode better for the team than if we were losing the games 5+ runs.

 

You're right. a hit at the right time, smarter base running, avoidance of Fister would have meant a win or two. It has been frustrating to see Devers held back, to see Fister pitching in key situations, to have Moreland in the cleanup spot, to see Bogey totally tank and Betts close to the same. After waiting to near the trade deadline, we finally are made a move. With our limited financial capability (assumping the salary cap) Nunez was at least a positive move. Adding a 300 hitter is the first positive trade move and now someone in the BP and 1st base would help, but don't hold your breath.

[Kimmi]

You're right. a hit at the right time, smarter base running, avoidance of Fister would have meant a win or two. It has been frustrating to see Devers held back, to see Fister pitching in key situations, to have Moreland in the cleanup spot, to see Bogey totally tank and Betts close to the same. After waiting to near the trade deadline, we finally are made a move. With our limited financial capability (assumping the salary cap) Nunez was at least a positive move. Adding a 300 hitter is the first positive trade move and now someone in the BP and 1st base would help, but don't hold your breath.

 

Neshek was traded to the Rockies, so he's off the table. I am confident that we will get either a BP arm or a 1B, but I don't think we have the resources for both. My guess is we'll get a reliever, and go with what we have for 1B. Maybe Travis will be called back up.

[OH FOY]

Month of July the Yanks hit .237, Tampa hit .239, and we didn't separate from them, in fact we lost ground. We hit .240 for the Month.

Hope this don't bite us in the ass.

[Nick]

Nunez can fill in for

 

3B Devers

SS Xander

LF Beni

DH Hanley

 

Devers can also DH with Hanley moving over to 1B. Not even sure why we would need Holt? Devers and Nunez can fill in several different ways.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

Defensive Runs Saved

1. 25 Mookie Betts

2. 18 Byron Buxton

3. 17 Jedd Gyorko

4. 16 Andrelton Simmons

5. 16 Nolan Arenado

 

Mookie is just the best.

[moonslav59]

Nunez can fill in for

 

3B Devers

SS Xander

LF Beni

DH Hanley

 

Devers can also DH with Hanley moving over to 1B. Not even sure why we would need Holt? Devers and Nunez can fill in several different ways.

 

By moving HRam to 1B, Nunez can actually get Moreland out of the line-up.

 

HRam is not sitting, unless he needs one day off here or there.

[oldtimer]

Neshek was traded to the Rockies, so he's off the table. I am confident that we will get either a BP arm or a 1B, but I don't think we have the resources for both. My guess is we'll get a reliever, and go with what we have for 1B. Maybe Travis will be called back up.

 

I missed the news on Neshek as 2 of our grandkids were visiting for much of this week. Too bad as I thought he would have the perfect rental for us.

[moonslav59]

There will be plenty of good RP'ers available at the deadline.

[OH FOY]

3 games with hot KC, and then 3 with the Guardians, tough little stretch.

[mvp 78]

3 games with hot KC, and then 3 with the Guardians, tough little stretch.

 

If you can't win in the regular season, you won't win in the postseason.

[moonslav59]

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