A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[sk7326]

I'm not arguing with the last statement, but there's a reason that OPS was created and that it's become such a popular benchmark for offensive production.

 

Here's a statistical test/challenge about this: find a team with a low SLG that has been one of the highest scoring teams in spite of that because of their high OBP.

 

OPS is good for its purpose (to me) - which is a good training wheel statistic for people who have been raised on batting average and RBIs.

 

Now OBP matters more - even if you did not have the correlation in front of you ... a team with a 1.000 SLG could be retired (1 homerun and 3 outs) while a team with a 1.000 OBP would never finish a batting inning. That said, it HAS been annoying to watch. But the indicators lean strongly toward this turning around.

[a700hitter]

I appreciate all the drilling into the numbers for clues and the conclusions that things will turn around unless the dreaded "enigma" rears its head. However, there is an element that gets overlooked and I don't know if it is quantifiable. That is that good teams figure out a way to win games and bad teams find new ways to lose games. Edited May 22, 2017 by a700hitter
typo

[sk7326]

I appreciate all he drilling into the numbers for clues and the conclusions that things will turn around unless the dreaded "enigma" rears its head. However, there is an element that gets overlooked and I don't know if it is quantifiable. That is that good teams figure out a way to win games and bad teams find new ways to lose games.

 

I look at this way. The team is 22-21 ... an 83-84 win pace ... with very few things going right (Sale, Rodriguez, Kelly, Kimbrel - that's it), against a fairly stern schedule. I think there is a measure of credit here for the team to keep its head above water while a lot of things just haven't gone too well.

[oldtimer]

I look at this way. The team is 22-21 ... an 83-84 win pace ... with very few things going right (Sale, Rodriguez, Kelly, Kimbrel - that's it), against a fairly stern schedule. I think there is a measure of credit here for the team to keep its head above water while a lot of things just haven't gone too well.

 

There is a school of thought that suggests the Red Sox haven't played to their potential. The incidents with both Pedroia and Pomeranz seemingly in disagreement with Farrell are cauusing speculation that a change is needed. Its not clear tht there is an alternative out there that would be an improvement. Trading away valuable and now scarce resources for an expensive and underperforming power hitting doesn't sound reasonable to me. Changing management during the season, especially when no clear choice is available also doesn't sound reasonable.

[Slasher9]

Upon reading that the Red Sox and Nationals have been scouting the White Sox recently, I'm curious on what TalkSox think about all this. Is it just due diligence? I've always liked Quintana, he's been one the the most if not THE most under-rated SPer(s) in the league for the last 3 years. I've been following him closely, having drafted him for my fantasy team of last year, and this season. The reasons that he's available in fantasy is that he doesn't get that many Wins (not his fault) and K's (this doesn't necessarily mean too much in baseball reality, only in fantasy). However, this season he hasn't been that impressive and I'd hate to give up too many assets for him (we don't have many of them left either, but I do think we would have enough, just barely, unless some other team upped the ante of course). I also think we've built from the top with Sale, and Price coming back soon, ERod's QS after QS, and if Porcello stops loving his FB so much (again) and starts mixing in his Sinker (again), we only need a quality 4th or 5th SP. What do you all think? Should we go for broke for Quintana? I'm in a serious way leaning towards no.

 

i 100% go after Quintana if he is made available...

pitching = parades.

[Slasher9]

Pomeranz has yet to get past six innings this season, having gone four, three and four innings, respectively, in his last three outings. Since joining the Red Sox, he has gotten an out in the seventh inning just twicw in 21 starts.

He's a long reliever that comes in to start the game.

and we traded a HoF stud for that. DD sucks....

[Maxbialystock]

I appreciate all he drilling into the numbers for clues and the conclusions that things will turn around unless the dreaded "enigma" rears its head. However, there is an element that gets overlooked and I don't know if it is quantifiable. That is that good teams figure out a way to win games and bad teams find new ways to lose games.

 

I don't believe that but have to admit there are times when it looks as though that is exactly what is going on. Other times, however, it looks as though our pitching is just lousy or our guys just aren't hitting or both. A year ago we led the AL in runs by 100, but right now we are 36 behind the Yankees who lead. We started the season with what looked to be a decent rotation, but now clearly we miss Price on the DL and Wright too. Pomeranz is still starting, but every time he goes out to the mound I'm thinking "here comes Freddy Kruger, and I don't mind admitting I'm scared to death." Velazquez with his under 2 ERA in 5 starts at AAA was a bust and caused some to want to hang Farrell in effigy for even letting him go to the mound at all.

 

This team just played at gritty two game series, which they swept, in St Louis against the NL Central division leaders. Then wham--the Oakland A's take 3 straight almost (except for the 10 inning game when Sale started for us) without breaking a sweat. Go figure.

[Kimmi]

Yankees lose, we lose. Yankees win, we win. Beyond frustrating.

 

It has been frustrating, but it's better than us losing and the Yankees winning.

[Jack Flap]

i 100% go after Quintana if he is made available...

pitching = parades.

 

I don't think we have the chips to land someone like Quintana any more.

[Kimmi]

a little bit of a red herring here ...

 

OBP and SLG are not independent. While OBP is a lot more important, they are going to correlate quite a bit. The Sox 4th/19th split is truly unusual - again, everything they are doing indicates this will solve itself. Team is 6th in the league in line drive rate, 4th in hard contact, 4th in doubles.

 

Now the interesting thing is that the Sox are the hardest team in the league to strike out by a mile (the 2nd place Astros are closer to 16th than they are to the Sox). Has there been a connection between contact and trying to lift the ball. I don't know. That is the interesting question to me.

 

You seriously need to post more often sk.

 

Thank you for this post.

[moonslav59]

i 100% go after Quintana if he is made available...

pitching = parades.

 

Wonder if what we gave for Pom and circumstance, err, I mean Pom and Thornburg plus maybe another prospect would have come close to getting Quintana.

 

I doubt we have what it takes to get Q now.

[Station 13]

I don't think we have the chips to land someone like Quintana any more.

 

Need a bat first.

[moonslav59]

Time to get serious. 6 games at home then 10 on the road.

22 Off

23 TEX Porcello

24 TEX ????

25 TEX Sale

26 SEA ERod

27 SEA Pom +2

28 SEA Porcello

29 @CWS Price???

30 @ CWS Sale

31 @ CWS ERod

then

4 games at BAL

3 games at NYY

 

[Station 13]

Time to get serious. 6 games at home then 10 on the road.

22 Off

23 TEX Porcello

24 TEX ????

25 TEX Sale

26 SEA ERod

27 SEA Pom +2

28 SEA Porcello

29 @CWS Price???

30 @ CWS Sale

31 @ CWS ERod

then

4 games at BAL

3 games at NYY

 

Price won't pitch between Sale and Porcello.

[a700hitter]

Time to get serious. 6 games at home then 10 on the road.

22 Off

23 TEX Porcello

24 TEX ????

25 TEX Sale

26 SEA ERod

27 SEA Pom +2

28 SEA Porcello

29 @CWS Price???

30 @ CWS Sale

31 @ CWS ERod

then

4 games at BAL

3 games at NYY

 

Sale is pitching on Wednesday, Pom on Thurs, ERod on Friday and Kendrick gets another chance to forfeit a game on Saturday.

[Bama Boy]

Sale is pitching on Wednesday, Pom on Thurs, ERod on Friday and Kendrick gets another chance to forfeit a game on Saturday.

 

Why can't Kelly start a game for us rather than Kendrick?

 

I get he is in the pen now but the last two 5th starter guys have blown. Surely he gives us a better shot.

[a700hitter]

Why can't Kelly start a game for us rather than Kendrick?

 

I get he is in the pen now but the last two 5th starter guys have blown. Surely he gives us a better shot.

It would be better just to forfeit the game than to give Kendrick another start. At least, that would rest the bullpen.

[Nick]

Wonder if what we gave for Pom and circumstance, err, I mean Pom and Thornburg plus maybe another prospect would have come close to getting Quintana.

 

I doubt we have what it takes to get Q now.

 

This goes with YOUR idea of if you're going big, you go BIG. Pomeranz does not have the ceiling of say E Rod. Trade had to been made and I will not fault DD for it. BUT, perehaps there was a better trade out there. I'm concerned with our staff's ability to acquire 'healthy' players.

[moonslav59]

Sale is pitching on Wednesday, Pom on Thurs, ERod on Friday and Kendrick gets another chance to forfeit a game on Saturday.

 

Thanks for the updates.

[moonslav59]

This goes with YOUR idea of if you're going big, you go BIG. Pomeranz does not have the ceiling of say E Rod. Trade had to been made and I will not fault DD for it. BUT, perehaps there was a better trade out there. I'm concerned with our staff's ability to acquire 'healthy' players.

 

Trading to upgrade the middle or bottom of the rotation rarely works.

 

Go for number ones or number twos has always been my philosophy.

 

Even the massive overpay for Price made sense to me.

 

The Pom trade never will.

[mvp 78]

Why can't Kelly start a game for us rather than Kendrick?

 

I get he is in the pen now but the last two 5th starter guys have blown. Surely he gives us a better shot.

 

His arm isn't stretched out. He's much more valuable as a reliever.

[Jack Flap]

It would be better just to forfeit the game than to give Kendrick another start. At least, that would rest the bullpen.

 

I haven't seen anything about Kendrick getting another start...where did you hear that?

 

I'd rather give Brian Johnson another chance if we need another starter before Price is ready.

[cp176]

What gets done with Owens and Johnson? Bringing up Val...whoever and Kendrick to pitch with these two seemingly healthy and pitching in Pawtucket seems ridiculous to me. They have both been kicking around for awhile now and it would seem to be about time they a get more than a one game here or there start to see if they will ever pitch for us.

[mvp 78]

What gets done with Owens and Johnson? Bringing up Val...whoever and Kendrick to pitch with these two seemingly healthy and pitching in Pawtucket seems ridiculous to me. They have both been kicking around for awhile now and it would seem to be about time they a get more than a one game here or there start to see if they will ever pitch for us.

 

Owens stinks. Until he cuts down the BB%, he should stay in AAA. The thinking with Johnson is that he probably needs to pitch every 5th day and have consistency since he missed time last few years. With the 2 rope a dopes Velazquez and Kendrick, you can jerk them around a bit and not worry about keeping them on a schedule.

[cp176]

Owens stinks. Until he cuts down the BB%, he should stay in AAA. The thinking with Johnson is that he probably needs to pitch every 5th day and have consistency since he missed time last few years. With the 2 rope a dopes Velazquez and Kendrick, you can jerk them around a bit and not worry about keeping them on a schedule.

 

Owens does stink but what are we hanging on to him for? I wonder what the thinking is about him. One thing we do know is that him being in Pawtucket isn't standing in the way of any other ml prospect.

[a700hitter]

I haven't seen anything about Kendrick getting another start...where did you hear that?

 

I'd rather give Brian Johnson another chance if we need another starter before Price is ready.

It had been on MLB.com probable pitchers, but I just looked and now they have both Saturday and Sunday listed as TBD.

[Jasonbay44]

I really hope Kendrick isn't getting another start, he doesn't even give the team a chance to win. Although, I'm not sure Owens, or Johnson do either.

[a700hitter]

I really hope Kendrick isn't getting another start, he doesn't even give the team a chance to win. Although, I'm not sure Owens, or Johnson do either.

I would prefer a forfeit to save the Bullpen.

[cp176]

I would prefer a forfeit to save the Bullpen.

 

might not be a bad idea - when I bought my first strat-o-matic game back in 1964-65, I cheated because those stats were just so good. Dick Radatz pitched some beauties for me. Maybe we could just play the game on the board and start Kimbrel!

[mvp 78]

@nickcafardo

 

Red Sox bringing up first base prospect Sam Travis