A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Kimmi]

Ding, ding, ding....we have a winner.

 

You do everything you can to seize the moment.

 

I will say it again. TO HAVE THE MINOR LEAGUE'S WORST OPS GUY PLAYING 3B while you have a guy with over .900 OPS is f***ING ASININE. Especially with this pussy of a line up.

 

Why not ask Sale who he would rather have playing 3B?

 

Yeah, Kimmi and her gang will jump in and proclaim players can't make decisions for the organization. I get it. But just as I applauded DD's moves last year (not the results) for not WASTING terrific years from Ortiz, Betts and Porcello, something needs to be done this year.

 

Sitting on your ass day after day expecting different result is not formula for success. Do something. Ship has taken water.

 

I have a gang? Cool!

 

Actually, I think 'my gang' has jumped ship. I'm all alone.

[Kimmi]

It would be nice to have a big husky power hitter in the 4 slot, but our little guys seems to have more power than most "lead off hitter" types.

 

I think we'll hit for more power the rest of the way as a team, but getting on base is still the leading indicator for projecting runs scored.

 

I love this post.

[Kimmi]

It would be nice to have a big husky power hitter in the 4 slot, but our little guys seems to have more power than most "lead off hitter" types.

 

I think we'll hit for more power the rest of the way as a team, but getting on base is still the leading indicator for projecting runs scored.

 

Moon is still in my gang.

[Kimmi]

Which has a higher correlation though, OBP or OPS? There has to be some factoring in there of total bases and SLG.

 

OPS has a higher correlation, but OPS is a combination of two hitting stats, so it should have a higher correlation. OBP has a higher correlation than SLG. Getting on base is more important than power.

[Kimmi]

Here are the home run totals for last season: Hanley - 30. Pedroia - 15. Bogaerts - 21. Bradley - 26. Betts - 31. The power is there. They are just not showing it so far this season. Maybe there has been too much emphasis on just getting on base, especially in the case of Bogaerts. OBP is important , but you also need to lift and drive the ball out of the park. That is how to put some runs on the board quickly. These guys have proven that they have that ability. It is high time they started to show it.

 

I like this post.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 11h11 hours ago

 

Price, Sale and Kimbrel have been worth 10 WAR so far at the cost of $217m, Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz, Margot, Allen. Guerra, Asuaje.

 

The 17 other Dombrowski acquisitions have been worth 2.1 WAR at the cost of $18.5m, Espinoza, Shaw, Dubon, and 10 others.

 

The $217m does not quite work at the two year point, but I think this gives a good overall picture of how Dombrowski has overpaid in putting this team together.

[Northern Star]

I have a gang? Cool!

 

Actually, I think 'my gang' has jumped ship. I'm all alone.

 

Yeah, the gang walked the gangplank.

[Northern Star]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 11h11 hours ago

 

Price, Sale and Kimbrel have been worth 10 WAR so far at the cost of $217m, Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz, Margot, Allen. Guerra, Asuaje.

 

The 17 other Dombrowski acquisitions have been worth 2.1 WAR at the cost of $18.5m, Espinoza, Shaw, Dubon, and 10 others.

 

The $217m does not quite work at the two year point, but I think this gives a good overall picture of how Dombrowski has overpaid in putting this team together.

 

Faulty math but still the point is made. I am not a fan.

[Emp9]

I have a gang? Cool!

 

Actually, I think 'my gang' has jumped ship. I'm all alone.

 

Hey Kimmi, that reminds me, those bandanas you wanted ordered came in yesterday...so everyone will get one for Monday's Hand Sign meeting...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

No one can argue that getting on base more frequently than others should lead to more runs scored. You still have to look at your lineup. A balance is needed. We do not have it.

 

Nobody is going to say our offense has been fine to date, but I think we are better than we have shown so far.

 

Time will tell.

 

One thing I see that looks "balanced" is that we have only one position (3B) below a .700 OPS.

[a700hitter]

Nobody is going to say our offense has been fine to date, but I think we are better than we have shown so far.

 

Time will tell.

 

One thing I see that looks "balanced" is that we have only one position (3B) below a .700 OPS.

If they can have a middle of the pack offense, the team will be fine, but middle of the pack will be quite a climb.

[moonslav59]

And what makes it even worse than that is this is just OPS, not park-adjusted OPS+...

 

Baseball Reference has this...

 

OPS+ by position

132 SS

124 PH

115 CF

110 RF

104 C

103 DH

99 2B

88 1B

85 LF

53 3B

[moonslav59]

Moon is still in my gang.

 

Wow, I woke up today and discovered I'm a gangsta!

[Bellhorn04]

That's exactly the point. Look at what Theo was able to do when he doesn't have to answer to a boss.

 

He did pretty did good with us too.

[moonslav59]

If they can have a middle of the pack offense, the team will be fine, but middle of the pack will be quite a climb.

 

We're 11 runs away from 7th out of 15 teams in the AL after just going past the quarter point in the season.

 

Yes, we have to improve, but it's not a big climb.

 

I think we'll end up top 5 in the AL and maybe top 3 in runs scored.

[Bellhorn04]

OPS has a higher correlation, but OPS is a combination of two hitting stats, so it should have a higher correlation. OBP has a higher correlation than SLG. Getting on base is more important than power.

 

I'm not arguing with the last statement, but there's a reason that OPS was created and that it's become such a popular benchmark for offensive production.

 

Here's a statistical test/challenge about this: find a team with a low SLG that has been one of the highest scoring teams in spite of that because of their high OBP.

[moonslav59]

I'm not arguing with the last statement, but there's a reason that OPS was created and that it's become such a popular benchmark for offensive production.

 

Here's a statistical test/challenge about this: find a team with a low SLG that has been one of the highest scoring teams in spite of that because of their high OBP.

 

Here's a weird situation:

 

The Rangers are 10th in runs scored but 23rd in OPS.

17th in SLG at .407 (Sox are 19th at .405)

23rd in OBP at .313 (Sox are 7th at .334)

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a weird situation:

 

The Rangers are 10th in runs scored but 23rd in OPS.

17th in SLG at .407 (Sox are 19th at .405)

23rd in OBP at .313 (Sox are 7th at .334)

 

Yeah, there is some serious randomness going on there.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, there is some serious randomness going on there.

Enigmas all over the league!

[Kimmi]

Faulty math but still the point is made. I am not a fan.

 

I am not a fan of his methods.

[Kimmi]

Hey Kimmi, that reminds me, those bandanas you wanted ordered came in yesterday...so everyone will get one for Monday's Hand Sign meeting...

 

LOL Just in time!

[Kimmi]

He did pretty did good with us too.

 

Of course, but I think he could have done a lot better without the overbearing influence of Lucchino.

 

Anyway, the point of that post was that not being able to convince your boss to change his mind is not a sign of a poor GM.

[Kimmi]

I'm not arguing with the last statement, but there's a reason that OPS was created and that it's become such a popular benchmark for offensive production.

 

Here's a statistical test/challenge about this: find a team with a low SLG that has been one of the highest scoring teams in spite of that because of their high OBP.

 

I agree about OPS and you are probably right that most high scoring teams have a good slugging % as well as a good OBP. I'm too lazy to look at the moment, but as I said, I'm guessing that you are right about that.

 

IMO, we should still be scoring more runs than we have been because of our good OBP. Either way, the main point is that we are getting runners on base, which is a good sign. If we keep getting runners on base, the runs will score.

[moonslav59]

Here's what I put together:

 

Since 2014, the leader in runs scored ranked as such in OBP and SLG:

 

Runs Team OBP / SLG Ranks

2556 TOR 3/2

2556 COL 6/1

2444 BOS 1/5

2400 DET 2/4

2395 WSH 7/7

2363 TEX 11/10

2358 BAL 24/3

2332 LAD 4/9

2331 LAA 15/19

2312 AZ 14/8

 

Highest OBP team not in the top 10 in scoring:

Pitt at #5 (.327) who was 20th in SLG at .398

 

Highest SLG team not in the top 10 in scoring:

Hou at #6 (.414) who was 17th in OBP at .316

 

 

 

[Northern Star]

Yankees lose, we lose. Yankees win, we win. Beyond frustrating.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure taking away the worst two or three games from every pitcher would greatly affect their numbers, but here's a look at a few Sox pitchers:

 

Hembree: 4.29 ERA (10 ER in 21.0 IP)

-4 ER in 0.1 IP>> 2.73 ERA (6 in 19.2)

-3 ER in 0.1 IP>> 1.40 ERA (3 in 19.1)

-2 ER in 0.2 IP>> 0.47 ERA (1 in 19.0)

 

Barnes: 4.08 ERA (8 ER in 17.2 IP)

-2 ER in 0.0 IP >> 3.05 ERA (6 in 17.2)

-3 ER in 1.1 IP >> 1.65 ERA (3 in 16.1)

-1 ER in 0.1 IP >> 1.13 ERA (2 in 16.0)

 

Taylor 6.59 ER (10 ER in 13.2 IP)

-4 ER in 0.0 IP >> 3.95 ERA (6 in 13.2)

-2 ER in 1 IP >> 2.87 ERA (4 in 12.2 IP

-2 ER in 1 IP >> 1.54 ERA (2 in 11.2)

[moonslav59]

Yankees lose, we lose. Yankees win, we win. Beyond frustrating.

 

If the season ended now, here's the wild card shakedown:

 

+2 BAL

MN -0

CLE -0

TX -1.0 (not counting Sunday night's game)

DET -1.5 (not counting Sunday night's game)

BOS -1.5

[sk7326]

I'm not arguing with the last statement, but there's a reason that OPS was created and that it's become such a popular benchmark for offensive production.

 

Here's a statistical test/challenge about this: find a team with a low SLG that has been one of the highest scoring teams in spite of that because of their high OBP.

 

a little bit of a red herring here ...

 

OBP and SLG are not independent. While OBP is a lot more important, they are going to correlate quite a bit. The Sox 4th/19th split is truly unusual - again, everything they are doing indicates this will solve itself. Team is 6th in the league in line drive rate, 4th in hard contact, 4th in doubles.

 

Now the interesting thing is that the Sox are the hardest team in the league to strike out by a mile (the 2nd place Astros are closer to 16th than they are to the Sox). Has there been a connection between contact and trying to lift the ball. I don't know. That is the interesting question to me.

[moonslav59]

a little bit of a red herring here ...

 

OBP and SLG are not independent. While OBP is a lot more important, they are going to correlate quite a bit. The Sox 4th/19th split is truly unusual - again, everything they are doing indicates this will solve itself. Team is 6th in the league in line drive rate, 4th in hard contact, 4th in doubles.

 

Now the interesting thing is that the Sox are the hardest team in the league to strike out by a mile (the 2nd place Astros are closer to 16th than they are to the Sox). Has there been a connection between contact and trying to lift the ball. I don't know. That is the interesting question to me.

 

Good stuff.

 

I think it will all work itself out.

 

We'll be a top 5 scoring team by season's end (hopefully in MLB not just the AL).

[Maxbialystock]

Here's a weird situation:

 

The Rangers are 10th in runs scored but 23rd in OPS.

17th in SLG at .407 (Sox are 19th at .405)

23rd in OBP at .313 (Sox are 7th at .334)

 

Meh. The OPS percentages are bunched up. The 10th best is .755 and the 22d best .728--a difference of .027 or 3.7% (of .728). So anomalies should be expected whenever you try to correlate OPS with runs scored. And don't forget that RISP and GIDP can have a real impact on degrading the ability of a high OPS to actually score runs.