A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Spudboy]

I disagree. I think the Sox still think Pablo can regain a large part of what he used to be. I'm not sure I agree he can, but he got himself in shape and has been given a shot.

 

The sample size of this year is tiny.

 

Look, I hated the Pablo signing from day one. I like the choice of Shaw over Pablo last spring, despite my lack of confidence in Shaw.

 

I've been one of Marco's biggest cheerleaders, and advocated trading Holt for over a year, so Hernandez could get some playing time.

 

That being said, Marco is not really a 3Bman. Now, no doubt, if Pablo continues his current defensive look, it doesn't matter if Marco is a slight negative on defense. There's no way Pablo stays at 3B, if he fields like he did in 2015. I'll be Marco's number one advocate to play 3B once the sample size gets large enough to determine anything definitive. (Speaking of tiny sample sizes, Marco has a worse fldg% at 3B than Pablo this year and also from 2015-2017.

 

UZR/150 (note: Marco's career sample size is just 77 innings)

-22.7 Pablo

-50.5 Marco

 

I'd love nothing more than for Marco to get a chance to shine, but I just don't like the feel of him at 3B. I'm not hoping for Pablo to fail, so Marco will get a chance.

 

I'm not saying money has nothing to do with this choice, but choosing Shaw over Pablo last spring shows it's not ALL ABOUT money.

 

 

 

Okay. Now I understand what you see. And yes, they did pull Pablow last spring. I just think the stakes are higher now. They need production out of that contract at some point and it's year 3. He has done almost completely nothing so far to earn his money.

[moonslav59]

Okay. Now I understand what you see. And yes, they did pull Pablow last spring. I just think the stakes are higher now. They need production out of that contract at some point and it's year 3. He has done almost completely nothing so far to earn his money.

 

I'm not for Pablo having the FT job no matter what. I just see three weeks as a tiny sample size. I realize 2015 was not a small sample size, and his fielding was even scarier than his bat that year.

 

I've never been "for" Pablo having the FT job, even before the disaster that was 2015. I've wanted him platooned ever since that awful day we signed him.

 

While money certainly playes a role in roster decisions and choices of playing time, I think it goes deeper than that. When a team gives a player that kind of money, they have high expectations. I did not understand their reasoning when the signed him. He had been in serious decline offensively and defensively for 3-4 years. His numbers vs LHPs were screaming for a platoon, and like my warnings when we signed CC, I never understood why anyone would pay that sort of money for a platoon player. The weight issue only added to the risk. The only "reward" I could see was based on a hope that maybe-just maybe- he could give us Papiesque playoff heroics as he had done many times with the Giants. I hated the deal then, and I hate it now.

 

He should have been platooned since day one. I doubt there's be all this talk of replacing him at 3B, if his current OPS was .742. Right now, Pablo's .742 OPS vs RHPs is third on the team for that split. His 3 HRs and 9 RBIs in just 43 ABs vs RHPs is reason enough, for me, to not give up on him just yet.

 

I'm a huge fan of defense, and Pablo's D sickens me. It's one reason I have advocated him switching to 1B or DH, but once we moved HRam to 1B instead of Pablo, the die was cast. When we signed Moreland, any such move was put off for a year-barring injury. With Travis in the wings, it might not happen until HRam's deal expires.

 

I'm a huge Marco fan, and I hated the Pablo signing, so I can see why people cannot understand why I'm still on board with keeping Pablo as our starting 3Bman vs RH'd starters for at least a few more weeks. If he continues to struggle on defense, and yes, there are fielding slumps that can be overcome, then maybe he needs to be benched or moved to DH vs RHPs. That's assuming HRam can play 1B, and Moreland is hitting worse than Pablo (enough to overcome the defense we lose at 1B).

 

What a mess we are in! This whole 3B rollercoaster ride has sucked. We haven't had decent play from that position since we forced two SSs to play it (Iggy & Bogey in 2013).

 

I love Marco, but he is never going to be a long term solution at 3B, and his offense is still in question. His sample size is small, but he has sucked at 3B, too. I don't think he should play 3B right now, but he is at the top of my list for the first guy in, if Pablo fails. I have always had Marco ahead of Holt at just about every position he plays.

 

While .233/.277/.465/.742 is not great, it's the thrid best OPS vs RHPs on the team. If you pro-rate Pablo's numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs, his stat line would be...

 

.233 37 110

 

This team is struggling to score runs. These are not numbers you bench.

 

These are:

 

.188/.235/.188/.423 (Pablo's numbers vs LHPs) These numbers are not a fluke. He had a .462 OPS vs lefties in his full 2015 season, including a .142 OPS as a RHB'er.

 

w SFG...

 

2013: .686 vs LHPs

2014: .563 vs LHPs

2015: .462

2017: .423

 

What is the problem here? It's as clear as day: Pablo needs to be platooned.

 

Holt has better career numbers vs LHPs than RHPs, and Marco has shown he does not have large split differentials, so even though he's a LHB, he'd be better than Pablo in a platoon.

 

[Kimmi]

Pablo is so misunderstood.

[Kimmi]

Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Pablo Sandoval.

[FredLynn]

Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Pablo Sandoval.

 

Its not like he doesn't deserve it. Showing up last year in horrible physical condition was insulting to his team-mates, to the Sox management, and to the fans. At least he put in the work this past winter to get in better shape. Lets see if he maintains it. So far it has not resulted in production at the plate or in the field.

[a700hitter]

Its not like he doesn't deserve it. Showing up last year in horrible physical condition was insulting to his team-mates, to the Sox management, and to the fans. At least he put in the work this past winter to get in better shape. Lets see if he maintains it. So far it has not resulted in production at the plate or in the field.

He definitely brought the criticism on himself.

[Station 13]

Pablo is so misunderstood.

 

He is big boned and not actually fat?

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Pablo Sandoval.

 

The numbers are cruel though. With the Red Sox he has a cumulative fWAR of -2.2 and a bWAR of -1.7. 95 million for a guy who has been worse than a replacement player.

[Spudboy]

Pablo is so misunderstood.

 

How so?

[Spudboy]

Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Pablo Sandoval.

 

Not mine presently. I continue to be patient if somewhat skeptical.

 

Anyone signed to that disproportionate contract starts his career in Boston with a target on his back. That is the way Boston fans and media play things.

 

Certainly having his two first years being total flops ( for whatever reason ) has not helped his status. Imagine if Porcello had sucked or had not improved last year? How would people have reacted?

 

Pablow is in control of his own destiny. The quickest way to shut people up is to perform as expected.

 

He has not done that so far.

[Kimmi]

Its not like he doesn't deserve it. Showing up last year in horrible physical condition was insulting to his team-mates, to the Sox management, and to the fans. At least he put in the work this past winter to get in better shape. Lets see if he maintains it. So far it has not resulted in production at the plate or in the field.

 

He deserved it last year, though not the assaults on his character.

 

He has taken last year to heart and worked really hard to get back to where he was. By all accounts, he is a very hard worker. The work may or may not result in on field production, but my goodness, he deserves more than 18 games to find out.

[Kimmi]

He is big boned and not actually fat?

 

We have no idea of why he has a hard time with his weight.

[Kimmi]

The numbers are cruel though. With the Red Sox he has a cumulative fWAR of -2.2 and a bWAR of -1.7. 95 million for a guy who has been worse than a replacement player.

 

They have been terrible. It's a new season though. He might be able to turn it around.

[Kimmi]

Not mine presently. I continue to be patient if somewhat skeptical.

 

Anyone signed to that disproportionate contract starts his career in Boston with a target on his back. That is the way Boston fans and media play things.

 

Certainly having his two first years being total flops ( for whatever reason ) has not helped his status. Imagine if Porcello had sucked or had not improved last year? How would people have reacted?

 

Pablow is in control of his own destiny. The quickest way to shut people up is to perform as expected.

 

He has not done that so far.

 

All I'm saying is that it's too soon to give up on him, large contract or not.

 

Price did not start his career in Boston with a target on his back.

[dgalehouse]

Sox are 10-8. Cleveland is 9-7. Texas -7-10. Toronto - 4-12. Mets- 8-10. Cubs -10-7. Dodgers -8-9. Point is , it is much too early to be concerned and look for scapegoats. It's a long season. Things will work out. Take it easy folks.

[Fisk]

Sox are 10-8. Cleveland is 9-7. Texas -7-10. Toronto - 4-12. Mets- 8-10. Cubs -10-7. Dodgers -8-9. Point is , it is much too early to be concerned and look for scapegoats. It's a long season. Things will work out. Take it easy folks.

 

Recency bias is happening, though the hitting is starting to worry me.

[Kimmi]

Sox are 10-8. Cleveland is 9-7. Texas -7-10. Toronto - 4-12. Mets- 8-10. Cubs -10-7. Dodgers -8-9. Point is , it is much too early to be concerned and look for scapegoats. It's a long season. Things will work out. Take it easy folks.

 

Another voice of reason. Good post.

[a700hitter]

All I'm saying is that it's too soon to give up on him, large contract or not.

 

Price did not start his career in Boston with a target on his back.

Price might disagree with you about this.

[moonslav59]

Patience is a virtue.

 

I'm glad we were patient with JBj and Lackey.

 

Maybe we were too patient with others.

 

The time is right to platoon Pablo, but I'm a long way away from suggesting we bench him FT.

[Fisk]

Patience is a virtue.

 

I'm glad we were patient with JBj and Lackey.

 

Maybe we were too patient with others.

 

The time is right to platoon Pablo, but I'm a long way away from suggesting we bench him FT.

I'm not to far away on benching him.

[moonslav59]

I'm not to far away on benching him.

 

Even vs RHPs?

 

2017 Sox vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

OPS Player BA HR RBI

1.433 Vazquez .556 0 97

.939 Moreland .327 10 53

.893 M Betts .340 12 87

.800 Benintendi .288 10 85

.742 Sandoval .233 41 124

.721 Bogaerts .333 0 73

.665 C Young .268 0 14

.649 Hernandez .278 0 34

.616 Bradley Jr .235 0 68

.615 Pedroia .280 0 60

.555 HanRam .224 0 62

.411 B. Holt .133 0 0

.302 S Leon .115 0 0

 

If we want to improve our offense vs RHPs, we don't bench Pablo (as of now anyway).

 

[Fisk]

Even vs RHPs?

 

2017 Sox vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

OPS Player BA HR RBI

1.433 Vazquez .556 0 97

.939 Moreland .327 10 53

.893 M Betts .340 12 87

.800 Benintendi .288 10 85

.742 Sandoval .233 41 124

.721 Bogaerts .333 0 73

.665 C Young .268 0 14

.649 Hernandez .278 0 34

.616 Bradley Jr .235 0 68

.615 Pedroia .280 0 60

.555 HanRam .224 0 62

.411 B. Holt .133 0 0

.302 S Leon .115 0 0

 

If we want to improve our offense vs RHPs, we don't bench Pablo (as of now anyway).

 

Defense is important those homers are to small a sample size.

[mvp 78]

Defense is important those homers are to small a sample size.

 

But that ignores that his errors are a SSS too.

[Fisk]

But that ignores that his errors are a SSS too.

His fielding has been brutal for a couple years, that homerun pace is way better then he has ever done.

[sk7326]

Another voice of reason. Good post.

 

Teams don't win in April - they can lose it to a degree. Sox are fine.

[moonslav59]

Defense is important those homers are to small a sample size.

 

Of course they are, but people are saying they want him to be be benched or are close to it based on what he has done in this tiny sample size.

 

I am trying to point out that if we just platoon him, we'll get the best out of him while also being able to see what Marco can show us hitting against his split advantage.

 

Benching Pablo because he's not hitting, is ignoring what he has done vs RHPs- not just in this tiny sample size of 2017, but also in 2015 and the years prior.

 

vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

2015: .266 18 66 (.744)

2014: .317 16 81 (.824)

2013: .281 20 99 (.786)

 

Pablo's decline in SF was largely fueled by his dropping off a cliff vs LHPs. He has done pretty well vs righties right on through the tough times.

 

[sk7326]

We have no idea of why he has a hard time with his weight.

 

Partially because he has always been a good athlete - he could get away with it because of natural athleticism. Now he might have to put more effort in on the conditioning end. We'll see what happens - the early returns have been fairly encouraging.

[Fisk]

Of course they are, but people are saying they want him to be be benched or are close to it based on what he has done in this tiny sample size.

 

I am trying to point out that if we just platoon him, we'll get the best out of him while also being able to see what Marco can show us hitting against his split advantage.

 

Benching Pablo because he's not hitting, is ignoring what he has done vs RHPs- not just in this tiny sample size of 2017, but also in 2015 and the years prior.

 

vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

2015: .266 18 66 (.744)

2014: .317 16 81 (.824)

2013: .281 20 99 (.786)

 

Pablo's decline in SF was largely fueled by his dropping off a cliff vs LHPs. He has done pretty well vs righties right on through the tough times.

 

I find his ability to play third base overrides his bat. Am willing to give him a little more time.

[mvp 78]

His fielding has been brutal for a couple years, that homerun pace is way better then he has ever done.

 

And the errors are worse than he's ever done.

[Fisk]

And the errors are worse than he's ever done.

 

His fielding has been a concern for a couple years, it's probably not going to improve.