2017 Rotation Discussion

[Spudboy]

Going into the season, there was not a need for offense.

 

That is your opinion. Not fact.

[bowman]

Losing Ortiz there was a huge void to fill.. There was a need for offense. We didn't fill it. A big three run homer here and there up to now would have us in first by probably 5 games. If Ortiz was in this line up you don't think we would be way better. The guy I expected to step up way more was Bogey. He's been a bust so far this year.

[moonslav59]

I guess I had you confused with another "glass is half empty" "future is doomed" poster. But let's be honest and stop trying to tiptoe around the crux of the issue which is not that you think DD "has pushed it too far", but rather that you think he has sacrificed the future for the present. That is not a strawman, and I think your concern in this regard is at best based on a worst case hypothetical scenario.

 

You claimed I hold the position we have no chance of competing after 2020. That is a constructed position I do not hold and have never stated.

 

Pure "strawman".

 

I do think the odds are strong that DD's recent deals will significantly and adversely affect our extended future (2020 or 2021 and beyond).

 

I have never stated I think we will finish in last place starting in 2020 or 2021, so I have never espoused the "worse case scenario" is most probable.

 

I do think DD has sacrificed a significant part of the future for the present. I'm actually surprised so many here seem to feel our future will be unaffected or at least not significantly seeing us as having a much more difficult task keeping us highly competitive once "the window" closes.

 

I have said it may not end up being a "cliff", but IMO, I think the odds are we will not be highly competitive in 2021 in large part because of the recent deals made by DD. The sheer magnitude of trading away so many good to great prospects just about has to have an adverse affect on the extended future. While it is possible every prospect we traded will suck, I doubt it. We've had a pretty good success rate with our prospects.

 

The other factor is the changing rules with signing FAs and higher penalties for going over the luxury limit, which could possibly include penalties like dropping our draft pick 10 slots or being shut out from signing international FAs for a year.

 

The fact is, it is tougher to build up a farm by having more money. One might look at the changing environment and think it would have been a good time to keep our strong farm to improve our extended future chances at staying highly competitive through the next 6 or 7 years. I was not one to think like that. I wanted to trade some of our prospects in deals like the Sale one or a hypothetical Quintana deal (with 4 years of control). I do think DD went too far and traded too many prospects. You don't. I love the debate. I just don't concoct opinions you don't hold along the way to make my points.

[a700hitter]

You claimed I hold the position we have no chance of competing after 2020. That is a constructed position I do not hold and have never stated.

 

Pure "strawman".

 

 

You were the one who coined the term "Cliff". Does one have a chance when going over a cliff?

[Kimmi]

Losing Ortiz there was a huge void to fill.. There was a need for offense. We didn't fill it. A big three run homer here and there up to now would have us in first by probably 5 games. If Ortiz was in this line up you don't think we would be way better. The guy I expected to step up way more was Bogey. He's been a bust so far this year.

 

Of course the line up would be better if Ortiz was in it. Do you think they should be as bad as they've been without him? We led the league by over 100 runs. Doesn't it seem reasonable to think that even with losing Ortiz, we should still have a top 3 offense in the league? That type of offense should be more than sufficient to get the job done with the improved pitching staff.

[a700hitter]

 

I do think DD has sacrificed a significant part of the future for the present. I'm actually surprised so many here seem to feel our future will be unaffected or at least not significantly seeing us as having a much more difficult task keeping us highly competitive once "the window" closes.

 

 

Stop equivocating. Your initial panic posts did not say anything about sacrificing "part" of the future -- just the future.

[a700hitter]

Of course the line up would be better if Ortiz was in it. Do you think they should be as bad as they've been without him? We led the league by over 100 runs. Doesn't it seem reasonable to think that even with losing Ortiz, we should still have a top 3 offense in the league? That type of offense should be more than sufficient to get the job done with the improved pitching staff.

I though our run production would take a significant hit. I didn't put a number on it, but significant enough that I thought it should have been addressed.

[cp176]

I though our run production would take a significant hit. I didn't put a number on it, but significant enough that I thought it should have been addressed.

 

I felt all along that expecting a team filled with predominantly under sized non home run hitters to repeat in any way what happened last year was an extreme stretch and should not have been expected by anyone. We needed to sign a bigger bat than Moreland - we didn't. We went a different route and hey things ore ok. When people say that these guys are under performing, i say no i don't think so. listen to what Betts has to say and maybe the understanding might seep through. he clearly acknowledges that he may never have another year like last year. He I think I would make an effort to keep - the rest of our young guys (not including Devers), if they can get better offers some place else - so be it. They are all replaceable.

[moonslav59]

We scored about a hundred more runs than any other AL team last year. I projected we'd be top 3 or 4 this year without Papi but with a full season from Beni and likely an overall growth from other young players.

 

Finishing 3rd or 4th in MLB last year would have meant we'd have scored 100 or so runs less.

 

We scored 878 runs last year. Minus 100 and we're at about 778. We're on pace for 772 this year. We're not that far off, but it seems like our offense is worse than I expected. If we keep up this hot streak we may end up well within 100 runs from last year. Maybe the league average has risen, so that's why we look worse than expected.

 

[moonslav59]

I think the hope was that our power house rotation would carry the loss on offense.

 

Right now, we're 9th in runs scored, but we're just 1 run behind 8th place CLE.

 

We may get to 7th (12 runs behind TEX), but it might be hard finishing above 7th.

 

We're 25 runs behind 6th place AZ, 28 behind LAD and 41 behind 4th place NYY.

[Larry Cook]

I think the hope was that our power house rotation would carry the loss on offense.

 

Right now, we're 9th in runs scored, but we're just 1 run behind 8th place CLE.

 

We may get to 7th (12 runs behind TEX), but it might be hard finishing above 7th.

 

We're 25 runs behind 6th place AZ, 28 behind LAD and 41 behind 4th place NYY.

 

The number of runs is not as important as timely hitting.

[Bellhorn04]

The number of runs is not as important as timely hitting.

 

Now you're into the 'clutch hitting' argument, which you can't possibly win.

[Nick]

We'll have Devers through 2023.

We'll have Beni through 2022.

We'll have Price through 2022.

We'll have Pedroia throuh 2021.

We'll have E Rod through 2021.

 

I think we'll extend both Pom and Sale.

 

$20M on Porcello will free up for 2020. Same goes for Hanley and Pablo, thus freeing up $60M between 3 players.

 

Looks to me like we'll have money to spend. We should trade Xander and even Betts if they look to walk. (say with 2 years of control left)

Edited August 5, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

We should trade Xander and even Betts if they look to walk. (say with 2 years of control left)

 

That means trading Bogey this winter and Betts next winter.

 

It's hard to trade these guys for ML talent. Teams looking to get these guys will likely look to trade away prospects.

 

Maybe a 3 team deal could be worked out, but I just don't see us trading these guys during the "window". We could get comp picks and just use their big money to sign someone else.

[Station 13]

No trading any of the Bs.

[moonslav59]

$20M on Porcello will free up for 2020. Same goes for Hanley and Pablo, thus freeing up $60M between 3 players.

 

Looks to me like we'll have money to spend.

 

Arb raises are going to be enormous, but we certainly will have some money to spend to keep those we want the most.

 

I'm also fairly confident that once we have reset the luxury tax, Henry won't mind going over for a few years in a row. We'll have enough to spend on Sale & Betts, even if they both get over $30M a year, but it might be tough filling out the rest of our roster with lots of players making mid-level or big money.

 

[Emp9]

Of course the line up would be better if Ortiz was in it. Do you think they should be as bad as they've been without him? We led the league by over 100 runs. Doesn't it seem reasonable to think that even with losing Ortiz, we should still have a top 3 offense in the league? That type of offense should be more than sufficient to get the job done with the improved pitching staff.

 

No, it's pretty easy actually. Protection does exist.

[moonslav59]

No, it's pretty easy actually. Protection does exist.

 

Or. it's just as simple as getting a big boost by replacing the 2017 Moreland with the 2016 Ortiz.

 

Even if nobody else got better by the replacement, we'd be way better with Papi's numbers instead of Moreland's.

[Kimmi]

The number of runs is not as important as timely hitting.

 

The number of runs is not as important as the run differential. A team can afford to score fewer runs if they have a pitching staff that allows fewer runs.

[Kimmi]

No, it's pretty easy actually. Protection does exist.

 

I respectfully disagree, and I'll leave it at that.

[bowman]

Way better. Can you imagine how many games the 78 sox would have won with this pitching staff. Scary..

[bowman]

With Ortiz in the lineup and putting up last years numbers, we would be running away with it. The dry spells would have been cut in half at least. Thats assuming he put last years numbers up which would have been tough to do... Worst case, with Papi, we would be up by 7 or 8 right now..

[BstHcpr]

No, it's pretty easy actually. Protection does exist.

 

You're saying protection exists, because pitchers allow batters in front of Ortiz to reach more often? Wouldn't that strategy have the exact opposite of the outcome you'd want?

[moonslav59]

You're saying protection exists, because pitchers allow batters in front of Ortiz to reach more often? Wouldn't that strategy have the exact opposite of the outcome you'd want?

 

And after Papi HRs, they let those after him get on base or hit back-to-back HRs.

 

It makes total sense.

[a700hitter]

You're saying protection exists, because pitchers allow batters in front of Ortiz to reach more often? Wouldn't that strategy have the exact opposite of the outcome you'd want?

This statement makes no sense to me.

[BstHcpr]

This statement makes no sense to me.

 

Why would a batter perform better because of the batter in the on deck circle?

[moonslav59]

Why would a batter perform better because of the batter in the on deck circle?

 

I remember a clown from "that other site" once claimed Ellsbury had his big year because Papi was batting 2 to 3 slots away.

 

(It didn't help explain his bad years, when he had even more "protection".)

[a700hitter]

Why would a batter perform better because of the batter in the on deck circle?

If you don't understand, I am not going to try to convince you.

[BstHcpr]

If you don't understand, I am not going to try to convince you.

 

I get it. If it's true, it's a terrible strategy.

[a700hitter]

I get it. If it's true, it's a terrible strategy.

What strategy? The strategy isn't to put the batter on base in front of the hitter behind them. The result is just part of the dynamics of the game.