2017 Rotation Discussion

[Kimmi]

The funny thing is, before the two losses to the O's, people seemed optimistic about the direction of the team.

 

Just a puny two game sample size seems to change everything.

 

It doesn't take much turn people's opinions one way or the other about the team or about individual players.

 

It's a long season. Things can and probably will look a lot different at the end of the season than they do now.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if it's because I'm getting old or what, but I don't have the patience I once did and I do tend to be more reactionary to recent results.

[Emp9]

I think everyone, including myself, are just really f***ing tired of losing to the O's this season. Also, we're 11-13 vs AL East opponents right now. Not great.

[moonslav59]

I hate losing, too, but I tend to take the "long view".

 

Too many times I've seen the Sox look so awful for short and long stretches, only to then see them turn things around and look like champions for long stretches.

 

Almost all seasons, including championship ones, have ups and downs. Every year we won a ring, there were moments when the fan base was down on the team. I don't understand why it's so hard for some people to remember those times and those turn-arounds and at least try to stop being so jumpy over a couple or handful of bad games.

 

We've had our $30+M pitcher out almost all season, we lost out 5/6 starter (Wright) and have been without our #2 and #3 RP'ers all year. We've dealt with nagging injuries, illnesses, bereavement leaves, and our two best utility guys (Holt & Marco) probably lost for the whole season. Yet, we're currently the top wild card team and just 3 games behind a Yankee team seemingly playing over their heads.

 

I like where we are right now, assuming the injury bug has completed its devastation of our roster.

 

A strong Price and returning ERod, Smith and/or Thornburg should be enough for us to pass the Yanks and keep our distance from other AL East rivals.

[Emp9]

I hate losing, too, but I tend to take the "long view".

 

Too many times I've seen the Sox look so awful for short and long stretches, only to then see them turn things around and look like champions for long stretches.

 

Almost all seasons, including championship ones, have ups and downs. Every year we won a ring, there were moments when the fan base was down on the team. I don't understand why it's so hard for some people to remember those times and those turn-arounds and at least try to stop being so jumpy over a couple or handful of bad games.

 

We've had our $30+M pitcher out almost all season, we lost out 5/6 starter (Wright) and have been without our #2 and #3 RP'ers all year. We've dealt with nagging injuries, illnesses, bereavement leaves, and our two best utility guys (Holt & Marco) probably lost for the whole season. Yet, we're currently the top wild card team and just 3 games behind a Yankee team seemingly playing over their heads.

 

I like where we are right now, assuming the injury bug has completed its devastation of our roster.

 

A strong Price and returning ERod, Smith and/or Thornburg should be enough for us to pass the Yanks and keep our distance from other AL East rivals.

 

I agree, there's plenty of time left yet. I'm usually pretty patient and hopeful within reason. I was pretty hopeful about Price coming back strong and that seems to have turned out well judging by last night. We start playing better within our division I'll be happy. If we win today vs the O's, we'll be 6-7 vs them and hopefully we'll be a better team next time we face them (end of August?). Last season we were 11-8 (RS: 102 RA: 82) against the O's and I hope we keep it close to that and maybe beat the hell out of another AL east foe to make up the difference if need be. I do feel like today is a must win day though.

[moonslav59]

I agree, there's plenty of time left yet. I'm usually pretty patient and hopeful within reason. I was pretty hopeful about Price coming back strong and that seems to have turned out well judging by last night. We start playing better within our division I'll be happy. If we win today vs the O's, we'll be 6-7 vs them and hopefully we'll be a better team next time we face them (end of August?). Last season we were 11-8 (RS: 102 RA: 82) against the O's and I hope we keep it close to that and maybe beat the hell out of another AL east foe to make up the difference if need be. I do feel like today is a must win day though.

 

While I think today could be a big game and maybe a starting point of turning around a s0-s0 season, I never feel like any game is must win, unless it's a near elimination game.

[Kimmi]

I think everyone, including myself, are just really f***ing tired of losing to the O's this season. Also, we're 11-13 vs AL East opponents right now. Not great.

 

I am most definitely tired of losing to the Os and their annoying announcers make it 1000 times worse. I am very reactionary while I'm watching the games, but then I calm down and the rational side of me takes over.

[Kimmi]

While I think today could be a big game and maybe a starting point of turning around a s0-s0 season, I never feel like any game is must win, unless it's a near elimination game.

 

Now it would be nice if we could take at least 2 of 3 from the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

Now it would be nice if we could take at least 2 of 3 from the Yankees.

 

We're going to sweep the bastahds!

[Nick]

We're going to sweep the bastahds![/bYankees

 

Yankees are one of only 3 teams to have used 5 starting pitcher this year. Their starting pitchers have been healthy.

[sk7326]

Lots of injuries. Seems like bad juju.

 

Nothing says lost season like the 3rd best record in the AL

[Fan_since_Boggs]

On a related note, Johnson left the game last night with a calf injury of some sort.

 

No word yet on his status.

 

Good news on Johnson:

 

Red Sox depth starter Brian Johnson was examined this morning after leaving his Triple-A Pawtucket start Saturday because of cramping in the hamstring.

 

It's nothing more serious than cramping.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/06/brian_johnson_boston_red_sox_d_2.html

[moonslav59]

We're going to sweep the bastahds![/bYankees

 

Yankees are one of only 3 teams to have used 5 starting pitcher this year. Their starting pitchers have been healthy.

 

If you look at recent Red Sox history, you'll find a strong correlation between our starting 4 or 5 all getting over 25 starts and winning championships (or not).

[devildavid]

I hope Porcello can start to more closely approximate his Cy Young season. He is back to giving up too many hits as has been the case much of his career. It's not always fatal if you can scatter the hits and not give up too many long balls, but even his HR rate is kind of high for him so far. He is looking more like the 2015 version than 2016 one. Edited June 5, 2017 by devildavid

[moonslav59]

I hope Porcello can start to more closely approximate his Cy Young season. He is back to giving up too many hits as has been the case much of his career. It's not always fatal if you can scatter the hits and not give up too many long balls, but even his HR rate is kind of high for him so far. He is looking more the the 2015 version than 2016 one.

 

I'm hopeful he ends up more like 2016, or at least something better than 2015...like his career norm.

[sk7326]

I hope Porcello can start to more closely approximate his Cy Young season. He is back to giving up too many hits as has been the case much of his career. It's not always fatal if you can scatter the hits and not give up too many long balls, but even his HR rate is kind of high for him so far. He is looking more the the 2015 version than 2016 one.

 

This is probably a slightly worse version of the guy that he likely is. But he is getting deep into starts - and giving them a chance. 2015 he was genuinely terrible - that's not this year.

[a700hitter]

This is probably a slightly worse version of the guy that he likely is. But he is getting deep into starts - and giving them a chance. 2015 he was genuinely terrible - that's not this year.

2015 and 2016 were opposite extremes. He is somewhere in the middle of that spectrum. He is an effective innings eater who keeps his team in most of his games.

[S5Dewey]

2015 and 2016 were opposite extremes. He is somewhere in the middle of that spectrum. He is an effective innings eater who keeps his team in most of his games.

 

I thought his CY award was an aberration, but I'll take it! I now expect 12-15 W's from him with a WHIP of ~1.2 - 1.3 and an ERA of

[a700hitter]

I thought his CY award was an aberration, but I'll take it! I now expect 12-15 W's from him with a WHIP of ~1.2 - 1.3 and an ERA of Not great value for a #3, but not awful if he is a top #3.

[S5Dewey]

Not great value for a #3, but not awful if he is a top #3.

 

Ya. That's the real downside to being in the AL East. Our #3 has to be better than the #3 of Oakland, the Phils, or the Reds, and we have to pay for it accordingly.

[mvp 78]

Ya. That's the real downside to being in the AL East. Our #3 has to be better than the #3 of Oakland, the Phils, or the Reds, and we have to pay for it accordingly.

 

Not true, the entire league competes for the same WC spots. All divisions have up and down years. I don't think the Sox would run away with the division every year if they were out west. Plus, you're playing for the post season. If you aren't good enough to win the AL East or WC in the regular season, you weren't going to win the WS either.

[S5Dewey]

Not true, the entire league competes for the same WC spots. All divisions have up and down years. I don't think the Sox would run away with the division every year if they were out west. Plus, you're playing for the post season. If you aren't good enough to win the AL East or WC in the regular season, you weren't going to win the WS either.

 

Huh? The ALE is the toughest division in baseball. With playoff spots decided by a game or two a team that thinks it's a contender needs and will pay for a #3 pitcher that would be a #2 on a weaker team.

And again, when/if the Sox make the playoffs they're going to want a solid #3 - so they have to pay for it.

[a700hitter]

Not true, the entire league competes for the same WC spots. All divisions have up and down years. I don't think the Sox would run away with the division every year if they were out west. Plus, you're playing for the post season. If you aren't good enough to win the AL East or WC in the regular season, you weren't going to win the WS either.

Under the 1 game elimination format for WC teams, it is much more important to win your division. I realize that the SF Giants went all the way as the WC, but the path to going to the WS is much easier if you win your division.

[mvp 78]

Huh? The ALE is the toughest division in baseball. With playoff spots decided by a game or two a team that thinks it's a contender needs and will pay for a #3 pitcher that would be a #2 on a weaker team.

And again, when/if the Sox make the playoffs they're going to want a solid #3 - so they have to pay for it.

 

There is something known as the Wild Card that mitigates the division you are in. In 04, the Sox won the WC and the WS. Teams that aren't good enough to win the WC aren't good enough to win a WS. The toughness of the division is overstated.

 

I'd also assert that the ALE isn't always the toughest division in baseball. Right now, I'd say the NL West is a far tougher division.

[mvp 78]

Under the 1 game elimination format for WC teams, it is much more important to win your division. I realize that the SF Giants went all the way as the WC, but the path to going to the WS is much easier if you win your division.

 

It's "important" but it's not an end all be all.

 

The path to winning the WS is easier if you have a great team. Great teams typically win their divisions.

[S5Dewey]

Nobody is going to deny that a better team has a better chance of beating a weaker team. But they won't do it every time.

 

In fact, the argument can be made that a WC team that wins the WS is the better team. That WC team has to have fought their way through more games against allegedly better opponents to get there.

 

IMO the fact that a team that didn't win their division has won the WS 25% of the time (5 times in 20 years) indicates how relatively insignificant winning the division is. If you believe that the best teams have won their division then the results should be heavily weighted toward one of those division winners winning the WS, however, 25% of the time a WC team has won it - exactly the same percentage as if the winner had been drawn from a hat each year during those 20 years.

[mvp 78]

Nobody is going to deny that a better team has a better chance of beating a weaker team. But they won't do it every time.

 

In fact, the argument can be made that a WC team that wins the WS is the better team. That WC team has to have fought their way through more games against allegedly better opponents to get there.

 

IMO the fact that a team that didn't win their division has won the WS 25% of the time (5 times in 20 years) indicates how relatively insignificant winning the division is. If you believe that the best teams have won their division then the results should be heavily weighted toward one of those division winners winning the WS, however, 25% of the time a WC team has won it - exactly the same percentage as if the winner had been drawn from a hat each year during those 20 years.

 

If you're not good enough to win the division, you're most likely not good enough to win a WS.

[S5Dewey]

If you're not good enough to win the division, you're most likely not good enough to win a WS.

 

...and yet 25% of the time it happens!

 

Would you like to tell that to us Red Sox fans after 2004?

[mvp 78]

...and yet 25% of the time it happens!

 

Would you like to tell that to us Red Sox fans after 2004?

 

75% of the time, the WC teams don't win the WS. WC teams are most likely not going to win the WS.

 

75% of the time means that it's heavily weighted that a division winner will win the WS.

[a700hitter]

...and yet 25% of the time it happens!

 

Would you like to tell that to us Red Sox fans after 2004?

Under the 2004 format, there was little disadvantage to being a wild card team.