2017 Rotation Discussion

[S5Dewey]

As assets they were put to good use to get Sale, and that did make the team better.

 

And that makes more sense to me than having them hang around in Pawtucket so we can pat ourselves on the back about how good our farm system is.

 

Given the failure rate of prospects I'll trade a prospect for an equally rated starting pitcher ever time, That means that yes, in 2013 ago I'd have traded Mookie Betts for Madison Bumgarner. In fact, I'd trade Benintendi for Bumgarner tomorrow!

[Nick]

And that makes more sense to me than having them hang around in Pawtucket so we can pat ourselves on the back about how good our farm system is.

 

Given the failure rate of prospects I'll trade a prospect for an equally rated starting pitcher ever time, That means that yes, in 2013 ago I'd have traded Mookie Betts for Madison Bumgarner. In fact, I'd trade Benintendi for Bumgarner tomorrow!

 

I agree......It's really unrealistic to think you can develop entire starting unit through the draft. It's a fact that more prospects fail than succeed. Sometimes it's best to trade away a prospect when he's 'hot'.

 

Our opportunity to trade away Owens and Johnson for some value in return has come and gone.

 

It remains to be seen how Espinoza turns out.

 

Your farm system is at the mercy of major league ball club.

 

You develop a player to fill a need on the big league club.

You develop a player to trade for a player that fills a need on the big league club.

You develop a player and trade for a younger player because his position is blocked on the big league club.

 

Assuming our injured pitchers all return, our biggest concern seems to be at 3B.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Yes we have very good young pitching right now, but the idea of developing it is so we don't have to overpay for it.

 

Correct.

 

And now we are pretty much maxed out both financially and prospect-wise.

 

Where is our next great team coming from?

[Kimmi]

I understand and certainly respect this point of view. Somewhere along the line you really are going get what you pay for. i don't really care where the pitching comes from as long as we have it. Based on the historical track record of the franchise in general, they are going to get it. if we overpay for something, I hope it is pitching. We all know that we will be overpaying for something. good thing we can afford it.

 

I love all of our players, but personally, I get more joy and satisfaction from watching our home grown players. I don't like the idea of having a bunch of expensive free agents on our team.

[Kimmi]

I agree......It's really unrealistic to think you can develop entire starting unit through the draft. It's a fact that more prospects fail than succeed. Sometimes it's best to trade away a prospect when he's 'hot'.

 

Our opportunity to trade away Owens and Johnson for some value in return has come and gone.

 

It remains to be seen how Espinoza turns out.

 

Your farm system is at the mercy of major league ball club.

 

You develop a player to fill a need on the big league club.

You develop a player to trade for a player that fills a need on the big league club.

You develop a player and trade for a younger player because his position is blocked on the big league club.

 

Assuming our injured pitchers all return, our biggest concern seems to be at 3B.

 

No one has ever suggested that we could field a team entirely of home grown players. I realize that one of the reasons for building a strong farm is to use prospects to fill the holes.

 

My beef is that Dombrowski went to the extreme. It probably shouldn't bother me that he raped a farm system that he didn't develop, but that irks me even more. If Ben had stayed around and made the same trades that Dombrowski made, I would not be as upset.

[mvp 78]

Correct.

 

And now we are pretty much maxed out both financially and prospect-wise.

 

Where is our next great team coming from?

 

The Sox don't have a great history of developing top pitching talent.

 

The 2004 rotation included no homegrown players (unless you count Schilling).

 

The 2007 rotation included Lester (pitched in 12 games all season) and Paplebon as closer.

 

The 2013 rotation included Lester and Clay.

 

Our next great team is going to come from a mix of homegrown players, trades and smart FA signings as they all have.

[Hugh2]

No one has ever suggested that we could field a team entirely of home grown players. I realize that one of the reasons for building a strong farm is to use prospects to fill the holes.

 

My beef is that Dombrowski went to the extreme. It probably shouldn't bother me that he raped a farm system that he didn't develop, but that irks me even more. If Ben had stayed around and made the same trades that Dombrowski made, I would not be as upset.

 

This, part of the benefits of having a strong farm is the ability to make blockbuster trades and to fill in holes. Those of us who are unhappy with the depletion of the farm system are more worried with the the amount of talent he's stripped from it. It was very extreme, it fits the seek satisfaction now model. We can still be Red Sox fans, cheer for this team, and speculate on the future.

[Hugh2]

And that makes more sense to me than having them hang around in Pawtucket so we can pat ourselves on the back about how good our farm system is.

 

Given the failure rate of prospects I'll trade a prospect for an equally rated starting pitcher ever time, That means that yes, in 2013 ago I'd have traded Mookie Betts for Madison Bumgarner. In fact, I'd trade Benintendi for Bumgarner tomorrow!

 

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. If they were still in the minors you'd probably have to send Betts and Benintendi to get Bumgarner. No harm in that trade to better your team and go on a playoff run but too much of that philosophy will have adverse results down the road.

[moonslav59]

The Sox don't have a great history of developing top pitching talent.

 

The 2004 rotation included no homegrown players (unless you count Schilling).

 

The 2007 rotation included Lester (pitched in 12 games all season) and Paplebon as closer.

 

The 2013 rotation included Lester and Clay.

 

Our next great team is going to come from a mix of homegrown players, trades and smart FA signings as they all have.

 

Many of our great players came in trades involving highly touted pitching prospects. Schilling, Beckett, AGon and many many more.

[mvp 78]

Many of our great players came in trades involving highly touted pitching prospects. Schilling, Beckett, AGon and many many more.

 

So then maybe Sale is part of our next great team?

[Fisk]

Basically the reason why we signed Price and traded for Sale, Kimbrel and Smith was the great job with our position prospects. The core we had is ready to win now. While our best pitching prospects were in the low minors had to align them up.

[mvp 78]

When JBJ, Betts, Xander and Beni come up for new contracts, WHY DON'T WE JUST RE-SIGN THEM?!?!?

[Fisk]

When JBJ, Betts, Xander and Beni come up for new contracts, WHY DON'T WE JUST RE-SIGN THEM?!?!?

 

Great idea. We probably will.

[jacksonianmarch]

Because they're going to be VERY expensive and signing all of them will hamstring the sox. Bogey, Betts and Bradley all have the potential to be $20+ mil per annum players. Currently, they're making what, $7 mil total? With Price and Pedey still on the books and likely past their prime, you're going to be saddled with over $100 mil annual salary with 5 players and 2 will be on their last legs professionally

[Fisk]

Depends on how they stagger them out and if any hometown discounts, the other thing to look at is they are so young they will just be hitting there prime when they become free agents. Except for JBJ.

[mvp 78]

Because they're going to be VERY expensive and signing all of them will hamstring the sox. Bogey, Betts and Bradley all have the potential to be $20+ mil per annum players. Currently, they're making what, $7 mil total? With Price and Pedey (trade Pedroia) still on the books and likely past their prime, you're going to be saddled with over $100 mil annual salary with 5 players and 2 will be on their last legs professionally

 

At least they'd be worth the $$$ rather than guys like Hanley and Pablo. How about they just sign 3 of 4 and trade the other? Neither Price nor Pedroia will be on the team in 2022, imo.

[moonslav59]

So then maybe Sale is part of our next great team?

 

He already is part of the current great team.

 

I love the trade...always have. I've been begging for a trade like this for years.

[Kimmi]

The Sox don't have a great history of developing top pitching talent.

 

The 2004 rotation included no homegrown players (unless you count Schilling).

 

The 2007 rotation included Lester (pitched in 12 games all season) and Paplebon as closer.

 

The 2013 rotation included Lester and Clay.

 

Our next great team is going to come from a mix of homegrown players, trades and smart FA signings as they all have.

 

You have to start somewhere. I think the Sox were legitimately trying to head in that direction.

 

Regardless, the farm was strong and the team had/has several homegrown players on it.

 

You can't trade away all of your prospects.

[Kimmi]

This, part of the benefits of having a strong farm is the ability to make blockbuster trades and to fill in holes. Those of us who are unhappy with the depletion of the farm system are more worried with the the amount of talent he's stripped from it. It was very extreme, it fits the seek satisfaction now model. We can still be Red Sox fans, cheer for this team, and speculate on the future.

 

Thank you for this post.

[Kimmi]

When JBJ, Betts, Xander and Beni come up for new contracts, WHY DON'T WE JUST RE-SIGN THEM?!?!?

 

The long term philosophy is to have young replacements ready to take over by the time these guys hit free agency, in order to control costs.

[cp176]

I don't want to have to give up the Moncadas, Kopechs, Espinozas and Margots to get it, that's all I'm saying. If we can develop within we hold onto all those prospects.

 

Are there any teams out there who are dong it all based solely on home grown talent and competing at the highest level year in year out? If it was possible in this day and age, it would be great. It doesn't look like it is. If the Red Sox stay young and highly competitive year in and year out through a combination of homegrown talent, free agency, and trades, I'm ok with that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hometown discounts are a fallacy. Guys take discounts in pre-arb years. All of your guys aside from Betts are past their pre-arb years

[Nick]

Because they're going to be VERY expensive and signing all of them will hamstring the sox. Bogey, Betts and Bradley all have the potential to be $20+ mil per annum players. Currently, they're making what, $7 mil total? With Price and Pedey still on the books and likely past their prime, you're going to be saddled with over $100 mil annual salary with 5 players and 2 will be on their last legs professionally

 

Pedey's AAV of $13.75M looks reasonable. If we win couple of world series I can see him retiring. When his body wears out, I think he's gone. Price is a different story. $31M will look bigger each year.

 

Scary thing is Sale, Porcello, Xander and Bradley all become FA at the same time, Betts the following year.

[Fisk]

Hometown discounts are a fallacy. Guys take discounts in pre-arb years. All of your guys aside from Betts are past their pre-arb years

The only one past his pre Arb year is Boegarts. Hometown discounts is far from a fallacy happens all the time.

[Fisk]

Pedey's AAV of $13.75M looks reasonable. If we win couple of world series I can see him retiring. When his body wears out, I think he's gone. Price is a different story. $31M will look bigger each year.

 

Scary thing is Sale, Porcello, Xander and Bradley all become FA at the same time, Betts the following year.

 

Bradley is one year after them.

[Kimmi]

Pedey's AAV of $13.75M looks reasonable. If we win couple of world series I can see him retiring. When his body wears out, I think he's gone. Price is a different story. $31M will look bigger each year.

 

Scary thing is Sale, Porcello, Xander and Bradley all become FA at the same time, Betts the following year.

 

That is scary indeed. Falling of a cliff scary!

[Kimmi]

It's ironic that our rotation was supposed to be our strength this year. So far, outside of Sale, that has not been the case.

 

Christopher Smith‏Verified account @SmittyOnMLB 3h3 hours ago

 

Subtract Chris Sale's two starts (2 runs, 14 2/3 innings) and the rest of the Red Sox rotation has posted a 7.24 ERA.

 

Red Sox starters rank 28th in starter ERA (5.66). Tied for 25th in WHIP (1.40). Their .280 BAA is tied for the worst in the majors.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 5h5 hours ago

 

Porcello's 1st 3 starts last year were pretty similar to this year. Jays torched him with homers. 19.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 5 HR, 24 K, 3 BB

[Maxbialystock]

It's ironic that our rotation was supposed to be our strength this year. So far, outside of Sale, that has not been the case.

 

Christopher Smith‏Verified account @SmittyOnMLB 3h3 hours ago

 

Subtract Chris Sale's two starts (2 runs, 14 2/3 innings) and the rest of the Red Sox rotation has posted a 7.24 ERA.

 

Red Sox starters rank 28th in starter ERA (5.66). Tied for 25th in WHIP (1.40). Their .280 BAA is tied for the worst in the majors.

 

Finally a fact or two inserted inserted into this unreal thread. Right now the rotation stinks, its one saving grace that its early in the season and one can hope for a recovery. Meanwhile, Wright's knuckler isn't, porcello's fastball is a gopher ball, ERod is still ERod, $30M/year Price is a world class flameout, and Pomeranz, shockinlgly, is leading the Masters after 4 holes--lots of luck with that.

 

Sales alone seems able to start and finish a game, finish being defined as getting to the 7th inning.

 

Now we see the wisdom of hanging onto Holt, of whom I am no fan, but right now we need about 10 guys in the bullpen to make up for our weak starters. So the question is, can he also catch so we can send Leon or Vazquez down for another arm?

[moonslav59]

Subtract Chris Sale's two starts (2 runs, 14 2/3 innings) and the rest of the Red Sox rotation has posted a 7.24 ERA.

 

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers?

 

 

Our rotation is going to be fine.