Opening day batting order?

[Emp9]

Moon I'd leave your RHPs lineup the way it is. The minor adjustment I've made on your LHPs lineup is my compromise to Kimmi.

 

The line-ups I listed were not my choices, but they look pretty good. They were a response to Kimmi's "optimal line-up" comment. The line-up were based on the broad assumption that the numbers I provided (an average between overall and lefty-righty splits over the past 2 years combined with adjustments upward made to HanRam and Pablo due to their 2015 numbers) were what were to be used. The assumption, which of course can never be made confidently, was that the numbers I listed were what a manager would go by to construct a line-up. I basically put the two best OBP guys up 1-2 and then put players in order of OPS from best to worst in the 3 to 9 slots.

 

My own line-up template might look like this:

 

Vs RHPs:

LF Beni

2B Pedey

RF Betts

DH Ramirez

CF JBJ

SS Bogey

3B Sandy

1B Moreland

C Leon

(I might flip Sandy & Bogey, if Sandy shows life.)

 

vs LHPs (until Beni shows he can hit lefties well enough to lead off...):

SS Bogey

2B Pedey

RF Betts

1B Ramirez

DH Young

LF Beni

CF JBJ

3B Rutledge (or Holt)

C Leon

 

If Moreland can show he can hit lefties better than JBJ (or even Beni), I might keep HanRam at DH vs LHPs and play Young in LF and Beni in CF.

 

I understood, although I don't think starting with OBP is some new idea. If XB starts showing more power (which I think may be possible because both XB and Betts have started showing signs of power by going the other way a bit more last season), that might throw a monkey wrench in your lineup order. Of course, that wouldn't be a bad thing.

[sk7326]

2B - Pedroia

LF - Benintendi

RF - Betts

SS - Bogaerts

1B/DH - Ramirez

1B/DH - Young/Moreland

3B - Sandoval

C - Somebody

CF - Bradley

 

I like having baserunners on when the lineup turns.

[User Name]

XB 4th? You, sir, like to live dangerously.

[sk7326]

XB 4th? You, sir, like to live dangerously.

 

i don't have a ton of conviction with the 3 through 5 spots ...

 

My larger conviction is Benintendi by midway in the season being this team's best "pure hitter" from the approach persepctive - like an Allen Craig before his body fell to pieces

[User Name]

I like Panda second, Benintendi third and Betts fourth.

[mvp 78]

I like Panda second, Benintendi third and Betts fourth.

 

You don't post enough.

[Fisk]

I like Panda second, Benintendi third and Betts fourth.

 

I would put Boegarts second, Beni third and Betts fourth. Pablo doesn't walk enough for me to bat him second. Then Hanley 5, Pablo, Moreland, catcher , and JBJ ninth, that's where he has had the most success.

[Kimmi]

I think it's great idea if you want your #3 hitter to lead the league in BBs and if he's lucky he'll have as many hits as that pitcher that hits after him. Goody goody. Naw, in all seriousness I just don't buy it. Still sounds like 16 games lost not 16 runs lost to me. More over it's a theory that will never see a practice. I do however think there are ways to get creative with a lineup. I like the idea of using the 9th spot as a sorta' second leadoff hitter if said team has two lead-off(-ish) type of players ( good OBP, good speed). Although, I'm pretty sure I thought of that idea before those guys did. I've thought plenty about trying to replicate the top of the order for further down in the order as much as resources allow, as long as it doesn't take away from the real top of the order. L/R still plays in my book because of certain matchups and the importance of L/R spacing increases as the game goes on when relievers are called. I'd still rather pinch hit and fail than not pinch hit and fail. Protection is overrated? You're assuming I'm over-rating it. But, It's not always about seeing "better" pitches, sometimes it's about seeing a pitch to begin with.

 

It's cool that you don't buy it. Most people don't.

 

I disagree with putting a good OBP guy in the #9 hole, but I do agree with you about the L/R thing. The consensus is that managers can gain more of an advantage by splitting the lefties and righties in the line up than he can by putting batters into their 'prototypical' spots.

 

As far as line up protection goes, the pitchers do tend to pitch differently to batters who are protected versus not protected, but the batter's offensive output is no better or worse.

[Kimmi]

I think the whole "comfort" thing is overblown.

 

I do think some players could be affected by being jerked around wildly, but minor movements or lefty-righty slot swaps are not as upsetting as many seem to feel it is.

 

Perhaps the idea of 'comfort' is overblown, but we are always hearing about how baseball players are such creatures of habit and about how superstitious they are. I tend to think that they'd prefer consistency in a lineup up rather than being shuffled around regularly. That's just my opinion, of course.

 

Either way, the 'tweaking' of the line up that fans often talk about has such little effect on the overall team scoring that, by comparison, comfort level is probably not overblown.

[Kimmi]

One thing that makes constructing an "optimal line-up" is deciding what data or combination of data to use. Do you use strict overall numbers (career, last year, last 2-3 years?), or lefty righty splits, or batter vs specific pitcher numbers (with significant sample sizes involved, which is rare), or numerous other factors including hot or cold streaks. It's easy to conclude that every person views which of these is more important differently.

 

Batting order is another topic that has been researched from virtually every angle, including using different stats and right lefty splits. OBP remains the biggest single factor, followed by slugging.

 

As far as the optimal line up goes, the 3 best hitters should hit 1,2, and 4. I know you want the best hitter in the 3 spot, but that is not where the best hitter should bat.

 

The biggest mistake that managers make in constructing their line ups is in undervaluing the #2 spot.

[User Name]

Which is why I like Pablo in the two spot versus righties.

[oldtimer]

Batting order is another topic that has been researched from virtually every angle, including using different stats and right lefty splits. OBP remains the biggest single factor, followed by slugging.

 

As far as the optimal line up goes, the 3 best hitters should hit 1,2, and 4. I know you want the best hitter in the 3 spot, but that is not where the best hitter should bat.

 

The biggest mistake that managers make in constructing their line ups is in undervaluing the #2 spot.

 

Having hitters who can also run the bases well up early in the order may also put pressure on the pitcher. We have two ot those in Betts and Beni. I'd like to see both of them up in the 1 through 4 slotss and expect that to be the case.

[moonslav59]

The biggest mistake that managers make in constructing their line ups is in undervaluing the #2 spot.

 

The old traditional "put a player that makes contact up second" never made that much sense to me.

 

Just give me more high OBP.

 

[moonslav59]

Having hitters who can also run the bases well up early in the order may also put pressure on the pitcher. We have two ot those in Betts and Beni. I'd like to see both of them up in the 1 through 4 slotss and expect that to be the case.

 

I'm super excited to see what Beni can do for us. I'm not prepared to lobby for him to be in the top 4 slots vs LHPs, but I'm fine with the idea vs righties.

[Spudboy]

Oye. Now we can all sit back and get the lecture about how disruptive base runners are not really much of a factor.

[User Name]

Over his career, Fat Pablo has a .352 OBP vs righties. Bogaerts sits at .321. Food for thought.

[moonslav59]

Over his career, Fat Pablo has a .352 OBP vs righties. Bogaerts sits at .321. Food for thought.

 

Context. Both Bogey and JBJ are on the rise, so counting their career numbers may overemphasize their slower starts to their career, while Pablo has been on one of MLB's most constant and sharp declines.

 

Over the last 2 years, JBJ has a .348 OBP vs RHP and Bogey .339. I agree with not putting Bogey in the top 4 or 5 vs RHPs, and I don't think putting Pablo up 2nd is a bad idea. I just think we can do better.

 

Pablo has a .341 OBP since 2012 but .314 since 2015.

 

I still think Beni-Pedey are best 1-2 vs RHPs.

[User Name]

I like Panda second so you can deploy Benintendi third and have some semblance of lineup balance. I don't like JBJ second because of how streaky and K-prone he is. I agree that Bogaerts is on the rise, but he's definitely a superior option with the platoon advantage.

[oldtimer]

Oye. Now we can all sit back and get the lecture about how disruptive base runners are not really much of a factor.

Thick Ricky Henderson

[dustcover]

3/23/17 Today’s lineup is very interesting per this conversation. Perhaps it’s a looksie at what we’ll see on opening day!

 

1. Pedroia

2. Benintendi

3. Betts

4. Ramirez

5. Moreland

6. Bogaerts

7. Bradley Jr.

8. Sandoval

9. Swihart

[mvp 78]

3/23/17 Today’s lineup is very interesting per this conversation. Perhaps it’s a looksie at what we’ll see on opening day!

 

1. Pedroia (GOOD)

2. Benintendi (FINE)

3. Betts (FINE)

4. Ramirez (I GUESS)

5. Moreland (HELL NO)

6. Bogaerts (NAH)

7. Bradley Jr. (WHATEVER)

8. Sandoval (NOT SURPRISING)

9. Swihart (WILL BE IN AAA)

 

They've buried Sandoval's bat all spring. I hope he makes them move him up sooner than later.

[bosoxmal]

Swihart caught Wright today (3/23) otherwise you were right on. Swihart has won the job hands down. No competition whatsoever. He even came up with a -24 double play. No PB? Amazing. I think he'll eventually move up in the lineup, but that remains to be seen. Being a SH, he can fit in most places. Bradley's inconsistency makes him ideal for the 9 spot.

[bosoxmal]

They've buried Sandoval's bat all spring. I hope he makes them move him up sooner than later.

Swihart will be in AAA? Surely, you jest!

[moonslav59]

I like Panda second so you can deploy Benintendi third and have some semblance of lineup balance. I don't like JBJ second because of how streaky and K-prone he is. I agree that Bogaerts is on the rise, but he's definitely a superior option with the platoon advantage.

 

Nothing is definite abour Pablo, but I actually like your line-up.

 

I'm more "wait and see" with Beni vs LHPs before sticking him in a top 3 slot.

 

I hear the "consistency" and "comfort" arguments, but my guess is Beni will be thrilled to be anywhere in the top 6.

[Kimmi]

Oye. Now we can all sit back and get the lecture about how disruptive base runners are not really much of a factor.

 

If you don't want to listen to my 'lectures', put me on ignore. Please.

[cp176]

Swihart caught Wright today (3/23) otherwise you were right on. Swihart has won the job hands down. No competition whatsoever. He even came up with a -24 double play. No PB? Amazing. I think he'll eventually move up in the lineup, but that remains to be seen. Being a SH, he can fit in most places. Bradley's inconsistency makes him ideal for the 9 spot.

 

I don't think that Swihart has won the job at all. I think that he will eventually but he hasn't yet.

[Kimmi]

I don't think that Swihart has won the job at all. I think that he will eventually but he hasn't yet.

 

Farrell announced officially today that Leon would be the Opening Day catcher. Swihart is all but guaranteed to start the season in AAA.

[sk7326]

Swihart will be in AAA? Surely, you jest!

 

Options are a powerful thing. Swihart is their highest ceiling option back there - but no problem with slow playing it. Leon deserves the right (I think) to prove that his season was not just a 6 week fluke. (I think it is - but fair to find out for sure)

[cp176]

Farrell announced officially today that Leon would be the Opening Day catcher. Swihart is all but guaranteed to start the season in AAA.

 

I'm ok with that (not that it matters). If he had a better than good spring in all of the various phases of catching, I might not be. Leon is a good catcher. Still a young man and at least for the time being should be our number 1 in my opinion. With what we have in Leon and Vazquez, Swihart needs to show that he can catch at the big league level. He and we have time for that to happen.

[Kimmi]

I'm ok with that (not that it matters). If he had a better than good spring in all of the various phases of catching, I might not be. Leon is a good catcher. Still a young man and at least for the time being should be our number 1 in my opinion. With what we have in Leon and Vazquez, Swihart needs to show that he can catch at the big league level. He and we have time for that to happen.

 

Even if Swihart excelled in all phases of catching during spring training, I would start him in AAA. As of now, it is unclear what we have in any of our catchers, and spring training is not going to answer those questions. IMO, we need time to sort out what we have before we risk losing either Leon or Vazquez.