2017 Season Red Sox Wins Projection

[mvp 78]

Now that the roster is mostly finalized. How do you think the Sox will perform this season?

[moonslav59]

I put 92-95, but I would have gone 96+ if we were in any other division than the AL East.

[Fisk]

Obviously injuries could be a factor, if we are not devastated I will say 95.

[Bellhorn04]

93-69

[mvp 78]

93-69

 

NIIIICE...

[harmony]

Incapable of independent thought:o, I will go with the FanGraphs projection of 92 wins:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-E

[Slasher9]

triple digit wins. bookit.

[Kimmi]

95 wins and a trip to the World Series

[Spudboy]

88-92 wins with good health.

[S5Dewey]

I'm going to be surprised and disappointed if it's not at least 92, a division championship and an appearance in the ALCS.

[jacksonianmarch]

With Price for 5 months, 93 wins.

Without price for the season, 87 wins

[S5Dewey]

With Price for 5 months, 93 wins.

Without price for the season, 87 wins

 

Interesting... You think Price is only worth 6 wins over a replacement pitcher? I'd think at least 10.

[harmony]

Interesting... You think Price is only worth 6 wins over a replacement pitcher? I'd think at least 10.

David Price has averaged 5 Wins Above Replacement over the past seven seasons, including 4.5 fWAR last year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P

[Slasher9]

after a brief stint on the DL at the start of the year - he will pitch this season. I am a brain surgeon so i know a bit about elbow injuries.

 

this i 100% believe: after a couple of "feeling his way" starts - he will pitch well the rest of the season. and by well i mean ACE like. He's going to tell 2016 Slasher to STFU. bigly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Interesting... You think Price is only worth 6 wins over a replacement pitcher? I'd think at least 10.

 

Aces are worth more than their WAR indicates, but you have Sale and Porcello who were aces last year too. Price's worth isn't just his effectiveness, it's his durability. Being able to throw 200+IP for a team with a suddenly thin pen (Thornburg hasn't thrown and Smith is returning from surgery) is really important. That being said, your offense should manhandle a few bad starts where Price is out and league average replacements with that offense should do "ok".

[Emp9]

With Price for 5 months, 93 wins.

Without price for the season, 87 wins

 

Price wasn't really pitching Ace-like his first month and a half last season. I think the offense carried him to more wins and more no decisions (which would've surely been losses) through much of that time. Either way, it would be a huge loss if Price missed the whole year. I happen to really like our last 3 starters to cover for Price's absence, but I'm still hoping it's only for the first month. I'll put it this way, I think the Sox' Starting staff 1-6 are talented enough that we shouldn't see THAT MUCH of a difference in respect to overall team wins and losses. I'm more concerned with our BP (Thornburg, Smith out) blowing leads than anything else.

[FredLynn]

I voted for 81-86 wins, but only for the benefit of Harmony and Jacko.

I agree with Jacko's assessment: 93-94 wins with Price; 87 without him.

[Kimmi]

Interesting... You think Price is only worth 6 wins over a replacement pitcher? I'd think at least 10.

 

If Price is out, he's not being replaced by a replacement pitcher. He's being replaced by Pomeranz, who is currently considered our #5 guy. The difference in projected WAR between Price and Pom is 1.4 (Steamer) or 2.5 (Zips). Losing Price for the season will also have an effect on our bullpen, which would increase the difference by a little bit.

 

All that being taken into account, having Price out for the season, assuming the health of the rest of the rotation, is likely not going to cost us 6 wins.

[Kimmi]

after a brief stint on the DL at the start of the year - he will pitch this season. I am a brain surgeon so i know a bit about elbow injuries.

 

this i 100% believe: after a couple of "feeling his way" starts - he will pitch well the rest of the season. and by well i mean ACE like. He's going to tell 2016 Slasher to STFU. bigly.

 

[FredLynn]

If Price is out, he's not being replaced by a replacement pitcher. He's being replaced by Pomeranz, who is currently considered our #5 guy. The difference in projected WAR between Price and Pom is 1.4 (Steamer) or 2.5 (Zips). Losing Price for the season will also have an effect on our bullpen, which would increase the difference by a little bit.

 

All that being taken into account, having Price out for the season, assuming the health of the rest of the rotation, is likely not going to cost us 6 wins.

 

That is true as long as the other top five pitchers in the rotation remain healthy. There is a steep dropoff if someone else goes down for an extended time, or if several of them go down for shorter times. Unfortunately, there is a reasonably strong likelihood that without Price we would have to use what would amount to our #7 SP for many games. Then I could see his absence costing us 6 or more games.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pomeranz has an elbow injury and is currently experiencing a velocity drop. He's no sure thing.

[FredLynn]

Pomeranz has an elbow injury and is currently experiencing a velocity drop. He's no sure thing.

 

The "drop" in his velocity is less than 1.5mph on his fastball, which was never fast anyway. Furthermore, there is a simple explanation: many pitchers do not regain full velocity until several months into the season. I remember this discussion about Price last year. Yes, he started off slowly, but he regained his form, and his velocity, as the season progressed. If Pomeranz had a significant injury from which he has not yet recovered he would not be out there pitching at all. If its July and he has lost velocity, I worry. Not now, not in spring training.

[Fisk]

Even if price is out(which I think he will be fine) we will have replaced him with Sale, which going against last year is an upgrade EROD had almost a lost season he looks good this spring. Wright missed the last two months last year. The 93 win team had a lot of replacement starts last year.

[Fisk]

Without Ortiz they may score a few less runs, but a big upgrade in left and probably an upgrade at third could help offset it. It's going to be a versatile offense.

[jacksonianmarch]

Benintendi should make an impact. Pablo maybe is an upgrade over Shaw, who knows. There are no positives offensively to losing a guy who hit to a 1+ OPS. Your offense will suffer. The fix was to offset it by upgrading your rotation. The upgrade was Sale, but if you remove Price from the equation, then you're treading water for the most part. If Price is out for an extended period of time, you're going to be scrapping to make the playoffs

[Fisk]

Shaw was worthless from June on Pablo will be an upgrade. Youngsters should keep getting better not going to be much of a difference.

[Fisk]

Seems like a lot of wishful feeling on your part. Can't just look at worst possible scenario. Thorn burg is already throwing off the mound good chance he will be ready, if not 10 day disabled list. Smith is also throwing off a mound projection is mid may return I would bet in June. Bullpen not really a worry for me. Lots of hard throwers.

[Kimmi]

That is true as long as the other top five pitchers in the rotation remain healthy. There is a steep dropoff if someone else goes down for an extended time, or if several of them go down for shorter times. Unfortunately, there is a reasonably strong likelihood that without Price we would have to use what would amount to our #7 SP for many games. Then I could see his absence costing us 6 or more games.

 

I agree that losing Price for the season would create an even greater concern about our depth. I also agree that if Price is out for the season and another of our starters is out for any considerable length of time, the absences of both pitchers could cost us 6 games or more. But I would not assume that the loss of Price, in and of itself, would cost us 6 games.

[Kimmi]

Even if price is out(which I think he will be fine) we will have replaced him with Sale, which going against last year is an upgrade EROD had almost a lost season he looks good this spring. Wright missed the last two months last year. The 93 win team had a lot of replacement starts last year.

 

Agreed. Our rotation this year with Sale instead of Price is stronger than last year's rotation.

[Kimmi]

Benintendi should make an impact. Pablo maybe is an upgrade over Shaw, who knows. There are no positives offensively to losing a guy who hit to a 1+ OPS. Your offense will suffer. The fix was to offset it by upgrading your rotation. The upgrade was Sale, but if you remove Price from the equation, then you're treading water for the most part. If Price is out for an extended period of time, you're going to be scrapping to make the playoffs

 

Our offense outscored the rest of the AL East by over 100 runs. No, our offense will not be as great without Papi, but it will still be pretty doggone good.

 

As I've said before, I'm a worrier. Not making the playoffs this season is not on my list of things to worry about.