What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?

[Dojji]

It's not just defensive metrics that showed a defensive decline by Bogey. His RF/9, Fldg% and chances were all down from 2015. My eye test also showed decline. Bogey got 17 points on the Fielding Bible voting in 2015. He didn't get a single vote as a top 10 defensive SS in 2016.

 

I think his decline was clear. Where he started from is debatable.

 

I don't want to trade for a SS now. I want to see what Pablo can do in 2017. If he sucks, a debate might start about us acquiring a 3B man or a SS, but Bogey is not going to be moved to 3B for years to come, IMO.

 

I think you're using the wrong word. Regression is the word to describe a young player, decline is a completely different thing. Decline suggests his core talent isn't what it was, and that's absurd for a kid that young. He's got all the talent he needs to be a good defensive SS, and the worst we've seen from him is still a level of defense his bat can easily atone for.

[moonslav59]

I think you're using the wrong word. Regression is the word to describe a young player, decline is a completely different thing. Decline suggests his core talent isn't what it was, and that's absurd for a kid that young. He's got all the talent he needs to be a good defensive SS, and the worst we've seen from him is still a level of defense his bat can easily atone for.

 

I did use the word "regression" to describe his defense. I used the word "decline" to describe his defensive numbers and then continued using that word in my second post. I think you are right. I should have said "regressed" in my second post when talking about him not his numbers..

 

I agree that his bat should always more than make up for his defense, but here's my history on viewing Bogey's defense:

1) I believed the scouts and early reports that said he would probably be better suited for 3B.

2) I believed he might never even reach average on SS defense, so I wanted him at 3B and Iggy at SS. I felt eventually, he'd adjust to 3B and could become a plus there on defense making him a bigger overall plus than he would become at SS.

3) After his decent fielding 2015 season, I saw hope that he could become a plus defender at SS by 2016 or 2017. I admitted I was wrong with my initial assessment, as were many scouts.

4) I was disappointed by his 2016 season on defense. I expected continued growth, but saw regression instead. Then, I looked at the numbers and metrics and saw my observations and evaluation was supported by the data.

5) Now, we have no better SS option in our system without a massive trade-off in offense. Even if we had one, I'd still give Bogey another year to show 2016 was a blip on his upward curve of defensive improvement since 2013-2014.

6) I have not given up on the idea that Bogey can improve to the point where he is at least an average defender at SS. I think he can even become a plus at some point.

7) He has the "tools" to be a plus. I never suggested his core defensive talents are low.

[moonslav59]

I'm not talking about expectations, no one's putting Nomar on Bogaerts here. I'm talking about potential based on what he's already shown himself to be capable of. Bogey showed us something the first half last year, he's capable of production at a very, very high level when he's going good. If he can make adjustments sooner and stay out of the big awful half-season slumps, his numbers could be Godly in any given year.

 

I totally agree. I think we could see a monster year from Bogey sometime soon.

[rkarp1]

seems I am in the minority on the pen. I think it will be a strength for the team.

I am still 100% on board with Kimbrel and think if healthy, he is going to be great

I also like Kelly, Barnes and Hembree is that 7-8 area. all touch 95 plus and I much prefer hard throwers in middle relief.

I have not seen much of Thornberg so cannot comment

Smith seems likely an after the AS break reinforcement

Could Wright also augment this group?

 

My concern is with team depth. Injuries will happen. Young seemingly is a semi regular. After Holt, I see 4A guys with nothing imminent in the minors

[moonslav59]

seems I am in the minority on the pen. I think it will be a strength for the team.

I am still 100% on board with Kimbrel and think if healthy, he is going to be great

I also like Kelly, Barnes and Hembree is that 7-8 area. all touch 95 plus and I much prefer hard throwers in middle relief.

I have not seen much of Thornberg so cannot comment

Smith seems likely an after the AS break reinforcement

Could Wright also augment this group?

 

My concern is with team depth. Injuries will happen. Young seemingly is a semi regular. After Holt, I see 4A guys with nothing imminent in the minors

 

I think our depth is a strength.

 

We have 3 catchers.

 

We have Holt as our supersub. Hernandez and Rutledge are both more than capable utility IF'ers.

 

Young is an excellent 4th OF'er.

 

Moreland and Travis at 1B with HanRam is very deep.

 

If you count pitching, our 6th starter is one of the best in MLB.

 

We have more questions with our set-up men in the pen than the pen depth. We're over-loaded with 6 and 7th slot RP'ers.

[rkarp1]

I think our depth is a strength.

 

We have 3 catchers.

 

We have Holt as our supersub. Hernandez and Rutledge are both more than capable utility IF'ers.

 

Young is an excellent 4th OF'er.

 

Moreland and Travis at 1B with HanRam is very deep.

 

If you count pitching, our 6th starter is one of the best in MLB.

 

We have more questions with our set-up men in the pen than the pen depth. We're over-loaded with 6 and 7th slot RP'ers.

 

Yes, I understand, and many agree with you.

However, I am not completely sold on Leons outlier 1.5 months. I also have to see more from Vaz. I do think Swihart will be great, but maybe not quite this year

Rutledge and Hern for me are 4A players

Young IMO is our DH while Moreland is depth/defensive replacement

Travis in June if Moreland is a K machine

 

I was not counting pitching

[moonslav59]

Yes, I understand, and many agree with you.

However, I am not completely sold on Leons outlier 1.5 months. I also have to see more from Vaz. I do think Swihart will be great, but maybe not quite this year.

 

But isn't this more of an issue with the starter not the bench?

Whoever starts, we have two back-ups that are very well regarded as back-ups when comparing to the average league 2 and 3 catchers. That's a strong catcher bench.

Rutledge and Hern for me are 4A players

I think Hernandez still has upsie and may be better than Holt at SS and maybe even 3B. Rutledge is probably better than Holt at 3B. Even if they are 4A, they are behind Holt and are as good if not better than many other teams' 3rd or 4th oiption at the IF positions.

 

Young IMO is our DH while Moreland is depth/defensive replacement

Young will DH vs LHPs only, which is only about 23% of our games. If he is DH'ing and an OF'er gets hurt, there will be an issue with losing the DH, but Holt is a fine back-up in the OF for a partial game here and there.

HanRam will DH vs RHPs as Moreland plays 1B. Any long term or pregame injury to OF or 1B can easily be dealt with by having Young play LF or Moreland/HanRam play 1B against either handed pitcher. Holt is the 3rd string back-up in LF and 1B.

One of Young or Moreland should always be on the bench with Holt, Rutledge and Vaz or Swi.

 

Travis in June if Moreland is a K machine

Travis could provide better than 4A depth at 1B.

 

 

[rkarp1]

I am struggling having 2 4A catchers on your major league roster as "depth". Or maybe we can say the team has depth but no starter?

 

I could agree that Hern may be better than Holt if we were talking inf defense. I dont think Rutledge makes this team out of ST.

 

I like Young and view him as a semi regular due to his presumed DH duties. I also like him in the OF

 

My point on "depth" was more so needing someone to play every day due to inevitable injury. If the need arises to play someone 1-2 months, there is nothing in Pawtucket on the field or on the mound. I would assume a search for the next Aaron Hill would commence. If Benni ...gasp....struggled, would Swi be moved to the OF? Would Brentz be summoned? Lets face it there is no Bogey or Benni or Moncada just about ready to plug in. I would assume there is no rush to rush Devers or Groome.

[Kimmi]

I am struggling having 2 4A catchers on your major league roster as "depth". Or maybe we can say the team has depth but no starter?

 

I could agree that Hern may be better than Holt if we were talking inf defense. I dont think Rutledge makes this team out of ST.

 

I like Young and view him as a semi regular due to his presumed DH duties. I also like him in the OF

 

My point on "depth" was more so needing someone to play every day due to inevitable injury. If the need arises to play someone 1-2 months, there is nothing in Pawtucket on the field or on the mound. I would assume a search for the next Aaron Hill would commence. If Benni ...gasp....struggled, would Swi be moved to the OF? Would Brentz be summoned? Lets face it there is no Bogey or Benni or Moncada just about ready to plug in. I would assume there is no rush to rush Devers or Groome.

 

I agree completely. Our bench is good. The day to day replacements won't be an issue.

 

The potential problem arises if/when we have to fill a position long term due to injury or, heaven forbid, gross underperformance. I suppose Rutledge, Holt, or Hernandez could do a decent job, but I'm not feeling all warm and fuzzy about them being starting players for 2 months or more.

[moonslav59]

I am struggling having 2 4A catchers on your major league roster as "depth". Or maybe we can say the team has depth but no starter?

 

That's kind of what my point was. We have 3 very good back-up catchers with promise but a doubtful starter. That's not lack of depth as one starts and we go two deep in capable back-ups which is more than most teams have. It's not a depth weakness here; it's a plus.

 

I could agree that Hern may be better than Holt if we were talking inf defense. I dont think Rutledge makes this team out of ST.

 

Who is 25 then? Hern or Travis? I think it's Rutledge, and I think he's a pretty decent 3B sub--maybe average in MLB, so again, not a weakness. With Hern as the third man down, I think we're fine at 3B depth.

 

I like Young and view him as a semi regular due to his presumed DH duties. I also like him in the OF.

 

I can see your point, but your worry was for longterm injury coverage, and Young is decent vs RHPs and could be a FT OF'er, if need be. (It would fix Moreland to 1B, even against LHPs and HanRam to DH, but that wouldn't ne the end of the world either. Besides, we might call-up Travis to play 1B vs lefties. I'm not excited about Holt moving from the 5 to 4 OF'er, but as long as we don't have 2 OF injuries, we should be fine.

 

OF'ers are easy to acquire mid season- see de Aza, Podsednik, QBerry, DMac... I know it's not fair couinting players as depth that are not in the system, but you get my point here.

 

My point on "depth" was more so needing someone to play every day due to inevitable injury. If the need arises to play someone 1-2 months, there is nothing in Pawtucket on the field or on the mound. I would assume a search for the next Aaron Hill would com mence. If Benni ...gasp....struggled, would Swi be moved to the OF? Would Brentz be summoned? Lets face it there is no Bogey or Benni or Moncada just about ready to plug in. I would assume there is no rush to rush Devers or Groome.

 

If Beni struggles or gets hurt we can platoon Young with him or play Young FT. He's got a career .707 OPS vs RHPs (.766 in 2016, which was better than our overall LF OPS last year of .759).

 

Here's how I see our depth chart (Starter in parenthesis):

 

C (Leon) Vaz, Swihart, Butler

1B (HanRam-Moreland platoon) Moreland-HanRam (from DH), Holt (shortterm), Travis (longterm), Craig

2B (Pedey) Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge, MMiller or Marrero

3B (Pablo) Rutledge, Holt, Dominguez, Witte

SS (Bogey) Holt (shortterm), Hernandez (longterm), Marrero, Meneses

LF (Beni) Young, Holt, Swihart, Moreland, Lake-Brentz

CF (JBJ) Beni (from LF - see above to fill LF) Holt, Lake

RF (Betts) Young, Holt, Moreland, Lake-Brentz

DH (Young-HanRam platoon) Young or HanRam FT, Swihart, Travis, Witte

 

I think we had a great bench last year. Leon, Beni...

 

Just because we lost Moncada and replaced Shaw with Pablo, doesn't mean our bench is weak. We added Moreland and Travis to the mix. We do lack extended depth in the OF, but It's not like Young and Holt with Swihart in an emergency is a negative. I really believe our depth is average or plus everywhere else. .

Edited January 28, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I agree completely. Our bench is good. The day to day replacements won't be an issue.

 

The potential problem arises if/when we have to fill a position long term due to injury or, heaven forbid, gross underperformance. I suppose Rutledge, Holt, or Hernandez could do a decent job, but I'm not feeling all warm and fuzzy about them being starting players for 2 months or more.

 

Long term depth:

 

C: Swi or Vaz

1B: Moreland or HanRam become FT (Travis to bench)

DH: HanRam or Young become FT (Tavis or Holt to bench at 1B or LF)

2B: Holt- his strongest position defensively

3B: Rutledge or Holt (Hernandez?)

SS: Hernandez

LF: Young

CF: Beni (Young FT in LF)

RF: Young

 

How is this weak? Only 3B looks sketchy, but how many other teams have vastly better back-up 3Bmen? At least we have 3 guys to choose from there.

[dgalehouse]

I don't see any serious weaknesses on this club. That is how it should be since we gave up some excellent prospects to get to this point. Of course , serious injuries to key players will cause a problem for any team.

[Kimmi]

Long term depth:

 

C: Swi or Vaz

1B: Moreland or HanRam become FT (Travis to bench)

DH: HanRam or Young become FT (Tavis or Holt to bench at 1B or LF)

2B: Holt- his strongest position defensively

3B: Rutledge or Holt (Hernandez?)

SS: Hernandez

LF: Young

CF: Beni (Young FT in LF)

RF: Young

 

How is this weak? Only 3B looks sketchy, but how many other teams have vastly better back-up 3Bmen? At least we have 3 guys to choose from there.

 

I like those guys as bench players or even platoon guys. As everyday starters? That causes me some concern, especially when we have little wiggle room to add replacements.

 

Of course you're not going to be able to replace a Mookie Betts if he has a season ending injury early in the season, but it's the teams that can deal with that type of loss that often make it to the playoffs versus teams that are derailed by such a loss.

 

I'm not losing any sleep over it and I don't think it's a grave weakness. As I said in response to the original poll question, I don't think the current team really has any weaknesses, but if I had to name one, it would be the overall depth.

[moonslav59]

I like those guys as bench players or even platoon guys. As everyday starters? That causes me some concern, especially when we have little wiggle room to add replacements.

 

Of course you're not going to be able to replace a Mookie Betts if he has a season ending injury early in the season, but it's the teams that can deal with that type of loss that often make it to the playoffs versus teams that are derailed by such a loss.

 

I'm not losing any sleep over it and I don't think it's a grave weakness. As I said in response to the original poll question, I don't think the current team really has any weaknesses, but if I had to name one, it would be the overall depth.

 

Kimmi, nobody is saying these guys are as good as the FT'ers they may end up having to replace long term. The evaluation of a bench is not done by comparing them to the starters; it is done by comparing our bench to the benches in MLB.

 

I'm not saying we have the best bench in MLB, but I do think it is top 10 and maybe even top 5 or 6.

 

Young, Holt, Vazquez and Swihart could start on many teams. They might not be all stars, but we won't be burned by having them play everyday. Maybe Travis can join this group before the season is over.

 

[FredLynn]

I think our depth is a strength.

 

We have 3 catchers.

 

We have Holt as our supersub. Hernandez and Rutledge are both more than capable utility IF'ers.

 

Young is an excellent 4th OF'er.

 

Moreland and Travis at 1B with HanRam is very deep.

 

If you count pitching, our 6th starter is one of the best in MLB.

 

We have more questions with our set-up men in the pen than the pen depth. We're over-loaded with 6 and 7th slot RP'ers.

 

The most suspect depth area is SP after our #6. On the other hand, I do not think that many teams have serviceable #7 and 8 SP. They will be needed eventually. I just hope its not Owens and Johnson that we need to rely on.

[moonslav59]

The most suspect depth area is SP after our #6. On the other hand, I do not think that many teams have serviceable #7 and 8 SP. They will be needed eventually. I just hope its not Owens and Johnson that we need to rely on.

 

Agreed, but since our 6th starter is better than all but maybe 2-3 teams' 6ths tarter, I think that makes up for any comparative loss we might have at the 7-8-9 slots.

[FredLynn]

Agreed, but since our 6th starter is better than all but maybe 2-3 teams' 6ths tarter, I think that makes up for any comparative loss we might have at the 7-8-9 slots.

 

That all depends on how many starts we need from our #7-8 SPers. If our top six can stay healthy we will do just fine.

[moonslav59]

That all depends on how many starts we need from our #7-8 SPers. If our top six can stay healthy we will do just fine.

 

I see it this way, if we lose two starters, I'll take our 6 + 7 starters combined over most other teams' 6+7 starters combined.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, nobody is saying these guys are as good as the FT'ers they may end up having to replace long term. The evaluation of a bench is not done by comparing them to the starters; it is done by comparing our bench to the benches in MLB.

 

I'm not saying we have the best bench in MLB, but I do think it is top 10 and maybe even top 5 or 6.

 

Young, Holt, Vazquez and Swihart could start on many teams. They might not be all stars, but we won't be burned by having them play everyday. Maybe Travis can join this group before the season is over.

 

 

I don't disagree that we have a good bench. I'm not concerned about our bench.

 

I am concerned about long term replacements should the team suffer any serious injuries. I don't think we really have any viable Plan B players, which I think was a problem in 2014. I don't think our bench players are going to cut it as everyday starters. There's a reason why they are bench players.

 

It's likely that most other teams are in the same boat. I don't know. Perhaps it's something that we won't even have to worry about. I am only voicing it as my concern because I have no other concerns about this year's team. That's a great thing!

[Dojji]

I'm beginning to wonder if the greatest weakness of the team this year might actually be...

 

Us.

 

The fans.

 

Our expectations are going to be ridiculous this year. We're bad enough when we're expecting a pretty good year and then encounter a 2 week skid. A 2 week skid when the expectation is literally a championship and I don't even want to imagine the social-media carnage. The sportswriters will be ready with the long knives for the first time something goes seriously wrong. God help us if Sale is jumpy out the gate and has a couple of 4+ run starts to kick the season off because the level of ridiculousness from some of our twitchier fellow fans is going to be embarrassing, and there is a point when that starts to reflect back on the team, we've seen it (rarely, but seen it) before.

 

I'm specifically a bit worried about Sale actually. We know from the jersey incident in Chicago last year that he's an emotional fellow. We as fans have ridden guys like that in the past pretty hard, and we already know Sale can be triggered, so I'm not sure how well he's going to be able to take it. Long and short is I could wish that we as a fanbase were a lot more welcoming and a lot less judgmental of new talent, and I'm worried that could bite us in the tail if things don't start strong.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm beginning to wonder if the greatest weakness of the team this year might actually be...

 

Us.

 

The fans.

 

Our expectations are going to be ridiculous this year. We're bad enough when we're expecting a pretty good year and then encounter a 2 week skid. A 2 week skid when the expectation is literally a championship and I don't even want to imagine the social-media carnage. The sportswriters will be ready with the long knives for the first time something goes seriously wrong. God help us if Sale is jumpy out the gate and has a couple of 4+ run starts to kick the season off because the level of ridiculousness from some of our twitchier fellow fans is going to be embarrassing, and there is a point when that starts to reflect back on the team, we've seen it (rarely, but seen it) before.

 

I'm specifically a bit worried about Sale actually. We know from the jersey incident in Chicago last year that he's an emotional fellow. We as fans have ridden guys like that in the past pretty hard, and we already know Sale can be triggered, so I'm not sure how well he's going to be able to take it. Long and short is I could wish that we as a fanbase were a lot more welcoming and a lot less judgmental of new talent, and I'm worried that could bite us in the tail if things don't start strong.

 

Fans usually are a weakness.

 

In 2004 fans were freaking out as the team played .500 ball for a 3 month stretch.

In 2007 fans were freaking out as our lead in the division was slipping and Tito was still using Eric Gagne in important spots.

 

The team has to rise above the fans, frankly. If they're not stronger than us, they are indeed in trouble.

[Kimmi]

I'm beginning to wonder if the greatest weakness of the team this year might actually be...

 

Us.

 

The fans.

 

Our expectations are going to be ridiculous this year. We're bad enough when we're expecting a pretty good year and then encounter a 2 week skid. A 2 week skid when the expectation is literally a championship and I don't even want to imagine the social-media carnage. The sportswriters will be ready with the long knives for the first time something goes seriously wrong. God help us if Sale is jumpy out the gate and has a couple of 4+ run starts to kick the season off because the level of ridiculousness from some of our twitchier fellow fans is going to be embarrassing, and there is a point when that starts to reflect back on the team, we've seen it (rarely, but seen it) before.

 

I'm specifically a bit worried about Sale actually. We know from the jersey incident in Chicago last year that he's an emotional fellow. We as fans have ridden guys like that in the past pretty hard, and we already know Sale can be triggered, so I'm not sure how well he's going to be able to take it. Long and short is I could wish that we as a fanbase were a lot more welcoming and a lot less judgmental of new talent, and I'm worried that could bite us in the tail if things don't start strong.

 

Fans can definitely be tough. And reactionary. The reactionary goes both ways, bad and good. Fans are ready to call a player a bust after a 2 week span, but they are also ready to anoint a player HOF status after a 2 week span. I guess that's the nature of the fanatic.

 

That being said, I think the majority of the posters here are pretty level headed when it comes to that type of thing. I know I am.

 

A few of the players like Pedroia, Betts, and Price are going to have to step it up as leaders to make sure that no one on the team is 'rattled' by the fans. I am mostly concerned about Pablo in that area, should he get off to a slow start. The fans will be ruthless.

[Kimmi]

Fans usually are a weakness.

 

In 2004 fans were freaking out as the team played .500 ball for a 3 month stretch.

In 2007 fans were freaking out as our lead in the division was slipping and Tito was still using Eric Gagne in important spots.

 

The team has to rise above the fans, frankly. If they're not stronger than us, they are indeed in trouble.

 

I have no doubt that this team is able to rise above the fans.

 

IMO, the only thing stopping us from the postseason is a string of injuries above the norm.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree that we have a good bench. I'm not concerned about our bench.

 

I am concerned about long term replacements should the team suffer any serious injuries. I don't think we really have any viable Plan B players, which I think was a problem in 2014. I don't think our bench players are going to cut it as everyday starters. There's a reason why they are bench players.

 

It's likely that most other teams are in the same boat. I don't know. Perhaps it's something that we won't even have to worry about. I am only voicing it as my concern because I have no other concerns about this year's team. That's a great thing!

 

Losing a key player will hurt us badly, but all we can really hope for is that other teams have the same amount of injuries, and I think we have better options than most teams. It would be nice to have some near allstar calliber subs, but I'm not sure any team has that.

 

I'd be very comfortable with Young in LF full time vs LHPs and RHPs. I'd be very comfortable with any of our 3 catchers behind the plate. I'd be fine with Holt at 2B and Rutledge at 3B. I'm not sure about Hernandez at SS or Travis at 1B, but they probably wouldn't be negative WAR players.

 

Again, compared to most teams, I think our bench is not just a strength, it is (comparatively speaking) a very strong part of our team.

 

[a700hitter]

"Rise above the fans" How absurd.

[moonslav59]

"Rise above the fans" How absurd.

 

Agreed.

 

We are the greatest fanbase any team could possibly want to have.

 

Yeah, there may be a little added pressure, but it sure beats fan apathy and fans leaving in the 7th inning during tied games.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

We are the greatest fanbase any team could possibly want to have.

 

Yeah, there may be a little added pressure, but it sure beats fan apathy and fans leaving in the 7th inning during tied games.

 

 

All I meant was that the team can't be affected by negativity in the fanbase and the media if the team doesn't seem to be playing up to expectations. Dojji thinks that's a potential problem for this team.

[moonslav59]

All I meant was that the team can't be affected by negativity in the fanbase and the media if the team doesn't seem to be playing up to expectations. Dojji thinks that's a potential problem for this team.

 

If this kind of things bothers our players enough to make a difference, then we don't have what it takes to win it all anyways.

[Kimmi]

All I meant was that the team can't be affected by negativity in the fanbase and the media if the team doesn't seem to be playing up to expectations. Dojji thinks that's a potential problem for this team.

 

We have seen many players who can't seem to handle the scrutiny of the Boston fans and the Boston media. Having a player underperform because of the scrutiny can certainly impact the overall success of the team. I don't see it as a problem for this team because of the overall quality of the players, but it is certainly not an absurd idea.

[cp176]

They will miss the that big bat and its' threat in the middle of their lineup.