2017 Rotation

[oldtimer]

Sure, ideally we'd pick up another 8th inning guy. Realistically, that's not going to happen, especially with the way the price of back end relievers has gone out of control.

 

We have our 8th and 9th inning guys. We have a couple of other guys who could step into the 8th inning role if needed. I would still like to pick up another reliever or 2, but I think our pen will be okay.

 

 

That's the problem. We've seriously drained the farm to get where we are now- a top contender.

 

Two forces are at work though...

 

We really don't want to have to trade the last vestiges of prospects for yet another quality RP'er.

 

We really don't want to go over the luxury tax limit. Keeping at least some flex space for the deadline seems essential.

 

My guess is the most realistic options to wait until the deadline. Contract prices will only be a third of their season value, and we may be able to find values like Ziegler again, or take some hefty contract off some out-of-contention team's hands for scraps.

 

Of course, I'd love to have an 8th inning RP'er added to start the season, but I'm not willing to use all the luxury tax space or trade more of our best prospects away, so I realize this is probably pretty close to what we'll have to start the season... maybe a few minor league depth pieces added, cross our fingers and hope Smith comes to the rescue at least until the deadline.

 

 

 

If Swihart looks good enough in AAA catching, then we may have a ML catcher to trade during the season, freeing up some salary and making a RP acquisition possible while staying within the guidelines you mentioned above.

[moonslav59]

If Swihart looks good enough in AAA catching, then we may have a ML catcher to trade during the season, freeing up some salary and making a RP acquisition possible while staying within the guidelines you mentioned above.

 

Swihart's salary is minimum. Any player replacing him will be making equal or more than he is.

 

I don't really see us trading any larger salary. Nobody wants Pablo, even if we pay $10 of his $19M a year. The only other remotely possible salary dump might be Abad ~$2M arb.

 

Maybe during the year, we may try to dump Young $6.5M or Moreland $5.5M, but it looks like both have key roles right now.

[Kimmi]

We will pick up another reliever or 2, the only question is will we be able to wait to the deadline to do it. We really can't afford another name brand premium reliever either in dollars or more prospects. It'll be one of DD's challenges this year.

 

Hopefully, Smith can be the that premium midseason reliever acquisition. He won't cost us anything.

[notin]

If Swihart looks good enough in AAA catching, then we may have a ML catcher to trade during the season, freeing up some salary and making a RP acquisition possible while staying within the guidelines you mentioned above.

 

That operates on the assumption that either Vazquez or Leon play well enough to look likr s viable trade candidate. If both look like prototypical defense-first backup catchers, which is certainly possible, how often are players like that acquired by rebuilding teams?

 

Swihart could be dealt, but that further weakens the farm...

[Kimmi]

Sure, ideally we'd pick up another 8th inning guy. Realistically, that's not going to happen, especially with the way the price of back end relievers has gone out of control.

 

We have our 8th and 9th inning guys. We have a couple of other guys who could step into the 8th inning role if needed. I would still like to pick up another reliever or 2, but I think our pen will be okay.

 

 

That's the problem. We've seriously drained the farm to get where we are now- a top contender.

 

Two forces are at work though...

 

We really don't want to have to trade the last vestiges of prospects for yet another quality RP'er.

 

We really don't want to go over the luxury tax limit. Keeping at least some flex space for the deadline seems essential.

 

My guess is the most realistic options to wait until the deadline. Contract prices will only be a third of their season value, and we may be able to find values like Ziegler again, or take some hefty contract off some out-of-contention team's hands for scraps.

 

Of course, I'd love to have an 8th inning RP'er added to start the season, but I'm not willing to use all the luxury tax space or trade more of our best prospects away, so I realize this is probably pretty close to what we'll have to start the season... maybe a few minor league depth pieces added, cross our fingers and hope Smith comes to the rescue at least until the deadline.

 

Agreed. The team is in somewhat of a bind as far as acquiring any more players. The good news is, our team looks really good and we don't need to add any players. The only concern is if we suffer a major injury early in the season and need a replacement. But that's a concern for pretty much every team.

[Kimmi]

Way too early to even think about deadline concerns. Any one of over a dozen players can get injured and bump "extra reliever" way down on the priority list.

 

Really the only thong the Sox should do until camp breaks is bolster the pitching depth at both starter and reliever with minor league deals. And while I get this is an unpredictable practice, it's getting a little disappointing that the Sox haven't been doing this at all. Granted it's been a slow process league wide, but other teams ate doing it.

 

But hey we got Brian Bogusevic on a minor league deal. Maybe he can be converted to a pitcher, which would make sense. Hopefully he wasn't signed to play the outfield. He can't hit, but he does have a serious CANNON for an arm..

 

I don't usually point out typos, as we're all guilty of making them, but this one is too funny not to point out. LOL

 

Outside of that, I pretty much agree with this post. I would like to add one more reliever for the 25 man roster, but I'm fine if all we add are some depth options.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. The team is in somewhat of a bind as far as acquiring any more players. The good news is, our team looks really good and we don't need to add any players. The only concern is if we suffer a major injury early in the season and need a replacement. But that's a concern for pretty much every team.

 

Having $8-9M to "play with" should be able to cover any one "major injury" but two or three might be tough.

 

The longer we can wait, the less pro-rated money goes against the luxury budget.

 

To not have to trade good prospects to get good talent, usually some sort of salary dump occurs, so the more we have, the better was can do, in theory.

[Kimmi]

Swihart's salary is minimum. Any player replacing him will be making equal or more than he is.

 

I don't really see us trading any larger salary. Nobody wants Pablo, even if we pay $10 of his $19M a year. The only other remotely possible salary dump might be Abad ~$2M arb.

 

Maybe during the year, we may try to dump Young $6.5M or Moreland $5.5M, but it looks like both have key roles right now.

 

I think Swihart has more value to other teams than some think. If we're trading a cost controlled player like Swihart, I would expect a cost controlled reliever in return, or I would expect the other team to eat a good bit of the salary of the returning player.

 

Otherwise, it's probably not worth trading him.

[notin]

I don't usually point out typos, as we're all guilty of making them, but this one is too funny not to point out. LOL

 

Outside of that, I pretty much agree with this post. I would like to add one more reliever for the 25 man roster, but I'm fine if all we add are some depth options.

 

Hey I'm working on a Samsung Galaxy keyboard with astigmatism here. If people reading my posts acknowledge thry are typed in English, I consider it a moral victory.

 

As for the bullpen, at this point the Sox are unlikely to add anyone who is a definitive upgrade over Hembree, and possibly not even over Abad. I would hope their top three priorities the remainder of the off-season are depth, depth and depth...

[Kimmi]

That operates on the assumption that either Vazquez or Leon play well enough to look likr s viable trade candidate. If both look like prototypical defense-first backup catchers, which is certainly possible, how often are players like that acquired by rebuilding teams?

 

Swihart could be dealt, but that further weakens the farm...

 

It's not necessarily a rebuilding team that we would trade with. If a contending team suffers an injury at catcher, they would most definitely be interested in Leon or Vazquez, as well as Swihart.

 

That said, I am not condoning the trade of any of our catchers until at least the deadline.

[notin]

I think Swihart has more value to other teams than some think. If we're trading a cost controlled player like Swihart, I would expect a cost controlled reliever in return, or I would expect the other team to eat a good bit of the salary of the returning player.

 

Otherwise, it's probably not worth trading him.

 

I'd rather keep Swihart. There is no reason to assume Vazquez and Leon are a solution for the immediate future.

 

If not for his salary, the Sox could probably trade Swihart for David Robertson yesterday.

[Kimmi]

Having $8-9M to "play with" should be able to cover any one "major injury" but two or three might be tough.

 

The longer we can wait, the less pro-rated money goes against the luxury budget.

 

To not have to trade good prospects to get good talent, usually some sort of salary dump occurs, so the more we have, the better was can do, in theory.

 

I don't disagree, but one major injury would likely use up what little wiggle room we have.

[notin]

It's not necessarily a rebuilding team that we would trade with. If a contending team suffers an injury at catcher, they would most definitely be interested in Leon or Vazquez, as well as Swihart.

 

That said, I am not condoning the trade of any of our catchers until at least the deadline.

 

A contending team is also less likely to break up their bullpen and trade a useful reliever.

 

Such a team would probably look elsewhere for a catcher and deal away players they are not counting on to contend...

[Emp9]

Small sample size

 

Him starting was a small sample size too. 22+Innings Starting vs 17+ innings Relieving, there's still a 20 run difference. Does no one else think that's startling?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=kellyjo05&year=2016&t=p#sprel_extra::none

[Kimmi]

Hey I'm working on a Samsung Galaxy keyboard with astigmatism here. If people reading my posts acknowledge thry are typed in English, I consider it a moral victory.

 

As for the bullpen, at this point the Sox are unlikely to add anyone who is a definitive upgrade over Hembree, and possibly not even over Abad. I would hope their top three priorities the remainder of the off-season are depth, depth and depth...

 

LOL The 'O' is right next to the 'I', so I guess I can buy that excuse.

 

You're right, for the amount the FO is probably willing to spend, finding an upgrade over what we currently have could be tough.

 

I am with you 100% on the depth.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree, but one major injury would likely use up what little wiggle room we have.

 

If a key player gets hurt in July, and we only have to pay 1/3 of an incoming player's salary, then the $9M flex space buys $27M in annual salary. That could be 2-3 quality players.

 

If we have to trade for a player in April, we'll probably have to use all the wiggle room we have, unless we decide to trade a top prospect or young player like Swihart for a cost controlled player.

 

[moonslav59]

Him starting was a small sample size too. 22+Innings Starting vs 17+ innings Relieving, there's still a 20 run difference. Does no one else think that's startling?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=kellyjo05&year=2016&t=p#sprel_extra::none

 

Yes, but are we sure it's related to starting vs relieving or early season vs late season?

 

2015:

1st half 5.67

2nd half 3.77 (including August 2.68 and Sept 3.86)

All as a starter with both sample size larger than 2016's..

 

2016:

1st half: 8.46

2nd half: 1.02

[Kimmi]

I'd rather keep Swihart. There is no reason to assume Vazquez and Leon are a solution for the immediate future.

 

If not for his salary, the Sox could probably trade Swihart for David Robertson yesterday.

 

At this point, I'd definitely rather keep Swihart than trade him.

 

That said, I think I'm a little more hopeful with Vaz and Leon than you are. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. But there is something about defensive oriented catchers that really floats my boat. I don't care about offense at the catching position.

[notin]

If a key player gets hurt in July, and we only have to pay 1/3 of an incoming player's salary, then the $9M flex space buys $27M in annual salary. That could be 2-3 quality players.

 

If we have to trade for a player in April, we'll probably have to use all the wiggle room we have, unless we decide to trade a top prospect or young player like Swihart for a cost controlled player.

 

 

Or build up some depth now and see if the problem cannot be solved internally...

[Kimmi]

A contending team is also less likely to break up their bullpen and trade a useful reliever.

 

Such a team would probably look elsewhere for a catcher and deal away players they are not counting on to contend...

 

Fair point.

[Emp9]

"Only Kelly is returning, and how much can we expect him to be better than 1.23?

 

Thornburg can hopefully replace Uehara, and maybe Smith can replace Ziegler's half season with us, but if Kelly does well replacing Taz, who replaces 2016's Kelly?"

 

I thought Ross had a fine season last year and a quick glance at his numbers show he's been trending in the right direct, WHIP, H/9, SO/9, ERA, HR/9....

[notin]

At this point, I'd definitely rather keep Swihart than trade him.

 

That said, I think I'm a little more hopeful with Vaz and Leon than you are. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. But there is something about defensive oriented catchers that really floats my boat. I don't care about offense at the catching position.

 

Defense-oriented catchers are not hard to find. Defense-oriented catchers who can hit are. So if Leon or Vazquez don't hit - and if either does, he becomes less likely trade bait - it won't be hard to find other equal alternatives on teams willing to take AA players as opposed to key components from the bullpen. ...

[Emp9]

Yes, but are we sure it's related to starting vs relieving or early season vs late season?

 

2015:

1st half 5.67

2nd half 3.77 (including August 2.68 and Sept 3.86)

All as a starter with both sample size larger than 2016's..

 

2016:

1st half: 8.46

2nd half: 1.02

 

That's a fair point. I guess we don't know since the 1st half (8.46)/2nd half (1.02) is identical to his SP (8.46) vs RP (1.02). Could be a little confirmation bias on my part, but I love the way he's trending as a reliever regardless. I guess we'll find out. Still, it's easier to pull a RP than a SP.

[moonslav59]

"Only Kelly is returning, and how much can we expect him to be better than 1.23?

 

Thornburg can hopefully replace Uehara, and maybe Smith can replace Ziegler's half season with us, but if Kelly does well replacing Taz, who replaces 2016's Kelly?"

 

I thought Ross had a fine season last year and a quick glance at his numbers show he's been trending in the right direct, WHIP, H/9, SO/9, ERA, HR/9....

 

I like Ross too, but like I said, we have to pin our hopes on someone improving over 2016's numbers (except Kelly's small sample size of greatness) to do better than Taz did.

 

Ross is probably our best hope in replacing Taz. One of the greatest mysteries to me last year was why Ross, who was pitching better than in 2015, saw less IP'd in 2016.

 

It's like Farrell avoided him, even when he was doing well, especially when it "counted".

 

IP

2015 60.2

2016 55.1

 

IP Late & Close and High Leverage

2015: 65 (.739 OPS against) and 51 (.655 OPS against)

2016 64 (.553 OPS against) and 40 (.364 OPS against)

[notin]

"Only Kelly is returning, and how much can we expect him to be better than 1.23?

 

Thornburg can hopefully replace Uehara, and maybe Smith can replace Ziegler's half season with us, but if Kelly does well replacing Taz, who replaces 2016's Kelly?"

 

I thought Ross had a fine season last year and a quick glance at his numbers show he's been trending in the right direct, WHIP, H/9, SO/9, ERA, HR/9....

 

Looking for arm-for-arm replacements in the bullpen is a silly venture.

 

How about having Chris Sale in the rotation over last season's back of yhe rotation starters taking up some innings and reducing the bullpen workload?

[moonslav59]

Looking for arm-for-arm replacements in the bullpen is a silly venture.

 

How about having Chris Sale in the rotation over last season's back of yhe rotation starters taking up some innings and reducing the bullpen workload?

 

We've discussed that already. It has not been ignored.

 

The "silly venture" would be taking Wright and his 6.5IP per start out of the rotation.

 

The silly venture is thinking only Thornburg and the promise of a returning, effective Smith at some point is enough to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa.

 

I'm not saying our pen weakness is going to cripple us, I have even mentioned how our hands seem to be tied, since adding significant salary via RP'er free agency or trading top prospects for a cost-controlled RP'er both look like untenable solutions.

 

I realize our best option appears to be to try and fill in depth with minor league signings and let the cards sort themselves out. Hopefully, we won't need to fill a major role until well into the season, where contracts taken on are pro-rated, and salary dumps are more available than now.

[Emp9]

Looking for arm-for-arm replacements in the bullpen is a silly venture.

 

How about having Chris Sale in the rotation over last season's back of yhe rotation starters taking up some innings and reducing the bullpen workload?

 

That's the main reason I'm more optimistic. Our top 3 SP do what they're expected to do ( go deep into game). Not to mention one out of Wright, Pom, or ERod have a good to great year ( to put another way, there are reason's I don't expect all of them to fail ), that makes 4 as a whole... typically.. or more times than not. Our Starters should eat more innings than last year. After Kimbrel and Thornburg, (leaving Smith out of the equation for now), If Kelly and Ross do more of the same, we should be in good shape for the season. The play-offs vs Cleveland, that's another story. If Pom could pull a Bauer for us, that would be very helpful.

[Slasher9]

is DD still our player personnel decision maker? is Swihart considered a prospect?

if you answered "yes" to the above questions..... dont get attached to him.......

[mvp 78]

I thought Ross had a fine season last year and a quick glance at his numbers show he's been trending in the right direct, WHIP, H/9, SO/9, ERA, HR/9....

 

Ross is the most underrated player on this team.

[a700hitter]

I like Ross too, but like I said, we have to pin our hopes on someone improving over 2016's numbers (except Kelly's small sample size of greatness) to do better than Taz did.

 

Ross is probably our best hope in replacing Taz. One of the greatest mysteries to me last year was why Ross, who was pitching better than in 2015, saw less IP'd in 2016.

 

It's like Farrell avoided him, even when he was doing well, especially when it "counted".

 

IP

2015 60.2

2016 55.1

 

IP Late & Close and High Leverage

2015: 65 (.739 OPS against) and 51 (.655 OPS against)

2016 64 (.553 OPS against) and 40 (.364 OPS against)

When is Ross expected back from surgery?