2017 Rotation

[harmony]

It should be interesting to see how the market plays out.

 

I almost hope they trade Buch soon, just to find out if I was right or wrong about his value.

It's sometimes difficult to distinguish between intentionally false news and mere negligently bad reporting. This piece includes the line: "Chris Buccholz also has a tem option for 2017."

 

http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/88504/20161212/mlb-news-rumors-clay-buccholz-trading-block-teams-prefer-drew.htm

 

The article also includes these quotes:

 

Clay Buchholz will earn $13.5 million next season. Other interested teams like the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners are turned off by Clay Buchholz salary because they think that's too high.

 

Clay Buccholz, meanwhile is wildly inconsistent. The right-handed pitcher can be great on some games, and a nightmare on other games. Chris Buccholz also has a tem option for 2017.

[Bellhorn04]

It's sometimes difficult to distinguish between intentionally false news and mere negligently bad reporting. This piece includes the line: "Chris Buccholz also has a tem option for 2017."

 

http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/88504/20161212/mlb-news-rumors-clay-buccholz-trading-block-teams-prefer-drew.htm

 

The article also includes these quotes:

 

GameNGuide? Yeah, that doesn't look like state-of-the art journalism there. Looks like it was written by a 15-year old.

[moonslav59]

Trade may not happen until spring training when someone goes down.

 

Or, April-May, but we run the risk of Buch going down as we wait for someone else to go down first.

[harmony]

After reading that Seattle is interested in Tampa Bay starters:

 

 

... I couldn't help drawing parallels between the potentially available pitchers for the Red Sox and the Rays.

 

Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb are inconsistent righthanders with only one year of team control. Steamer had projected 2017 WAR of 1.7* in 23 starts for Buchholz and 1.6 in 21 starts for Cobb but Buchholz is owed $13.5 million in 2017 while Cobb is projected to earn only $4 million.

 

Drew Pomeranz and Drew Smyly are lefthanders with two years of team control. Steamer projects 2017 WAR of 2.3 in 147 innings over 34 appearances, including 24 starts, for Pomeranz and 2.5 in 164 innings over 28 starts for Smyly. Pomeranz is projected to earn $4.7 million and Smyly $6.9 million.

 

It should be fascinating to see how the market shakes out.

 

* Steamer revised the Buchholz projected WAR down to 0.5 in 37 innings following the Chris Sale trade but I use the original projected WAR of 1.7 for comparison purposes

Edited December 13, 2016 by harmony

[southpaw777]

Kopech could come back to bite us in the ass, but theres also a good chance he winds up in the bullpen. He'll be good there, but I think it's more probable that he becomes one of the best closers in baseball than an ACE.

 

I think he's more likely to become the next chapman than the next Syndergaad.

 

I still hate the Pomeranz trade. Sale is gone in 3 years, so is Porcello, and Price could opt out. Pomeranz didn't help us last year down the stretch and we may have bought high on him. He's still yet to have ever pitch a full year healthy in a MLB rotation. Seeing how he didn't help us, and Sale makes him expendable now I really wish we didn't give up one of the best young pitching prospects in the game for him.

 

Just curious as to why you think that?

He needs to get some control, but thats not a big deal for a 20yo. Hes got good, not great secondary pitches, althouh his slider will probably be a plus. His pitches are good enough right now to work off a 100+MPH FB. That gives him more time to develop the secondary pitches. Lester used to overpower guys when he was young with good, but not all great secondary stuff. It wasnt until he lost some velocity when he had to become a pitcher. So why do you think he cant cut it as a starter?

[southpaw777]

There is never a shortage of prospects. If you have good scouts, there should be no problem with restocking. Major league top line starting pitching is the rarest of commodities.

 

I dont get all the worry from some folks here. How many of those prospects that we traded are going to be a big impact in MLB? A couple? Three? Three years is a long ass time in MLB to restock the farm. Besides, comparing our farm the last couple years to future farm systems isnt fair. Realistically, when was the last time we had as potent of a system from top to bottom before this last run? Its not realistic to have a system like that year in and year out...doesnt happen.

I do think we can restock the farm with a top ten system within three years though.

[Slasher9]

Chris Buchholz > David Price

[notin]

Chris Buchholz > David Price

 

That wouldn't bode well for 2017...

[notin]

I dont get all the worry from some folks here. How many of those prospects that we traded are going to be a big impact in MLB? A couple? Three? Three years is a long ass time in MLB to restock the farm. Besides, comparing our farm the last couple years to future farm systems isnt fair. Realistically, when was the last time we had as potent of a system from top to bottom before this last run? Its not realistic to have a system like that year in and year out...doesnt happen.

I do think we can restock the farm with a top ten system within three years though.

 

It's not all about whether or not the prospects turn out to be any good. A highly-ranked prospects himself has a trade value, and if you don't have prospects anyone wants, trades become far, far more difficult..

[moonslav59]

How many of those prospects that we traded are going to be a big impact in MLB? A couple? Three?

I'd guess 4-5 out of these guys:

Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi, Basabe, Asuaje, Guerra, Pennington

 

 

Three years is a long ass time in MLB to restock the farm.

 

Even if we do "restock" the farm over the next 3 years to a decent level, hardly any will be ready until 5-8 years from now. How's that help us 4-5 years from now?

 

Yes, we have Devers to replace Pablo or Moreland. We might get lucky with Travis replacing Moreland or HanRam. Maybe Groome can replace Buch or Pom, but who are we going to draft in the next 3 years from a 25-30 slot that will be ready to replace Porcello, Bogey, JBJ, Betts, Vaz & Swi, Pom and circumstance?

[moonslav59]

It's not all about whether or not the prospects turn out to be any good. A highly-ranked prospects himself has a trade value, and if you don't have prospects anyone wants, trades become far, far more difficult..

 

Exactly. Look what Kelly got us. Even the fallen prospect, Lars Anderson, got us Steven Wright.

[notin]

Exactly. Look what Kelly got us. Even the fallen prospect, Lars Anderson, got us Steven Wright.

 

I think of prospects as lottery tickets. As this is the holiday season, many people will be giving them as gifts, and they even get advertised as such.

 

If you've ever given a lottery ticket as a gift, you know you might have given away a fortune. But the most likely scenario is you really just gave away a cheap gift with very little thought involved...

[moonslav59]

I think of prospects as lottery tickets. As this is the holiday season, many people will be giving them as gifts, and they even get advertised as such.

 

If you've ever given a lottery ticket as a gift, you know you might have given away a fortune. But the most likely scenario is you really just gave away a cheap gift with very little thought involved...

 

Moncada is like giving 5 million lottery tickets in a lotter with a one in 5.1 million chance of winning.

[notin]

Moncada is like giving 5 million lottery tickets in a lotter with a one in 5.1 million chance of winning.

 

And a $63mill pricetag...

[moonslav59]

And a $63mill pricetag...

 

Good point.

 

Most of the people I know would rather get a $63M gift than 5 million lottery tickets.

[Hugh2]

How many of those prospects that we traded are going to be a big impact in MLB? A couple? Three?

I'd guess 4-5 out of these guys:

Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi, Basabe, Asuaje, Guerra, Pennington

 

 

Three years is a long ass time in MLB to restock the farm.

 

Even if we do "restock" the farm over the next 3 years to a decent level, hardly any will be ready until 5-8 years from now. How's that help us 4-5 years from now?

 

Yes, we have Devers to replace Pablo or Moreland. We might get lucky with Travis replacing Moreland or HanRam. Maybe Groome can replace Buch or Pom, but who are we going to draft in the next 3 years from a 25-30 slot that will be ready to replace Porcello, Bogey, JBJ, Betts, Vaz & Swi, Pom and circumstance?

 

In hindsight, Guerra has taken a HUGE step back, while Asuaje went from being a throw in to a guy who looks like he was a bright MLB future. I think within reasonable certainty you can project the high end prospects to definitely be MLB players the question is in what capacity. I could easily see Moncada being a good player but not a perennial all star, I can see Kopech never fully putting it together but being a late inning reliever with that arm.

[moonslav59]

In hindsight, Guerra has taken a HUGE step back, while Asuaje went from being a throw in to a guy who looks like he was a bright MLB future. I think within reasonable certainty you can project the high end prospects to definitely be MLB players the question is in what capacity. I could easily see Moncada being a good player but not a perennial all star, I can see Kopech never fully putting it together but being a late inning reliever with that arm.

 

Yes, those results are not beyond the scope of reason.

Yes, Guerra took a big step back, but he's not toast yet.

I think there is a very good chance 2-3 out of Espi, Margot, Basabe, Asuaje or a sleeper do very well in the bigs.

I'm not talking role player good.

I think Moncada is about as sure a bet as can be.

I'd put Kopech's floor at being a top set-up man in MLB but admit I can be wrong.

 

There's also a chance someone else from this list surprises everybody:

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

[southpaw777]

How many of those prospects that we traded are going to be a big impact in MLB? A couple? Three?

I'd guess 4-5 out of these guys:

Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi, Basabe, Asuaje, Guerra, Pennington

 

 

Three years is a long ass time in MLB to restock the farm.

 

Even if we do "restock" the farm over the next 3 years to a decent level, hardly any will be ready until 5-8 years from now. How's that help us 4-5 years from now?

 

Yes, we have Devers to replace Pablo or Moreland. We might get lucky with Travis replacing Moreland or HanRam. Maybe Groome can replace Buch or Pom, but who are we going to draft in the next 3 years from a 25-30 slot that will be ready to replace Porcello, Bogey, JBJ, Betts, Vaz & Swi, Pom and circumstance?

 

If you draft some college kids it wont take 5-8 years. We can make trades for guys who are near ready and/or younger kids with a coup,e years left of development...there are many ways to do it...5-8 years is not realistic unless your drafting all high schiool kids

[moonslav59]

We're talking drafting over the next 1-4 years.

 

Yes, maybe a college kids we draft 244th this year might be ready in 2-4 years, but not the guys we pick year 2-4.

 

Besides, do we really want to pass up a better HS pick, so we can get a guy ready quicker?

 

I never said it was impossible, but we don't have a good record with our 16-35 picks, especially non-comp picks.

[harmony]

After reading that Seattle is interested in Tampa Bay starters:

 

 

... I couldn't help drawing parallels between the potentially available pitchers for the Red Sox and the Rays.

 

Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb are inconsistent righthanders with only one year of team control. Steamer had projected 2017 WAR of 1.7* in 23 starts for Buchholz and 1.6 in 21 starts for Cobb but Buchholz is owed $13.5 million in 2017 while Cobb is projected to earn only $4 million.

 

Drew Pomeranz and Drew Smyly are lefthanders with two years of team control. Steamer projects 2017 WAR of 2.3 in 147 innings over 34 appearances, including 24 starts, for Pomeranz and 2.5 in 164 innings over 28 starts for Smyly. Pomeranz is projected to earn $4.7 million and Smyly $6.9 million.

 

It should be fascinating to see how the market shakes out.

 

* Steamer revised the Buchholz projected WAR down to 0.5 in 37 innings following the Chris Sale trade but I use the original projected WAR of 1.7 for comparison purposes

I posted the same comparisons to a Tampa Bay Ray website and got this response about the relative value of Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb:

I think Buchholz and Cobb are on two different levels

If you take out Cobbs starts from last year (which were big league rehab starts on a team whose season was lost), he is a front of the rotation guy. Buchholz on the other hand has shown over the last three years he is done in the top of the rotation. Yes Cobb has risk coming back from TJ but I value him higher then Smyly and only less then Odor because of years of control.

 

Posted by Jake5393 on Dec 13, 2016 | 4:12 PM

http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/12/13931508/mariners-show-interest-in-rays-starters

[moonslav59]

I value Cobb higher than Buch, even if the contracts were equal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cobb had TJS then a myriad of injuries coming back from it. Bunch has glass body syndrome, no precipitating surgeries. Cobb is better than Buch at this stage of their respective careers, Cobb just needs to be healthy

[southpaw777]

We're talking drafting over the next 1-4 years.

 

Yes, maybe a college kids we draft 244th this year might be ready in 2-4 years, but not the guys we pick year 2-4.

 

Besides, do we really want to pass up a better HS pick, so we can get a guy ready quicker?

 

I never said it was impossible, but we don't have a good record with our 16-35 picks, especially non-comp picks.

 

And there are always 3 years of possible trades. Not as hard as some make it out to be. Yes, you have to do a good job evaluating talent in trades, and DD has a pretty good record getting good mlb value out of his trades.

Im agreeing with you on the basis of its not easy for anyone to scout and develop and find that gem. A lot of times it kinda comes out of almost nowhere..Its a tough game and kids who you think cant miss, all of a sudden get exposed at higher levels and MLB. I Dont know how many kids who look great all thru AAA but can never seem to put it all together at the MLB level...and that goes for every level. Injuries happen and things we really cant predict as well...

The great thing is is we have the money to sign a bunch of our young kids whenits time and we've got some kids already down there in positions of need. We've got some younger kids in the lower levels that I'm thinking a couple of them are going to break out this year and they are going to get noticed...I wont overthink this until theres a real concern...three years is a long time in MLB.

[jacksonianmarch]

Two of your top 3 prospects were drafted 12th or higher. You're not seeing that talent for the next 3 years

[S5Dewey]

Two of your top 3 prospects were drafted 12th or higher. You're not seeing that talent for the next 3 years

 

Which fits perfectly because we shouldn't need this talent for the next three seasons.

[moonslav59]

Two of your top 3 prospects were drafted 12th or higher. You're not seeing that talent for the next 3 years

 

We are going to have to do things with our draft that we rarely have done in the last 11-12 years: draft quality prospects after the 20th pick.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, but it's going to have to be a new paradigm. Until I see it, I will remain skeptical.

[moonslav59]

Which fits perfectly because we shouldn't need this talent for the next three seasons.

 

The next three drafts are what builds for years 4-7.

 

We have Devers, Swihart, Travis and Groome in the wings now to handle the next three years- hopefully, but the next three years of young talent acquisition, starting with the next draft, is what our extended outlook will be like.

[Hugh2]

Which fits perfectly because we shouldn't need this talent for the next three seasons.

 

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now?

 

Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system.

 

It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars.

 

We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

[moonslav59]

That's fine, but what happens when we need it in 5-6 years from now?

 

Whatever position you will need to fill in 2020 (just picking a year to make a point) you'd need to have that talent in your system between 2015-2018 unless you go outside the system.

 

It takes 3-5 years to develop talent, so if we aren't getting that talent over the next couple of years we will HAVE to go outside the organization and pay FA prices. Now we will have all the money in the world by 2021, but I also suspect some people will be signed from here to there and presumably some will be big money extensions to our superstars.

 

We could always draft a gem in the 2nd or 5th rounds, but at this point luck is just as relevant if not more than skill when drafting stars there.

 

Exactly, and my point is that if we keep drafting like we have for the last 11-12 years after the 15th pick, the odds are stacked heavily against our rebuilding the farm to a substantially higher level than it is right now.

 

Since 2006:

 

(Non comp picks)

16-35:

26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14

24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12

28 R Fuentes 09

30 C Kelly 08

27 J Place 06

 

36+:

51 Chatham (118 Dalbec) 16

67 S Travis 14

37 P Light 12

172 Betts 11

77 Wilson 09

85 S Fife 08

6th Rd A Rizzo 07

2nd Rd Masterson 06

 

Comp Picks:

16-35:

19 Barnes, Swihart 11

20 Vitek 10

28 D Bard 06

23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05

 

36+

36 Owens, 40 JBJ 11

36 Brentz, 39 Ranaudo, 57 Workman 10

42 Buchholz, 45 Lowrie, 47 Bowden 05

 

As you can see, out of all the non comp picks we've had since 2006 after pick 15, we've drafted Kopech (2014), Betts (2011) & Rizzo (2007).

 

Basically, we've drafted one significant player every 3-4 years without the aid of comp picks or high draft picks. One might argue about not counting Kopech yet, so that would be two in 11 years.

 

Magically, we are now thinking we can rebuild the farm in 3 years, so prospects will be ready from 4 to 7 years out.

 

Much of our farm was built on international signings, and we still have hopes in this area, but the restrictions on winning and large market teams have increased. It might not be as easy in this area either. Here is a list of our free significant international agent singings:

 

14-15 Castillo ($70M+), Moncada ($60M+), Espinoza $1.8M bonus

13-14 Devers $1.5M bonus, J Diaz $600K, Hinojosa $4M

12-13 Guerra $610K, Rijo $575M, Basabe $450K, Basabe $450K

11-12 Margot $800K, T-W Lin $2M

10-11 J Aro, Linares $750K

09-10 Bogaerts $510K, Iggy $6.25M, F Montas

08-09 Tazawa $1.8M

07-08 M Almanzar $1.5M, R Mendez $125K

06-07 Dice-K, Okajima

 

I think our best hope is with international signings, but we'll have a smaller budget and tougher penalties for going over.

[Slasher9]

what we have going forward will surely depend on whether DD is our GM or not. if DD is GM you can count on the farm to continue to be gutted. it's what he does. it's what many of us said would happen on the day he was hired. it is exactly what has happened.

 

I'm just glad the latest deal got us an actual Ace.