2016 Winter Meetings

[moonslav59]

My issue is not with the Sale trade, per se. Or with the Thornburg trade, which I actually like quite a bit. My issue is with the overall body of work that Dombrowski has done in 18 months, namely, gutting the farm. This was my concern with Dombrowski since day one.

 

He certainly has lived up to his hype. DD has basically traded away all but 3 of our best prospects plus a few borderline ones. I'm glad we still have Beni, Devers and Groome, but it's not going to be nearly as easy to rebuild the farm than it seems some people here think it is. There are new international spending restrictions, and just plain winning is going to hurt our draft possibilities.

 

I understand that part of the reason for building a strong farm is to be able to trade for players like Sale. The Sale trade in and of itself would be acceptable, even though we paid a steep price. Gutting a well stocked farm system to 'win now' is not acceptable.

 

To me, if we just took back the Espi-Pom trade, I'd be okay with the "balance" made to win now and still keep a viable farm for the extended future. We have so many young players on the 25 man roster, that I am not worried about the next 2-3 years on the farm. I'm worried about year 4 and 5 and beyond. Devers will be on the 25 man roster with a few years to go by then, but all we have for year 4>> is Groome. Anybody who thinks we can rebuild the farm with multiple, quality players that will be MLB ready in 4-5 years is dreaming.

 

Sure, this team is now in very good shape for about 3 years. But we were in very good shape for 7-8 years, or more, when we had a farm system.

 

What upset me the most about the purge of 2012 was that I thought we played it half way. I thought we should have gone into rebuild mode and gotten more and better prospects rather than ML players or go for broke and try to win it all. Well, we ended up winning it in 2013 by "playing it half way". That proved to me that it can be done. I do admit it appeared Ben was hoarding prospects, but I do believe his plan all along was to trade some of them to fill some key needs, but to keep a better "balance" into the extended future.

 

DD's philosophy is clearly to win it all now. Not trading Groome is like a carrot trying to placate the long term people. It's not going to be enough. This team is going to have serious staffing issues in 4-8 years. Trying to explain away this fact by saying "we'll rebuild the farm again may be true to a small extent, but times have gotten a lot harder for big spenders to stack the farm.

 

I understand your pain, and I'm not going to pretend we'll be okay in 4-8 years, but I am fine with everything, except the Espi deal. We should win at least once in the next 2-3 years, and that's great. We should be able to keep most of our top young talent into the longer term, so we shouldn't be a last place team, but not having the next Betts, Bogey, Beni and JBJ to fill the roster with great talent at a super low dcost is eventually going to bite us in the ass.

 

I'm not going to sugar coat the truth. We should win in the next 2-3, maybe 4 years, and then it;'s going to be wake-up time for some fans here.

[mvp 78]

Until it comes back to bite them, I'm not concerned about "gutting" the system. 95% of the players moved over the past have gone on to be less than what is traded for. The only exceptions I can think of are Jeff Bagwell and Anthony Rizzo.

[mvp 78]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2016-rule-5-draft-results.html

 

Sox grabbed Josh Rutledge in the Rule V draft. This made me chuckle.

[a700hitter]

Agreed.

But, what's done is done. We may as well sit back and watch the Sox be competitive, while it lasts.

The real test for DD will be seeing which of the core of young Sox players he can hang on to, in the next 3 to 4 years.

 

Can't wait for the "Why don't we have any major league ready players" whine to kick in.

 

DD has built a great team, on paper.

But he hasn't won s*** yet.

I'm hoping Sale takes less time to "settle in" than Price and Porcello have.

He has won a Division. This ownership group has won only 3 of those since 2002

[Hugh2]

He has won a Division. This ownership group has won only 3 of those since 2002

 

The ownership group also has 3 world series to 0.

[Bellhorn04]

The ownership group also has 3 world series to 0.

 

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

[Hugh2]

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

 

They are, very often it's one of the best teams but not necessarily the best team to win it all. It's all about getting hot.

 

This is why I think the argument has merit that it might be better to try and build a competitive team every year than go all in and mortgage the future.

[notin]

Until it comes back to bite them, I'm not concerned about "gutting" the system. 95% of the players moved over the past have gone on to be less than what is traded for. The only exceptions I can think of are Jeff Bagwell and Anthony Rizzo.

 

Off the top of head, Josh Reddick.

[moonslav59]

He has won a Division. This ownership group has won only 3 of those since 2002

 

Whoop-dee-freakin-doo!

 

The AL central has been about as strong as AAA baseball during DD's years there.

 

Just win me rings, baby!

[notin]

They are, very often it's one of the best teams but not necessarily the best team to win it all. It's all about getting hot.

 

This is why I think the argument has merit that it might be better to try and build a competitive team every year than go all in and mortgage the future.

 

Agreed.

 

Per Billy Beane, "[Management's] job is to get to the post-season. Once you're in, it's all luck."

[Jack Flap]

Can't wait for the "Why don't we have any major league ready players" whine to kick in.

 

Everyone will have to get used to the fact that we won't be getting much out of the farm for a few years, which is simply the price of all of these trades. I expect Travis will be in the 1B conversation at some point this year, and we could see Devers some time in 2018-19. Maybe Owens or Johnson figures it out now that we've basically lowered our expectations to nil. Other than that, it looks bleak...but again, having the major league team basically set for the next 2-3 years makes that a lot easier to stomach.

 

I've quibbled with some of Dombrowski's deals, but I'm content to sit back and see what happens now. As others have pointed out, this team has a very well-defined window to win before a lot of decisions have to be made around 2019 or so. What happens during that time will determine how we ultimately look back on these moves.

[sk7326]

No doubt the moves that Dombrowski has made have made us a better team. We are most definitely all in and should be strong favorites in the AL.

 

My issue is not with the Sale trade, per se. Or with the Thornburg trade, which I actually like quite a bit. My issue is with the overall body of work that Dombrowski has done in 18 months, namely, gutting the farm. This was my concern with Dombrowski since day one.

 

I understand that part of the reason for building a strong farm is to be able to trade for players like Sale. The Sale trade in and of itself would be acceptable, even though we paid a steep price. Gutting a well stocked farm system to 'win now' is not acceptable.

 

Sure, this team is now in very good shape for about 3 years. But we were in very good shape for 7-8 years, or more, when we had a farm system.

 

I share your concern - will he keep the kids coming. I think it is an open question.

[harmony]

Whoop-dee-freakin-doo!

 

The AL central has been about as strong as AAA baseball during DD's years there.

 

Just win me rings, baby!

The AL Central has represented the American League in the World Series in four of the past five seasons. The AL East has represented the American League in the World Series only once in the past seven seasons.

[a700hitter]

Whoop-dee-freakin-doo!

 

The AL central has been about as strong as AAA baseball during DD's years there.

 

Just win me rings, baby!

Winning a Division is not nothing. 3 Division titles since 2002 and 3 last place finishes (all Ben), and winning a Division is a heck of a lot more fun than finishing last. Bobby Cox made it to the Hall winning Divisions-- only 1World Championship.

[sk7326]

Everyone will have to get used to the fact that we won't be getting much out of the farm for a few years, which is simply the price of all of these trades. I expect Travis will be in the 1B conversation at some point this year, and we could see Devers some time in 2018-19. Maybe Owens or Johnson figures it out now that we've basically lowered our expectations to nil. Other than that, it looks bleak...but again, having the major league team basically set for the next 2-3 years makes that a lot easier to stomach.

 

I've quibbled with some of Dombrowski's deals, but I'm content to sit back and see what happens now. As others have pointed out, this team has a very well-defined window to win before a lot of decisions have to be made around 2019 or so. What happens during that time will determine how we ultimately look back on these moves.

 

That part is fine - the question is whether the high A sort of ranks are still flowing with the same amount of star potential. We know there will be attrition - that's baseball. But this org has been successful at getting tons of ceiling into the org - especially relative to their draft spots. Will that persist?

[moonslav59]

Winning a Division is not nothing. 3 Division titles since 2002 and 3 last place finishes (all Ben), and winning a Division is a heck of a lot more fun than finishing last. Bobby Cox made it to the Hall winning Divisions-- only 1World Championship.

 

Winning the AL Central is like finishing 2nd or 3rd in the AL East.

 

I repeat- whoop-dee-freakin-doo.

 

I'll take the rings, even if it means a few last place finishes in the strongest division in the history of the world.

 

I hope to hell DD doesn't go as long as Bobby C and win just one ring, but if he does, it better be with us in the next 3 years, or you're going to have to create a new ID.

[Jack Flap]

Until it comes back to bite them, I'm not concerned about "gutting" the system. 95% of the players moved over the past have gone on to be less than what is traded for. The only exceptions I can think of are Jeff Bagwell and Anthony Rizzo.

 

True, but I think you have to consider the trades that weren't made alongside the ones that were. Lots of people wanted to trade Lester and possibly Ellsbury for Johan Santana once upon a time, and we know how that would have worked out. Bogaerts for Cliff Lee was a hot rumor in 2013 (right before Lee dropped off a cliff). Quite a few fans would have traded Betts and run Bradley out of town long ago if given the opportunity.

 

We'd have a lot more regrets right now if we'd traded off young talent as carelessly as some advocate for. We'll be able to judge in a few years whether the loss of Moncada, Epinoza, Kopech, Margot, and others was worth it.

[moonslav59]

That part is fine - the question is whether the high A sort of ranks are still flowing with the same amount of star potential. We know there will be attrition - that's baseball. But this org has been successful at getting tons of ceiling into the org - especially relative to their draft spots. Will that persist?

 

Great post. Much shorter and direct than I could have put it.

 

The new rules have changed the talent acquisition equation.

 

[sk7326]

Winning the AL Central is like finishing 2nd or 3rd in the AL East.

 

I repeat- whoop-dee-freakin-doo.

 

I'll take the rings, even if it means a few last place finishes in the strongest division in the history of the world.

 

I hope to hell DD doesn't go as long as Bobby C and win just one ring, but if he does, it better be with us in the next 3 years, or you're going to have to create a new ID.

 

It is harder to generate chances (and more controllable). This is baseball, a GM cannot actually win the World Series ... take the team to the water and see what happens.

[Emp9]

That part is fine - the question is whether the high A sort of ranks are still flowing with the same amount of star potential. We know there will be attrition - that's baseball. But this org has been successful at getting tons of ceiling into the org - especially relative to their draft spots. Will that persist?

 

Exactly. I mean, Betts was a 5th round pick, both Shaw & Vazquez a 9th round pick. It's more than just your 1st or 2nd pick. If things start to look ugly 2-3-4 years from now, in all fairness DD is very familiar with fire sales and building back up. I think it's important to point out red flag areas like not getting enough back from these past 5 or 6 trades for example, especially during a time Sox are being penalized from the International market. It's good to honest about it. But if you look at what the Yankees did this past season and the trades they made to continue building, maybe it won't take as long as we think? That's also exciting to me, the way BC built our farm. To me that side of it can be almost as exciting as DD's recent moves. It's not like I won't be a fan of a last place Red Sox team in 5 years from now if that were to happen.

[mvp 78]

Off the top of head, Josh Reddick.

 

Nope. He had one great season after being traded. He's a good player, but not someone you lose sleep over after trading.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. I mean, Betts was a 5th round pick, both Shaw & Vazquez a 9th round pick. It's more than just your 1st or 2nd pick. If things start to look ugly 2-3-4 years from now, in all fairness DD is very familiar with fire sales and building back up. I think it's important to point out red flag areas like not getting enough back from these past 5 or 6 trades for example, especially during a time Sox are being penalized from the International market. It's good to honest about it. But if you look at what the Yankees did this past season and the trades they made to continue building, maybe it won't take as long as we think? That's also exciting to me, the way BC built our farm. To me that side of it can be almost as exciting as DD's recent moves. It's not like I won't be a fan of a last place Red Sox team in 5 years from now if that were to happen.

 

Look at Detroit's farm system last year and this year. That's part of what DDism creates.

[Bellhorn04]

Whoop-dee-freakin-doo!

 

The AL central has been about as strong as AAA baseball during DD's years there.

 

Just win me rings, baby!

 

DD's Tigers may have been in a weak division, but they did make it to the World Series twice and the ALCS 4 times.

[moonslav59]

Nope. He had one great season after being traded. He's a good player, but not someone you lose sleep over after trading.

 

True, but the point was did the player traded away create more value after the trade than what we got in return.

 

I see other examples:

 

Melancon for Hanrahan & Holt

 

Lowrie & Weiland for Melancon (if you just count his time here)

 

HanRam and Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell (if you just count the control years of the original trade, and maybe even if you don't)

 

Stephen Fife for Mirabelli

 

Iggy and Montas for Peavy (who netted us Hembree & Escobar)

 

Lackey for Kelly & Craig

 

Cespedes and A Wilson for Porcello (if you only count the year of control we got from Rick)

 

 

[moonslav59]

DD's Tigers may have been in a weak division, but they did make it to the World Series twice and the ALCS 4 times.

 

I'm not sure if out of all the times they made it, those odds are actually lower than random. Therefore, they may not be "selling points" in DD's favor.

Edited December 8, 2016 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

True, but the point was did the player traded away create more value after the trade than what we got in return.

 

No, that wasn't the point I made with my original post. I said there weren't many prospects that were traded who came back to bite them in the ass, not that they never ever lost a trade.

[Emp9]

Look at Detroit's farm system last year and this year. That's part of what DDism creates.

 

Oh, I'm not denying that. But DD did have a fire sale with the Marlins after winning a WS ('97) and much of what he acquired helped them win another WS ('03) a few years later ( even though he wasn't technically with the team when they won that 2nd one). One question that probably can't be answered about DD & Detriot is, would their future look any better right now if he stayed on? I'm simply playing devil's advocate here. Your points are factual. I'm just not totally convinced he's inept at making good longer term deals from the other side of the fence when you take his whole career into account.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure if out of all the times they made it, those odds are actually lower than random. Therefore, they may not be "selling points" in DD's favor.

 

They only made it to the playoffs 5 times so 4 out of 5 times to the ALCS is 80%.

[sk7326]

Exactly. I mean, Betts was a 5th round pick, both Shaw & Vazquez a 9th round pick. It's more than just your 1st or 2nd pick. If things start to look ugly 2-3-4 years from now, in all fairness DD is very familiar with fire sales and building back up. I think it's important to point out red flag areas like not getting enough back from these past 5 or 6 trades for example, especially during a time Sox are being penalized from the International market. It's good to honest about it. But if you look at what the Yankees did this past season and the trades they made to continue building, maybe it won't take as long as we think? That's also exciting to me, the way BC built our farm. To me that side of it can be almost as exciting as DD's recent moves. It's not like I won't be a fan of a last place Red Sox team in 5 years from now if that were to happen.

 

I am not saying DD has destroyed this team's future. I don't know. It is a fair question to ask. I like all the moves - and if you push major chips, it's for Chris Sale (as opposed to say any closer or Pomeranz). It's fun for our kids to be the core - and ultimately the better way to keep the window of opportunity open for a long time. But that is not DD's timeline anyway - and hey, we have a chance to win it all know. Acknowledging injuries, and just the fact that baseball is fluky - we've maximized our chances to do something special.

 

The ChiSox are going to stink, but with some direction - and it is always fun to see guys on the ground floor. It was one of the charms of our 2016 team, to see the kids blossom.

[moonslav59]

No, that wasn't the point I made with my original post. I said there weren't many prospects that were traded who came back to bite them in the ass, not that they never ever lost a trade.

 

Yes. You are right. I stand corrected.

 

Reddick never bit anyone in the ass.