Dombrowski Referendum

[moonslav59]

If he never had great prospects, that would indicate that his failings with building farm systems resulted from bad drafts and losing picks as compensation for FA's. Just adds some clarity to the picture of his track record.

 

I'm no expert on the history of Tiger prospects. The only one that jumps out is Andrew Miller,but they got Miggy (& Willis) for him, so it's hard to criticize that one.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm no expert on the history of Tiger prospects. The only one that jumps out is Andrew Miller,but they got Miggy (& Willis) for him, so it's hard to criticize that one.

 

 

I think that all good baseball executives are able to adapt to the circumstances & Dombrowski seems to be a sharp enough guy to make solid decisions based on what he has to work with.

 

I know you don't like the Kimbrel deal, but it's looking more & more like he may have been ahead of the game when it came to putting a value on premium relievers, especially if the numbers being thrown around for Jansen & Chapman come to fruition.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[Bellhorn04]

I think that all good baseball executives are able to adapt to the circumstances & Dombrowski seems to be a sharp enough guy to make solid decisions based on what he has to work with.

 

I know you don't like the Kimbrel deal, but it's looking more & more like he may have been ahead of game when it came to putting a value on premium relievers, especially if the numbers being thrown around for Jansen & Chapman come to fruition.

 

Good point.

[moonslav59]

I think that all good baseball executives are able to adapt to the circumstances & Dombrowski seems to be a sharp enough guy to make solid decisions based on what he has to work with.

 

I know you don't like the Kimbrel deal, but it's looking more & more like he may have been ahead of the game when it came to putting a value on premium relievers, especially if the numbers being thrown around for Jansen & Chapman come to fruition.

 

I'm still against the deal, but your point is well taken.

 

At the time, it looked like $13M a year was close to FA money for a closer- that was what bothered me most. We gave up several good prospects for a closer that others got by just signing them. (Although there were no top closers on the FA market that year.).

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure that I will ever be okay with the prices that GMs are paying for relievers. I honestly think that one can build a light's out BP at a fraction of the cost. Relievers are not worth that kind of money. My disdain for costly relievers has more to do with the 4-5 years they are getting rather than the dollar amount.

[notin]

I'm no expert on the history of Tiger prospects. The only one that jumps out is Andrew Miller,but they got Miggy (& Willis) for him, so it's hard to criticize that one.

 

 

Other prospects include Carl Everett, Trevor Hoffman, Cameron Maybin, Jacob Turner, Avisail Garcia and Devon Travis.

 

For the most part, he has held on to his better prospects, or at least gotten good return, such as Hoffman in a deal for Garry Sheffield. But in recent years, he has taken to unloading the top of the Tigers' farm, as bad as it has been. The Travis trade was a particularly bad one in recent years

[moonslav59]

Other prospects include Carl Everett, Trevor Hoffman, Cameron Maybin, Jacob Turner, Avisail Garcia and Devon Travis.

 

For the most part, he has held on to his better prospects, or at least gotten good return, such as Hoffman in a deal for Garry Sheffield. But in recent years, he has taken to unloading the top of the Tigers' farm, as bad as it has been. The Travis trade was a particularly bad one in recent years

 

Thanks. I knew someone would step forward with the details.

[Bellhorn04]

Other prospects include Carl Everett, Trevor Hoffman, Cameron Maybin, Jacob Turner, Avisail Garcia and Devon Travis.

 

For the most part, he has held on to his better prospects, or at least gotten good return, such as Hoffman in a deal for Garry Sheffield. But in recent years, he has taken to unloading the top of the Tigers' farm, as bad as it has been. The Travis trade was a particularly bad one in recent years

 

The Travis trade does look bad. But that's about the only one I can see as a clear-cut bad one.

[moonslav59]

The Travis trade does look bad. But that's about the only one I can see as a clear-cut bad one.

 

How many great prospects did DD ever acquire while with the Tigers?

 

I don't know, but if it was only a handful, and he traded some away in bad trades, then it make him look much worse than if he has 15 great prospects and only made one bad trade from the whole group.

[a700hitter]

How many great prospects did DD ever acquire while with the Tigers?

 

I don't know, but if it was only a handful, and he traded some away in bad trades, then it make him look much worse than if he has 15 great prospects and only made one bad trade from the whole group.

His last trade for the Tigers he got Michael Fulmer.

[Bellhorn04]

He also got Iggy for Avisail Garcia. That looks like a win.

[a700hitter]

He also got Iggy for Avisail Garcia. That looks like a win.

The guy's trades usually help his team. He is pretty good at separating the wheat from the chaff.

[moonslav59]

I did a little research, and I apologize if it is not as complete as it should be, but these are the top prospects DD acquired while with the tigers from 2002-2015:

 

6th C Maybin (10th pick of 2005 draft)

8th Verlander (2nd pick of 2004 draft)

10th A Miller (6th pick of 2006 draft)

21st Porcello (27th pick in 2007)

21st Jacob Turner (9th pick in 2009)

35th J Zumaya (320th pick in 2002)

36th Kyle Sleeth (3rd pick in 2003)

47th Michael Fulmer (44th pick in 2011 by NYM)

47th Casey Crosby (181st in 2007)

57th Granderson (80th pick in 2002)

65th N Castellanos (44th pick in 2010)

74th Av. Garcia (not drafted)

76th A Jackson (259th pick in 2005)

84th Devon Travis (424th in 2012)

95th B Rondin (not drafted)

98th Brent Clevlen (49th pick in 2002)

 

Notables never ranked in top 100:

20th pick 2013: Jonathon Crawford

21st pick 2008: Ryan Perry

22nd pick 2015: Beau Burrows

23rd pick 2014: Derek Hill

 

Prospects inherited: J Bonderman, O Infante, B Inge

68th pick 2010: Drew Smyly

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I did a little research, and I apologize if it is not as complete as it should be, but these are the top prospects DD acquired while with the tigers from 2002-2015:

 

6th C Maybin (10th pick of 2005 draft)

8th Verlander (2nd pick of 2004 draft)

10th A Miller (6th pick of 2006 draft)

21st Porcello (27th pick in 2007)

21st Jacob Turner (9th pick in 2009)

35th J Zumaya (320th pick in 2002)

36th Kyle Sleeth (3rd pick in 2003)

47th Michael Fulmer (44th pick in 2011 by NYM)

47th Casey Crosby (181st in 2007)

57th Granderson (80th pick in 2002)

65th N Castellanos (44th pick in 2010)

74th Av. Garcia (not drafted)

76th A Jackson (259th pick in 2005)

84th Devon Travis (424th in 2012)

95th B Rondin (not drafted)

98th Brent Clevlen (49th pick in 2002)

 

Notables never ranked in top 100:

20th pick 2013: Jonathon Crawford

21st pick 2008: Ryan Perry

22nd pick 2015: Beau Burrows

23rd pick 2014: Derek Hill

 

Prospects inherited: J Bonderman, O Infante, B Inge

68th pick 2010: Drew Smyly

 

 

The Sox have had 4 players ranked in the top 10 since 2002: HanRam, Buch, Bogey & Moncada.

 

They've had 42 different players in the top 100 since 2002. The Tigers: 16.

[notin]

He also got Iggy for Avisail Garcia. That looks like a win.

 

It does.

 

In recent years a big part of the reason Dombrowski has been able to deal lousy prospects for decent major leaguers is that he hasn't had anything but lousy prospects. In thst respect, he had very much resembled Dan Duquette during his tenure in Boston. ..

[moonslav59]

When comparing the Tigers prospects to the Sox prospects from 2002 to 2015, I couldn't help bu be amazed at this:

 

From 2003 to 2014, the Sox had at leat 8 of their top 10 prospects reach MLB

 

status.http://www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/byTeam.asp?T=5

 

The only players not to make MLB were:

2003: Billy Simon (7) and Josh Thigpen (10)

2004: Chad Spann (6), Juan Cedeno (9)

2005: Luis Soto (7)

2006: none

2007: Bryce Cox (7), Jason Place (10)

2008: Oscar Tejada 99)

2009: Westmoreland (7), M Almanzar (8)

2010: Westmoreland (1), D Gibson (10)

2011: none

2012: Brandon Jacobs (6) was traded for Matt Thornton

2013: none

2014: T Ball (10)

2015: R Devers (6)- will probably make MLB.

 

The Tigers have had this...

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/byTeam.asp?T=11

 

 

 

 

 

[harmony]

This offseason a San Diego Union-Tribune writer has critiqued the Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz trades:

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-kimbrel-trade-review-20161017-story.html

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-trade-review-drew-pomeranz-20161124-story.html

[moonslav59]

This offseason a San Diego Union-Tribune writer has critiqued the Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz trades:

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-kimbrel-trade-review-20161017-story.html

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-trade-review-drew-pomeranz-20161124-story.html

 

It's easy to rank these tardes as good for the Padres from their point of view.

 

I get why the Sox did them, but I think Margot and Espi are going to make the Padres look very good years from now.

[Nick]

It's easy to rank these tardes as good for the Padres from their point of view.

 

I get why the Sox did them, but I think Margot and Espi are going to make the Padres look very good years from now.

 

Would Margot rank ahead of Beni? I seriously doubt it. He was a surplus. You even talk about eventually moving Moncada to the outfield. If your argument is that we could have gotten more for him in a package deal then I can't refute it. I don't know what was out there and what was asked by the Padres.

 

I'm happy with our outfield situation. I rather have Beni, Bradley and Betts than any combination you have with Margot. Triple B's provide run prevention. If I'm a gap hitter, may gap got smaller going up against Sox defense.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm not sure that I will ever be okay with the prices that GMs are paying for relievers. I honestly think that one can build a light's out BP at a fraction of the cost. Relievers are not worth that kind of money. My disdain for costly relievers has more to do with the 4-5 years they are getting rather than the dollar amount.

 

I agree with you on the length of the contract. Sox must be willing to take some chance with young, live arms in the system though. Was it St Louis that was inserting young arms into the pen before converting them back into starting rotation? I'd like to see Kopech in August/Sept stretch as a reliever. Maybe I'm overvaluing his progress but why not give him a chance. That would also limit the pitch count somewhat. I'm all about giving younger players an opportunity to stick in the majors. Find out early if they have the mental fortitude to play in AL East. Johnson and Owens have been a bust so far. I thought they were in the mix for 2015 season. Different reasons but same results for both.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Would Margot rank ahead of Beni? I seriously doubt it. He was a surplus. You even talk about eventually moving Moncada to the outfield. If your argument is that we could have gotten more for him in a package deal then I can't refute it. I don't know what was out there and what was asked by the Padres.

 

I'm happy with our outfield situation. I rather have Beni, Bradley and Betts than any combination you have with Margot. Triple B's provide run prevention. If I'm a gap hitter, may gap got smaller going up against Sox defense.

 

I'm happy about our OF too, although our OF depth is a little thin with Young under contract for 1 more year and Holt being more of a daily fill-in type guy. Basabe is the only OF prospect with significant value.

 

The larger package thing will always be speculative, unless we hear about some specific offer on the table before he was traded.

 

The reasons I mention Moncada being moved to LF are that I'm not sure he'll ever be decent enough at 3B to be "ML ready", and there's been so much talk of every team wanting JBJ, that one has to think he may be traded someday- like it or not (I don't).

 

[moonslav59]

I agree with you on the length of the contract. Sox must be willing to take some chance with young, live arms in the system though. Was it St Louis that was inserting young arms into the pen before converting them back into starting rotation? I'd like to see Kopech in August/Sept stretch as a reliever. Maybe I'm overvaluing his progress but why not give him a chance. That would also limit the pitch count somewhat. I'm all about giving younger players an opportunity to stick in the majors. Find out early if they have the mental fortitude to play in AL East. Johnson and Owens have been a bust so far. I thought they were in the mix for 2015 season. Different reasons but same results for both.

 

Being a RP'er is a different mentality. I'm not sure about trying to have Kopech try relief pitching at this point. What will we really know, if he fails?

 

Also, sometimes RP'ers overthrow due to the fact that they know they are only in for an inning or two.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure that I will ever be okay with the prices that GMs are paying for relievers. I honestly think that one can build a light's out BP at a fraction of the cost. Relievers are not worth that kind of money. My disdain for costly relievers has more to do with the 4-5 years they are getting rather than the dollar amount.

 

Taking options off the table when trying to build the best team possible does you no favors. Yes, you can build an average bullpen super cheap, depending on luck, but why the hell would you need to when you have one of the largest payrolls in the league?

 

There are many ways to gain individual talent and the cheapest ones have a certain charm of efficienty to them, but when it comes to assembling the best roster possible, the only real way to do that is to take no options off the table. The last thing you need to be doing when in the same division as the Yankees is tying your own hands behind your back because doing something that expensively improves the team "doesn't feel right."

[moonslav59]

...but why the hell would you need to when you have one of the largest payrolls in the league?

 

It's precisely the fact that we have one of the largest payrolls in the league that we look for ways to save as Henry is surely instructing his management team to do.

 

People can cry all day about Henry's immense wealth and his ability to go way over the luxury tax (at %50 this year), but until we see it happen or he says he's willing to go way over, most of us are operating on the assumption that we will continue staying very close to the luxury limit like we have for many years.

 

If the limit goes up to $200M, we'll have about $15M to spend without paying $1 on every $2 we spend. That's not even including what we are paying Castillo and Craig to not be on the 40 man roster and subject to massive taxations.

 

[Nick]

...but why the hell would you need to when you have one of the largest payrolls in the league?

 

It's precisely the fact that we have one of the largest payrolls in the league that we look for ways to save as Henry is surely instructing his management team to do.

 

People can cry all day about Henry's immense wealth and his ability to go way over the luxury tax (at %50 this year), but until we see it happen or he says he's willing to go way over, most of us are operating on the assumption that we will continue staying very close to the luxury limit like we have for many years.

 

If the limit goes up to $200M, we'll have about $15M to spend without paying $1 on every $2 we spend. That's not even including what we are paying Castillo and Craig to not be on the 40 man roster and subject to massive taxations.

 

 

We are pretty much stuck in 'frugal' mode for foreseeable future. Young and Buchholtz come off the payroll after 2017, savings of about $20M. Abad also becomes a FA but I can't imagine big numbers for him. I'm assuming we'll pick up Kimbrel's club option for 2018. We will save $40M after 2019 when Sandoval and Ramirez comes off the books. (Hanley has # of games played in 2017/2018 vesting for 2019, Pablo can be bought out for $5M after 2019).

 

Xander and Porcello become FA after 2019 and Betts and Bradley after 2020.

 

Again, best thing maybe for Price to opt out after 2018, providing $30M in relief. Perhaps by then we can have a rotation of Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, E Rod and Kopech. (assuming we extend or sign Pomeranz as a FA)

 

Another possiblity is to look to trade Bradley Jr after 2017 (still with 3 years of player control), thereby ridding of his rising salary.

We need our farm system to produce some arms for the bullpen. Swihart, Shaw, Moncada, Devers and Travis hopefully will come through.

 

Devers at 3B, say Moncada in LF, Travis at 1B, extend Hanley at DH.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

We are pretty much stuck in 'frugal' mode for foreseeable future. Young and Buchholtz come off the payroll after 2017, savings of about $20M. Abad also becomes a FA but I can't imagine big numbers for him. I'm assuming we'll pick up Kimbrel's club option for 2018. We will save $40M after 2019 when Sandoval and Ramirez comes off the books. (Hanley has # of games played in 2017/2018 vesting for 2019, Pablo can be bought out for $5M after 2019).

 

Xander and Porcello become FA after 2019 and Betts and Bradley after 2020.

 

Again, best thing maybe for Price to opt out after 2018, providing $30M in relief. Perhaps by then we can have a rotation of Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, E Rod and Kopech. (assuming we extend or sign Pomeranz as a FA)

 

Another possiblity is to look to trade Bradley Jr after 2017 (still with 3 years of player control), thereby ridding of his rising salary.

We need our farm system to produce some arms for the bullpen. Swihart, Shaw, Moncada, Devers and Travis hopefully will come through.

 

Devers at 3B, say Moncada in LF, Travis at 1B, extend Hanley at DH.

 

I think we're set up pretty well. Our biggest need areas, like 3B and pitching, have the most high prospects within the system.

 

I have high hopes for Basabe- not mentioned above, but you made a nice summary of our future outlook.

[Kimmi]

Taking options off the table when trying to build the best team possible does you no favors. Yes, you can build an average bullpen super cheap, depending on luck, but why the hell would you need to when you have one of the largest payrolls in the league?

 

There are many ways to gain individual talent and the cheapest ones have a certain charm of efficienty to them, but when it comes to assembling the best roster possible, the only real way to do that is to take no options off the table. The last thing you need to be doing when in the same division as the Yankees is tying your own hands behind your back because doing something that expensively improves the team "doesn't feel right."

 

You can build more than an average bullpen inexpensively. You can build a lights out BP without spending $100 mil on the likes of Chapman.

 

Regardless of how big our payroll is relative to most other teams, our payroll is not unlimited. If you spend big bucks on a reliever, that is money that you don't have to spend in other areas.

 

You get more bang for your buck spending that money in other areas.

[Wade Boggs]

Being a RP'er is a different mentality. I'm not sure about trying to have Kopech try relief pitching at this point. What will we really know, if he fails?

 

Also, sometimes RP'ers overthrow due to the fact that they know they are only in for an inning or two.

 

Craig Hansen? Clay Meredith ? Bard and so on. I would take my time with Kopech.

[moonslav59]

I think there's a chance we see Kopech later this year, but as a starter only.

 

I'd guess 2018 is more likely, but you never know what might happen.

[southpaw777]

I wouldnt count on Kopech in 2017. Unless of course he takes a huge step forward and can control and command his pitches, which he really cant yet. Hes got front line potential...right now MLB hitters will light him up. Lets see how he handles advanced hitting at the AA level first.

Best bet is to take their time with him, and Groome. Their development will dictate their rise to the MLB. If Kopech makes enough noise this year they will have to listen. I Just wouldnt expect it this year...

Edited November 29, 2016 by southpaw777