2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[raider_35_24]

ESPN columnist Scott Lauber speculates that the Red Sox could pursue Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce as a lefthand-hitting designated hitter now that Carlos Beltran has signed elsewhere:

 

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0597083688584352404-4

 

The problem would be getting either salary under the luxury tax threshold. Granderson is owed $15 million and Bruce $13 million next season in the final years of their contracts.

 

i'd take jay bruce anytime!

[raider_35_24]

The Red Sox have reached out to agent Scott Boras regarding free agent Matt Holliday, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The soon-to-be 37-year-old has played the outfield almost exclusively in his career as a member of the Rockies, Athletics and Cardinals, but it’s likely he’d serve as a designated hitter for the David Ortiz-less Red Sox. Holliday would be a reasonably priced option for a Boston team that’s reluctant to spend past the $195MM luxury-tax threshold, though his numbers fell off last year in St. Louis. The career .303/.382/.515 hitter dealt with injuries and batted a so-so .246/.322/.461 in 426 plate appearances. He did swat at least 20 home runs for the 10th time, however.

[Nick]

The Red Sox have reached out to agent Scott Boras regarding free agent Matt Holliday, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The soon-to-be 37-year-old has played the outfield almost exclusively in his career as a member of the Rockies, Athletics and Cardinals, but it’s likely he’d serve as a designated hitter for the David Ortiz-less Red Sox. Holliday would be a reasonably priced option for a Boston team that’s reluctant to spend past the $195MM luxury-tax threshold, though his numbers fell off last year in St. Louis. The career .303/.382/.515 hitter dealt with injuries and batted a so-so .246/.322/.461 in 426 plate appearances. He did swat at least 20 home runs for the 10th time, however.

 

Maybe we ought to think twice about former St Louis players.

[Nick]

Which would be incredibly stupid. JBJ was a 5 WAR player this year.

 

This...

 

Why in the hell would we give this up for someone who appears to have peaked?

[raider_35_24]

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-pedro-alvarez-emerging-red-sox-radar/

[moonslav59]

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

BINGO

[raider_35_24]

chris young and pedro alvarez platoon at DH sounds not to bad....

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have reached out to agent Scott Boras regarding free agent Matt Holliday, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The soon-to-be 37-year-old has played the outfield almost exclusively in his career as a member of the Rockies, Athletics and Cardinals, but it’s likely he’d serve as a designated hitter for the David Ortiz-less Red Sox. Holliday would be a reasonably priced option for a Boston team that’s reluctant to spend past the $195MM luxury-tax threshold, though his numbers fell off last year in St. Louis. The career .303/.382/.515 hitter dealt with injuries and batted a so-so .246/.322/.461 in 426 plate appearances. He did swat at least 20 home runs for the 10th time, however.

 

If we sign a right hander like Holliday, I'll be might be done with DD. Seriously. I've disagreed with his major moves so far, but I've not been saying he should be canned. He's chosen to win now, but Holliday would be a huge mistake for a team with a limited winter spending budget.

[moonslav59]

The reason the Red Sox are in bad shape cap-wise is bad deals like Pablo Sandoval...

 

Doesn't $31M for a flawed ace and $13m for a flawed closer have a little bit to do with also?

 

Those two are 20% of our player payroll budget.

 

[Jack Flap]

Which would be incredibly stupid. JBJ was a 5 WAR player this year.

 

Yup...these Sale proposals are nuts. The rotation just isn't a big enough need for me to justify the insane cost.

[Hugh2]

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

BINGO

 

He will be a bit of a question mark in his first season back from injury but Carson Smith has the talent and track record to be really really good out of the bullpen. I also am interested to see what someone like Matt Barnes can do in the bullpen, or what role Joe Kelly will have. Still, it would be nice to see them pick up an arm to replace one of those two.

[moonslav59]

He will be a bit of a question mark in his first season back from injury but Carson Smith has the talent and track record to be really really good out of the bullpen. I also am interested to see what someone like Matt Barnes can do in the bullpen, or what role Joe Kelly will have. Still, it would be nice to see them pick up an arm to replace one of those two.

 

Carson Smith may not be back until July or August.

 

Ross has been consistent.

 

Kelly and Barnes are promising but huge question marks.

 

I'm not saying this to you, but anyone who thinks we can lose Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa without replacing them with 1 very goos set-up man or two good pen arms is asking for trouble. The league is moving towards stronger and stronger pens. We're going backwards by possibly not acting on our pen in a serious manner.

 

[cp176]

If we sign a right hander like Holliday, I'll be might be done with DD. Seriously. I've disagreed with his major moves so far, but I've not been saying he should be canned. He's chosen to win now, but Holliday would be a huge mistake for a team with a limited winter spending budget.

 

Did you just make this statement seriously. We have someone who actually looks like they might know what in the hell they are doing and you say something like this.

[moonslav59]

Did you just make this statement seriously. We have someone who actually looks like they might know what in the hell they are doing and you say something like this.

 

Signing MH would be unforgivable, unless it's for $3M a year.

 

It's no secret I haven't been happy with DD's major moves, but I understood the reasoning behind them. Signing MH makes zero sense, especially if we are indeed trying to stay under the limit.

[Emp9]

depends on how much he's asking for and what we'd sign him for. obviously. A cheap one year make-good contract. This would be an after thought though. I don't get the sense teams will be knocking down the door to sign him anytime soon.

[moonslav59]

depends on how much he's asking for and what we'd sign him for. obviously. A cheap one year make-good contract. This would be an after thought though. I don't get the sense teams will be knocking down the door to sign him anytime soon.

 

We need a LH'd hitter to pair with Young. Signing MH means Young or Beni sits vs LHPs. That's insane.

[Emp9]

Power hitting-wise, yeah you're right. I guess I'm just looking for good hitters that hit both Lhp & Rhp equally well.

[Emp9]

I said Rangers on an earlier post, but I should've said the Nationals (along with the Sox) are still in on Sale. High asking price creates a lot of attrition and the Sox do have pieces to make a deal yet. Whether we like that deal is another story.

[harmony]

I was a big fan of new Yankee Matt Holliday in his prime but ...

 

Compare the 2016 lines of Holliday and another righthand-hitting free agent, Chris Carter:

 

MH 426 PA, .246/.322/.461/.783, OPS+ 107, wRC+ 109, fWAR 0.7

CC 644 PA, .222/.321/.499/.821, OPS+ 114, wRC+ 112, fWAR 0.9

 

Holliday turns 37 years old in January and Carter turns 30 this month.

[Emp9]

Ha! The Yankees beat down the door as soon as I open my mouth. LOL

[a700hitter]

Maybe DD is looking to replace Big Papi's big bat with Miggy.

[raider_35_24]

Maybe DD is looking to replace Big Papi's big bat with Miggy.

 

damn, i wish.

[harmony]

Maybe DD is looking to replace Big Papi's big bat with Miggy.

In light of luxury tax implications, I question whether the Red Sox would want the $220 million remaining on Miguel Cabrera's contract at $28 million to $32 million a year.

[moonslav59]

Maybe DD is looking to replace Big Papi's big bat with Miggy.

 

How about Pablo to balance off some of Miggy's massive overpay , Swihart, Travis, Basabe and Owens?

 

LOL

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Braves refuse to include Swanson for Sale; the Nationals refuse to include Turner for Sale; likewise, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the Red Sox to refuse to include Moncada for Sale.

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dansby-swanson-not-sale-even-sale/

 

I think teams are looking at the Cubs and how the Cubs focused on trading for and developing position players, knowing that such players come with less health risks than pitchers. As a result, young stud position players are highly valued in today's market, whereas pitchers (especially those with declining velocity like Sale) come with greater risks.

[harmony]

The Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping starters Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, according to ESPN's Buster Olney:

 

 

The 33-year-old McCarthy is owed $20 million over the next two seasons while Kazmir, who turns 33 in January, is owed $32 million over the next two seasons.

 

Steamer projects the righthanded McCarthy and the lefthanded Kazmir each with 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 16 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4662&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4897&position=P

 

Steamer projects 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz, who has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract, with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

 

It should be an interesting trade market for blemished starters.

Edited December 5, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping starters Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, according to ESPN's Buster Olney:

 

 

The 33-year-old McCarthy is owed $20 million over the next two seasons while Kazmir, who turns 33 in January, is owed $32 million over the next two seasons.

 

Steamer projects the righthanded McCarthy and the lefthanded Kazmir each with 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 16 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4662&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4897&position=P

 

Steamer projects 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz, who has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract, with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

 

It should be an interesting trade market for blemished starters.

 

These two guys have many similarities with Buch, although I still think Buch at his very best has three times had better stretches than these two and should be a better risk-reward gamble for some GM.

 

Let's see what the Dodgers get for these guys, and we'll have some sort of idea what we might be able to get for Buch, if we are looking to trade him and fill some slots with the savings.

[moonslav59]

The Braves refuse to include Swanson for Sale; the Nationals refuse to include Turner for Sale; likewise, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the Red Sox to refuse to include Moncada for Sale.

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dansby-swanson-not-sale-even-sale/

 

I think teams are looking at the Cubs and how the Cubs focused on trading for and developing position players, knowing that such players come with less health risks than pitchers. As a result, young stud position players are highly valued in today's market, whereas pitchers (especially those with declining velocity like Sale) come with greater risks.

 

I get the concern on Sale, but he still had great numbers even with reduced velocity. He's shown he can be a pitcher not a thrower.

 

One has to think that once Sale is traded, Quintana might be on the block. I mean why stop there, if you are in rebuild mode.

 

What has not been discussed is who else is part of these packages. If it's just Moncada for Sale, then I'd be leaning towards doing it, but they might want JBJ too. I might give Swihart, Moncada, Owens, Hembree and Pablo (and cash) for Sale and Frazier. The money paid on Pablo would be just enough to keep us under the luxury limit, if we traded Buch for a low cost RP'er or two. I think Sale + Frazier = $13.5M, so that balances out Buch's contract. We could pay $10M of Pablo's $19M a year and still be under the limit. That might not be enough to a team looking to rebuild and talking on Pablo's problems, but it's probably close.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait...

 

Swanson had a .800+ OPS in 120+ ABs in the bigs.

Turner hit .342 with a .937OPS in 300+ ABs in the bigs.

Moncada went 4 for 19 with 12K's in the bigs.

 

One of these things is not like the other....

 

Moncada is not a sure fire hit as he can be easily dispatched by big league pitching most notably a curveball. Swanson and Turner have had solid debuts and have already made the adjustment to hit big league pitching. Including Moncada is NOT the same as including Swanson or Turner, not even close

[moonslav59]

Wait...

 

Swanson had a .800+ OPS in 120+ ABs in the bigs.

Turner hit .342 with a .937OPS in 300+ ABs in the bigs.

Moncada went 4 for 19 with 12K's in the bigs.

 

One of these things is not like the other....

 

Moncada is not a sure fire hit as he can be easily dispatched by big league pitching most notably a curveball. Swanson and Turner have had solid debuts and have already made the adjustment to hit big league pitching. Including Moncada is NOT the same as including Swanson or Turner, not even close

 

Well, many ranking services still have Moncada ranked higher, so maybe his upside is higher.

 

What concerns me more is his fielding and lack of "owning" a clear position.

 

All those sample sizes listed above are pretty small, especially Moncada's.