2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[moonslav59]

Woah, Tyson Ross nontendered. If there's a chance he gets healthy, he's definitely worth risking a flier on.

 

Even if he's not healthy, a two or three year deal might be a good risk-reward gamble.

[oldtimer]

The loss of Ortiz is the loss of 5 wins, all on the offensive side of the ball. That's not really so easy to make up. We may have improvements from some players, we may have regressions as well (Porcello, for example.) Dombrowski has his work cut out, honestly.

 

Not only do we lose Ortiz, but it is unlikely that Leon will put up a stretch as he did last year. We do need to improve offensively at our weakest position and not lose to much at DH. My hope is Beltran and an improvement at 3rd with perhaps JBJ showing some meaningful hitting adjustments.

[moonslav59]

Eduardo Escobar gets $2.6M... Wow!

[harmony]

Even if he's not healthy, a two or three year deal might be a good risk-reward gamble.

That's where the luxury tax is likely to come into play. A team that is not bumping up on the threshold could outbid the Red Sox.

 

Now that Tyson Ross is a free agent an acquiring club won't need to rely on the Padres for his medicals.

[moonslav59]

Not only do we lose Ortiz, but it is unlikely that Leon will put up a stretch as he did last year. We do need to improve offensively at our weakest position and not lose to much at DH. My hope is Beltran and an improvement at 3rd with perhaps JBJ showing some meaningful hitting adjustments.

 

OK, lop off .150 points from Leon's OPs last year's .845, we'd still have a better catcher OPS than 2016.

 

.845 Leon 283 PAs

.585 Vaz 184 PAs.

.500 Holaday 35 PAs

.468 Hanigan 113 PAs

 

 

Combined catcher OPS: .665 in 620 PAs

 

If Leon gives us .695 in 400 PAs and Vaz gives us .605 in 200 PAs, we'll be even.

 

I'm hopeful we can get .720 from Leon and .650 from Vaz.

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by moonslav59

[cp176]

I'd actually be surprised if the Sox did anything at all about third base.

 

We have Sandoval, Shaw, Holt and possibly Moncada in the mix. All have flaws, but all have had good stretches there as well (except Moncada so far).

 

The need for a 3B might be more in the eyes of the fans than the front office...

 

I think you are right. It is entirely possible that third base becomes a position of strength for us before the 2017 season is over.

[S5Dewey]

I think you are right. It is entirely possible that third base becomes a position of strength for us before the 2017 season is over.

 

What a conundrum this 3B thing is. It's not outside the realm of reality that any or all of three might succeed - or fail - at 3B.

[notin]

What a conundrum this 3B thing is. It's not outside the realm of reality that any or all of three might succeed - or fail - at 3B.

 

No different than last year. Except now maybe Moncada is in the mix...

[S5Dewey]

No different than last year. Except now maybe Moncada is in the mix...

 

Last year the team went into ST with 3B being Sandoval's position to lose. He had played 126 games there in 2015 and we had no idea about any shoulder injury. This year it's wide open, only with Moncada included.

[notin]

Last year the team went into ST with 3B being Sandoval's position to lose. He had played 126 games there in 2015 and we had no idea about any shoulder injury. This year it's wide open, only with Moncada included.

 

Sandoval went into ST as the favorite, but came out of ST deposed and hidden away on the DL all year. And I think the whole thing was someone giving him a season long "timeout".

 

But the names Sandoval, Shaw and Holt were all options last year. This year they will fight or the honor of holding down the fort until Moncada's Super Two date passes...

[S5Dewey]

Sandoval went into ST as the favorite, but came out of ST deposed and hidden away on the DL all year. And I think the whole thing was someone giving him a season long "timeout".

 

But the names Sandoval, Shaw and Holt were all options last year. This year they will fight or the honor of holding down the fort until Moncada's Super Two date passes...

 

That's what I was saying... that last year at this time we had our 3Bman. It was Sandoval's position to lose and he did it by coming into camp morbidly obese. Of course there were other options. There are always other options for every player at every position.

 

This year it's wide open, and a mess. The good news is that at least it's a mess now and not in April as it was in 2016.

[Dojji]

What a conundrum this 3B thing is. It's not outside the realm of reality that any or all of three might succeed - or fail - at 3B.

 

This is the big reason I don't see an offeseason move at 3B. If we make a move to shore up third base it will be during the season. At the moment we're techincally at least 4 deep at third between Shaw and Sandoval in some order, then Holt, then Moncada. We really need to evaluate what all of these options (or at least the three that are not Brock Holt) can give us this year before we pull the trigger on anything.

[cp176]

3 out of those 4 candidates we have seen at least enough to have some idea, some basic data that shows how they might play. In a good case scenario, Sandoval comes back in great shape(not very likely) and Shaw looks to be a little more like he did in the early season last year as opposed to how he looked in the second half. Holt, in my mind anyway continues to be an outstanding backup role player for us. It really isn't a gloom and doom weak situation. Now, the last guy, Moncada, no one knows. I've seen him - some of you have to - last year I said that I cannot remember a player in a Red Sox uniform that really resembles him. I am a NY giants football fan and if this kid doesn't work out for us I think the Giants could find a place for him. He didn't look good in the fall - big deal. Unless everybody that has ever scouted him and seen him play is wrong (which they might be I guess) he has the "potential" to be an elite all around MVP quality player for whoever he plays for. I hope we hang on to him! He has the ability to certainly play a decent third base. He has a gun for an arm and he certainly isn't slow. I'm not comparing him to anyone here either. He isn't Benitendi - 2 very different types of skill sets - nor is he Castillo. He may make it and if he does I hope that he does so for us.

[Kimmi]

It is just my opinion, but pulling a big bat like Ortiz out of a lineup that he anchored for so long will have a big negative impact on run production unless they replace the bat.

 

Of course pulling a bat like Papi's out of the lineup is going to have a negative impact. He is hopefully not going to be replaced by nothing, though. The point being that our offense will likely not be as strong as it was in 2016, but it was so good in 2016 that even with the loss of Papi's bat, it should still be one of the top offenses in the league.

 

They could still even be the best offense in the league without making any offensive changes.

[Kimmi]

The loss of Ortiz is the loss of 5 wins, all on the offensive side of the ball. That's not really so easy to make up. We may have improvements from some players, we may have regressions as well (Porcello, for example.) Dombrowski has his work cut out, honestly.

 

The Sox were a 98 win team according to Pythagoras. Assuming everything else remained the same, for argument's sake, the loss of Papi would make us approximately a 93 win team.

 

I'm expecting some upgrades to the pen. I'm also expecting that Dombrowski will do something on the offensive front, though I don't think it will be a big move. Some players will improve, others will regress. Our offseason needs are not nearly as dire as some people are making them out to be.

 

IMO, we could start the season with the team we currently have and we would be a legitimate contender. I am not suggesting that we stand pat, but I think we would be good to go if we did.

[Kimmi]

Woah, Tyson Ross nontendered. If there's a chance he gets healthy, he's definitely worth risking a flier on.

 

Absolutely.

 

Unfortunately, I think many other teams are thinking the same thing.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox were a 98 win team according to Pythagoras. Assuming everything else remained the same, for argument's sake, the loss of Papi would make us approximately a 93 win team.

 

I'm expecting some upgrades to the pen. I'm also expecting that Dombrowski will do something on the offensive front, though I don't think it will be a big move. Some players will improve, others will regress. Our offseason needs are not nearly as dire as some people are making them out to be.

 

IMO, we could start the season with the team we currently have and we would be a legitimate contender. I am not suggesting that we stand pat, but I think we would be good to go if we did.

 

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the reality is that we are hamstrung financially this offseason. We're more in a position of trying not to drop off too much from last year than we are able to get better.

[mvp 78]

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the reality is that we are hamstrung financially this offseason. We're more in a position of trying not to drop off too much from last year than we are able to get better.

Thanks Ben!

[Kimmi]

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the reality is that we are hamstrung financially this offseason. We're more in a position of trying not to drop off too much from last year than we are able to get better.

 

We really don't know if the FO is intending to get under the luxury tax cap this season or not. They might wait until next season to do so.

 

My guess is that they will make some tweaks to the roster during the offseason and wait until midseason to re-evaluate. If Pablo is not cutting it, he might be traded or even DFA'd for some salary relief. Or Buchholz might be.

 

I would re-sign Koji, but not at anywhere near the $9 million he made last year.

[Bellhorn04]

This offseason will be a good test for Dombrowski's game.

[vjcsmoke]

The reason the Red Sox are in bad shape cap-wise is bad deals like Pablo Sandoval and not moving on from useless guys like Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo. Just those 3 guys alone = 38.5m dollars in salary.

 

Hanley Ramirez is more than ok for DH duties.

 

Let's cut the fat and get rid of Pablo, Craig, and Castillo. We might have to eat some salary but it's probably worth it to get under the tax threshold.

 

I believe repeat offenders pay an even heavier tax. But the new CBA will make that crystal clear.

Edited December 3, 2016 by vjcsmoke

[harmony]

The reason the Red Sox are in bad shape cap-wise is bad deals like Pablo Sandoval and not moving on from useless guys like Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo. Just those 3 guys alone = 38.5m dollars in salary.

 

Hanley Ramirez is more than ok for DH duties.

 

Let's cut the fat and get rid of Pablo, Craig, and Castillo. We might have to eat some salary but it's probably worth it to get under the tax threshold.

 

I believe repeat offenders pay an even heavier tax. But the new CBA will make that crystal clear.

The salaries of Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo do not count against the luxury tax because neither is on the Red Sox 40-man roster.

 

The Red Sox would be fortunate to find a trade partner willing to pay $4 million of Pablo Sandoval's $19 million annual AAV salary. The savings for luxury tax purposes would be limited to the trade partner's contribution.

Edited December 3, 2016 by harmony

[harmony]

Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that.

 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but the reality is that we are hamstrung financially this offseason. We're more in a position of trying not to drop off too much from last year than we are able to get better.

Bullpen arms won't come cheap this offseason if the contracts for Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski are any indication.

[Bellhorn04]

Bullpen arms won't come cheap this offseason if the contracts for Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski are any indication.

 

You're right. Realistically we can only afford to sign one guy like Ziegler.

[raider_35_24]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago

Sources: #Nationals remain in talks with #WhiteSox on Sale and #Pirates on McCutchen. #RedSox open on Sale, but only at lesser asking price.

[notin]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago

Sources: #Nationals remain in talks with #WhiteSox on Sale and #Pirates on McCutchen. #RedSox open on Sale, but only at lesser asking price.

 

As talented as I think Sale is, I wouldn't go all in on him either. This past season raised questions with me about whether or not he is a whiny prima donna. If the asking price was Swihart and another lesser, sure. But we all know its isn't. ...

[Palodios]

As talented as I think Sale is, I wouldn't go all in on him either. This past season raised questions with me about whether or not he is a whiny prima donna. If the asking price was Swihart and another lesser, sure. But we all know its isn't. ...

An ace is an ace. Moncada is the starting point, plus Pomeranz and maybe others. My concern is when Chicago starts asking for three our four significant pieces like Bradley Beni and Erod on top of that.

[raider_35_24]

An ace is an ace. Moncada is the starting point, plus Pomeranz and maybe others. My concern is when Chicago starts asking for three our four significant pieces like Bradley Beni and Erod on top of that.

 

it's going to start with...

 

moncada

bradley

e.rodriguez

and you go from there...

[Bellhorn04]

it's going to start with...

 

moncada

bradley

e.rodriguez

and you go from there...

 

Which would be incredibly stupid. JBJ was a 5 WAR player this year.

[harmony]

ESPN columnist Scott Lauber speculates that the Red Sox could pursue Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce as a lefthand-hitting designated hitter now that Carlos Beltran has signed elsewhere:

 

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0597083688584352404-4

 

The problem would be getting either salary under the luxury tax threshold. Granderson is owed $15 million and Bruce $13 million next season in the final years of their contracts.