2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[mvp 78]

Let me add this to the mix -- when was the last time a big acquisition of an ace for the Red Sox actually work as advertised?

 

To me, there hasn't been one since the Schilling trade. And as much good as he did for us, Schilling was brought in to pitch behind Pedro and be our #2 starter and big playoff horse behind our ace so he may not even count

 

If he doesn't, that's the Pedro trade itself nearly 20 years ago. And as great as that trade was for ut, there are circumstances behind the Pedro trade that may never happen again in our lifetimes, up to and including the collusion by the league to force the Expos to sell off assets they should never have been forced, or even allowed, to get rid of for the good of the league, all in the name of justifying the move to Washington. If they'd had a choice other than to trade Pedro, would the Expos have dealt him? You be the judge, but I'm saying hell no.

 

So since no big trade, and if I'm honest, no big acquisition of a bigtime supposed-to-be-an-ace has actually worked for this team in 18 years, why the hell are you people so eager to reach your hand right back onto the hot stove AGAIN? This town has proven over and over again that it needs to homegrow its aces. The big move for a TOTR starter works so rarely it's actually baffling to me that people haven't completely walked away from the idea by now.

 

Porcello worked out this year. Beckett was our ace for a few years.

 

The only guy I can think of that was brought in to be an ace that didn't work out was Price and he still has a chance to redeem himself. The only other big acquisition was Lackey and he really was only expected to be a #3.

[moonslav59]

Beckett was. Daisuke was supposed to be.

 

Yes, Beckett was an ace when we acquired him and pitched like one for 4-5 out of the 6 1/2 seasons here.

 

Dice K was a number two at best- projected.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, I think DiceK was a lottery ticket. I don't think anyone thought he'd be the #1 guy.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, I think DiceK was a lottery ticket. I don't think anyone thought he'd be the #1 guy.

He was expected to be a #3 guy, not a #1.

[Dojji]

You guys have let time erase the hype that was surrounding that signing at the time. I still remember the live NESN coverage with the camera pointing at the plane he would be taking back to Japan if he didn't sign. The hype was super intense, as intense as I've ever seen it for any acquisition.

[mvp 78]

You guys have let time erase the hype that was surrounding that signing at the time. I still remember the live NESN coverage with the camera pointing at the plane he would be taking back to Japan if he didn't sign. The hype was super intense, as intense as I've ever seen it for any acquisition.

 

Hype and gyroball nonsense doesn't mean that anyone reasonably thought he was a #1. I think most people saw him as a wild card that could be a #2. Nobody thought he was Pedro reincarnated.

[moonslav59]

You guys have let time erase the hype that was surrounding that signing at the time. I still remember the live NESN coverage with the camera pointing at the plane he would be taking back to Japan if he didn't sign. The hype was super intense, as intense as I've ever seen it for any acquisition.

 

Even if you didn't count him as an ace, because we had Beckett & Schilling, I don't think many fans or experts thought he'd be a top 30 SP'er in MLB. There was some hope he might become one, but I don't think the majority thought he'd be an ace.

 

He did kind of pitch like one in 2008, but that awful 5.0 BB/9 caused his WHIP to be over 1.300- no ace in my book.

 

(BTW, his 6.9 H/9 led the league in 2008.)

[a700hitter]

Hype and gyroball nonsense doesn't mean that anyone reasonably thought he was a #1. I think most people saw him as a wild card that could be a #2. Nobody thought he was Pedro reincarnated.

Even the most optimistic projections of Dice K did not have him as a #1. That hype was just that... hype. I heard an interview Bobby Valentine of was familiar with him from managing in Japan. The interview was before the Red Sox won the bid. His evaluation was dead on. He projected him as a number 3 to the back end of a rotation. He said that while he might be able to hit 95 on the gun, that he couldn't live there and that he would have to pitch off of his secondary pitches. And he was right as Dice K was a big nibbler. He never came right at hitters.

[kenmeister]

Put me down for predicting that the only major move the Sox make is signing one of Jose Bautista or Carlos Beltran - DH/outfielder types.

[moonslav59]

Put me down for predicting that the only major move the Sox make is signing one of Jose Bautista or Carlos Beltran - DH/outfielder types.

 

If we don't get a really good RP'er or two, getting Beltran might not help much.

[bosoxmal]

Well, they didn't listen to me before, I guess they won't this time, either!

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31336/mlb-rumor-central-market-emerging-for-rich-hill

 

For pete's sake, hang on to Swihart! Two years from now, they;ll be trying to get him back!

[Kimmi]

Well, they didn't listen to me before, I guess they won't this time, either!

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31336/mlb-rumor-central-market-emerging-for-rich-hill

 

For pete's sake, hang on to Swihart! Two years from now, they;ll be trying to get him back!

 

I agree. I hope the Sox hang to Swihart until at least midseason, preferably longer. That will give us a better idea of what we have in all 3 of our catchers.

[bosoxmal]

I agree. I hope the Sox hang to Swihart until at least midseason, preferably longer. That will give us a better idea of what we have in all 3 of our catchers.

He was a far better left fielder than he was a catcher. But, aside from that, good hitting switch hitters are hard to find. And he is well into the early stages of development. He could also serve as the emergency 3rd catcher, thus saving a spot on the active roster.

[S5Dewey]

He was a far better left fielder than he was a catcher. But, aside from that, good hitting switch hitters are hard to find. And he is well into the early stages of development. He could also serve as the emergency 3rd catcher, thus saving a spot on the active roster.

 

Ya know, there's a lot to be said for this post. The problem as I see it is in finding a roster spot for him. It'd be a shame to have him as a 3rd DH, 3rd catcher, and 5th OFer. He's too good for that.

[moonslav59]

Ya know, there's a lot to be said for this post. The problem as I see it is in finding a roster spot for him. It'd be a shame to have him as a 3rd DH, 3rd catcher, and 5th OFer. He's too good for that.

 

He's not too good for that right now.

[Bellhorn04]

He's not too good for that right now.

 

I think the right wording would be 'He's got too much potential for that.'

[oldtimer]

Maybe Swihart straight up for Robertson? Could we afford that? Boston sports writers suggesting that.

[S5Dewey]

He's not too good for that right now.

 

I see him as having his hitting making him good enough to be a 4th OF or backup catcher for many teams. Just not ours.With the potential to move up the ladder with that team.

[moonslav59]

I think the right wording would be 'He's got too much potential for that.'

 

True, but I was responding to the statement that "it is a shame to have him as a 3rd DH, a 3rd catcher, a 5th OF'er. He's too good for that."

 

Those current placements are dead on accurate.

 

Of course, he has the talent and potential to move up in any of those three position depth charts, but right now that's where he sits.

 

We could trade Leon (or less likely- Vaz) and Swihart could play vs most RHPs and maybe get some DH work, if he is showing some offensive skills, but I think he's going to have to work his way out of AAA to obtain a significant role on this team. The way the roster is constructed now, I really don't see him passing Leon or Vaz on the catcher depth chart, unless one of them flames out, or Vaz never rises above .650. That mnakes it tough on Swihart, because Sox management has said that catcher is where he will be next year.

 

With Young as the 4th OF'er, I see Swihart as the 4th OF'er vs RHPs, which in my opinion is a better spot to be than 3rd catcher. All it takes is for one OF'er to get hurt, and Swihart could start FT. Young rates to be our DH vs LHPs and may sit vs RHPs in favor of Swihart.

 

I don't see Swihart DH'ing, unless Pablo is playing 3B or has not earned the DH platoon with Young. I guess that is probably more likely than an OF'er or catcher getting hurt, but I'm not sure Swihart playing near FT DH is going to be a winning move by Sox management, at least for 2017.

 

It's probably good he has 3 shots at a significant role on the 2017 roster.

 

If the rosters go to 26 men, he might be "that guy", but if he doesn't play much, except to PH for our catcher late in games, I don't see him developing as he needs to do.

[Bellhorn04]

I think somebody already proposed this basic scenario:

 

Opening Day catching tandem of Leon and Vazquez.

Swihart works on his catching game in Pawtucket.

If Swihart looks good, he replaces Leon or Vazquez at some point.

[moonslav59]

I think somebody already proposed this basic scenario:

 

Opening Day catching tandem of Leon and Vazquez.

Swihart works on his catching game in Pawtucket.

If Swihart looks good, he replaces Leon or Vazquez at some point.

 

Doesn't that scenario depend on Leon or Vaz struggling or Swihart judt doing so God-damned well, he squeezes Leon or Vaz out of a job?

 

I still think his highest value is as a catcher, but his highest value on the Sox may be as a left-handed hitting LF'er or DH.

 

This is one reason I include him in so many of my suggested trade offers- not because I don't value him as much as others, but because his value on another team may be higher than on ours.

 

I do think waiting a few months is the best idea, because I do believe in Swihart, and I think he will do well enough to raise his stock or make Leo or Vaz expendable or AAA depth.

[S5Dewey]

Doesn't that scenario depend on Leon or Vaz struggling or Swihart judt doing so God-damned well, he squeezes Leon or Vaz out of a job?

 

I still think his highest value is as a catcher, but his highest value on the Sox may be as a left-handed hitting LF'er or DH.

 

This is one reason I include him in so many of my suggested trade offers- not because I don't value him as much as others, but because his value on another team may be higher than on ours.

 

I do think waiting a few months is the best idea, because I do believe in Swihart, and I think he will do well enough to raise his stock or make Leo or Vaz expendable or AAA depth.

 

We do have somewhat an embarrassment of riches in our OF at the moment. We're waist-deep in quality (and semi-quality) OF'ers right now with Beni, JBJ, Mookie, Young, Holt, and Swihart. I agree that Swihart would be fine as a LH hitting LF'er, but do we want to sit three of those guys to make it happen when Swihart may be the worst defensively of any of them? And that's not a knock on Swihart. He's simply behind some pretty good OF'ers. Some are better than others but Swihart is still the worst of the bunch.

Even if someone wanted to make the case that Swihart = Holt he's still the 5th Of'er.

[moonslav59]

We do have somewhat an embarrassment of riches in our OF at the moment. We're waist-deep in quality (and semi-quality) OF'ers right now with Beni, JBJ, Mookie, Young, Holt, and Swihart. I agree that Swihart would be fine as a LH hitting LF'er, but do we want to sit three of those guys to make it happen when Swihart may be the worst defensively of any of them? And that's not a knock on Swihart. He's simply behind some pretty good OF'ers. Some are better than others but Swihart is still the worst of the bunch.

Even if someone wanted to make the case that Swihart = Holt he's still the 5th Of'er.

 

Our OF is very strong but not deep, especially below the MLB level.

 

My point was that Young is our DH vs LHPs. and maybe Swihart is better than Young vs RHPs, so in a sense Swihart or Holt are our 4th OF'er (almost certainly vs RHPs anyways). There's maybe a better chance one of 3 OF'ers gets hurt than one of two catchers, but I admit there's a much better chance one of Vaz or Leon struggles enough to lose his job than an OF'er does.

 

With no DH in sight vs RHPs, except for maybe Pablo, Swihart might have a better chance winning that role than a number 1 or 2 catcher role.

 

When you combine LF and DH, looking at our roster as is right now, I think the odds favor Swihart getting more PAs as a LF + DH than as a Catcher. That's not true for maybe a third of the other teams in MLB where he'd catch number 1 or as a number 2 for maybe half to two thirds of MLB teams..

[notin]

Doesn't that scenario depend on Leon or Vaz struggling or Swihart judt doing so God-damned well, he squeezes Leon or Vaz out of a job?

 

I still think his highest value is as a catcher, but his highest value on the Sox may be as a left-handed hitting LF'er or DH.

 

This is one reason I include him in so many of my suggested trade offers- not because I don't value him as much as others, but because his value on another team may be higher than on ours.

 

I do think waiting a few months is the best idea, because I do believe in Swihart, and I think he will do well enough to raise his stock or make Leo or Vaz expendable or AAA depth.

 

Vazquez looks like a prototypical backup catcher to me, which I don't consider an insult. He's a major league caliber player with a clear role.

 

I don't think Leon is that much better, and I think (and said repeatedly on BDC) that his offense last year was BABIP-fueled unsustainibility.

 

So at some point it is likely that replacing one of these guys not only happens but is also preferable and a worthwhile upgrade. ..

[moonslav59]

Vazquez looks like a prototypical backup catcher to me, which I don't consider an insult. He's a major league caliber player with a clear role.

 

I don't think Leon is that much better, and I think (and said repeatedly on BDC) that his offense last year was BABIP-fueled unsustainibility.

 

So at some point it is likely that replacing one of these guys not only happens but is also preferable and a worthwhile upgrade. ..

 

I'm not discounting the chances Swihart will eventually take the 1 or 2 catcher slot; I just see a greater chance of a need at LH'd hitting DH and LF and maybe a RH'd hitting LF'er, if Young DHs vs LHPs.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not discounting the chances Swihart will eventually take the 1 or 2 catcher slot; I just see a greater chance of a need at LH'd hitting DH and LF and maybe a RH'd hitting LF'er, if Young DHs vs LHPs.

 

The Red Sox aren't going to impede the development of a young prospect like Blake Swihart to make him a platoon player on the Major League roster. It's shortsighted and it never happens.

 

They've already stated that Swihart will catch everyday in Pawtucket, unless he's forced into catching duties due to injury to Leon/Vasquez. Brock Holt will be the 5th outfielder when it's necessary and I'll be shocked if they don't bring in someone to handle the DH spot fairly regularly. Swihart certainly won't be in the DH mix.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox aren't going to impede the development of a young prospect like Blake Swihart to make him a platoon player on the Major League roster. It's shortsighted and it never happens.

 

They've already stated that Swihart will catch everyday in Pawtucket, unless he's forced into catching duties due to injury to Leon/Vasquez. Brock Holt will be the 5th outfielder when it's necessary and I'll be shocked if they don't bring in someone to handle the DH spot fairly regularly. Swihart certainly won't be in the DH mix.

 

I'm not advocating for Swihart to be a platoon only player, although, if he gets called up as a catcher, he probably won't play more than 2 or 3 out of every 5 games which is less than being a RH'd hitting platoon player.

 

Let me ask you this, let's say Swihart is hitting .875 in AAA and he gets called up as a catcher in May or June. What percentage of games will he likely play as a catcher assuming the other catcher is hitting over .650?

 

More than 77%? Well, last year we faced a righty starter 77% of our games. If Swihart platooned in LF with Beni or DH presumably with Young, he'd maybe start 77% of the games. That maybe close to what he starts as a catcher at AAA.

My point is that I see the chances of him getting serious PAs more from a combination of LF and DH than as a catcher with Boston in 2017.

 

If he's hitting very well, he may become the FT DH and maybe Young platoons with Beni in LF. If an OF'er gets hurt, Swihart could play LF full time or LF vs RHPs and DH vs LHPs as Young plays LF those days.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not advocating for Swihart to be a platoon only player, although, if he gets called up as a catcher, he probably won't play more than 2 or 3 out of every 5 games which is less than being a RH'd hitting platoon player.

 

Let me ask you this, let's say Swihart is hitting .875 in AAA and he gets called up as a catcher in May or June. What percentage of games will he likely play as a catcher assuming the other catcher is hitting over .650?

 

More than 77%? Well, last year we faced a righty starter 77% of our games. If Swihart platooned in LF with Beni or DH presumably with Young, he'd maybe start 77% of the games. That maybe close to what he starts as a catcher at AAA.

My point is that I see the chances of him getting serious PAs more from a combination of LF and DH than as a catcher with Boston in 2017.

 

If he's hitting very well, he may become the FT DH and maybe Young platoons with Beni in LF. If an OF'er gets hurt, Swihart could play LF full time or LF vs RHPs and DH vs LHPs as Young plays LF those days.

 

Let's just continue to disagree on this. I don't care if Swihart's hitting a .1000 in Pawtucket during "May or June," they'd never make him a "full time DH." They aren't going to call him up in May or June to "catch 2 or 3 times a week," either. He needs to develop right now, and he WILL start somewhere.

 

There are only 4 possible scenarios for Swihart: Injured, traded, starting catcher in Boston, starting catcher in Pawtucket. That's it.

 

They also aren't going to "platoon Benintendi" with anyone, either. If he struggles early on, they'll send him to Pawtucket. You don't ever "platoon" top young prospects for a reason. As of right now, they could struggle to find enough at bats for Young & Holt as it is, and you want to throw Swihart in the outfield mix?

[moonslav59]

Let's just continue to disagree on this. I don't care if Swihart's hitting a .1000 in Pawtucket during "May or June," they'd never make him a "full time DH." They aren't going to call him up in May or June to "catch 2 or 3 times a week," either. He needs to develop right now, and he WILL start somewhere.

 

There are only 4 possible scenarios for Swihart: Injured, traded, starting catcher in Boston, starting catcher in Pawtucket. That's it.

 

They also aren't going to "platoon Benintendi" with anyone, either. If he struggles early on, they'll send him to Pawtucket. You don't ever "platoon" top young prospects for a reason. As of right now, they could struggle to find enough at bats for Young & Holt as it is, and you want to throw Swihart in the outfield mix?

 

So, if Vaz or Leon get hurt, and the Sox don't feel Swihart will be the number one catcher, we won't call him up?

[moonslav59]

They also aren't going to "platoon Benintendi" with anyone, either. If he struggles early on, they'll send him to Pawtucket. You don't ever "platoon" top young prospects for a reason. As of right now, they could struggle to find enough at bats for Young & Holt as it is, and you want to throw Swihart in the outfield mix?

 

Young really only needs to play vs LHPs. I see the DH position open for him as a platoon.

 

He's fine vs RHPs, but it's not like we have to go out of our way to find him PAs vs righties.

 

We don't need to try and find PAs for Holt either, even against righties. The guy is a .705 hitter. He's almost equal vs RHPs and LHPs over his career. You don't seek ways to get a .705 hitter in the game. You actually try to avoid it.

 

Beni was more or less platooned this year in Boston. If he's killing righties but struggling ve lefties, they won't send him down to AAA. Being the RH'd platoon with the Sox means you start over 75% of the games and can PH or PR in the others. For a guy who has never played more than 97 games in a season, a RH'd platoon would give him about 125 starts, which is sort of like playing FT in AAA's 142 game schedule.

 

I'm not advocating a Beni platoon, but it could happen. I doubt it, but it's possible.

 

It's the RH'd platoon players than languish on the bench and are usually better off playing FT in AAA.