2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Dojji]

If they believe in Moncada, they are really just looking for a placeholder at 3b until late 2017 or 2018 when Moncada could be ready.

 

That's nothing Travis Shaw can't do, even assuming he doesn't gain any consistency from one year to the next. Shaw isn't very satisfying for fans that need CIF's to show a lot of stick, but the overall package is adequate for a bridge guy.

[moonslav59]

My guess is that they do nothing with respect to third base. No need. That one gets taken care of in house.

 

I'm not sure I agree with the term "no need", but in many ways, it makes sense to wait it out at 3B, at least until we see how Moncada progresses at 3B defense, Pablo's condition is revealed and whether T Shaw's late season slump is what we can expect going forward.

 

On the same page as E/Ballgame with respect to Encarnarcion - Red sox will place their own value on him. If he wants to be in Boston, he'll come but he probably will be able to get more $ somewhere else.

 

What would you offer?

 

I might offer (tops) $36M/2 with a 3rd year option at $18M with a $4M buyout ($40M/2 or 54M/3). That will not come close to getting him here in my opinion.

 

Would Beltran take $30M/2?

 

 

Shaw/Sandoval/Moncada/Holt/Devers etc. etc. etc. - this group will match the production of any journeyman pro who might cost us something. We also might find something really good amongst this group. it really is worth waiting to see how it plays out. No panic mode needed.

 

Don't forget Hernandez and Rutledge!

 

Even Dubon could be an in-season option.

[moonslav59]

That's nothing Travis Shaw can't do, even assuming he doesn't gain any consistency from one year to the next. Shaw isn't very satisfying for fans that need CIF's to show a lot of stick, but the overall package is adequate for a bridge guy.

 

Assuming he's not just the second half Shaw for all of next year.

[Dojji]

Which isn't a particularly unreasonable assumption. He's already had periods where he's struggled, then adjusted to get back to productivity

 

. I honestly believe that part of the reason he couldn't pull out of his slump in the last month of the season is that the team couldn't afford to give him the at bats to work on it while in the middle of a pennant chase.

 

Shaw's got a good base of defense to justify his spot in the lineup while he works on his offensive approach. I hear Sandoval's looking much more svelte these days but he's still going to have to brush up his toes to win his job back.

[Nick]

Assuming he's not just the second half Shaw for all of next year.

 

I tend to live in parallel universe. There are threads that's based on my views of Sox nation. But most of my threads are based on what I think the Sox front office will do. Former doesn't count for much because I tend to guess wrong, often.

[moonslav59]

Shaw's got a good base of defense to justify his spot in the lineup while he works on his offensive approach.

 

He's average, at best on defense at 3B. I wouldn't say being average justifies much, but when you're going against Pablo and Holt....

[Dojji]

Every number I've seen said that Shaw had an above average season playing defense at third. The only possible debate between the various metrics is how far above the average he was.

 

Considering that the below replacement level defense he furnished at third last year can be written off to mere rust and small sample size, I don't think it's particularly unreasonable to approach next season with reasonably optimistic expectations of Shaw defensively as a third baseman.

 

Holt was, unfortunately, well below average as a third baseman. His thing is about being able to show up at multiple positions without being a major liability in any of them, but third base is one of his weaker ones. There is simply other, better ways to use the talent that is Brock Holt. Shaw also outhit Holt on the season for what that's worth.

 

As for Sandoval -- talk to me when he's above replacement level again, which he hasn't been since we signed him.

 

Shaw does not really have very much actual competition at third base until Sandoval begins to seriously redeem himself. Which he has not yet done.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Every number I've seen said that Shaw had an above average season playing defense at third. The only possible debate between the various metrics is how far above the average he was.

 

Well, UZR/150 is one pretty respected metric. You have to go down to 550 innings to get a sample size of 32 players at 3B. You need 30 to determine what is "average", since there are 30 teams and 30 3Bmen in MLB.

 

Shaw ranked 17th out of 32 at +1.6. That's slightly below average.

 

If you go to 572 innings, the sample size is 30. Shaw ranks 16th out of 30- slightly below "average".

 

Amazingly, he ranks 6th in DRS even though he ranks 21st in innings played at 3B.

 

I'm okay with calling him slightly plus this year at 3B Defense, but I have to challenge those who are acting like his defense is so good, it makes up for his questionable bat.

 

Now, when comparing him to Pablo, Holt and others, I have no gripe with anyone who ranks him number 1 right now as projected for 2017 opening day.

[Spudboy]

Shaw's got a good base of defense to justify his spot in the lineup while he works on his offensive approach.

 

He's average, at best on defense at 3B. I wouldn't say being average justifies much, but when you're going against Pablo and Holt....

 

Nonsense slav. He has a lofty 1.8dWAR!!!!!! You must be wrong!

[moonslav59]

Holt was, unfortunately, well below average as a third baseman. His thing is about being able to show up at multiple positions without being a major liability in any of them, but third base is one of his weaker ones. There is simply other, better ways to use the talent that is Brock Holt. Shaw also outhit Holt on the season for what that's worth.

 

Holt outhit Shaw over the second half of the season, and that's why he was given the job once Hill bombed out.

 

What's weird about Holt, to me, is that his career UZR/150 at various positions is all over the map, and the positions you think he's not good at, look better on paper. Of course, some of these sample sizes are tiny, but here they are...

 

Inn. Pos. UZR/150

798 3B -11.6

681 2B +3.9

610 LF -12.1

453 RF +16.4

212 SS +12.0

119 1B -2.0

76 CF -33.2

 

I'd say he should be better at 3B than SS and better at LF than CF.

I do think his best position is 2B with maybe LF/3B tied for second.

 

 

[moonslav59]

haw does not really have very much actual competition at third base until Sandoval begins to seriously redeem himself. Which he has not yet done.

 

He lost his job to Hill and Holt.

 

I do think he might be the best we got looking to next year, but certainly a guy who lost his job has competition going forward.

[cp176]

Assuming he's not just the second half Shaw for all of next year.

 

I didn't mention Hernandez because I don't want to see him at third. Second base and shortstop for him in my mind. I was never a Rutledge fan. I really think that Dubon winds up at either second or short eventually either for us or someone else. I really like Dubon. I think that he has the potential to make us forget all about Guerra being included in "the deal". As a matter of fact, it is conceiveable that his development may affect whether bogaerts gets the contract from the Sox he wants or not. It might even prompt his permanent move to third.

[Dojji]

Every number I've seen said that Shaw had an above average season playing defense at third. The only possible debate between the various metrics is how far above the average he was.

 

Well, UZR/150 is one pretty respected metric. You have to go down to 550 innings to get a sample size of 32 players at 3B. You need 30 to determine what is "average", since there are 30 teams and 30 3Bmen in MLB.

 

Shaw ranked 17th out of 32 at +1.6. That's slightly below average.

 

If you go to 572 innings, the sample size is 30. Shaw ranks 16th out of 30- slightly below "average".

 

Amazingly, he ranks 6th in DRS even though he ranks 21st in innings played at 3B.

 

I'm okay with calling him slightly plus this year at 3B Defense, but I have to challenge those who are acting like his defense is so good, it makes up for his questionable bat.

 

Now, when comparing him to Pablo, Holt and others, I have no gripe with anyone who ranks him number 1 right now as projected for 2017 opening day.

 

Holt was, unfortunately, well below average as a third baseman. His thing is about being able to show up at multiple positions without being a major liability in any of them, but third base is one of his weaker ones. There is simply other, better ways to use the talent that is Brock Holt. Shaw also outhit Holt on the season for what that's worth.

 

Holt outhit Shaw over the second half of the season, and that's why he was given the job once Hill bombed out.

 

What's weird about Holt, to me, is that his career UZR/150 at various positions is all over the map, and the positions you think he's not good at, look better on paper. Of course, some of these sample sizes are tiny, but here they are...

 

Inn. Pos. UZR/150

798 3B -11.6

681 2B +3.9

610 LF -12.1

453 RF +16.4

212 SS +12.0

119 1B -2.0

76 CF -33.2

 

I'd say he should be better at 3B than SS and better at LF than CF.

I do think his best position is 2B with maybe LF/3B tied for second.

 

 

 

haw does not really have very much actual competition at third base until Sandoval begins to seriously redeem himself. Which he has not yet done.

 

He lost his job to Hill and Holt.

 

I do think he might be the best we got looking to next year, but certainly a guy who lost his job has competition going forward.

 

[Jack Flap]

Margot or Benintendi -- pick one, trade the other. You can't give both the meaningful playing time they need. You've seen the issues we're having trying to develop 2 players for the same position at catcher, it just doesn't work very well, the issue at the moment at catcher seems to be more centered around there never being a good time to trade one catcher or the other without screwing our depth. We did not have the same problem with the two young CF prospects.

 

When it comes to having two top prospects in the same position at the same level, it just doesn't do to be indecisive. You need to pick one and move the other and trust your read on which one to move. We picked Benintendi. It was the right decision. The only question was what to trade Margot FOR.

 

I don't see any urgent need to choose between a prospect in Double-A and a prospect in Single-A, which is what Margot and Benintendi were at the time. I'm happy with the Beni/Bradley/Betts outfield we have set for the near future, but still having Margot around (or having been able to trade him for other needs, as Moon mentioned) would be attractive as well.

 

Ultimately, there are reasons to like or dislike the Kimbrel trade, but the argument that Margot was "blocked," so who cares what we got for him, never held water for me...and I'm putting this out there not out of some desire to rehash the Kimbrel deal for the umpteenth time, but because I anticipate similar discussions being had about Devers in the near future (assuming we sort out the 3B/1B/DH situation at the major league level this winter). A player who's a year or more away from being major league ready is not "blocked" in any meaningful sense, simply because so much can change in that time.

[Dojji]

Benintendi blew right by Margot. We made the right decision here.

[moonslav59]

Benintendi blew right by Margot. We made the right decision here.

 

To me, the argument wasn't about choosing Margot or Beni, it was about getting a RP'er for 4 prospects and how we also paid Kimbrel near FA market money in the process.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, the argument wasn't about choosing Margot or Beni, it was about getting a RP'er for 4 prospects and how we also paid Kimbrel near FA market money in the process.

 

You can say that again.

[moonslav59]

You can say that again.

 

I hate to repeat myself.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I didn't mention Hernandez because I don't want to see him at third. Second base and shortstop for him in my mind.

 

I'm not sure why not. He's probably a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, but that's not a known fact.

 

This is known:

 

Hernandez

AA: .832 OPS (294 PAs)

AAA: .752 OPS (427 PAs)

MLB: .730 OPS (56 PAs)

 

T Shaw

AA: .795 (870 PAs)

AAA: .715 (668 PAs)

MLB: .754 (778 PAs)

 

The sample sizes are unbalanced, and certainly Shaw's MLB .754 OPS in 778 PAs should carry more weight than anything Hernandez has done in the minors, but overall, the OPS numbers look comparable. It could also be noted that Shaw's sample sizes at AA and AAA were significant enough to carry a lot of weight too.

 

 

I was never a Rutledge fan.

 

I'm not a huge Rutledge fan myself, but word was that Ben always liked the guy. He's maybe a better fielder at 3B than SS, where he has played most of his career.

 

AA: .846 (379 PAs)

AAA: .826 (583 PAs)

MLB: .709 (1088 PAs mostly as a SS)

[cp176]

I saw Hernandez play and think that trying to make him into a third baseman would be a waste. Shaw is good for 20 home runs and 75 plus RBI's. Hernandez will not give us that. I like my corner infielders to have a little pop.

I wish that Ben had taken Rutledge with him when he left.

 

As for Encarnarcion - 3 years at 18 per. Maybe an option - maybe not. His choice from there on in. I would not trade anyone that we have for any of the field position players that you mentioned. If you are trading for pitching that is an entirely separate issue. To try to improve a position such as third, which really isn't weak, by trading young prospects to borrow mediocrity for a year or two ... - nope. Pitching that's it. The deals that DD made brought us pitching. Perhaps they didn't work out the way they hoped they would but I'm going against the grain here - but they really didn't cost us much. Maybe 5 years from now one of the players traded will make an impact maybe not. The franchise is currently being run by an adult!

[moonslav59]

Shaw is good for 20 home runs and 75 plus RBI's.

 

How do you figure?

 

Here's his numbers pro-rated to 600 PAs:

 

AA: .242 21 68

AAA: .256 13 64

MLB: .251 22 82

 

Maybe I'm too caught up in his second half slump and his 668 PAs of AAA ball, but I'm not counting on anywhere near those numbers you suggested.

 

I guess this is pretty close: AAA + MLB: .253 18 74 (1446 PAs combined) but I can't bring myself to be that optimistic.

 

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox excercise David Ortiz's option for 2017

 

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/208061672/red-sox-exercise-ortizs-option-as-formality/

[Dojji]

Good. Glad to see DD is doing his due dilligence there.

 

Papi's probably gone for good, but what this does is, if he changes his mind for some reason a few months into retirement and wants to come back, he can only come here. I doubt he'd go anywhere else anyway, but it pays to go through the technicalities.

[oldtimer]

Shaw is good for 20 home runs and 75 plus RBI's.

 

How do you figure?

 

Here's his numbers pro-rated to 600 PAs:

 

AA: .242 21 68

AAA: .256 13 64

MLB: .251 22 82

 

Maybe I'm too caught up in his second half slump and his 668 PAs of AAA ball, but I'm not counting on anywhere near those numbers you suggested.

 

I guess this is pretty close: AAA + MLB: .253 18 74 (1446 PAs combined) but I can't bring myself to be that optimistic.

 

 

Shaw can field two positions well enough to be on the roster, but can he hit well enough to be even close to average for ML players at either of those positions? The AAA and second half offensive numbers indicate someone would have to be optimistic to think so. I also like Hernandez as a utility guy who can play a number of infield positions. I also like the little I have seen of his PA's. He seems to know the strike zone and doesn't chase outside the zone.

 

Probably neither Shaw or Hernandez are long term answers at 3rd, so I hope DD keeps on looking.

[moonslav59]

Shaw can field two positions well enough to be on the roster, but can he hit well enough to be even close to average for ML players at either of those positions? The AAA and second half offensive numbers indicate someone would have to be optimistic to think so. I also like Hernandez as a utility guy who can play a number of infield positions. I also like the little I have seen of his PA's. He seems to know the strike zone and doesn't chase outside the zone.

 

Probably neither Shaw or Hernandez are long term answers at 3rd, so I hope DD keeps on looking.

 

Well said, oldtimer.

 

I've always been a bit high on Hernandez, but I have never thought of him as being a solid FT player. I'm not saying he can't ever be one. His best spot may be 2B, but that seems like we can say the same about too many of our younger players, most notably Moncada.

[Dojji]

Shaw can field two positions well enough to be on the roster, but can he hit well enough to be even close to average for ML players at either of those positions? The AAA and second half offensive numbers indicate someone would have to be optimistic to think so. I also like Hernandez as a utility guy who can play a number of infield positions. I also like the little I have seen of his PA's. He seems to know the strike zone and doesn't chase outside the zone.

 

Probably neither Shaw or Hernandez are long term answers at 3rd, so I hope DD keeps on looking.

 

He is looking. Specifically he's looking at Moncada and Devers. Shaw is fine as a bridge guy until one of those two is ready to take over. Hopefully Moncada as he's closer.

 

Remember though -- plan A with Shaw is a bench guy who can give you versatility at the corners. That's still Plan A. The problem is the guy ahead of Shaw vanished in a puff of lard.

 

I think Shaw's an adequate 3B if you don't count on 3B to be what carries your team. He can hold down the fort until one of the prospects is ready. Hopefully Moncada is working hard.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

He is looking. Specifically he's looking at Moncada and Devers. Shaw is fine as a bridge guy until one of those two is ready to take over. Hopefully Moncada as he's closer.

 

Remember though -- plan A with Shaw is a bench guy who can give you versatility at the corners. That's still Plan A. The problem is the guy ahead of Shaw vanished in a puff of lard.

 

I think Shaw's an adequate 3B if you don't count on 3B to be what carries your team. He can hold down the fort until one of the prospects is ready. Hopefully Moncada is working hard.

 

I hope you're right, but if the second half Shaw shows up, we're in a tub of doo doo.

[bosoxmal]

Warning! Blasphemy ahead!!

 

I don't see all the love for Xander Bogaerts. He's beginning to look to me like one of those players who had a tremendous upside - that he'll never reach. As much criticism as JBJ has gotten here and as much as some people 'want' for JBJ to be used as trade bait, JBJ is better at his position than Xbo is at his position, and JBJ's OPS is higher. For you fans of WAR, JBJ's WAR for 2016 was 5.3 while Bogaerts WAR was 3.7.

 

The ONLY thing Bogaerts has going for him is that we don't have another player whom we think can take XBo's place.

I couldn't agree more. How he was the SS all-star selection ahead of Lindor, I don't know. The selections were made during his "hot" period, I guess. I have suggested that the Guardians might take Bradley and Bogaerts for Lindor. Better SS, better hitter than Bogie, and we alrady have the OF of Swihart/Young, Benny and Mookie. All is conversation unless we get some pitching. Right now that area is sad.

[Dojji]

I hope you're right, but if the second half Shaw shows up, we're in a tub of doo doo.

 

We really aren't. As you yourself are pointing out we have an embarrassment of options behind Shaw for a fill-in guy. I just happen to believe Shaw is the best one available -- until Sandoval has an opportunity to state his case, that's a fact.

[Dojji]

I couldn't agree more. How he was the SS all-star selection ahead of Lindor, I don't know. The selections were made during his "hot" period, I guess. I have suggested that the Guardians might take Bradley and Bogaerts for Lindor. Better SS, better hitter than Bogie, and we alrady have the OF of Swihart/Young, Benny and Mookie. All is conversation unless we get some pitching. Right now that area is sad.

The fact that there are other, better SS out there doesn't take one thing away from the fact that Xander Bogaerts is very, very good. Not too many shortstops blasted 21, drive in 89 runs or OPS over .800. We have a rare talent at short, and that talent has the potential to exceed his present performance (already excellent) if he can gain some consistency. That's not a reason to dump on Bogaerts. In fact that's freaking exciting. He had an All Star appearance that he thoroughly earned, and there's something beyond that that he can aspire to in terms overall performance? Sign me the HELL up!

 

I'm beginning to sense a trend here about people who have no memory whatsoever of events before August or so. Bogaerts was selected over Lindor because at the time, Bogaerts was hitting better than Lindor. At the end of the day Bogaerts deserves his All star nomination and he doesn't deserve to be nitpicked by fair weather fans who can't put the last 2 months of the season in proper perspective.