2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[moonslav59]

I think Kelly could be valuable in the pen. He did well this year in the pen if you can forget the catastrophes.

 

If some coach works with Kelly and gives him a BP mindset and tells him he is going to go a couple of innings, I'll take it.

 

Kelly has looked really good a number of times in his career. He's had as many bad times too.

 

He clearly has nasty stuff. I have hope in him as he enters prime years, but my point is that we should not count on him and plan on not getting an 8th inning pitcher (I think two), because of some strong confidence in him based on a month or two of good pen pitching late this past summer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Holland's velo was down, which is to be expected 13 mo after surgery. Smith returning in June would be 13 mo after surgery. Expect him not to have the velo off the bat

[moonslav59]

Holland's velo was down, which is to be expected 13 mo after surgery. Smith returning in June would be 13 mo after surgery. Expect him not to have the velo off the bat

 

I don't think we should really count on anything from Smith this year. I expect him to help maybe by July, but I don't think we should plan on it happening.

[Bellhorn04]

From what I've gathered today, it doesn't sound like either Ziegler or Koji will be coming back. Abad will return though. Personally, I'd bring Koji back if the price is right.

 

I wonder when Carson Smith will be ready. He could be our 8th inning guy, and a very good one at that.

 

Mildly surprised if it's true that there's no interest in bringing Koji back. After he came off the DL he pitched 13 scoreless, 2013-caliber innings. Durability is obviously a concern. An incentive-laden deal would seem to make sense. I'm guessing that Koji wants to pitch again in 2017 especially the way he looked at the end of the year.

[moonslav59]

Mildly surprised if it's true that there's no interest in bringing Koji back. After he came off the DL he pitched 13 scoreless, 2013-caliber innings. Durability is obviously a concern. An incentive-laden deal would seem to make sense. I'm guessing that Koji wants to pitch again in 2017 especially the way he looked at the end of the year.

 

There's just not much out there on the RP'er FA market beyond the 3 closers. I hope we offer Koji a competitive contract. Incentives sounds good, but if he's looking primarily at guaranteed money, I'd go maybe $9M/1 with a $500K bonus for 35 IP pitched and another for 50 IP.

[mvp 78]

I think not bringing Koji back is a mistake. I'd rather have too many arms in the pen than not enough.

[Dojji]

Koji could still be very very useful in a limited role

[Spudboy]

I suggested re-signing Both Koji and Taz a couple of months ago.

 

Does anyone really think better arms are out there at lower cost?

 

Maybe there are some. I'd rather go with the bird in the hand. As it were.

 

So to speak.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Spudboy

[mvp 78]

I suggested re-signing Both Koji and Taz a couple of months ago.

 

Does anyone really thing better arms are out there at lower cost?

 

Maybe there are some. I'd rather go with the bird in the hand. As it were.

 

So to speak.

 

I think Taz is done. He was overused for a long while and his arm seems completely shot.

 

As Dojji said, I think Koji can still be used in a limited role. I just don't have the same confidence in Taz.

[mvp 78]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-rp

 

Unless Holland is cheap, I don't see the Sox grabbing another former closer. At best, they'll probably bring back Koji and pick up a guy like Joe Smith.

[Palodios]

Does anyone else feel nervous about Dave's ability to build a bullpen? Elite bullpens are becoming a bigger and bigger part of strong playoff teams, and that's always been DD's fatal flaw.

[Bellhorn04]

Does anyone else feel nervous about Dave's ability to build a bullpen? Elite bullpens are becoming a bigger and bigger part of strong playoff teams, and that's always been DD's fatal flaw.

 

I don't think he did a terrible job this year. Some bad luck with Smith and Kimbrel underperformed. Ziegler was a solid pickup.

[Spudboy]

I think Taz is done. He was overused for a long while and his arm seems completely shot.

 

As Dojji said, I think Koji can still be used in a limited role. I just don't have the same confidence in Taz.

 

No doubt that Taz looked like toast late in both of the past two seasons.

 

Does that really indicate that he is of little or no value to the Sox going forward? I don't know.

 

If so, let him walk. Otherwise, signing him may be in order.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt that Taz looked like toast late in both of the past two seasons.

 

Does that really indicate that he is of little or no value to the Sox going forward? I don't know.

 

If so, let him walk. Otherwise, signing him may be in order.

 

If we could get him back really cheap, sure.

[moonslav59]

I think Taz is done. He was overused for a long while and his arm seems completely shot.

 

As Dojji said, I think Koji can still be used in a limited role. I just don't have the same confidence in Taz.

 

Totally agree.

[sk7326]

Warning! Blasphemy ahead!!

 

I don't see all the love for Xander Bogaerts. He's beginning to look to me like one of those players who had a tremendous upside - that he'll never reach. As much criticism as JBJ has gotten here and as much as some people 'want' for JBJ to be used as trade bait, JBJ is better at his position than Xbo is at his position, and JBJ's OPS is higher. For you fans of WAR, JBJ's WAR for 2016 was 5.3 while Bogaerts WAR was 3.7.

 

The ONLY thing Bogaerts has going for him is that we don't have another player whom we think can take XBo's place.

 

That rise from 7 HRs to 21 HRs and being a 4-5 win player doesn't reflect ascending to upside - of course, he's 24 so his prime is over.

 

Bradley is almost three years older than Bogaerts. Similar WAR, premium position, significantly younger, higher probability it will stick - decision is easy.

 

Since WAR (or a wins-above-replacement computation of baseball accomplishments) is how teams evaluate players (though they have their own ingredients to put in the soup), that seems fair.

[moonslav59]

That rise from 7 HRs to 21 HRs and being a 4-5 win player doesn't reflect ascending to upside - of course, he's 24 so his prime is over.

 

Bradley is almost three years older than Bogaerts. Similar WAR, premium position, significantly younger, higher probability it will stick - decision is easy.

 

Since WAR (or a wins-above-replacement computation of baseball accomplishments) is how teams evaluate players (though they have their own ingredients to put in the soup), that seems fair.

 

I'm not sure how much teams use WAR, but I'm sure they use comprehensive evaluations on all aspects of their skills.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure how much teams use WAR, but I'm sure they use comprehensive evaluations on all aspects of their skills.

 

My understanding is that teams use (in a lot of cases) their own recipe for WAR ... a sum of measured baseball accomplishments compared to a replacement level baseline. Of course they also have this massive amount of Statcast data that the public doesn't get ... so I am sure they use measures that differ from what we get and what other teams do.

 

All I am saying is that the general principle is sound - this is not something like RBIs which don't mean anything to an org in terms of performance measurement.

 

WAR after all is just a normalized sum of all of a player's measured accomplishments on the diamond ...

[Kimmi]

Mildly surprised if it's true that there's no interest in bringing Koji back. After he came off the DL he pitched 13 scoreless, 2013-caliber innings. Durability is obviously a concern. An incentive-laden deal would seem to make sense. I'm guessing that Koji wants to pitch again in 2017 especially the way he looked at the end of the year.

 

I agree 100% about bringing Koji back. I'm sure there's some interest. I'm sure it depends on the cost. Dombrowski said that he was specifically looking for a guy who can pitch a clean 8th inning, not multiple innings. I guess he doesn't have confidence in Koji being durable enough to be that guy.

[a700hitter]

What a bust he turned out to be. He is also an example of the risk of giving a long term contract to a guy with no MLB experience

[h=1]Astros Place Jon Singleton On Outright Waivers[/h]By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2016 at 12:48pm CDT

The Astros have placed first baseman Jon Singleton on outright waivers yesterday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Kaplan expects Singleton to clear waivers when eligible on Tuesday, and Singleton will then be outrighted to Triple-A, and off the Astros’ 40-man roster.

Once considered one of the top minor leaguers in the sport, Singleton was the centerpiece of the prospect package sent by the Phillies to the Astros in July 2011 for Hunter Pence. Houston even signed Singleton to a five-year, $10MM extension prior to his major league debut in 2014, a deal that drew quite a bit of controversy given how it was perceived by some (including the MLBPA) as Singleton signing away quite a bit of future earning potential.

As it turned out, Singleton may have done well to lock down a big payday given his struggles over the last few years. He hit just .171/.290/.331 over 420 plate appearances in 2014-15 and he didn’t play in the bigs at all in 2016, instead spending the year at Triple-A Fresno and hitting .202/.337/.390 over 501 PA. That batting line is particularly concerning given that Singleton was playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

[Spudboy]

What a bust he turned out to be. He is also an example of the risk of giving a long term contract to a guy with no MLB experience

 

I think that Rusney is a bigger bust given the bigger $$$$ involved.

[a700hitter]

I think that Rusney is a bigger bust given the bigger $$$$ involved.

Plus Rusney is older. There is less of a chance that he can develop.

[southpaw777]

That rise from 7 HRs to 21 HRs and being a 4-5 win player doesn't reflect ascending to upside - of course, he's 24 so his prime is over.

 

Bradley is almost three years older than Bogaerts. Similar WAR, premium position, significantly younger, higher probability it will stick - decision is easy.

 

Since WAR (or a wins-above-replacement computation of baseball accomplishments) is how teams evaluate players (though they have their own ingredients to put in the soup), that seems fair.

 

He LOVES great defensive players...didnt like Xander taking Iggys place, even though Iggy is about useless IMHO and has an attitude...Xander will be fine. Its certainly not unusual to struggle a little at this age

The HR went up significantly...the runs went way up. Obp the same, more RBI, slg went up..ba went down to 294, but if thats an off year, Im good.

Not sure what there is to complain about...maybe hes still a little crusty over the Iggy deal

Just messin with ya 5

Edited November 20, 2016 by southpaw777

[southpaw777]

Well.. based on the thinking that his being moved from SS to 3B is some kind of a "demotion" - which you've already agreed to - this has left me shaking my head. Is it a demotion of someone is moved to another position because management thinkis that move is in the best interest of the team? This is in the same vein as the discussion about Kimbrel asking for a trade if the Sox pick up Chapman in the off season. Baseball is a team sport and it's not "all about ME".

 

Maybe I'm 'old school'. I think that when a player signs that contract they're agreeing to play whenever and wherever management wants them to play, and do it to the very best of their ability.

 

Some people need to realize that not all players can be moved around. They are great at one position and just OK at others...Xander started playing ball as a teenager so he had only played ss for a few years before Boston got him. And it wasnt training in the US, so he was very raw still. it was an unnecessary demotion and was a dumbass move by the organization...he went to 3b and didnt complain one bit. He was honest about being very uncomfortabl but still did his best. He did what he was asked to do so whats the issue?

And as far as closing...Chapman wouldnt come here anyway if he wasnt the closer. Guys have defined roles and need to stay there because thats where they are at their best...

[Kimmi]

Some people need to realize that not all players can be moved around. They are great at one position and just OK at others...Xander started playing ball as a teenager so he had only played ss for a few years before Boston got him. And it wasnt training in the US, so he was very raw still. it was an unnecessary demotion and was a dumbass move by the organization...he went to 3b and didnt complain one bit. He was honest about being very uncomfortabl but still did his best. He did what he was asked to do so whats the issue?

And as far as closing...Chapman wouldnt come here anyway if he wasnt the closer. Guys have defined roles and need to stay there because thats where they are at their best...

 

I agree that some players cannot be moved around, but in most cases, I think it's more of a mental/ego thing than it is an ability thing. The decisions about where a player plays have to be made based on what's best for the team, not what's best for the player. I don't think management would ask a player to play a position that they did not think the player has the ability to play.

 

If a player is asked to take on a less 'prestigious' role for the betterment of the team, then he should do it with a team first attitude. It should not be considered as a demotion, but rather as how the player can best help his team.

[S5Dewey]

Some people need to realize that not all players can be moved around. They are great at one position and just OK at others....

And as far as closing...Chapman wouldn't come here anyway if he wasn't the closer. Guys have defined roles and need to stay there because thats where they are at their best...

 

It's not that simple. One can start at the top of the defensive spectrum and move players down in that spectrum with success but it doesn't work the other way. Moving XBO from SS to 3B should make for an improvement at 3B while moving Travis Shaw from 3B to SS would probably be a disaster in the making. Players can be moved from one position to another but the FO has to be smart about doing it. [see: Bill Belichick & the Patriots]

 

Regarding the closer situation as it pertains to Chapman vs. Kimbrel now....

If I'm a GM I want guys on my team who will 'suck it up' and play for the good of the team Guys like Koji & A. Miller. Guys who could close but instead are willing to fill whatever role they are put into without grousing about it. Too many of these professional players have become such prima donnas that the tail is now wagging the dog.

 

If Chapman refuses to come to Boston because he fears he wouldn't be the closer, or if Kimbrel doesn't want to play behind Chapman (or anyone else), I say, "Fine. Move on, then." If Chapman doesn't think he's good enough to unseat Kimbrel as the closer or he doesn't want that challenge, well, Chapman probably knows Chapman better than we do.

It's the same with Kimbrel. If he doesn't think he can hold his position in the face of having Chapman on the team then he's probably right.

And if either one of those guys has such a big ego that they're willing move on rather than be a part of a lights-out BP they're going to fail as the 8th inning guy anyway. Let's weed out the guys with the big egos and those who believe in themselves from those who don't and build a better team.

[S5Dewey]

I agree that some players cannot be moved around, but in most cases, I think it's more of a mental/ego thing than it is an ability thing. The decisions about where a player plays have to be made based on what's best for the team, not what's best for the player. I don't think management would ask a player to play a position that they did not think the player has the ability to play.

 

If a player is asked to take on a less 'prestigious' role for the betterment of the team, then he should do it with a team first attitude. It should not be considered as a demotion, but rather as how the player can best help his team.

 

We were typing at the same time. To your post I say YES!

[Kimmi]

We were typing at the same time. To your post I say YES!

 

LOL I was thinking about Koji and Andrew Miller when I was typing my post.

 

Also, look at Mookie. He was moved from second base to the outfield. Then, he was moved from CF to RF. Both moves could be thought of as 'demotions', but Mookie did what the team asked him to do and made the best of it.

[Dojji]

I agree that some players cannot be moved around, but in most cases, I think it's more of a mental/ego thing than it is an ability thing.

 

The fact that it's an "ego thing" doesn't mean that the limitation can be ignored. Players can't always be expected to put their ego aside. This is competitive sports, not the military. Ego can be central to the confidence some players need to perform well.

[S5Dewey]

LOL I was thinking about Koji and Andrew Miller when I was typing my post.

 

Also, look at Mookie. He was moved from second base to the outfield. Then, he was moved from CF to RF. Both moves could be thought of as 'demotions', but Mookie did what the team asked him to do and made the best of it.

 

I didn't see moving Mookie from 2B to CF as being a "demotion". In fact, I saw it as a promotion, and since there's little to no future for a 2Bman in the Red Sox organization it was a promotion begging to be made. I recognize that there's a mindset that CF is the premier outfield position but IMO that doesn't hold true in Fenway park. We learned the value of having two CF'ers in Fenway with one in CF and one in RF during Victornio's stay here - or at least I hope we did. I see CF & RF as being equal on the defensive spectrum in Fenway with LF being the only OF demotion.

 

Either Mookie saw it that way too or he, as you say, did what the team asked him to do and made the best of it. Either way, Mookie was the winner.