A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Benintendi may bat third eventually, but that seems hasty when he has less than 2 months in the majors under his belt and the team already has Mookie Betts coming off a Trout-lite type season. I'm sure Beni will be great, but methinks we need to pump the brakes on the hype just a bit until he's proven more.

 

Plus, I personally like the best overall hitter up 3rd.

 

That would be Betts.

[Jack Flap]

Plus, I personally like the best overall hitter up 3rd.

 

That would be Betts.

 

Precisely.

[moonslav59]

Precisely.

 

Beni's got good speed. Eventually, I'd like to see him up 1st.

 

If Bogey show's increasingly more power, I'd fine with him up 4th or 5th, but I kind of like the idea of him up second behind Beni with Pedey moved to 4th or 5th.

 

Maybe vs LHPs: Beni-Bogey-Betts, but vs RHPs: Beni-Pedey-Betts.

 

Bogey is 130 points better vs lefties (.847 to .771); Pedey is about even.

[moonslav59]

Biggest career split differentials:

 

162 Pablo (much better vs RHPs)

139 Young (better vs LHPs)

130 Bogey (better vs LHPs)

105 Moreland (better vs RHPs)

97 S Leon (better vs LHPs)

83 Vazquez (better vs LHPs)

69 HanRam (better vs LHP but still .844 vs RHPs)

64 JBJ (better vs RHPs)

54 Swihart (better vs LHPs)

50 Pedey (better vs LHPs)

29 Betts (better vs RHPs)

5 Holt (actually slightly better vs LHPS!)

 

Beni only has 85 PAs vs RHPs (.984) and 33 vs LHPs (.429), but his splits need to be monitored. Tiny sample sizes, but the differential is a staggering 556!

 

[greenwell]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/03/silverman_which_is_best_drafting_or_trading_for_pitching_it_s_a_homegrown

 

Silverman: Which is best, drafting or trading for pitching? It’s a homegrown dilemma

 

Interesting debate....

 

I'm bored....and I often have stupid ideas. If major league rules allow it, can an organization completely do away with farm system? Say that saves altogether $50M in annual expenses and you use it for major league payroll. Can a team compete strictly with free agent signings having a budget of $250M? (ignore luxury tax)

 

Is there actually a savings from doing away with the farm system? There are independent minor league teams so they must not be operating at a loss.

[moonslav59]

Is there actually a savings from doing away with the farm system? There are independent minor league teams so they must not be operating at a loss.

 

We could just stop drafting pitchers and just resign ourselves to trading for them.

 

We have such a good record drafting positional players that we could stock up on to deal for pitchers that are more proven.

[Nick]

I see that Dustin walked and was pulled (just looking at box score)...did he get hurt or just getting pulled after making an appearance.

[harmony]

Trey Ball apparently walked Brock Holt and Mookie Betts on eight straight pitches but got out of the inning:

 

http://m.mlb.com/gameday/united-states-vs-red-sox/2017/03/09/509567?#game_tab=gameday,game=509567,game_state=live

[Kimmi]

While ERod was the clear leader in pitches per PA among our top starters last year, it was only by about 0.20. That amounts to about one more pitch every 5 PAs. I'm not sure that as bad as it seems when watching him pitch last year.

 

4.03 ERod

3.91 Pom (with Sox only)

3.83 Porcello

3.79 Wright

3.78 Buch

3.78 Price

 

RP'ers:

4.36 Kimbrel

4.17 Koji

4.13 Barnes

4.06 Ross

4.01 Taz

3.93 Kelly

3.92 Abad

3.92 Scott

3.87 Hembree

3.58 Ziegler

 

 

Perhaps it's not so much the pitches per PA as the IP per start. ERod averaged 5.4 innings per start, which was better than Pomeranz' 5.2, but more than an inning less per start than Porcello, Price, and Wright.

[Kimmi]

Benintendi may bat third eventually, but that seems hasty when he has less than 2 months in the majors under his belt and the team already has Mookie Betts coming off a Trout-lite type season. I'm sure Beni will be great, but methinks we need to pump the brakes on the hype just a bit until he's proven more.

 

I agree that it might be a little hasty putting Beni at the top of the order so soon. He may be able to handle it, but it's also a lot to put on the shoulders of someone who's still considered a prospect. I would start off batting him lower in the order.

[Kimmi]

Plus, I personally like the best overall hitter up 3rd.

 

That would be Betts.

 

No, no, no, no, and no.

 

The #3 hitter should be your 5th, maybe your 4th best hitter. Betts should bat either 2nd or 4th.

[Kimmi]

Precisely.

 

And no once again.

[Kimmi]

I see that Dustin walked and was pulled (just looking at box score)...did he get hurt or just getting pulled after making an appearance.

 

He is fine. He was pulled because of the upcoming schedule.

[moonslav59]

I would too.

 

Give Beni a period of low stress.

[moonslav59]

No, no, no, no, and no.

 

The #3 hitter should be your 5th, maybe your 4th best hitter. Betts should bat either 2nd or 4th.

 

I know you got numbers to support your claim, but I still like the best up 3rd.

 

(See, I'm not always about numbers.)

[cp176]

I know you got numbers to support your claim, but I still like the best up 3rd.

 

(See, I'm not always about numbers.)

 

I think that it depends on how you interpret the numbers. What specifically determines who your best hitter is? I would think that if you had a team filled with fairly good hitters you have the luxury of putting specific types of hitters in positions that you think will help the team the most. I like my best run producer batting third.

[Bellhorn04]

I was surprised when Kimmi said research showed that the 3 spot is not a great place for your best hitter. Apparently it has to do with the fact the 3 hitter comes up with 2 outs and no one on more than any other position. I would assume a hefty chunk of those instances occur in the first inning.

[moonslav59]

I was surprised when Kimmi said research showed that the 3 spot is not a great place for your best hitter. Apparently it has to do with the fact the 3 hitter comes up with 2 outs and no one on more than any other position. I would assume a hefty chunk of those instances occur in the first inning.

 

If you're on a good team with good OB% guys up 1 & 2, your 3rd guy should get lots of chances with at least one man on base.

 

How many times do other slots get up with no men on and 2 outs in an average game? Probably less than the 3 slot.

[Bellhorn04]

If you're on a good team with good OB% guys up 1 & 2, your 3rd guy should get lots of chances with at least one man on base.

 

It does seem to make sense. And it seems to give you the best chance of scoring runs in the first inning and getting a lead. OTOH I don't doubt that Kimmi's research findings are accurate.

[cp176]

if the data is used, it has to fit the needs of the specific team it is being used for. One size does not fit all.

[moonslav59]

It does seem to make sense. And it seems to give you the best chance of scoring runs in the first inning and getting a lead. OTOH I don't doubt that Kimmi's research findings are accurate.

 

Scoring in the first inning is often a good way to win games. Even if Betts gets up with 2 outs and none on, we still have a chance to score. He can even single or walk, steal a abse and come in on a hit by HanRam.

[Nick]

I'm an old school guy with no analytics....

 

I was always told you put your best hitter in 3 spot. At the high school level, that was usually your shortstop or a pitcher, your best all around athlete. Probably the quarterback on the football team that's dating the head cheerleader (how am I doing Kimmi?). Hits for high average and has power. Basically .333 guy with 30 home runs.

 

Your best power guy batted clean up. In high school, maybe your catcher or the corner infield guy. Not as athletic as the #3 hitter. Hits .300 with 40 homers. Usually dates a pretty girl with no athletic background. Basically your faithful girl that comes to all the games. A church goer.

 

You put your best speed guy, probably playing center field, leading off. Great contact hitter. In high school, he's probably hitting well over .400 with 30 steals in 30 games. His girl friend is little bit on the wild side. She's an athlete.

 

Your second hitter is patient at the plate, always playing the game the right way. He maybe a lefty but if a righty, he hits to opposite field often. He sacrifices his batting average a little for the good of the team, bunting and moving runners over. He dates a sweet girl that volunteers quite a bit for local charities.

 

Your #5 hitter hits for power but does not make contact as often as the clean up hitter. He maybe a DH or RF on a high school team. Hits .280 and 35 home runs. He dates a smart girl who will make a good wife.

 

That's my top 5 slots and I'm sticking to it no matter what Kimmi says.

Edited March 10, 2017 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

There is also a prestige factor that comes into play. Most players are not that deep into metrics. Each spot in the batting order carries certain expectations. An elite hitter (Betts for instance ) reasonably would expect to bat third or fourth.

[moonslav59]

I'm an old school guy with no analytics....

 

I was always told you put your best hitter in 3 spot. At the high school level, that was usually your shortstop or a pitcher, your best all around athlete. Probably the quarterback on the football team that's dating the head cheerleader (how am I doing Kimmi?). Hits for high average and has power. Basically .333 guy with 30 home runs.

 

Your best power guy batted clean up. In high school, maybe your catcher or the corner infield guy. Not as athletic as the #3 hitter. Hits .300 with 40 homers. Usually dates a pretty girl with no athletic background. Basically your faithful girl that comes to all the games. A church goer.

 

You put your best speed guy, probably playing center field, leading off. Great contact hitter. In high school, he's probably hitting well over .400 with 30 steals in 30 games. His girl friend is little bit on the wild side. She's an athlete.

 

Your second hitter is patient at the plate, always playing the game the right way. He maybe a lefty but if a righty, he hits to opposite field often. He sacrifices his batting average a little for the good of the team, bunting and moving runners over. He dates a sweet girl that volunteers quite a bit for local charities.

 

Your #5 hitter hits for power but does not make contact as often as the clean up hitter. He maybe a DH or RF on a high school team. Hits .280 and 35 home runs. He dates a smart girl who will make a good wife.

 

That's my top 5 slots and I'm sticking to it no matter what Kimmi says.

 

I pretty much agree.

 

I start my line-up by penciling in my best overall hitter in the 3 spot.

 

Then, I look at my best OBP and SLG guys. I try to put one of my best OBP guys up first with speed as the tiebreaker.

 

I like another high OBP guy up second. I'm not so big on "must make contact" from this slot. Just get on base.

 

My best power hitter goes 4th, unless there's someone with almost the same power but better OB skills.

 

From 5 to 9, I go best overall hitter down to worst. If it's close to a tie, I alternate lefty-righty, but not to an extreme.

[Kimmi]

It does seem to make sense. And it seems to give you the best chance of scoring runs in the first inning and getting a lead. OTOH I don't doubt that Kimmi's research findings are accurate.

 

This is another area that the stat geeks have researched over and over and over. The optimal line up takes into account that your best OBP guys are batting 1st and 2nd. Even with the best OBP guys batting 1 and 2, the #3 spot is not as important as the #1, 2, or 4 spots.

 

If you want the best chance of scoring runs in the first and optimize the line up at the same time, put Mookie in the #2 spot. That also gives him more at bats. Te team will not get the most value batting him 3rd. Papi shouldn't have been batting 3rd either.

[Kimmi]

I'm an old school guy with no analytics....

 

I was always told you put your best hitter in 3 spot. At the high school level, that was usually your shortstop or a pitcher, your best all around athlete. Probably the quarterback on the football team that's dating the head cheerleader (how am I doing Kimmi?). Hits for high average and has power. Basically .333 guy with 30 home runs.

 

Your best power guy batted clean up. In high school, maybe your catcher or the corner infield guy. Not as athletic as the #3 hitter. Hits .300 with 40 homers. Usually dates a pretty girl with no athletic background. Basically your faithful girl that comes to all the games. A church goer.

 

You put your best speed guy, probably playing center field, leading off. Great contact hitter. In high school, he's probably hitting well over .400 with 30 steals in 30 games. His girl friend is little bit on the wild side. She's an athlete.

 

Your second hitter is patient at the plate, always playing the game the right way. He maybe a lefty but if a righty, he hits to opposite field often. He sacrifices his batting average a little for the good of the team, bunting and moving runners over. He dates a sweet girl that volunteers quite a bit for local charities.

 

Your #5 hitter hits for power but does not make contact as often as the clean up hitter. He maybe a DH or RF on a high school team. Hits .280 and 35 home runs. He dates a smart girl who will make a good wife.

 

That's my top 5 slots and I'm sticking to it no matter what Kimmi says.

 

This is typical, traditional batting order that is accepted by many as the best line up.

 

Unfortunately, it is not the way a line up should be constructed.

 

It's not what I say, it's what the research and data say.

[Kimmi]

There is also a prestige factor that comes into play. Most players are not that deep into metrics. Each spot in the batting order carries certain expectations. An elite hitter (Betts for instance ) reasonably would expect to bat third or fourth.

 

I do agree with this. It's not just a prestige factor but also a comfort factor.

 

Most managers, being old school, would never think of putting someone like Papi batting lead off over batting him 3rd. Papi's best spot would be 4th, but he would serve the team better hitting 1st than he would hitting 3rd.

[moonslav59]

Might be overly simplistic:

 

League Runs + RBI - HR by batting slot

 

1) 3060 + 1996 -576 =4480

 

2) 2926 + 2257 - 608 = 4575

 

3) 2844 + 2964 -860 = 4948

 

4) 2690 + 3052 - 930 = 4812

 

5) 2450 + 2640 - 769 = 4321

 

Remember, each slot has significantly less PAs as you go down from 1 to 5 and beyond.

 

I'm not doubting the studies that Kimmi speaks of, but for the same reasons for wanting Betts up 2nd not 3rd (namely more PAs) could apply to wanting him up 3rd not 4th or 5th.

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

Might be overly simplistic:

 

League Runs + RBI - HR by batting slot

 

1) 3060 + 1996 -576 =4480

 

2) 2926 + 2257 - 608 = 4575

 

3) 2844 + 2964 -860 = 4948

 

4) 2690 + 3052 - 930 = 4812

 

5) 2450 + 2640 - 769 = 4321

 

Remember, each slot has significantly less PAs as you go down from 1 to 5 and beyond.

 

I'm not doubting the studies that Kimmi speaks of, but for the same reasons for wanting Betts up 2nd not 3rd (namely more PAs) could apply to wanting him up 3rd not 4th or 5th.

 

Are you using last year's data? I don't think the data gives a good indication of where hitters should bat, because most managers are still setting their lineups according to the conventional roles.

 

The studies that are done look at the entire season. Even with the #3 slot getting more PAs than #4 over the season, the team would be better off with Mookie batting 4th rather than 3rd.

 

All that said, the difference between Mookie batting 3rd or 4th is really, really small. Insignificant really. Farrell should bat him and the rest of the team where they feel most comfortable batting.

[Fisk]

Just as important as ideally where each hitter should hit, is the breaking up of all the righties at the top of the order. I do want Betts to get as many at bats as possible, so I would place him second.

 

Pedroia

Betts

Beni

Ramirez

Boegarts

Sandavol

Bradley

Moreland

Catcher, unless it's Swihart.