A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Very good research

 

Not really. The SSS makes the numbers meaningless.

 

He hadone hot month. Nothing more.

[Fisk]

^ Lavarnway super fan

 

Brilliant

[mvp 78]

Brilliant

 

About as brilliant as you saying "you never saw him play, stats are meaningless."

[mvp 78]

Harmony I'm sure has never actually seen him play, he's basing everything off projections which are wrong quite a bit. You just see his swing and you know he's eventually going to be a good hitter.

 

You are totally right he was rushed to the majors in 15, and actually had a very good second half with the bat.

 

No logic here. Just nonsense.

 

Eyeball test. Sound off the bat. All corrupted by bias.

[Fisk]

About as brilliant as you saying "you never saw him play, stats are meaningless."

 

Never said stats are meaningless , putting words into my mouth. I was saying I love his swing and he probably will develop into a very good hitter.

[Fisk]

No logic here. Just nonsense.

 

Eyeball test. Sound off the bat. All corrupted by bias.

 

45 years of watching baseball no bias. You are ridiculous.

[Fisk]

Not really. The SSS makes the numbers meaningless.

 

He hadone hot month. Nothing more.

 

I'm guessing you are smarter then scouts and gms, should get yourself a job in baseball.

[User Name]

But what exactly do the scouts say about Swihart right now? I keep seeing you're quoting scouts, but what scouts, and what are they saying?

[moonslav59]

Not really. The SSS makes the numbers meaningless.

 

He hadone hot month. Nothing more.

 

I never said the sample sizes were large enough, but I responding to the point made that his hot streak was vs weak pitching. The numbers how that his he has faced some tough pitchers and done alright- tiny sample sizes or not.

 

I'm not saying we can base anything on his career MLB sample size, and that's why I researched to show the point made was not an accurate reflection of his sample size as a whole.

[moonslav59]

But what exactly do the scouts say about Swihart right now? I keep seeing you're quoting scouts, but what scouts, and what are they saying?

 

Couldn't find anything too recent, but here's what soxprospects.com has and it has been recently updated...

 

Physical Description: Athletic build, lean muscle, solid core. Has filed out considerably since signing, especially in his lower half, but still has some room for added bulk without losing athleticism.

 

Hit: Switch hitter with fluid, line-drive stroke from both sides. Plus bat speed and bat control through the zone with loud, consistent contact. Uses whole field. Solid pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, and understanding of the strike zone. Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. Battles. Doesn’t use batting gloves.

 

Power: Strong for his size. More to come as he physically matures. More present power from the right side. Squares balls up with consistency. Doesn’t sell out for power. However, plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs).

 

Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage.

 

Field: Consistent sub 2.0 pop times, typically between 1.8-1.9. Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism. Began getting reps in left field after being optioned back to Pawtucket in April 2016.

 

Run: Average runner, but above-average for catcher. Can go first to third and score from second. Alert on the basepaths with good instincts.

 

Career Notes: Committed to the University of Texas prior to signing. Primarily played shortstop and outfield in high school. Played for Team USA 18-and-Under National Team in 2010. Also played basketball in high school.

 

Summation: Future first-division regular and solid contributor across the board. Potential above-average hit tool and average power potential at a premium defensive position. Athleticism behind the plate immediately stands out. Natural instincts. Confident actions. Elite makeup and strong work ethic. Arguably the best catching prospect in the game right now.

[moonslav59]

Chris Smith article...

 

Peter Gammons reported in December several teams expressed interested in trading for 24-year-old catcher Blake Swihart during the Winter Meetings but Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski "refused to talk about him."

 

It seems former Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a special assistant in Boston's front office, might have helped convince Dombrowski that Swihart is a keeper.

 

In the past few days, Dombrowski has mentioned twice how high Varitek is on Swihart's ability. Dombrowski said on Buster Olney's podcast, "In Blake Swihart's case, he's a real good offensive player. He has the ability to be a good receiver behind the plate. Jason Varitek -- who knows much more about catching than I do -- tells me he's going to be an outstanding big league catcher still. In his mind, he just continues to develop." Dombrowski then appeared on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio on Monday and said, "We project Blake Swihart as being a type of guy that can be an All-Star catcher, also. He's a switch hitter. He's a very good offensive player. He has the defensive capabilities. Still needs some work back there. But as Jason Varitek says for us -- and he knows a lot more about catching than I do -- he says he still thinks that he's going to be a real, fine defensive catcher. He has arm strength back there and has the potential to be an All-Star."

 

The Red Sox told Swihart to forget about the left field experiment and focus primarily on catcher heading into spring training 2017. After undergoing season-ending surgery on his left ankle in August, Swihart is expected to be at full health during spring training camp. Is he a realistic candidate to win the starting job though? As mentioned here on MassLive.com yesterday, it seems more plausible Swihart will start 2017 at Triple-A Pawtucket because he has minor league options remaining while both Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez do not.

 

Players who are out of minor league options who don't make the 25-man roster (barring injuries) are designated for assignment. It would be wise for the Red Sox to make depth a priority and keep all three catchers in the organization. But Dombrowski will give Swihart a chance to make the club's Opening Day roster. "Basically we're open-minded to say, 'Let the best person win the job and let's see what combination ends up making us the best club Opening Day,'" Dombrowski said on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio.

 

There's a good chance we could see a different No. 1 catcher come July than at the start of the 2017 season. Leon and Vazquez most likely will make the team out of spring training. Depth is most important when discussing the catcher position for any organization. But Swihart very likely could take over as the starting catcher within a couple months if Leon and Vazquez aren't providing enough offense. Leon's production for Boston in 2016 (.310/.369/.476/.845, 7 homers, 17 doubles, two triples and 35 RBIs, 78 games) perhaps was an aberration and not his new norm. He was just a .238 in 612 minor league games. Vazquez has the ability to be an elite receiver, blocker and thrower. But will he hit enough?

 

The Red Sox might need to go with the best offensive catcher at some point. After all, they might be unable to afford little offensive production from the catcher position with a batting order that doesn't include David Ortiz in 2017.

[harmony]

Couldn't find anything too recent, but here's what soxprospects.com has and it has been recently updated...

 

Physical Description: Athletic build, lean muscle, solid core. Has filed out considerably since signing, especially in his lower half, but still has some room for added bulk without losing athleticism.

 

Hit: Switch hitter with fluid, line-drive stroke from both sides. Plus bat speed and bat control through the zone with loud, consistent contact. Uses whole field. Solid pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, and understanding of the strike zone. Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. Battles. Doesn’t use batting gloves.

 

Power: Strong for his size. More to come as he physically matures. More present power from the right side. Squares balls up with consistency. Doesn’t sell out for power. However, plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs).

 

Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage.

 

Field: Consistent sub 2.0 pop times, typically between 1.8-1.9. Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism. Began getting reps in left field after being optioned back to Pawtucket in April 2016.

 

Run: Average runner, but above-average for catcher. Can go first to third and score from second. Alert on the basepaths with good instincts.

 

Career Notes: Committed to the University of Texas prior to signing. Primarily played shortstop and outfield in high school. Played for Team USA 18-and-Under National Team in 2010. Also played basketball in high school.

 

Summation: Future first-division regular and solid contributor across the board. Potential above-average hit tool and average power potential at a premium defensive position. Athleticism behind the plate immediately stands out. Natural instincts. Confident actions. Elite makeup and strong work ethic. Arguably the best catching prospect in the game right now.

The hometown crowd also includes Red Sox consultant Bill James and his optimistic 2017 projections for Blake Swihart:

Blake Swihart: 110 games, 380 at-bats, 107 hits, 20 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs, 45 RBI, 53 runs, .282 batting average, .347 OBP, .397 slugging, .744 OPS, 52 runs created, 4.9 runs created per 27 outs, 38 walks, 79 strikeouts, 5 stolen bases, 3 caught stealing, 62 stolen base percentage.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/11/boston_red_sox_2017_projection.html

The projected on-base percentage is surprising in light of Swihart's .328 career mark buoyed by a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357.

[User Name]

So projections only make sense when they fall in line with your pre-conceived notions about a player. Gotcha.

[moonslav59]

The projected on-base percentage is surprising in light of Swihart's .328 career mark buoyed by a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357.

 

Again, the kid basically was forced to skip a level and was thrown into the bigs early. He did remarkably well considering that context- something you seem to not feel causes doubt on projections based solely on past numbers.

 

Swihart had a .340 OBP in the minors. I don't think a projection of .347 is out of line.

 

Would I bet on over .330? Probably not, but I think I would bet on the over on SLG (.397+).

[mvp 78]

I never said the sample sizes were large enough, but I responding to the point made that his hot streak was vs weak pitching. The numbers how that his he has faced some tough pitchers and done alright- tiny sample sizes or not.

 

I'm not saying we can base anything on his career MLB sample size, and that's why I researched to show the point made was not an accurate reflection of his sample size as a whole.

 

There is a lot more noise when you make a sample size smaller. For 8/8 - 9/2, he OPS'd 1.046! Prior to that stretch, he OPS'd .608. After that stretch he OPS'd .675.

 

Was it just a hot streak like when JBJ turned into Hank Aaron two years ago? Most likely. Does he have the hit tools to be MLB hitter. Probably, but that doesn't mean he could reasonably be expected to OPS above .800 after never doing that for a full season before and spending the previous season on the DL.

[harmony]

So projections only make sense when they fall in line with your pre-conceived notions about a player. Gotcha.

I entered this discussion about Blake Swihart because I was surprised by his bearish projections from FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and especially ZiPS. I provide projections from all sources I can find.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

[moonslav59]

I entered this discussion about Blake Swihart because I was surprised by his bearish projections from FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and especially ZiPS. I provide projections from all sources I can find.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

 

Scouts raved about this kid 2 years ago.

 

He did well in 2015 after having to skip a level.

 

He had a bad 6 game sample size to start 2016, and later got hurt after being forced to switch positions.

 

I'm not sure why you see it as "bearish" for projections to not adhere strictly his last 2 year WAR and OPS numbers.

[mvp 78]

The hometown crowd also includes Red Sox consultant Bill James and his optimistic 2017 projections for Blake Swihart:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/11/boston_red_sox_2017_projection.html

The projected on-base percentage is surprising in light of Swihart's .328 career mark buoyed by a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357.

 

IDK, the projections seem fair enough to me. It's a projected .727 OPS, which is ok BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MOVING HIM OFF POSITION.

 

Again, he's more valuable at C. The only way he gets moved to 3B is if his yips don't go away or he really struggles behind the plate and becomes a lost cause. A player with his hit tool playing 3B, isn't really a prospect that you refuse to trade the way the Sox have done so far. Moving him off position was a mistake last year and would be a mistake this year too.

[User Name]

IDK, the projections seem fair enough to me. It's a projected .727 OPS, which is ok BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MOVING HIM OFF POSITION.

 

Again, he's more valuable at C. The only way he gets moved to 3B is if his yips don't go away or he really struggles behind the plate and becomes a lost cause. A player with his hit tool playing 3B, isn't really a prospect that you refuse to trade the way the Sox have done so far. Moving him off position was a mistake last year and would be a mistake this year too.

 

I agree with this. In the end, scouts mostly agree that he has the tools to be both an above-average catcher and above-average hitter, why mess with that? He doesn't have nearly as potent a bat as Schwarber does, so there's simply no justification to turn him into a CIF or OF.

[notin]

I agree with this. In the end, scouts mostly agree that he has the tools to be both an above-average catcher and above-average hitter, why mess with that? He doesn't have nearly as potent a bat as Schwarber does, so there's simply no justification to turn him into a CIF or OF.

 

He actually might end up being better than Schwarber.

 

First of all, Kyle Schwarber might be the most overrated young player ever. He's basically Mark Reynolds, but with the disadvantage of always hitting into the shift. Barring massive adjustments (like learning to try to hit the ball the other way, or not trying to rip every potential third strike for extra bases), Schwarber is basically an .830-.850OPS, which makes him Jackie Bradley but without the defense. Can Swihart be an .830-.850OPS guy? I think so...

[a700hitter]

He actually might end up being better than Schwarber.

 

First of all, Kyle Schwarber might be the most overrated young player ever. He's basically Mark Reynolds, but with the disadvantage of always hitting into the shift. Barring massive adjustments (like learning to try to hit the ball the other way, or not trying to rip every potential third strike for extra bases), Schwarber is basically an .830-.850OPS, which makes him Jackie Bradley but without the defense. Can Swihart be an .830-.850OPS guy? I think so...

Schwarber overrated? This is the first time that I heard that. I thought the only question about him was finding him a position.

[mvp 78]

He actually might end up being better than Schwarber.

 

First of all, Kyle Schwarber might be the most overrated young player ever. He's basically Mark Reynolds, but with the disadvantage of always hitting into the shift. Barring massive adjustments (like learning to try to hit the ball the other way, or not trying to rip every potential third strike for extra bases), Schwarber is basically an .830-.850OPS, which makes him Jackie Bradley but without the defense. Can Swihart be an .830-.850OPS guy? I think so...

 

Last year, only two catchers OPS'd above .830.

 

Compare Swihart's minor league OPS (highest was .810) to Schwarber's (above 1.000 each year).

 

I like Swihart, but some of the comments on here are crazy to me.

[a700hitter]

Last year, only two catchers OPS'd above .830.

 

Compare Swihart's minor league OPS (highest was .810) to Schwarber's (above 1.000 each year).

 

I like Swihart, but some of the comments on here are crazy to me.

Schwarber has killed it at every level. That is not close to true about Swihart.

[Fisk]

Scwarber I think will be a well above average hitter, might even have some 900 ops seasons, but you really can't compare him to Swihart. I'm going to guess that schwarber only sees a handful of games at catcher this year and will eventually be a full time left fielder.

 

 

Back to Swihart the right thing to do is leave him at catcher, but if they feel his defense will never cut it I foresee him as a good hitting utility guy who can eventually play all the corners. ( I do think his defense will be fine at catcher ).

[harmony]

Scwarber I think will be a well above average hitter, might even have some 900 ops seasons, but you really can't compare him to Swihart. I'm going to guess that schwarber only sees a handful of games at catcher this year and will eventually be a full time left fielder.

 

Back to Swihart the right thing to do is leave him at catcher, but if they feel his defense will never cut it I foresee him as a good hitting utility guy who can eventually play all the corners. ( I do think his defense will be fine at catcher ).

Kyle Schwarber, who is nearly a year younger than Blake Swihart, could still develop as a catcher but probably won't get the chance because his bat is currently ready to play other positions. Swihart could develop as a catcher but his bat probably is not ready to play at other positions.

[Fisk]

Kyle Schwarber, who is nearly a year younger than Blake Swihart, could still develop as a catcher but probably won't get the chance because his bat is currently ready to play other positions. Swihart could develop as a catcher but his bat probably is not ready to play at other positions.

 

Again I disagree with you, Redsox thought his bat was ready for left field last year. Do not think anyone feels Scwarber will ever be an acceptable catcher and the Cubs are in a win now mode where they are going to want his bat in the lineup, so he will struggle to get the reps at catcher.

[harmony]

Again I disagree with you, Redsox thought his bat was ready for left field last year. Do not think anyone feels Scwarber will ever be an acceptable catcher and the Cubs are in a win now mode where they are going to want his bat in the lineup, so he will struggle to get the reps at catcher.

Blake Swihart's bat would be ready for left field if FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS projected Swihart with Kyle Schwarber's projected 2017 wRC+ of 123, 124 and 121.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=C/OF

 

Instead, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Swihart with 2017 wRC+ of 82, 87 and 77.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[moonslav59]

Broken record.

[Fisk]

Broken record.

 

It's actually becoming obnoxious that a Mariner fan keeps coming on this board to disparage a player he has never seen.

[Fisk]

Blake Swihart's bat would be ready for left field if FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS projected Swihart with Kyle Schwarber's projected 2017 wRC+ of 123, 124 and 121.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=C/OF

 

Instead, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Swihart with 2017 wRC+ of 82, 87 and 77.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

You really have nothing better to do? Weird.