A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Dojji]

Some obsrvations....

 

On the drafts: I know winning lowers your place in the draft, but the draft picks from 2006 to 2010 (5 years), except for Rizzo, were seriously worse than 2003-2005 and 2011.

 

I know Theo took some grief for letting VMart and Beltre walk, but their comp picks really helped stock the farm for Ben & Co.

 

I several Theo moves after the Nomar trade. The Beltre signing was genius. The VMart trade was a steal.

 

I liked the Crisp trade, but he never really developed his bat like I thought he would.

 

No one can fault him for extending Schilling, but his health went down hill that winter.

 

The JD Drew signing was one big long debate.

 

The Smoltz-Penny signings nearly killed me, but I think it was the CC signing that maybe left a sour taste in my mouth near the end of his tenure here.

 

I hated to see him go. No GM ever did what he did with my beloved Sox since I started following them in the early 70's.

 

To see what he has done with the Cubs in such a short time is nothing short of stupendous. The Cubs rise to the top and WS victory cemented the legend.

 

 

I generally feel like focusing too much on any one signing or transaction is an exercise in straining at gnats. You don't get a good idea of the performance of a GM by stressing about any one move. You have to analyze the strength and health of the franchise over his tenure to really get a picture.

 

I will say that Theo's efforts after 07 were focused on maintaining an increasingly precarious balancing act, and the moment that he fell off the tightrope was probably the 2009-2010 offseason. the inability to properly replace Jason Bay, the loss of Jonathan Papelbon without a true replacement, the final demise of Mike Lowell, the beginning of the end of Tim Wakefield, the signing of Scutaro to try to play starting SS which I still maintain was a disproportionately major mistake due to a combination of the delusion of adequacy and the opportunity cost relative to other possible acquisitions at shortstop... I think it's pretty clear that it was that offseason when the franchise took the serious step backward that Theo spent the rest of his tenure trying to recover from

 

That was also IIRC the year that we stopped getting lucky with the minor leaguers and young players we developed from the minors. Middlebrooks, Reddick, Buchholz, and Bard spring to mind as players from which we asked a lot and got very little, and it was the 2010 season where that trend really started biting us in the tail..

[Spudboy]

moon, you just had to put up that screen-chewing, eyeball-overwhelming monstrosity again, didn't you LOL

 

I wore out the battery in my mouse scrolling through it!

[moonslav59]

I generally feel like focusing too much on any one signing or transaction is an exercise in straining at gnats. You don't get a good idea of the performance of a GM by stressing about any one move. You have to analyze the strength and health of the franchise over his tenure to really get a picture.

 

I agree, but I do feel there was a general decline in quality trades and free agent signings from the beginning towards the end. The draft picks fell off a cliff until 2011's stacked draft brought about by 4 comp picks.

 

I will say that Theo's efforts after 07 were focused on maintaining an increasingly precarious balancing act, and the moment that he fell off the tightrope was probably the 2009-2010 offseason. the inability to properly replace Jason Bay, the loss of Jonathan Papelbon without a true replacement, the final demise of Mike Lowell, the beginning of the end of Tim Wakefield, the signing of Scutaro to try to play starting SS which I still maintain was a disproportionately major mistake due to a combination of the delusion of adequacy and the opportunity cost relative to other possible acquisitions at shortstop... I think it's pretty clear that it was that offseason when the franchise took the serious step backward that Theo spent the rest of his tenure trying to recover from.

 

I totally agree. The Beckett-Lowell deal brought us a few more years of high level competition perhaps at the expense of a longer view, but by 2009-2010, we needed to hit on something. The Crawford signing was a major swing and miss. His contract alone was going to adversely affect our outlook for 7 years had the Dodger deal not bailed us out. You are right, though, concentrating on one move (or a handful of moves) does a disservice to the overall Theo evaluation.

 

That was also IIRC the year that we stopped getting lucky with the minor leaguers and young players we developed from the minors. Middlebrooks, Reddick, Buchholz, and Bard spring to mind as players from which we asked a lot and got very little, and it was the 2010 season where that trend really started biting us in the tail.

 

Very true, and the one draft pick that amounted to anything great we had in that 5 year period (Rizzo) was traded in 2010.

 

The team and farm Theo left Ben was not a bad one. The budget was a mess, but once Ben (or Larry L) got the Dodgers to get us off the hook, the framework was still there to keep up a highly competitive team with some further shrewd moves. The 2013 team worked, but the Masterson, Pablo and to some extent the HanRam signing came up woefully short.

 

.

[moonslav59]

I wore out the battery in my mouse scrolling through it!

 

I probably should have left off some mid level moves.

[moonslav59]

Napoli to Rangers for a reported $8.5M/1.

[Spudboy]

Napoli to Rangers for a reported $8.5M/1.

 

Wow. Good move for the Rangers.

 

Poor Nap. The market is not there for him now.

[Dojji]

I wore out the battery in my mouse scrolling through it!

 

I was gonna say, no one with a mobile device would thank Moonslav for posting that.

[moonslav59]

I was gonna say, no one with a mobile device would thank Moonslav for posting that.

 

I'll shorten the list. Here's just the Theo list with the minor to lower/mid-level moves removed...

 

Theo (11/25/02 to 10/21/11):

E Bedard for S Fife & others

Aceves, Okajima II, Jenks, D Wheeler, A Miller II, R Hill, Albers FA

Crawford, VTek III FA

AGon for Rizzo, Kelly & Fuentes

Bogaerts & Iglesias Amateur or Int’l FA

VMart for Masterson & Hagadone

Kotchman for Adam LaRoche

A LaRoche fo Strickland

Smoltz, Penney, Saito, VTek II, Baldelli, N Green, Josh Bard FA

Tazawa FA

Ramon Ramirez for C Crisp

Paul Byrd for Mickey Hall

Jason Bay for Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen & Brandon Moss

B Colon, Timlin, M Lowell & C Schilling FA

Daniel Nava for $1 (FA)

Eric Gagne for K Gabbard, David Murphy & E Beltre

JD Drew, Lugo, Okajima, A Castillo, J Pineiro FA

J Lopez for Adam Stern

Kottares for David Wells

Mirabelli for Cla Meredith & Josh Bard

Willy Mo Pena for B Arroyo

JT Snow, Breslow, Alex Gonzo, R Seanez FA

Coco Crisp & D Riske for A Marte, Shoppach & G Moto

M Loretta for Mirabelli

Beckett & Lowell for HanRam, A Sanchez and others

Doubront amateur FA

Extended Schilling (was hurt that year)

Renteria, M Clement, Wade Miller, D Wells, Olerud FA_______

O Cabrera & Mientkiewicz for Garciaparra

Foulke, Reese, F Castillo FA

Schilling for Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa & B Lyon

Brandon Lyon & Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez & cash

S Williamson for Dumatrait

Ortiz, Mueller, R. Mendoza, Timlin, C Fox FA

Todd Walker for Thigpen and Blanco

 

Theo Draft Picks: (Mike Port drafted Lester & B Moss in 2002.)

2003:

1) D Murphy

1S Matt Murton/ 2S A Alvarez (C Floyd comp)

4) Papelbon

 

2004

(No 1st due to K Foulke signing)

2) Pedroia

 

2005

(Lost our pick for signing Renteria)

For OCab: 1 Ellsbury/2 Lowrie

For DLowe: 1 C Hansen/2 M Bowden

For Pedro: 1 Buchholz/2 J Egan

_________________________________

2006:

1) Jason Place (27th pick)

For Damon: 1) D Bard/1S K Johnson

For Mueller: 1S Caleb Clay/3 A Bates

2) J Masterson

17) J Reddick

 

2007:

(Lost our pick for signing J Lugo.)

For Gonzo: 1S N Hagadone

For Foulke: 1S Ryan Dent

5) Middlebrooks

6) A Rizzo

 

2008:

1) Casey Kelly (30)

For Gagne: 1S Bryan Price

For Morris: 3 S Fife

9) C Vazquez

 

2009:

1) Reymond Fuentes (28)

2) Alex Wilson

 

2010:

(Lost our first for signing Lackey)

For B Wagner: 1 K Vitek (20)/A Ranaudo (39)

For J Bay: 1 B Brentz (36)/2 Workman

______________________________________

 

2011 (A great draft aided by comp picks)

For VMart: 1 Barnes (19)/Owens (36)

For Beltre: 1 Swihart (26)/ JBJ (40)

5) M Betts (172)

9) T Shaw

 

International Signings:

04-05: Doubront

05-06: Y Navarro, Chih-Hsien Chiang

06-07: Dice K, Okajima, S Pimental, O tejada, E Beltre

07-08: R Mendea

08-09: Tazawa, W Cueves, Oscar Perez

09-10: X Bogaerts, J Iglesias, F Montas

10-11: J Aro, A. Ibarra, Juan Carlos Linares

Edited February 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Wow. Good move for the Rangers.

 

Poor Nap. The market is not there for him now.

 

Poor Nap.

 

Good one!

 

Must be nice to have to settle on just $8.5M!

 

I get your point though. The market just fell off a cliff for big slugger 1B/DH types.

 

[mvp 78]

Why does anyone care about the Penny/Smoltz signings? Low risk/low reward types aren't worth wringing your hands over.

[moonslav59]

Why does anyone care about the Penny/Smoltz signings? Low risk/low reward types aren't worth wringing your hands over.

 

We needed a solid #2-3 type starter. We tried for settle on a not-so-solid 3-4 type. Instead we spent over $10M in 2009 dollars to get two "half pitchers" in hopes one would do well or Penny would "bridge" us to when Smoltz got healthy.

 

Together, they were not minor signings. $11M was big money back then.

 

They sucked. It didn't work. One can say, "nice try", but IMO those deals paled in comparison to pre-Nomar trade deals.

 

Penny 7-8 5.61 (1.534 WHIP in 133 IP/24)

Smoltz 2-5 8.33 (1.700 WHIP in 40 IP/8GS)

 

They gave us the 32 games started we needed, but the performance level was horrendous.

 

The Matt Clement signing was a "good try". If he hadn't got seriously injured, he might have worked out well. It's hard to fault Theo for that one, but sadly GMs are mostly judged on post-move performance, injury or no injury.

 

We spent almost $26M in 2005-2007 dollars on Matt, and got this:

 

18-11 5.09 (1.463) 44 GS (256 IP on a 3 year deal)

 

I'm not trying to be critical of Theo's overall body of work. Again, I think he's the best GM in my lifetime. I'm just pointing out my opinion that he slumped towards the end of his tenure in Boston (except for that 2011 draft).

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[Eddy Ballgame]

Why does anyone care about the Penny/Smoltz signings? Low risk/low reward types aren't worth wringing your hands over.

 

Even if a guy like Smoltz never throws a pitch for them, he's a human encyclopedia of baseball knowledge. It can't possibly hurt to have a guy like that around in spring training. As you mention, low risk/high reward signings really shouldn't be scrutinized.

[Eddy Ballgame]

We needed a solid #2-3 type starter. We tried for settle on a not-so-solid 3-4 type. Instead we spent over $10M in 2009 dollars to get two "half pitchers" in hopes one would do well or Penny would "bridge" us to when Smoltz got healthy.

 

Together, they were not minor signings. $11M was big money back then.

 

They sucked. It didn't work. One can say, "nice try", but IMO those deals paled in comparison to pre-Nomar trade deals.

 

Penny 7-8 5.61 (1.534 WHIP in 133 IP/24)

Smoltz 2-5 8.33 (1.700 WHIP in 40 IP/8GS)

 

They gave us the 32 games started we needed, but the performance level was horrendous.

 

The Matt Clement signing was a "good try". If he hadn't got seriously injured, he might have worked out well. It's hard to fault Theo for that one, but sadly GMs are mostly judged on post-move performance, injury or no injury.

 

We spent almost $26M in 2005-2007 dollars on Matt, and got this:

 

18-11 5.09 (1.463) 44 GS (256 IP on a 3 year deal)

 

I'm not trying to be critical of Theo's overall body of work. Again, I think he's the best GM in my lifetime. I'm just pointing out my opinion that he slumped towards the end of his tenure in Boston (except for that 2011 draft).

 

 

Smoltz & Penny were depth signings on 1 year deals. They had Beckett/Lester/Dice K/Buchholz/Wakefield, so I doubt that they were going to go big on a starting pitcher. It's certainly debatable whether or not they "needed" a "2 or 3."

[mvp 78]

We needed a solid #2-3 type starter. We tried for settle on a not-so-solid 3-4 type. Instead we spent over $10M in 2009 dollars to get two "half pitchers" in hopes one would do well or Penny would "bridge" us to when Smoltz got healthy.

 

Together, they were not minor signings. $11M was big money back then.

 

They sucked. It didn't work. One can say, "nice try", but IMO those deals paled in comparison to pre-Nomar trade deals.

 

Penny 7-8 5.61 (1.534 WHIP in 133 IP/24)

Smoltz 2-5 8.33 (1.700 WHIP in 40 IP/8GS)

 

They gave us the 32 games started we needed, but the performance level was horrendous.

 

The Matt Clement signing was a "good try". If he hadn't got seriously injured, he might have worked out well. It's hard to fault Theo for that one, but sadly GMs are mostly judged on post-move performance, injury or no injury.

 

We spent almost $26M in 2005-2007 dollars on Matt, and got this:

 

18-11 5.09 (1.463) 44 GS (256 IP on a 3 year deal)

 

I'm not trying to be critical of Theo's overall body of work. Again, I think he's the best GM in my lifetime. I'm just pointing out my opinion that he slumped towards the end of his tenure in Boston (except for that 2011 draft).

 

 

The top of the rotation was Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K. In 2009, those guys were good enough that you shouldn't have needed a #2. Penny and Smoltz were 5/6's at best. I don't think anyone really expected Penny or Smoltz to be anything more than roster filler. This was a team that almost made the WS in 2008. It's not like they were a bunch of pieces away.

 

edit: I meant Lester, not Lackey. Sorry.

Edited February 8, 2017 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

Smoltz & Penny were depth signings on 1 year deals. They had Beckett/Lester/Dice K/Buchholz/Wakefield, so I doubt that they were going to go big on a starting pitcher. It's certainly debatable whether or not they "needed" a "2 or 3."

 

You don't spend $11M in 2009 money on a 6th and 7th starter.

 

Wake was 42.

 

Buch was coming off a 15 start 6.75 season.

 

Dice-K had a big 2008 season, but his peripherals were not that good.

 

We had Lester and Beckett.

 

I think the hope was Penny-Smoltz could combine to give us solid 3 starter numbers...maybe 4 behind Dice-K.

 

As it turned out, Beckett improved from 2008 to 2009, Lester gave us a solid year, but Dice-K, Buch and Wake all pitched poorer or missed too much time:

 

Wake 4.58 in 21 GS

Buch 4.21 in 16 GS

Dice 5.76 in 12 GS

 

We needed a solid number 3 that year, and Penny & Smoltz failed to give us even solid #5 numbers combined.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

The top of the rotation was Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K. In 2009, those guys were good enough that you shouldn't have needed a #2. Penny and Smoltz were 5/6's at best. I don't think anyone really expected Penny or Smoltz to be anything more than roster filler. This was a team that almost made the WS in 2008. It's not like they were a bunch of pieces away.

 

Lackey wasn't there yet, but even so, they weren't looking for a top of the rotation guy that off season. That team won 95 games, so tough to fault Theo's off season moves.

[mvp 78]

DiceK was a 2.6 WAR player in 2008. He wasn't garbage. He was a good #3.

[mvp 78]

Lackey wasn't there yet, but even so, they weren't looking for a top of the rotation guy that off season. That team won 95 games, so tough to fault Theo's off season moves.

 

I said "Lackey" but meant "Lester."

[Eddy Ballgame]

DiceK was a 2.6 WAR player in 2008. He wasn't garbage. He was a good #3.

 

The top 4 ranked F/A starters that off season were Sabbathia/Burnett/D Lowe & Dempster. That was definitely not the off season to go after a top of the rotation guy, especially when they had Buchholz & Lester coming on. I don't think they put much stock in Buchholz' "stats" in '08. He was a young pitcher with terrific stuff.

[mvp 78]

I liked Dempster, but I don't think his stuff would have translated very well to the AL East. His 2008 was an abberation.

 

Burnett pitched decently in 2009, but fell off a cliff until landing in the NL again.

 

Sabbathia's contract was fine. The Yankees should have just let him opt out and go elsewhere after 2011.

[moonslav59]

DiceK was a 2.6 WAR player in 2008. He wasn't garbage. He was a good #3.

 

Agreed.

 

I said I felt they needed a number 2, but I'm always saying (until now) we need a 1 or two, but I said they were looking for a "solid #3-4.

[moonslav59]

Notes from soxprospects.com...

 

Christopher Acosta has reported to the Red Sox Dominican Academy...a former top-20 prospect in the SoxProspects.com rankings, did not pitch last season after being placed on the restricted list in June. It is unclear what the plan will be for Acosta going forward... According to a report last June by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, Acosta got in trouble during extended spring training in Fort Myers and left Florida for the Dominican without permission, resulting in the team placing him on the restricted list—in other words, suspending him. After returning to the Dominican, he did not report to the Dominican Academy as directed, and he missed the rest of the 2016 season.

 

Acosta was one of the top prospects in the 2014 international free agent class, signing with the Red Sox for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic during the same signing period as Anderson Espinoza and, much later, Yoan Moncada. MLB.com ranked him as the top pitcher in that class and sixth-best prospect overall, while Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-overall prospect in the class (and behind Espinoza).

 

Before the Red Sox suspended Acosta, he reached as high as number 18 in the SoxProspects.com rankings...hopefully in Spring Training [he'll show] the once-projectable three-pitch mix that made him look like a potential mid-to-back-rotation starter down the line. However, after a year off, it is unclear what condition he will be in returning to the mound.

[Fisk]

Notes from soxprospects.com...

 

Christopher Acosta has reported to the Red Sox Dominican Academy...a former top-20 prospect in the SoxProspects.com rankings, did not pitch last season after being placed on the restricted list in June. It is unclear what the plan will be for Acosta going forward... According to a report last June by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, Acosta got in trouble during extended spring training in Fort Myers and left Florida for the Dominican without permission, resulting in the team placing him on the restricted list—in other words, suspending him. After returning to the Dominican, he did not report to the Dominican Academy as directed, and he missed the rest of the 2016 season.

 

Acosta was one of the top prospects in the 2014 international free agent class, signing with the Red Sox for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic during the same signing period as Anderson Espinoza and, much later, Yoan Moncada. MLB.com ranked him as the top pitcher in that class and sixth-best prospect overall, while Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-overall prospect in the class (and behind Espinoza).

 

Before the Red Sox suspended Acosta, he reached as high as number 18 in the SoxProspects.com rankings...hopefully in Spring Training [he'll show] the once-projectable three-pitch mix that made him look like a potential mid-to-back-rotation starter down the line. However, after a year off, it is unclear what condition he will be in returning to the mound.

 

Hopefully he stays out of trouble, we need another good pitching prospect.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully he stays out of trouble, we need another good pitching prospect.

 

He made it up to #18 as a very young pitcher, so he must have some hope.

[mvp 78]

Can't believe he came back. Weird situation and no one has dug very deap into the story.

[moonslav59]

Can't believe he came back. Weird situation and no one has dug very deap into the story.

 

Maybe someone dug deep, but couldn't find the answer to what really happened.

 

It must have been something serious.

 

You have to wonder about this kid's attitude, if he just refused to report to duty as stepping stone to making it to the bigs. Maybe he felt he was wronged.

[User Name]

I'll ask around.

[moonslav59]

An optimistic view of out rotation would be to hope some of these half season splits can be repeated in 2017 for a full season.

 

Best half splits of 2017 by starters that are now with the Sox:

 

8-7 2.47 Pomeranz (1st half)

11-2 2.62 Porcello (2nd)

10-5 2.68 Wright (1st)

 

2-4 3.24 Rodriguez (2nd)

3-7 3.28 C Sale (2nd)

14-3 3.38 C Sale (1st)

8-3 3.58 Price (1st)

11-2 3.66 Porcello (1st)

 

9-6 4.34 Price (2nd)

 

[moonslav59]

An optimistic view of out rotation would be to hope some of these half season splits can be repeated in 2017 for a full season.

 

Best half splits of 2017 by starters that are now with the Sox:

 

8-7 2.47 Pomeranz (1st half)

11-2 2.62 Porcello (2nd)

10-5 2.68 Wright (1st)

 

2-4 3.24 Rodriguez (2nd)

3-7 3.28 C Sale (2nd)

14-3 3.38 C Sale (1st)

8-3 3.58 Price (1st)

11-2 3.66 Porcello (1st)

 

9-6 4.34 Price (2nd)

 

The interesting thing I see in this list is that 3 of the top 4 half season samples are from our 4-5-6 starters!

[mvp 78]

I'll ask around.

 

If SFF was still here, he could just ask LL directly.