A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Here's a rough look at our future budget issues:

 

After 2017:

We lose Young ($6.5M), Moreland ($5.5M) and Abad (~$2M). $14M total.

Outlook: Kimbrel & Sale's options will raise his luxury number by about $6M and arb raises could eat all of this amount up. We could possibly get by without adding any costly pieces and using Devers and Travis to replace Young and Moreland. That would be helpful to have the tax rate very low for the following season. The arb raises might make that impossible.

 

After 2018:

We lose or have to extend: Sale ($11.5M), Kimbrel ($12M), Pomeranz ($~$7M last arb), Kelly (~$4M last arb), R Ross ($3.5M last arb). (HanRam will probably reach the vested option criteria for 2018.) $38M Total

Outlook: Replacing Kelly and Ross might come from within the system, but replacing Sale and Pom will have to probably come from extension(s), free agency or trade. Maybe Groome could replace Pom by 2019, but 2020 is a more likely target date. Arb raises (some final year arbs which are usually big raises) will be costly. Extending Sale will probably be a top priority. I can't see us staying under the luxury limit, but if it is our first or second year over, and we can stay below the $30M over mark, we should be fine.

 

After 2019 is probably too far away to have a true sense of where our finances will be, but Pablo & HanRam will be off the books, and hopefully Devers and Travis will fill their roles well. Replacing or extending Porcello, Bogey & Thornburg will be costly.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a rough look at our future budget issues:

 

After 2017:

We lose Young ($6.5M), Moreland ($5.5M) and Abad (~$2M). $14M total.

Outlook: Kimbrel & Sale's options will raise his luxury number by about $6M and arb raises could eat all of this amount up. We could possibly get by without adding any costly pieces and using Devers and Travis to replace Young and Moreland. That would be helpful to have the tax rate very low for the following season. The arb raises might make that impossible.

 

After 2018:

We lose or have to extend: Sale ($11.5M), Kimbrel ($12M), Pomeranz ($~$7M last arb), Kelly (~$4M last arb), R Ross ($3.5M last arb). (HanRam will probably reach the vested option criteria for 2018.) $38M Total

Outlook: Replacing Kelly and Ross might come from within the system, but replacing Sale and Pom will have to probably come from extension(s), free agency or trade. Maybe Groome could replace Pom by 2019, but 2020 is a more likely target date. Arb raises (some final year arbs which are usually big raises) will be costly. Extending Sale will probably be a top priority. I can't see us staying under the luxury limit, but if it is our first or second year over, and we can stay below the $30M over mark, we should be fine.

 

After 2019 is probably too far away to have a true sense of where our finances will be, but Pablo & HanRam will be off the books, and hopefully Devers and Travis will fill their roles well. Replacing or extending Porcello, Bogey & Thornburg will be costly.

 

 

We have an option on Sale for 2019.

[moonslav59]

We have an option on Sale for 2019.

 

Yes, I missed that!

[a700hitter]

Yes and no.

 

On the free agent market, Price alone cost in excess of $30mill. Its not very likely tje cost of one goes down much in the immediate future. But free agency is only one method of getting an ace. And really, not even the best one.

 

If the Sox can keep the farm even semi-respectable, a trade for an ace could procure one for far less. And could do so without all the unnecessary baggage in terms of years and bloated salary it takes to get an ace....

Trading prospects is also a cost.

[moonslav59]

2016 Sox fielding rankings by position on The Fielding Bible (10 pts for 1st place vote, 9 for second... and 12 voting members):

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally.asp

 

1B:

1) Rizzo 113

13) HanRam 2

 

2B:

1) Pedey 114

 

3B:

1) Arenado 119

(No Sox players got a vote)

 

SS:

1) Simmons 106

(No Sox players got a vote)

 

LF:

1) Marte 119

T14) Holt 2

 

CF:

1) Pillar 114

4) JBJ 82

 

RF:

1) Betts 116

 

C:

1) Posey 120

T20) Leon 3

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Trading prospects is also a cost.

 

True enough, but Sale and Kimbrel only costs us about $20M on the luxury budget this year.

[Nick]

Yes, I missed that!

 

Cot's has us under the limit by $16.5M now. It's very possible any pick up at trade deadline will only cost us for 2017. Thus we'll have close to $30M to pay for arbitration raises. We can have the team come back in tact, except for the 3 free agents. The limit will increase by $9M in 2019.

 

I would hope an internal candidate can fill the closer role by then and save the $12M paid to Kimbrel the previous year. First critical decision maybe what to do with Pom? I wouldn't be quick to dismiss him, Porcello/Sale FA looms in a year along with Xander.

[moonslav59]

Cot's has us under the limit by $16.5M now.

 

I trust my $12M number more. I used Ale Speier's numbers, and he explained why the numbers aren't always exactly the average annual salary. It has to do with contracts that begin very small and get very large.

 

Take Sale's numbers. Cots has him at $6.5M for 2017 (AVV) and that is his average salary, but Spier has him at $6.77M due to how the money was structured.

 

I trust Spier, because I read an article by him that explained how the numbers may be adjusted.

 

Speier had the benefits at $13.5M not $13M as cots has it.

[Nick]

2016 Sox fielding rankings by position on The Fielding Bible (10 pts for 1st place vote, 9 for second... and 12 voting members):

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally.asp

 

1B:

1) Rizzo 113

13) HanRam 2

 

2B:

1) Pedey 114

 

3B:

1) Arenado 119

(No Sox players got a vote)

 

SS:

1) Simmons 106

(No Sox players got a vote)

 

LF:

1) Marte 119

T14) Holt 2

 

CF:

1) Pillar 114

4) JBJ 82

 

RF:

1) Betts 116

 

C:

1) Posey 120

T20) Leon 3

 

 

 

 

 

This is why I place Xander my #5 pick among Porcello, Sale, Betts and Bradley Jr......Boras will be looking for $30M for Xander. He's not worth that much.

[User Name]

He is, because positional scarcity in a vacuum and for the Boston Red Sox specifically, is a thing. The most expendable member of the young core is actually JBJ, and that's saying a lot because of how valuable he is.

[moonslav59]

This is why I place Xander my #5 pick among Porcello, Sale, Betts and Bradley Jr......Boras will be looking for $30M for Xander. He's not worth that much.

 

He might be behind Beni after this season.

[moonslav59]

He is, because positional scarcity in a vacuum and for the Boston Red Sox specifically, is a thing. The most expendable member of the young core is actually JBJ, and that's saying a lot because of how valuable he is.

 

I think Bogey is ahead of JBJ too right now, but since JBJ has one more year of team control, I might flip the two.

[Nick]

Now if he goes out and smacks 30 home runs.....but he'll never be more than a serviceable shortstop defensively.

 

JBJ is an elite center fielder who has shown power stroke....and I don't think he'll cost us $30M.....

Edited January 27, 2017 by Nick

[User Name]

A serviceable SS who hits like an above-average 1B (He would have been eleventh amongst 1B in wOBA) is crazy valuable, and there's still room for growth.

[Nick]

A serviceable SS who hits like an above-average 1B (He would have been eleventh amongst 1B in wOBA) is crazy valuable, and there's still room for growth.

 

Oh, I get it. But we'll have to make choices as to who stays and who goes. I consider SS to be a defensive position first. But thats' just me.

 

Maybe we can find a way to sign all five, Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts. That would make me do back flips. I would venture to guess majority of people here would take Xander over signing Bradley Jr if it comes to that.

 

But I like having an elite outfield. I think Porcello/Sale is a must. I like having strong starting rotation.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Maybe we can find a way to sign all five, Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts. That would make me do back flips. I would venture to guess majority of people here would take Xander over signing Bradley Jr if it comes to that.

 

Let's say Price does NOT opt out- that's $30M right there.

 

$30M for Sale

$27M for Porcello

$30M for Betts

$25M for Bogey

$23M for JBJ

 

That's $165M for just 6 players! Add Pedey's $13.75M and the player benefit payment, we're up to about $193M with 33 more roster spots to fill and pay for. Let's say 20 of them are at min wage; that's about $12M. Now, we're at $205M with 13 players to pay more than minimum wage. To stay under the $30M over threshold of the luxury limit where serious penalties kick in, we'd have to pay them an average of about $2M each. That's not going to happen, so it's either go way over the limit or let one or two of these guys go (gaining a draft pick or two).

 

Others to consider (last year of control):

 

2018

Pomeranz

Kelly

Ross

 

2019

Thornburg

Holt

 

2020

Wright

C Smith

Vazquez

Leon

 

2021

ERod

Swihart

 

Maybe we can have 25 players making minimum wage (not 20) and have to pay 8 guys more, but I think the $30M over-the-threshold limit is pretty much a "hard cap".

 

 

[moonslav59]

A serviceable SS who hits like an above-average 1B (He would have been eleventh amongst 1B in wOBA) is crazy valuable, and there's still room for growth.

 

And one could call 2016 an "off year" for Bogey, even though it was his best xOBA and wRC+ (113 which would place about 14th among 1Bman).

 

If he can bring his defense back up to the 2015 level or higher and improve his offense, Bogey's value is going to be through the roof.

 

fangraphs has his value measured as such:

 

2015: $34.0M

2016: $37.9M

 

FYI: JBJ's

 

2015: $19.5M

2016: $38.8M

[Nick]

Maybe we can find a way to sign all five, Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts. That would make me do back flips. I would venture to guess majority of people here would take Xander over signing Bradley Jr if it comes to that.

 

Let's say Price does NOT opt out- that's $30M right there.

 

$30M for Sale

$27M for Porcello

$30M for Betts

$25M for Bogey

$23M for JBJ

 

That's $165M for just 6 players! Add Pedey's $13.75M and the player benefit payment, we're up to about $193M with 33 more roster spots to fill and pay for. Let's say 20 of them are at min wage; that's about $12M. Now, we're at $205M with 13 players to pay more than minimum wage. To stay under the $30M over threshold of the luxury limit where serious penalties kick in, we'd have to pay them an average of about $2M each. That's not going to happen, so it's either go way over the limit or let one or two of these guys go (gaining a draft pick or two).

 

Others to consider (last year of control):

 

2018

Pomeranz

Kelly

Ross

 

2019

Thornburg

Holt

 

2020

Wright

C Smith

Vazquez

Leon

 

2021

ERod

Swihart

 

Maybe we can have 25 players making minimum wage (not 20) and have to pay 8 guys more, but I think the $30M over-the-threshold limit is pretty much a "hard cap".

 

 

 

I think what all this says is WE ARE STACKED RIGHT NOW. Better take advantage of it.

[mvp 78]

And one could call 2016 an "off year" for Bogey, even though it was his best xOBA and wRC+ (113 which would place about 14th among 1Bman).

 

If he can bring his defense back up to the 2015 level or higher and improve his offense, Bogey's value is going to be through the roof.

 

fangraphs has his value measured as such:

 

2015: $34.0M

2016: $37.9M

 

FYI: JBJ's

 

2015: $19.5M

2016: $38.8M

 

How could it possibly be an "off year" when he had career highs for HR, R, RBI, WAR, SB, etc.?

[moonslav59]

Speaking of value as determined by fangraphs, here's how our players placed last year (146 qualifying players):

 

3) Betts $62.3M

19) Pedey $41.9M

26) JBJ $38.8M

30) Bogey $37.9M

36) Ortiz $35.4M

73) HanRam $20.7M

108) Shaw $11.9M

 

Pitching (142 pitchers with 100+ IP)

6) Porcello $43.8M

8) C Sale $41.5M

13) Price $36.9M

39) Pomeranz $23.9M

49) Wright $22.1M

100) ERod $9.6M

 

RP'ers (176 with 40+ IP)

12) Thornburg $16.0M

27) Ziegler $10.3M

31) Kimbrel $9.8M

81) Uehara $4.8M

96) Barnes $3.5M

105) Hembree $2.7M

115) Abad $2.1M

127) Tazawa $1.2M

 

[moonslav59]

How could it possibly be an "off year" when he had career highs for HR, R, RBI, WAR, SB, etc.?

 

I said "one could call it..." and put off year in quotes to emphasize the iffiness of the statement, but I do think last year could have been much better but wasn't due to his defensive slump and how he dropped off at the end of the year.

 

I guess I worded it wrongly.

[Nick]

Speaking of value as determined by fangraphs, here's how our players placed last year (146 qualifying players):

 

3) Betts $62.3M

19) Pedey $41.9M

26) JBJ $38.8M

30) Bogey $37.9M

36) Ortiz $35.4M

73) HanRam $20.7M

108) Shaw $11.9M

 

Pitching (142 pitchers with 100+ IP)

6) Porcello $43.8M

8) C Sale $41.5M

13) Price $36.9M

39) Pomeranz $23.9M

49) Wright $22.1M

100) ERod $9.6M

 

RP'ers (176 with 40+ IP)

12) Thornburg $16.0M

27) Ziegler $10.3M

31) Kimbrel $9.8M

81) Uehara $4.8M

96) Barnes $3.5M

105) Hembree $2.7M

115) Abad $2.1M

127) Tazawa $1.2M

 

 

there you have it....Porcello, Sale in top 10. Price at #13, locked up for 6 more yrs (I'd say 90% chance he stays). 4 position players in top 30. I don't know how we'll do it, but keep them all.

 

Excited to see what we got in Thornburg.

[Nick]

ESPN's Top 20 Prospects (Keith Law)....Sox come in at #1, #11 and #20, traded away #7 and #17

 

1.Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox

2.Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves

3.Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets

4.Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees

5.J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

6.Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

7.Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox

8.Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals

9.Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

10.Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

11.Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

12.Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs

13.Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox

14.Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

15.Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

16.Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

17.Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox

18.Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Guardians

19.Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies

20.Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox

[moonslav59]

there you have it....Porcello, Sale in top 10. Price at #13, locked up for 6 more yrs (I'd say 90% chance he stays). 4 position players in top 30. I don't know how we'll do it, but keep them all.

 

Excited to see what we got in Thornburg.

 

4 TOP 30 EVERYDAY PLAYERS!

3 TOP 13 SP'ERS and 5 TOP 50 SP'ERS!

2 TOP 30 RP'ERS.

 

All but Pom are controlled for 3 or more years. Yup, that's pretty solid!

 

Then there are supporting players like HanRam, ERod, Beni, Smith, Kelly...

[Nick]

Keith Law writes that Groome has “one of the best curveballs I’ve ever seen from a high schooler,” though he suspects the Red Sox will ask him to work on his changeup in A-ball this year. Here’s Law’s hammer:

 

His arm works well, and he has the size to work downhill with his fastball, one of the aspects lacking from his game at the moment. He’s still relatively unpolished, and probably four years away from the majors, so there’s a higher flameout or injury risk -- maybe 30 percent or so -- than there is for other arms in this region of the rankings. I’ll still take a big lefty with an out pitch curveball and potential for a grade 55 or better fastball any day of the week.

[moonslav59]

ESPN's Top 20 Prospects....Sox come in at #1, #11 and #20, traded away #7 and #17

 

1.Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox

2.Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves

3.Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets

4.Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees

5.J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

6.Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

7.Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox

8.Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals

9.Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

10.Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

11.Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

12.Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs

13.Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox

14.Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

15.Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

16.Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

17.Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox

18.Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Guardians

19.Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies

20.Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox

 

Pretty impressive after a prospect dump like we just had!

 

Wow, Moncada fell a long way based on a tiny ML sample size.

[moonslav59]

Kopech getting some serious loving...

[Nick]

Keith Law calls Devers the forgotten man of the farm system, but says that he’s “a true third baseman with an exceptional ability to hit and huge raw power he’s just beginning to display in games.” Remember that David Ortiz guy? Well, we might not be without a big lefty bat for long, Law writes:

 

And there is big power to come -- Devers can already put the ball out to dead center on a line, so it’s a matter of some physical maturity and maintaining that hard-contact approach rather than becoming too pull-oriented. [...] Moving Moncada clears a path for Devers to take over at the hot corner in Fenway sometime in late 2018. Even average defense at third would make him an All-Star given how much I expect him to hit for power.

[Nick]

With NO EVIDENCE, I have high hopes for Dalbec......pure power guy.

 

Can he DH and come in as a closer? We can all dream, right?

[Nick]

Interesting that #2-#4 are all shortstops.

 

There's glut of good SS right now. No one is going to pay $30M unless there's power....30 HR's.