A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

You are going to replace Price with an ace, a closer and another need for $30 million/year? Good luck.

 

I said "go a long way towards..." not fully replacing.

 

Try reading all my words. It wasn't a long sentence or complex concept.

 

Plus, my statement was in the context of the fact that the $30M would be added to the amount mentioned in an earlier post on how much we can go over the luxury limit without major penalties, which is another $30M due to the fact that we will (should) have reset the luxury tax by then. That's about $60M (not counting the savings from Pablo's departure).

 

[moonslav59]

We won't necessarily need to spend big money on a closer when and if Kimbrel leaves. They could develop one from the farm, one could emerge from the current staff at the time, they could trade for a young inexpensive reliever who isn't a closer yet. There are so many different possibilities, which is why it's not something that can be "projected." Every year old closers fade and new ones develop. It's just impossible to predict.

 

Agreed, and we could see Smith (under control through 2020) or Hembree (through 2021) rise to closer status by then.

 

I don't see much of a chance a current prospect will be ready to assume the closer role by 2019, but stranger things have happened, like Uehara going from our 3rd or 4th closer on the depth chart to the best in MLB within a few short months.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I said "go a long way towards..." not fully replacing.

 

Try reading all my words. It wasn't a long sentence or complex concept.

 

Plus, my statement was in the context of the fact that the $30M would be added to the amount mentioned in an earlier post on how much we can go over the luxury limit without major penalties, which is another $30M due to the fact that we will (should) have reset the luxury tax by then. That's about $60M (not counting the savings from Pablo's departure).

 

 

If Groome develops into an ace and we have another young kid emerge as a closer, they'll have about 28 million left over for the "other need." Not sure why this is so impossible.

[Nick]

I'd say Kelly, Thornburg and C Smith can become a formidable bullpen arms, or not.

 

I'm anxious to see if Kelly can continue his late season success. Apparently he 'developed' a slider to go with his fastball and curve in September. Control/location is his achilles heel.

 

Never seen C Smith and Thornburg. I'm looking foward to it.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

That's so weird! I just looked again and it says $12.0M (which is his 2017 salary).

 

Cot's provides 2 separate sheets now, one for actual salaries and one for tax purposes. There are 2 separate click lines in the top left corner of the screen.

[Dojji]

If Groome develops into an ace and we have another young kid emerge as a closer, they'll have about 28 million left over for the "other need." Not sure why this is so impossible.

 

You mean other than the fact that that's an "if" so large it qualifies as the worlds 8th continent?

[mvp 78]

You mean other than the fact that that's an "if" so large it qualifies as the worlds 8th continent?

 

That's probably overstating it a little. This "if" is more likely the size of real Maine (aka Kittery through Ogunquit).

[moonslav59]

If Groome develops into an ace and we have another young kid emerge as a closer, they'll have about 28 million left over for the "other need." Not sure why this is so impossible.

 

Yes, Groome could be just what we need at just the right time. I suppose he could end up being our closer, but I would not think that is a goal right now.

[moonslav59]

I'd say Kelly, Thornburg and C Smith can become a formidable bullpen arms, or not.

 

I'm anxious to see if Kelly can continue his late season success. Apparently he 'developed' a slider to go with his fastball and curve in September. Control/location is his achilles heel.

 

Never seen C Smith and Thornburg. I'm looking foward to it.

 

I think Kelly has a good chance at advancing up the RP'er ladder, but he's only under team control through 2019.

[moonslav59]

Cot's provides 2 separate sheets now, one for actual salaries and one for tax purposes. There are 2 separate click lines in the top left corner of the screen.

 

Thanks. I never saw that before.

 

There are also adjustments needed to the AAV based on signing bonuses and the salary disparity between the lowest year and the average salary. Alex Speier provides the explanation, but I cannot find the link. I used his numbers, which adjust accordingly.

[Eddy Ballgame]

You mean other than the fact that that's an "if" so large it qualifies as the worlds 8th continent?

 

You're missing the point. .700 hitter made it seem like it was "impossible" to fill 3 needs with 30 million. Would anyone be "surprised" if Groome develops into an ace? Would anyone be "surprised" if the Sox develop a closer from within?

[Nick]

You're missing the point. .700 hitter made it seem like it was "impossible" to fill 3 needs with 30 million. Would anyone be "surprised" if Groome develops into an ace? Would anyone be "surprised" if the Sox develop a closer from within?

 

Exactly.....sometimes we'll have to take a risk. Obviously we all want to make decision based on 'no brainer' scenario. But that may not be available. For example, it's obvious that Sox want to fill 1B with Travis. That's why they picked up Moreland on 1 year deal. There's only so much money to go around. But there's no guaranty Travis will be up to task. We hope, but it's not a sure thing.

 

I would bet that Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts will not be teammates in 2021. We'll have to pick and choose.

[moonslav59]

You're missing the point. .700 hitter made it seem like it was "impossible" to fill 3 needs with 30 million. Would anyone be "surprised" if Groome develops into an ace? Would anyone be "surprised" if the Sox develop a closer from within?

 

I'm not missing the point, because, as usual, 700 was responding to a position I did not state. The context was within the framework of being able to go over the luxury limit by up to $30M without major penalties, since we will have reset the tax after this year.

 

That "extra" 30M will "go a long way" to helping fill those vacant slots. In total, it would be $60M. By itself, the $30M contract of price cannot replace an ace, a closer and hanRam. I agree with that, but I never said what he implied I said.

Edited January 26, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Exactly.....sometimes we'll have to take a risk. Obviously we all want to make decision based on 'no brainer' scenario. But that may not be available. For example, it's obvious that Sox want to fill 1B with Travis. That's why they picked up Moreland on 1 year deal. There's only so much money to go around. But there's no guaranty Travis will be up to task. We hope, but it's not a sure thing.

 

I would bet that Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts will not be teammates in 2021. We'll have to pick and choose.

 

I think 4 of the 5 could be, and all 5 could be, if Price opts out (unlikely).

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not missing the point, because, as usual, 700 was responding to a position I did not state. The context was within the framework of being able to go over the luxury limit by up to $30M without major penalties, since we will have reset the tax after this year.

 

That "extra" 30M will "go a long way" to helping fill those vacant slots. In total, it would be $60M. By itself, the $30M contract of price cannot replace an ace, a closer and hanRam. I agree with that, but I never said what he implied I said.

 

That response was to Doji. See above.

[a700hitter]

I said "go a long way towards..." not fully replacing.

 

Try reading all my words. It wasn't a long sentence or complex concept.

 

Plus, my statement was in the context of the fact that the $30M would be added to the amount mentioned in an earlier post on how much we can go over the luxury limit without major penalties, which is another $30M due to the fact that we will (should) have reset the luxury tax by then. That's about $60M (not counting the savings from Pablo's departure).

 

I read your words, and i disagree with them. You referred to Price and his $30 million annual salary without any other context in the post. I don't think that $30 will go a long way toward replacing an ace starter, a closer and another need. I think you would be lucky to get an ace starter for the $30 million, never mind two other needs.

[a700hitter]

I'm not missing the point, because, as usual, 700 was responding to a position I did not state. The context was within the framework of being able to go over the luxury limit by up to $30M without major penalties, since we will have reset the tax after this year.

 

That "extra" 30M will "go a long way" to helping fill those vacant slots. In total, it would be $60M. By itself, the $30M contract of price cannot replace an ace, a closer and hanRam. I agree with that, but I never said what he implied I said.

I replied directly to what you said. You need to state what you mean more clearly if you meant something else.

[a700hitter]

You're missing the point. .700 hitter made it seem like it was "impossible" to fill 3 needs with 30 million. Would anyone be "surprised" if Groome develops into an ace? Would anyone be "surprised" if the Sox develop a closer from within?

Well, if Groome will be the new ace in 2 years to replace Price -- a big IF, the $30 million would be redeployed for other need, but that is not what Moon said.

[moonslav59]

I replied directly to what you said. You need to state what you mean more clearly if you meant something else.

 

We were talking about being able to go about $30M over the luxury tax.

 

I never said the $30M would replace an ace, closer and another need. I said, "it would go a long way in replacing him [Price], a closer and another high need area...", which is not the same thing as saying $30M will fully pay for an ace, closer and more. Price may not be our ace in 2 years, so I never said getting an ace in my original post.

 

I thought I was being clear within the context of the discussion before the statement I responded to, but it would have helped if I mentioned the other $30M added in. You are right.

 

Also, if Price does not have a great 2 seasons before his "opting out", we may not actually need an ace, but more like a 3rd starter type, since Sale and Porcello would be our 1 & 2.

 

Then again, if Price does not do well, he probably won't opt out, because he won't make as much money by doing so.

Edited January 26, 2017 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

Then again, if Price does not do well, he probably won't opt out, because he won't make as much money by doing so.

 

This was my problem with this contract all along. If he pitches well we lose him and "get" to replace him, possibly at an even higher cost. The only way we get to keep him is if he stinks the place up for a couple of years and isn't worth what he's getting paid. What kind of a deal is that??

[Nick]

This was my problem with this contract all along. If he pitches well we lose him and "get" to replace him, possibly at an even higher cost. The only way we get to keep him is if he stinks the place up for a couple of years and isn't worth what he's getting paid. What kind of a deal is that??

 

I'm not sure in 2 years, there will be very many $30M contracts being handed out.....I just don't.

[a700hitter]

We were talking about being able to go about $30M over the luxury tax.

 

I never said the $30M would replace an ace, closer and another need. I said, "it would go a long way in replacing him [Price], a closer and another high need area...", which is not the same thing as saying $30M will fully pay for an ace, closer and more. Price may not be our ace in 2 years, so I never said getting an ace in my original post.

I already addressed this, and said that I disagree that the $30 million "would go a long way in replacing him, a closer and another high need area", and I disagree with that. I am not sure that it would even replace the ace.

 

I accept that you meant it in context with the Luxury cap discussion so that would add another $30 million. but that context was not in that post at all. And I did not take anything out of context or misread what you wrote. As usual, I was spot on.

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure in 2 years, there will be very many $30M contracts being handed out.....I just don't.

If the market will not bear $30 million for ace pitchers, then Price will not opt out.

[Bellhorn04]

This was my problem with this contract all along. If he pitches well we lose him and "get" to replace him, possibly at an even higher cost. The only way we get to keep him is if he stinks the place up for a couple of years and isn't worth what he's getting paid. What kind of a deal is that??

 

It was the deal that was necessary to get him to come to Boston.

[Nick]

It was the deal that was necessary to get him to come to Boston.

 

Exactly....and let's not forget, DD could NOT afford to PUSSYFOOT around at the time. Coming off 2 last place finishes, he was not going to let the details derail him. It was his MUST GET.

[dupree]

I just read that Ryan Howard was in search of a chance of a World Series Ring before he retires.

 

I know he's old 37 season upcoming, and his batting average and strike out are awful. But my question is with his power and LH swing would he take a 1 yr contact at low cost to get a chance to compete for a ring.

 

With all the questions of Pablo at 3rd and not knowing if Moreland will be able to let Hanley just be the DH then why not. It would be awesome if he would take a minor league contract with an invite to see how it goes. Could be a bust given, but could be a power LH bat we need at low cost.

[moonslav59]

Sale will probably get $30M starting in 2019. We'll still have Pablo & HanRam on the books that year (final year), so to me, he is the first priority.

 

Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly are FAs after 2018 as well, but thankfully by resetting the luxury tax this year, we can probably afford to go over in 2018 and 2019. The penalty limit is actually more important just going over the threshold, especially if it is just year one or two of going over.

 

My guess is, we may go over the luxury tax threshold by $20-29M in 2019, if we try to keep everybody and extend Bogey before his 2020 free agent season. This is where price's opt out would come in handy in one area, but replacing him would not be easy or cheap. We can dream that Groome can fill that role, or maybe Pom, ERod or Wright can become an solid #2 type, but if we have to go out and get a 1-2 starter via free agency, we will be restricted in filling other areas, unless we choose to blow past the threshold in 2019 and/or 2020.

[moonslav59]

I just read that Ryan Howard was in search of a chance of a World Series Ring before he retires.

 

I know he's old 37 season upcoming, and his batting average and strike out are awful. But my question is with his power and LH swing would he take a 1 yr contact at low cost to get a chance to compete for a ring.

 

With all the questions of Pablo at 3rd and not knowing if Moreland will be able to let Hanley just be the DH then why not. It would be awesome if he would take a minor league contract with an invite to see how it goes. Could be a bust given, but could be a power LH bat we need at low cost.

 

I have zero interest in RH. Even if we didn't have Moreland, I wouldn't want him.

[notin]

I read your words, and i disagree with them. You referred to Price and his $30 million annual salary without any other context in the post. I don't think that $30 will go a long way toward replacing an ace starter, a closer and another need. I think you would be lucky to get an ace starter for the $30 million, never mind two other needs.

 

Yes and no.

 

On the free agent market, Price alone cost in excess of $30mill. Its not very likely tje cost of one goes down much in the immediate future. But free agency is only one method of getting an ace. And really, not even the best one.

 

If the Sox can keep the farm even semi-respectable, a trade for an ace could procure one for far less. And could do so without all the unnecessary baggage in terms of years and bloated salary it takes to get an ace....

Edited January 26, 2017 by notin

[Nick]

Yes and no.

 

On the free agent market, Price alone cost in excess of $30mill. Its not very likely tje cost of one goes down much in the immediate future. But free agency is only one method of getting an ace. And really, not even the best one.

 

If the Sox can keep the farm even semi-respectable, a trade for an ace could procure one for far less. And could do so without all the unnecessary baggage in terms of years and bloated salary it takes to get an ace....

 

If we can win it all in 2017, then that's a game changer. We may then sit back and look long term.....or not.