A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Seems that way, but the Cubs and Guardians did have great SP'ing.

 

2016 ERA-

1) Cubs 71 (1st in WHIP/3rd in WAR)

2) TOR

3) WSH

4) NYM

5) SFG

6) BOS

7) CLE 95 (6th in WHIP/8th in WAR)

 

RP

7) CLE 5.0 WAR (8th in WHIP)

19) Cubs 3.2 WAR (5th in WHIP)

 

2015

SP

NYM 4th in WAR (4th in ERA-/3rd in WHIP)

KCR 23rd in WAR (18th in ERA-/25th in WHIP)

RP

KCR 3rd in WAR (2nd in WHIP)

NYM 12th in WAR (8th in WHIP)

 

 

It's notable, though, that the Guardians were able to succeed in spite of losing their #2 and #3 starters to injuries. It might have been harder for them if they had lost Andrew Miller instead.

[moonslav59]

It's notable, though, that the Guardians were able to succeed in spite of losing their #2 and #3 starters to injuries. It might have been harder for them if they had lost Andrew Miller instead.

 

True enough, and fine performances by Tomlin and Merritt helped too.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox, Drew Pomeranz Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2017 at 3:02pm CDT

 

The Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $4.45MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The two sides had the largest gulf between their filing figures (as shown in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker), with Pomeranz filing at $5.7MM and the Sox filing at $3.6MM. They’ll settle a bit south of the $4.65MM midpoint between those two sums.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox, Drew Pomeranz Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2017 at 3:02pm CDT

 

The Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $4.45MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The two sides had the largest gulf between their filing figures (as shown in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker), with Pomeranz filing at $5.7MM and the Sox filing at $3.6MM. They’ll settle a bit south of the $4.65MM midpoint between those two sums.

 

I'm completely SHOCKED that they basically met in the middle!

[moonslav59]

Updated Luxury Tax Budget Numbers

 

Guaranteed salaries AAV

David Price $31M, Hanley Ramirez $22M, Rick Porcello $20.63M, Pablo Sandoval $19M, Dustin Pedroia $13.3M, Craig Kimbrel $10.5M, Chris Sale $6.77M, Chris Young $6.5M, Mitch Moreland $5.5M [10 players-- $135.2M]

 

Arbitration

Xander Bogaerts $4.5M, Drew Pomeranz $4.45M, Jackie Bradley Jr. $3.6M, Joe Kelly $2.8M, Tyler Thornburg $2.05M, Robbie Ross Jr. $1.825M, Brock Holt $1.925M, Sandy Leon $1.3M, (pending) Fernando Abad ~$2.0M [9 players--$24M]

 

Team control pre-arbitration eligible (projected):

Mookie Betts $800,000, Steven Wright $650,000, Carson Smith $550,000, Christian Vazquez $550,000, Eduardo Rodriguez $550,000, Matt Barnes $550,000, Heath Hembree $550,000 [7 players--$4.2M]

 

Commitments

Major League: (AAV) $163.4M

Minor league: (40-man) $1.2M

Benefits: $13.5M

Total: $178.1M

 

Estimated Depth call-ups: $3.9M

Incentives $1M

 

Total $183M

 

Trades/midyear: $?????

 

Luxury tax threshold $195,000,000

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm completely SHOCKED that they basically met in the middle!

 

This case was one of the league's widest disparity between numbers submitted.

[moonslav59]

Abad is the only one remaining. The estimate is $2M, but I do not think we should pay that much.

[Nick]

Need a definitive answer on luxury tax computation...

 

I'm struggling with wording 'based on 40 man roster at year end". I realize that we are accountable for pro rated portion of players traded FOR. To me, if a player is traded 'out' of Sox, his salary should not count. Otherwise your year end computation is NOT based on your 40 man roster, but rather 41.

 

Cut to the chase. Was any part of Lester's salary counted towards Sox's competitive balance calculation when he was traded to the A's? No guesses please.

[Nick]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-evolving-luxury-tax/

 

This article is from 2015 but an interesting read.

 

1. Sox revenue is estimated at around $370M. Revenue has risen 40% vs 10% increase in payroll since 2004. Not feeling sorry for John.

2. I have no idea why the players agreed to the new CBA. Hell, none of us could have done a worse job negotiating.

3. If the Yankees are unwilling to splurge, what will be the driver to higher salaries?

Edited January 26, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Need a definitive answer on luxury tax computation...

 

I'm struggling with wording 'based on 40 man roster at year end". I realize that we are accountable for pro rated portion of players traded FOR. To me, if a player is traded 'out' of Sox, his salary should not count. Otherwise your year end computation is NOT based on your 40 man roster, but rather 41.

 

Cut to the chase. Was any part of Lester's salary counted towards Sox's competitive balance calculation when he was traded to the A's? No guesses please.

 

You could e-mail Alex Speier about it. I think he knows the tax rules as well as anybody. I've e-mailed him a couple of times and he's answered me.

 

alex.speier@globe.com

[Bellhorn04]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-evolving-luxury-tax/

 

This article is from 2015 but an interesting read.

 

1. Sox revenue is estimated at around $370M. Revenue has risen 40% vs 10% increase in payroll since 2004. Not feeling sorry for John.

2. I have no idea why the players agreed to the new CBA. Hell, none of us could have done a worse job negotiating.

3. If the Yankees are unwilling to splurge, what will be the driver to higher salaries?

 

It's a good question why the players accepted it. I guess they're feeling pretty fat and happy the way things are and didn't want to kill the golden goose.

[Nick]

You could e-mail Alex Speier about it. I think he knows the tax rules as well as anybody. I've e-mailed him a couple of times and he's answered me.

 

alex.speier@globe.com

 

Done, thanks

[Nick]

Updated Luxury Tax Budget Numbers

 

Guaranteed salaries AAV

David Price $31M, Hanley Ramirez $22M, Rick Porcello $20.63M, Pablo Sandoval $19M, Dustin Pedroia $13.3M, Craig Kimbrel $10.5M, Chris Sale $6.77M, Chris Young $6.5M, Mitch Moreland $5.5M [10 players-- $135.2M]

 

Arbitration

Xander Bogaerts $4.5M, Drew Pomeranz $4.45M, Jackie Bradley Jr. $3.6M, Joe Kelly $2.8M, Tyler Thornburg $2.05M, Robbie Ross Jr. $1.825M, Brock Holt $1.925M, Sandy Leon $1.3M, (pending) Fernando Abad ~$2.0M [9 players--$24M]

 

Team control pre-arbitration eligible (projected):

Mookie Betts $800,000, Steven Wright $650,000, Carson Smith $550,000, Christian Vazquez $550,000, Eduardo Rodriguez $550,000, Matt Barnes $550,000, Heath Hembree $550,000 [7 players--$4.2M]

 

Commitments

Major League: (AAV) $163.4M

Minor league: (40-man) $1.2M

Benefits: $13.5M

Total: $178.1M

 

Estimated Depth call-ups: $3.9M

Incentives $1M

 

Total $183M

 

Trades/midyear: $?????

 

Luxury tax threshold $195,000,000

 

 

 

cot's have it at $179M but close enough. I agree with you that DD wants the flexibility to add based on injury/upgrade at mid year. Perhaps if something is available on the cheap, he'll jump at it before the trade deadline. Meanwhile we reset the penalty % back to 0.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm happy with the so called 3 year window to chase the championship or two.

 

Year 4 and beyond...still doable... my premise is that $30M is the payroll ceiling due to luxury tax restrictions.

 

If you add Porcello, Sale, Pablo (gone), Hanley (gone) and Xander's estimated arb 3 salary, you get to approximately $90M.

 

That should be enough to sign Pocello, Sale and Xander. (Or we can forgo one of them and save it for Betts a year later).

 

This assumes Devers and Shaw are full time at corner infield positions. Maybe Dalbec is in the mix.

 

Maybe Chatam takes great strides at SS. (part with Xander). Or maybe Groome/E Rod is ready to become part of the Big 3 and we part with either Sale or Porcello.

 

I think we can keep this train going. I bet next CBA won't be owner friendly as this one. Luxury tax threadhhold GOT to be higher.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

cot's have it at $179M but close enough. I agree with you that DD wants the flexibility to add based on injury/upgrade at mid year. Perhaps if something is available on the cheap, he'll jump at it before the trade deadline. Meanwhile we reset the penalty % back to 0.

 

cots uses actual 2016 salary- not the average contract salary used for the luxury tax budget.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy with the so called 3 year window to chase the championship or two.

 

Year 4 and beyond...still doable... my premise is that $30M is the payroll ceiling due to luxury tax restrictions.

 

If you add Porcello, Sale, Pablo (gone), Hanley (gone) and Xander's estimated arb 3 salary, you get to approximately $90M.

 

That should be enough to sign Pocello, Sale and Xander. (Or we can forgo one of them and save it for Betts a year later).

 

This assumes Devers and Shaw are full time at corner infield positions. Maybe Dalbec is in the mix.

 

Maybe Chatam takes great strides at SS. (part with Xander). Or maybe Groome/E Rod is ready to become part of the Big 3 and we part with either Sale or Porcello.

 

I think we can keep this train going. I bet next CBA won't be owner friendly as this one. Luxury tax threadhhold GOT to be higher.

 

Arb costs for Betts, JBJ, ERod and others will be rising as well, so I'm not sure just how many of our stars we can keep. Losing Pablo & HanRam will help, but we will really need Devers and Travis to be productive to not lose too much ground. Maybe what plus Devers might give us over Pablo & Co. will outweigh the loss of Ramirez.

 

We have to hope most of these guys: Beni, Devers, Travis, Vaz-Swi and others can give us top quality production at a lower cost, so we can keep Porcello, Sale, Bogey and eventually Betts & JBJ. My guess is, we'll lose one of those 5, which may not be the end of the world.

[Nick]

cots uses actual 2016 salary- not the average contract salary used for the luxury tax budget.

 

Not entirey true....Chris Sale is calculated at $6.5M even though his actual salary is $12M for 2016......but let's not argue over couple of millions...I've always trusted your numbers...better than anyone else here.

[Nick]

Arb costs for Betts, JBJ, ERod and others will be rising as well, so I'm not sure just how many of our stars we can keep. Losing Pablo & HanRam will help, but we will really need Devers and Travis to be productive to not lose too much ground. Maybe what plus Devers might give us over Pablo & Co. will outweigh the loss of Ramirez.

 

We have to hope most of these guys: Beni, Devers, Travis, Vaz-Swi and others can give us top quality production at a lower cost, so we can keep Porcello, Sale, Bogey and eventually Betts & JBJ. My guess is, we'll lose one of those 5, which may not be the end of the world.

 

I hope you are right....I've ignored Young, Moreland and Kimbrel thinking their salaries will get eaten up by arbitration raises, etc.

 

Reality is that some of our younger kids will have to come through and/or we will just have to live with unproductive spot or two. Can't have it all.

 

But keeping Price, Porcello and Sale to anchor our starting rotation will go long ways from us finishing dead last.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Not entirey true....Chris Sale is calculated at $6.5M even though his actual salary is $12M for 2016......but let's not argue over couple of millions...I've always trusted your numbers...better than anyone else here.

 

I just looked- you're right. That's weird, because they have Pedey at $15M- his 2017 salary- not his average salary.

[moonslav59]

I hope you are right....I've ignored Young, Moreland and Kimbrel thinking their salaries will get eaten up by arbitration raises, etc.

 

Reality is that some of our younger kids will have to come through and/or we will just have to live with unproductive spot or two. Can't have it all.

 

But keeping Price, Porcello and Sale to anchor our starting rotation will go long ways from us finishing dead last.

 

We really only have a couple of prospects that look to have a legitimate chance at being significant impact players on the big club over the next 2-3 years: Devers & Travis. We are fortunate those two play positions we will need to fill in two to three years from now. Who will replace Kimbrel? Smith, Hembree or Kelly???

 

I'd say keeping Betts is just as important as keeping the big 3 SP'ers.

 

[Nick]

We really only have a couple of prospects that look to have a legitimate chance at being significant impact players on the big club over the next 2-3 years: Devers & Travis. We are fortunate those two play positions we will need to fill in two to three years from now. Who will replace Kimbrel? Smith, Hembree or Kelly???

 

I'd say keeping Betts is just as important as keeping the big 3 SP'ers.

 

 

I agree......I'd almost hand him a blank check. He's our franchise player. I'd want him and Sale. It really wouldn't be a bad thing for Price to opt out but I doubt that's happening unless he's miserable playing for the Sox. I only say that because Porcello and Sale are much younger.

 

I could live with Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright with Groome waiting in the wings in four years.

[Nick]

I just looked- you're right. That's weird, because they have Pedey at $15M- his 2017 salary- not his average salary.

 

Maybe they changed it....it shows him at $13.75M. $110M/8 yrs.

[Eddy Ballgame]

We really only have a couple of prospects that look to have a legitimate chance at being significant impact players on the big club over the next 2-3 years: Devers & Travis. We are fortunate those two play positions we will need to fill in two to three years from now. Who will replace Kimbrel? Smith, Hembree or Kelly???

 

I'd say keeping Betts is just as important as keeping the big 3 SP'ers.

 

 

Most relief pitchers are unpredictable from one year to the next, so trying to predict who will be part of the bullpen 2 or 3 years from now is an exercise in futility. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the bullpen in September looks very different than the one that breaks camp to open this season.

[mvp 78]

Most relief pitchers are unpredictable from one year to the next, so trying to predict who will be part of the bullpen 2 or 3 years from now is an exercise in futility. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the bullpen in September looks very different than the one that breaks camp to open this season.

 

I worry about the pen game to game not year to year. If Hembree or Kelly flamed out of the league in the next 2 years, I don't think it would be all that surprising.

[moonslav59]

I agree......I'd almost hand him a blank check. He's our franchise player. I'd want him and Sale. It really wouldn't be a bad thing for Price to opt out but I doubt that's happening unless he's miserable playing for the Sox. I only say that because Porcello and Sale are much younger.

 

I could live with Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright with Groome waiting in the wings in four years.

 

Well said, and the $30M freed up from Price leaving would go a long way towards replacing him, our closer or any other high need area.

[moonslav59]

Most relief pitchers are unpredictable from one year to the next, so trying to predict who will be part of the bullpen 2 or 3 years from now is an exercise in futility. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the bullpen in September looks very different than the one that breaks camp to open this season.

 

Very true, but we do need to think we might need to acquire a closer once Kimbrel's contract is up.

[moonslav59]

Maybe they changed it....it shows him at $13.75M. $110M/8 yrs.

 

That's so weird! I just looked again and it says $12.0M (which is his 2017 salary).

[a700hitter]

Well said, and the $30M freed up from Price leaving would go a long way towards replacing him, our closer or any other high need area.

You are going to replace Price with an ace, a closer and another need for $30 million/year? Good luck.

[Nick]

Apparently Hector Mendoza from Cuba becomes available as soon as he turns 23, thus avoiding the international amateur draft. Plus the money won't count towards hard cap.

 

We have the money...$370M in revenue. It's only money.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Very true, but we do need to think we might need to acquire a closer once Kimbrel's contract is up.

 

We won't necessarily need to spend big money on a closer when and if Kimbrel leaves. They could develop one from the farm, one could emerge from the current staff at the time, they could trade for a young inexpensive reliever who isn't a closer yet. There are so many different possibilities, which is why it's not something that can be "projected." Every year old closers fade and new ones develop. It's just impossible to predict.