A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Don't forget Kimbrel has $13M club option after 2017 season. My feeling is that he's a DD guy and his option will be picked up, UNLESS SMITH, THORNBURG AND KELLY goes nuts in 2017.

 

At today's relief pitcher prices, Kimbrel's $13M option should be a "no brainer", unless he really sucks this year or get hurt badly.

 

Kimbrel's luxury tax raise will not be as significant as Sale's.

 

Kimbrel's lux# goes from $11.5M to $13M.

 

Sale's lux# goes from $6.5M to $12.5M in 2018 and $13.5M in 2019.

 

Together, it's $8M more in 2018.

 

Add the arb raises, and we'll see all of the $14M money saved by losing Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M & Abad $2M eaten up pretty quickly--and then some!

 

Hence the strong need to reset the tax rate this winter.

 

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.

[notin]

At today's relief pitcher prices, Kimbrel's $13M option should be a "no brainer", unless he really sucks this year or get hurt badly.

 

Kimbrel's luxury tax raise will not be as significant as Sale's.

 

Kimbrel's lux# goes from $11.5M to $13M.

 

Sale's lux# goes from $6.5M to $12.5M in 2018 and $13.5M in 2019.

 

Together, it's $8M more in 2018.

 

Add the arb raises, and we'll see all of the $14M money saved by losing Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M & Abad $2M eaten up pretty quickly--and then some!

 

Hence the strong need to reset the tax rate this winter.

 

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.

 

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

[a700hitter]

It shows how much the market changed in a year that people are now referring to Kimbrel's contract as a bargain.

[moonslav59]

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

 

I've always been very high on Hembree- maybe undeservedly so.

 

I agree on C Smith. He's no sure bet, even if he gets himself 100% healthy.

[Nick]

Trading HanRam and/or Pablo next winter may become an option.

 

Exactly...I'm just pointing out that someone MAY EMERGE during 2017. And THAT may allow Sox to trade off a piece or two to position themselves to sign current players as they become FA. It will become a cluster f*** eventually. Possibly winning a world championship along the way will keep us all fully engaged.

 

I also suspect that couple of players will receive ridiculous offers that Sox won't be able to match in three years. Winning in 2017/18 becomes critical.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Nick

[harmony]

Not only is Kimbrel a no-brainer at that price, barring injury, but I'm not as quick to anoint Smith as any sort of heir apparent. He's coming off an injury and didn't have a lengthy record of success prior. Hembree is just as likely to impress next season...

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August.

 

Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines:

 

CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR

SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2.

 

Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

Edited January 3, 2017 by harmony

[Nick]

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August.

 

Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines:

 

CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR

SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2.

 

Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

 

Thanks for the input......amazing how fans are closed mind to 'possibilities'.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the input......amazing how fans are closed mind to 'possibilities'.

 

There were a lot of options the winter we traded 4 prospects for a RP'er making close to FA market money.

[notin]

There were a lot of options the winter we traded 4 prospects for a RP'er making close to FA market money.

 

Kimbrel was a Nike sneaker. No different than a dozen off-brands, but at multiple times the cost...

[jacksonianmarch]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

[harmony]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

Those salaries do not count against the luxury tax threshold because each player was outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers:

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/6/20/11979314/red-sox-rusney-castillo-waivers-trade-budget

[harmony]

A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract:

 

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/finding-home-10-best-remaining-free-agents/

 

That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

[moonslav59]

Craig's 11mil does count as does Rusney's contract. You don't get out from under those contractual lux tax implications by outrighting someone.

 

Only players on the 40 man roster count, unless you trade someone and pay part of their salary.

[moonslav59]

A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract:

 

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/finding-home-10-best-remaining-free-agents/

 

That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

 

I doubt we eat up that much flex spending room for Plouffe.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel was a Nike sneaker. No different than a dozen off-brands, but at multiple times the cost...

 

They got the "best" available closer on paper at the time, but my argument was that we paid a hefty price twice: one in too many good prospects and two in "near FA market cost". The cost has gone up dramatically since then, but there a lot of options that winter.

 

Free agent signings (not all did so well, but neither did CK):

D O'Day $31M/4

R Madson $22M/3

T Clippard $12.25M/2

S Cishek $10M/2

T Cahill $4.25M/1

N Feliz $3.9M/1

J Broxton $7.5M/2

F Rodney $2M/1

 

Trades:

J Benoit for Enyrl de los Santos & Nelson Ward

K Rod for Javier Betancourt & Manny Pena

Pomeranz & Jose Torres for Yonder Alonso, M Rzepczynski & Jabari Blash

D storen for Ben Revere

K Giles for V Velasquez, B Oberholtzer, M Appel, H Arauz, T Eshelman

A Chapman fotr Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Caleb Cotham & Tony Renda

 

[notin]

They got the "best" available closer on paper at the time, but my argument was that we paid a hefty price twice: one in too many good prospects and two in "near FA market cost". The cost has gone up dramatically since then, but there a lot of options that winter.

 

Free agent signings (not all did so well, but neither did CK):

D O'Day $31M/4

R Madson $22M/3

T Clippard $12.25M/2

S Cishek $10M/2

T Cahill $4.25M/1

N Feliz $3.9M/1

J Broxton $7.5M/2

F Rodney $2M/1

 

Trades:

J Benoit for Enyrl de los Santos & Nelson Ward

K Rod for Javier Betancourt & Manny Pena

Pomeranz & Jose Torres for Yonder Alonso, M Rzepczynski & Jabari Blash

D storen for Ben Revere

K Giles for V Velasquez, B Oberholtzer, M Appel, H Arauz, T Eshelman

A Chapman fotr Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Caleb Cotham & Tony Renda

 

 

The Chapman cost looks light, but it was in the aftermath of his domestic violence incident. The Dodgers were prepared to give up more for him before that.

 

But many of the others were viable alternatives. Kimbrel was the biggest name. At the time (and this was bbefore signing Price), starting pitching looked like the bigger need and going in so heavily on a closer looked foolish and naive. The Sox had bigger issues in innings 1 thru 8 than in the ninth.

 

But fans love closers, despite their inability to create wins. That's the nature of the role. When DDombrowski went in so big on Kimbrel, the big question was "will this team have enough leads to protect for one inning?"

[Bellhorn04]

The Chapman cost looks light, but it was in the aftermath of his domestic violence incident. The Dodgers were prepared to give up more for him before that.

 

But many of the others were viable alternatives. Kimbrel was the biggest name. At the time (and this was bbefore signing Price), starting pitching looked like the bigger need and going in so heavily on a closer looked foolish and naive. The Sox had bigger issues in innings 1 thru 8 than in the ninth.

 

But fans love closers, despite their inability to create wins. That's the nature of the role. When DDombrowski went in so big on Kimbrel, the big question was "will this team have enough leads to protect for one inning?"

 

Is it really just fans who love closers? Theo Epstein was certainly willing to pay a hefty price for a rental of Chapman.

[moonslav59]

Is it really just fans who love closers? Theo Epstein was certainly willing to pay a hefty price for a rental of Chapman.

 

The Yanks seemingly ended up getting more for Chapman than they gave up to get him.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks seemingly ended up getting more for Chapman than they gave up to get him.

 

No question about that. Their acquisition costs reflected a hefty Domestic Incident Discount.

[moonslav59]

No question about that. Their acquisition costs reflected a hefty Domestic Incident Discount.

 

...and there trade of him alter reflects how quickly things are blown over. Of course, when they got him, there were some doubts about suspensions or charges.

[Spudboy]

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August.

 

Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines:

 

CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR

SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2.

 

Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

 

So essentially the Sox spent foolishly on a wild closer.

[Bellhorn04]

Kimbrel had an off-season for sure. Welcome to Boston-itis? Seems to be a lot of that with pitchers.

 

From 2011 to 2014 he was probably the best in the game.

 

Can't really fault DD for targeting him...the cost is another matter.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel had an off-season for sure. Welcome to Boston-itis? Seems to be a lot of that with pitchers.

 

From 2011 to 2014 he was probably the best in the game.

 

Can't really fault DD for targeting him...the cost is another matter.

 

I had argued that we could have easily traded for KRod and signed Clippard, and maybe we'd have done just as well with those two instead of Kimbrel. The cost in money would have been close, but we'd have been able to keep Margot & Guerra for a later trade (maybe those two for Pom not Espi for Pom). It's easy in hindsight, but I hated the CK trade at the time.

 

In all fairness, I also mentioned D Day or Benoit as possibilities, and they were disasters.

[notin]

Is it really just fans who love closers? Theo Epstein was certainly willing to pay a hefty price for a rental of Chapman.

 

Absolutely fans love closers, especially closers who give great radar gun readings.

 

Did Epstein go in so heavily because he wanted a closer? Or was he trying to get one of the best available players to end a 108 year drought?

[moonslav59]

Absolutely fans love closers, especially closers who give great radar gun readings.

 

Did Epstein go in so heavily because he wanted a closer? Or was he trying to get one of the best available players to end a 108 year drought?

 

All three. He wanted a closer, he wanted to end the drought and he knew the fans would be happier.

 

It's no coincidence that the three rings we have were all in years with superior closer performances.

[moonslav59]

Drew Storen signs for $3M with a chance at $1.5M in incentive.

 

Missed opportunity or better fish on the horizon?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Drew Storen signs for $3M with a chance at $1.5M in incentive.

 

Missed opportunity or better fish on the horizon?

 

He very likely was looking for the best opportunity to close games and I'm sure his agent let teams know that. He's still young enough to re-establish himself.

 

Boston definitely wasn't a great place to do that, so I don't think it was any kind of "missed opportunity." He also has incentives tied to finishing games in Cincinnati.

[moonslav59]

He very likely was looking for the best opportunity to close games and I'm sure his agent let teams know that. He's still young enough to re-establish himself.

 

Boston definitely wasn't a great place to do that, so I don't think it was any kind of "missed opportunity." He also has incentives tied to finishing games in Cincinnati.

 

Can't blame him. If he has a great season as a closer, he'll be a very rich man.

[notin]

Drew Storen signs for $3M with a chance at $1.5M in incentive.

 

Missed opportunity or better fish on the horizon?

 

He wouldn't have added any depth, so it comes down to whether or not he's an upgrade over Hembree. And if he is one, would he have been enough of one to justify losing luxury tax wiggle room?

[Nick]

He wouldn't have added any depth, so it comes down to whether or not he's an upgrade over Hembree. And if he is one, would he have been enough of one to justify losing luxury tax wiggle room?

 

Resounding NO to Drew Storen at $3M. Develop some of our young players fro God's sake.