A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

Our pen is not so full of great pitchers that it wouldn't be significantly improved by adding Wright or Pomeranz. There is zero chance ERod starts the year in AAA, unless he's in a horrible funk or recovering from an injury sustained in ST'ing.

 

Wright or Pom are better than anyone in our pen, except for Kimbrel and Thornburg.

 

We're not sending ERod to AAA not only because he's too valuable, but because keeping Abad or Hembree on the roster is not that important.

 

Even with the trade of Buch, spring training still becomes significant. I also think that if he is healthy there is no way E-Rod is sent back but the spring work is going to help sort out how we fill out the starting pitching situation.

[OH FOY]

Not in favor of a Knuckler coming out of BP in tight situations, or close games. 1 walk, stolen base, pass ball, you can score a deciding run without the benefit of a hit.

Long relief, if a game is out of hand, to save innings more like it for me. Otherwise I rather Start him, to get his feel for the Pitch, you can almost tell if a Knuckler has it or not, to see if he should continue.

[cp176]

The game where teams hold players back for a variety of reasons all the time? Just a guess.

 

The whole "best players make the team" does work for Little League. But - and this is not condoning it, but a fact of MLB - contracts and control rule the Show.

 

The Sox chose not to demote but Rodriguez, but if they did do it (and they still might depending how the off-season plays out) it would be to keep control of as many players as possible. This kind of thing happens all the time with all 30 teams.

 

It was the reason for the overblown Tommy LaStella Retirement Threat last season. (Maybe that wasn't as big of a deal in Boston as it was here in Chicago. If so, apologies for the hopefully not obscure reference.)

 

I really don't think that it is a stretch to say that in most cases, teams tend to play their best players. Those that for some reason choose to not play their best, might not win as often. I'm not saying that it can't happen, but it would seem very unlikely and unusual to me that if E-Rod is healthy and well and throwing better than the other two this spring, that he would get sent back. It would seem even more unusual now that DD seems to be a "win now" mode.

[S5Dewey]

Probably true, but the off-season is still young. Untold bargains are sometimes found in January. As are crazy impulsive decisions

 

Bear in mind our decision-maker for the team is a guy who once lost a 33 year old DH for one season, and in order to replace him, signed Prince Fielder to a 9 year $214mill contract. And he signed Fielder to that deal on JANUARY 26, long after everyone else had given up bidding on Fielder.

 

So who knows? Maybe in mid-January Dombrowski, out of sheer boredom, inks Tyson Ross or Jon Niese or Ivan Nova or whoever to a 1 year $5mill deal just to break up the ennui.

 

Yes. This is exactly why I believe we traded Buch too soon.

 

It does raise a question with me. When to player's contracts start and end? Are they structured to begin on January 1 of the year? Do they begin at the start of ST? Or some other date certain with each player's contract date being different?

 

It matters (a little) because as in the case of Buch, if his contract starts on Jan. 1 and we traded him on June 30 we'd owe him ~$6.7M which would count toward our LT, but if his contract starts on.... say.... April 1, we'd only owe him ~$3.4M. That $3.4 million difference could be very significant if we're bumping up against the LT ceiling.

[notin]

I really don't think that it is a stretch to say that in most cases, teams tend to play their best players. Those that for some reason choose to not play their best, might not win as often. I'm not saying that it can't happen, but it would seem very unlikely and unusual to me that if E-Rod is healthy and well and throwing better than the other two this spring, that he would get sent back. It would seem even more unusual now that DD seems to be a "win now" mode.

 

Well, were the 2015 Cubs in "win now" mode when they kept Kris Bryant down for 10 weeks? They certainly didn't do it because they thought opening day third baseman Mike Olt was the better player.

 

Teams do this kind of thing all the time, and some who don't sometimes find they should have. For example, if the Nationals were dead set on sticking to an innings limit on then rookie Stephen Strasburg, would it have made sense to wait until June to bring him up and have him for the post-season? Or were they right shutting him down prematurely and going into the post-season with Ross Detwiler making starts in the NLDS?

[mvp 78]

The guys we risk losing are 1 or possibly two from these out of options pitchers: Abad, Hembree & Elias.

 

I'd rather put Barnes or Ross in AAA, if we really felt we needed to keep all three of them. Even Kelly has an option left and might be a better choice than ERod.

 

Ross is better than Barnes, Abad, Hembree and Elias..

[mvp 78]

Wright is the 6th starter, imo. I'm not the biggest ERod fan, but I'd rather have him be a starter than Wright. My guess is that one of the starters will be injured in April/May and Wright will get a ton of opportunities to get into the rotation.

[SoxnCycles]

think Eduardo is one of our best 5 starters as well, both now and going forward...I just don't think he's separated himself enough from the other two guys at this point that it's ridiculous to even talk about.

 

Yup, I think everyone sees Eduardo's potential.

He just hasn't been consistent enough yet.

[mvp 78]

think Eduardo is one of our best 5 starters as well, both now and going forward...I just don't think he's separated himself enough from the other two guys at this point that it's ridiculous to even talk about.

 

I don't think it's ridiculous to talk about.

 

Things that are ridiculous: DFA Sale, Price or Porcello. Trade Betts. Beni should start the season in AAA. Kimbrel should become a starter.

[Jack Flap]

I think Eduardo is one of our best 5 starters as well, both now and going forward...I just don't think he's separated himself enough from the other two guys at this point that it's ridiculous to even talk about.

 

(Reposting because the mobile version of this site keeps deleting my post when I go to edit it..? Sorry.)

[mvp 78]

I think Eduardo is one of our best 5 starters as well, both now and going forward...I just don't think he's separated himself enough from the other two guys at this point that it's ridiculous to even talk about.

 

(Reposting because the mobile version of this site keeps deleting my post when I go to edit it..? Sorry.)

 

The mistake is in using the mobile version of the site. Even on my phone, I use the full version.

[Jack Flap]

I don't think it's ridiculous to talk about.

 

Things that are ridiculous: DFA Sale, Price or Porcello. Trade Betts. Beni should start the season in AAA. Kimbrel should become a starter.

 

Yeah, I wasn't referring to your post, but some of the earlier ones. Someone called it stupid and dumb a page or two back.

[Jack Flap]

The mistake is in using the mobile version of the site. Even on my phone, I use the full version.

 

Sound advice.

[cp176]

Well, were the 2015 Cubs in "win now" mode when they kept Kris Bryant down for 10 weeks? They certainly didn't do it because they thought opening day third baseman Mike Olt was the better player.

 

Teams do this kind of thing all the time, and some who don't sometimes find they should have. For example, if the Nationals were dead set on sticking to an innings limit on then rookie Stephen Strasburg, would it have made sense to wait until June to bring him up and have him for the post-season? Or were they right shutting him down prematurely and going into the post-season with Ross Detwiler making starts in the NLDS?

 

I guess you proved your point. Teams do sometimes do this. I think that it always is debateable whether it is the right call or not. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they don't. I'm not sure that it happens all the time but I do realize that it happens.

[moonslav59]

I don't know why some are acting like this is such a black-and-white decision. Assuming everyone is healthy and looks strong in camp, would starting Wright and Pomeranz (both All-Stars in 2016) over Rodriguez out of the gate really be so indefensible?

 

Pretty close, in my mind, because of the pen. Wright or Pom in the pen greatly improves it.

 

ERod in AAA does nothing for our pen, except to maybe allow us to hold onto Abad or Hembree, which is nothing a creative DL can't handle.

 

Pom & Wright both have pen experience and could provide long and middle relief like nobody else in our pen, except maybe Kelly, but I think grooming him for the 7th or 8th inning set-up man makes more sense. However, if we are going to view Kelly as a possible spot starter and use him as the long man to start the year, I guess starting ERod in AAA could happen. I still think he'd have to be struggling in ST'ing for that to even be a consideration.

 

Just my opinion.

[moonslav59]

Not in favor of a Knuckler coming out of BP in tight situations, or close games. 1 walk, stolen base, pass ball, you can score a deciding run without the benefit of a hit.

Long relief, if a game is out of hand, to save innings more like it for me. Otherwise I rather Start him, to get his feel for the Pitch, you can almost tell if a Knuckler has it or not, to see if he should continue.

 

That's why I have Wright as the 5th starter and Pom in the pen, but we could use Wright mostly to start innings in relief.

 

As for the fear of Wright walking too many guys, ERod walked more last year per inning and Pom was pretty close.

 

Pom 3.1

Wright 3.3

ERod 3.4

Buch 3.6

 

While I agree a WP, PB or SB might be more common with Wright, opponents getting a hit is less common (H/9):

 

7.8 Porcello

7.9 Wright

8.3 ERod

8.4 Buch

8.9 Price

9.2 Pom w BOS (7.2 overall)

 

BTW, on SBs:

 

vs Wright 8 (4 CS) in 656 PAs by opponents.

vs ERod 2 (2 CS) in 458 PAs

vs POM 3 (3 CS) in 292 PAs

 

Wright's 67% SB rate is not much higher than the team's 64%.

 

Porcello was worse with 7 SB and 3 CS (70%)

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Yes. This is exactly why I believe we traded Buch too soon.

 

It does raise a question with me. When to player's contracts start and end? Are they structured to begin on January 1 of the year? Do they begin at the start of ST? Or some other date certain with each player's contract date being different?

 

It matters (a little) because as in the case of Buch, if his contract starts on Jan. 1 and we traded him on June 30 we'd owe him ~$6.7M which would count toward our LT, but if his contract starts on.... say.... April 1, we'd only owe him ~$3.4M. That $3.4 million difference could be very significant if we're bumping up against the LT ceiling.

 

I think for luxury tax purposes, the season starts on opening day and ends on the last day of the regular season.

 

I think the reason we chose to trade Buch now, was that we found someone willing to pay his whole contract, and waiting might have risked seeing him get hurt and us losing any chance to trade him later.

 

I think the roster flex space gained was a huge value gain for our team.

 

Enormous!

 

[moonslav59]

Ross is better than Barnes, Abad, Hembree and Elias..

 

Yes, I agree, but I think ERod is better than Ross, and that was the point I was making. Rather than send ERod down to AAA, because he has an option and we could keep more players around, I'd prefer to send down Barnes or Ross, if keeping Abad and Hembree around is the goal.

[moonslav59]

Wright is the 6th starter, imo. I'm not the biggest ERod fan, but I'd rather have him be a starter than Wright. My guess is that one of the starters will be injured in April/May and Wright will get a ton of opportunities to get into the rotation.

 

I like Wright as the starter over Pom, but it is very close.

 

I like how a knuckler messes with the opponent's hitters- sometimes for more than 1 game afterwards.

[moonslav59]

Yup, I think everyone sees Eduardo's potential.

He just hasn't been consistent enough yet.

 

True, and neither have Wright and Pom.

[moonslav59]

Well, were the 2015 Cubs in "win now" mode when they kept Kris Bryant down for 10 weeks? They certainly didn't do it because they thought opening day third baseman Mike Olt was the better player.

 

Teams do this kind of thing all the time, and some who don't sometimes find they should have. For example, if the Nationals were dead set on sticking to an innings limit on then rookie Stephen Strasburg, would it have made sense to wait until June to bring him up and have him for the post-season? Or were they right shutting him down prematurely and going into the post-season with Ross Detwiler making starts in the NLDS?

 

Your point is well taken, but I don't think ERod will be on an innings limit this year, so the only purpose for starting ERod in AA, apart from him sucking in ST'ing, would be to allow us to keep out-of-options pitchers like ABad or Hembree.

 

Sending Barnes or Ross down could accomplish the same goal.

 

ERod> Barnes

ERod> Ross

 

In my opinion: ERod> Wright & Pom

[mvp 78]

Yes, I agree, but I think ERod is better than Ross, and that was the point I was making. Rather than send ERod down to AAA, because he has an option and we could keep more players around, I'd prefer to send down Barnes or Ross, if keeping Abad and Hembree around is the goal.

 

Keeping Abad instead of Barnes, Ross or ERod is a weird goal, imo.

[mvp 78]

I like Wright as the starter over Pom, but it is very close.

 

I like how a knuckler messes with the opponent's hitters- sometimes for more than 1 game afterwards.

 

I just think Pom showed that he has a ton of upside as a starter last year. I'd give him another shot to see if the first half was a fluke. If it doesn't work out, he can go to the pen.

[mvp 78]

Your point is well taken, but I don't think ERod will be on an innings limit this year, so the only purpose for starting ERod in AA, apart from him sucking in ST'ing, would be to allow us to keep out-of-options pitchers like ABad or Hembree.

 

Sending Barnes or Ross down could accomplish the same goal.

 

ERod> Barnes

ERod> Ross

 

In my opinion: ERod> Wright & Pom

 

Was he on an innings limit last year?

[cp176]

I think that it is going to be interesting to see how they do use Pomeranz and Wright. Wright was literally lights out before the injury and Pomeranz is a big young kid with plenty of potential. I hate the idea of using a knuckle baller in the bullpen although it has been done before. I would also like to see Pomeranz get a shot at starting.

I have very little confidence in Kelly. I wish we had one more bullpen arm not named Wright or Pomeranz.

[S5Dewey]

So let's look at the pitching staff as it sits. Assuming we go with 12 pitchers we have...

 

3 starters with their spots locked up:

 

1) Sale

2) Price

3) Porcillo

Now we need two more to fill out the rotation

 

3 Relievers with their spots locked up

 

1) Kimbrel

2) Smith (when he comes back)

3) Thornburg

 

That’s six and it leaves us needing two starters and four relievers from Pomeranz, Wright, Barnes, Abad, Elias, Hembree, Kelly, ERod, Ross, & Scott, not to mention a plethora of other guys like Noe Ramirez. After we pick those six out we’re left with four more pretty good pitchers whom we don’t have a home for out of the ones I listed, plus the plethora.

 

My guess is that one of Pom, Wright, & Erod won’t be listed among the starters, so where does that person go and, with the TOR set and the last three innings set, where does he get to pitch? And wherever he pitches he occupies a BP slot leaving only three of the remaining seven + with the Sox.

 

Can you spell “LOGJAM”?

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

[mvp 78]

So let's look at the pitching staff as it sits. Assuming we go with 12 pitchers we have...

 

3 starters with their spots locked up:

 

1) Sale

2) Price

3) Porcillo

Now we need two more to fill out the rotation

 

3 Relievers with their spots locked up

 

1) Kimbrel

2) Smith (when he comes back)

3) Thornburg

 

That’s six and it leaves us needing two starters and four relievers from Pomeranz, Wright, Barnes, Abad, Elias, Hembree, Kelly, ERod, Ross, & Scott, not to mention a plethora of other guys like Noe Ramirez. After we pick those six out we’re left with four more pretty good pitchers whom we don’t have a home for out of the ones I listed, plus the plethora.

 

My guess is that one of Pom, Wright, & Erod won’t be listed among the starters, so where does that person go and, with the TOR set and the last three innings set, where does he get to pitch? And wherever he pitches he occupies a BP slot leaving only three of the remaining seven + with the Sox.

 

Can you spell “LOGJAM”?

 

If you only have 12 pitchers on opening day, you're f***ed.

[Eddy Ballgame]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

 

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

 

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

[S5Dewey]

If you only have 12 pitchers on opening day, you're f***ed.

 

Why? There are two days off in the first two weeks. Would you suggest starting the year with a six man rotation? Or would you add one more to the pen?

 

But.. ok. If we go with 13 pitchers we still have the same problem, only we do get to add one more from the four homeless ones - but he may very well not see any innings.